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Are More Lockdowns Threatening To Crash The Stock Market? (EW)Based on Elliott Wave/NeoWave analysis, the S&P has just broken down from the critical support level and wave-B should be ending now, which means we could begin collapse back towards below the March 2020 lows around 2200. Starting in Feb 2020, we are likely in an expanding or neutral triangle, and wave-C should be bigger than wave-A. Wave-C could last anywhere from 2-4 months, maybe even faster, and could go as low as 2000-2100! With Europe gearing up for stricter lockdowns and the S&P breaking critical support levels, it seems likely that we've begun the next wave down. This will likely drag other markets down as well including crypto, oil, gold, bonds, etc. One of the only things that was strong during the last lockdown was the Dollar. When people can't work they need to sell their assets to pay their bills which causes a short-term liquidity crisis and a strong demand for dollars. Until there's more bailouts, we're likely to see a violent crash that could be worse than February-March as many businesses and individuals are now in a much worse financial position than they were during the first lockdown. Be prepared for chaos over the next few months, especially with the election coming up. As mentioned in previous posts, it seems likely that Trump will win the election, which could give a short-term boost to the market but not likely enough to save us from the lockdown crash. There will probably have to be very large bailouts and a reopening of the economy before we can fully recover from this, and we could see more riots, shortages, and general unrest. There will also probably be more stimulus checks handed out to people at some point. Most likely crypto and gold will recover much faster than other markets as people will be using them to hedge all the money printing and debt the government will be taking on to get us out of this mess that they created.
TVC:SPXShort
by Intuit
24
$SPX #SP500 New all-time highs on Vaccine ProgressLast week I've tried to post this chart, but then I switched off and forgot. As usual, I prefer to keep every single line and details on it. Pfizer and BioNTech announced positive efficacy results from their Phase 3, late-stage study of a potential COVID-19 vaccine. The vaccine candidate was found to be more than 90% effective in preventing COVID-19 in participants without evidence of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection in the first interim efficacy analysis. The results demonstrate that the vaccine can help prevent COVID-19 in the majority of people who receive it. This means one step closer to potentially providing people around the world with a much-needed breakthrough to help bring an end to this global pandemic. This is a first but critical step to deliver a safe and effective vaccine, but again "one step closer" in the testing process. In fundamental terms, nothing new. We've seen positive expectations that are currently driving the markets but the reality is we have no clue if our expectations will be met with reality after all. However, Mr Joe Biden won this election and statistics show the first years of Presidential terms the S&P500 has average gains of 18.6% since 1986, so maybe we have very good news ahead and actually, I do believe the markets are sharply higher because of Biden and Vaccine, and more because of Biden than the vaccine, at the end of the day, whether Biden has a successful plan or not, such a plan is better than nothing or an expected vaccine only, which is many months ahead. The uncertainty isn't over yet, Trump won't concede, perhaps has a card hidden under a sleeve (watermark). In Technicals, the S&P500 broke a nice triangle with an initial reaction (BO) running for new all-time highs but this year we used to see thousands of fake BO, so it won't be rare if the price comes back into the triangle, however, the triangle shapes 388 points that could lead other 388 points up or down. Odds and targets: Long, target 1: 3,677, target 2: 3,910 / 4,000 points. Short, tartget 1: 3,444, target 2: 3,323, target 3: 2,909. Have a good and profitable trading week. Creamlivetrading
TVC:SPX
by wildcreamlife
SPY Retesting Original Channel, ShortI have noticed many folks on here adjusting the channel that SPY is in a bit too frequently. If we draw the original channel that we moved upwards in, it becomes more clear that SPY has fallen out of the channel and is now retesting that structure. I have updated my original idea, to now show only 1 option moving forward, as I believe this one is the most likely. (See prior post for that idea). I think the next gap to be filled will be the one below at 280. A rapid 15 percent correction could be the nudge that the Trump administration wants to give congress to push through more stimulus this month. Assuming this plays out, I will go long once that gap is filled as it is likely we see new highs and go parabolic into election season, that just seems to make most sense from a psychological standpoint, since this market clearly has no bearing on fundamentals at the moment. Also, sorry, meant to say "now retesting" on the chart.
AMEX:SPYShort
by aaronsmth5
2
S&P 500 Index Full Analysis (Still Bearish Here)S&P 500 Index Full Analysis (Still Bearish Here) I would like to give a full analysis of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) chart... Let's get started! We will look at my classic signals and then a general view. The classic bearish signals coming out of this SPX chart are as follow: The first thing to notice here is a lower high compared to the 8-Jun. I shared a chart on this date mentioning that the S&P 500 Index had peaked. The next thing we have is a test/challenge of EMA10 as support (meaning, from up to down). Since we have a lower high, the test of EMA10 signals lower prices. We follow with a bearish cross on the MACD. The RSI remains above 50 but trending lower, while the STOCH is showing a strong curve pointing down. We also had a rising wedge pattern, another classic, which broke already a few weeks back. The trading volume is going lower. Notice that the green volume was lower than previous days/weeks on the latest bounce that produced a lower high. General view (SPX Bearish) Don't get caught up in the noise, the hype, the news or \whatnot... Just look at the chart. I haven't read a piece of news about the SPX basically ever, for Bitcoin or anything else for a long while, yet, I can continue to read the charts are produce a high accuracy rate... Everything is here... Everything is on the chart. Keeping it simple... Trading below the "LAST PEAK" is bearish. If prices move and close below the "LAST PEAK", it opens the door for additional bullish action but still, there are many factors that keep the bearish view present since the All-Time High is still intact. So, we can see prices moving above the LAST PEAK which gives us a more bullish view but still remain cautious until the last high is taken out. As for the initial analysis... We are bearish based on all the signals we just shared above. What is your take my dear reader/follower/supporter? Thanks a lot for your amazing and continued support. Namaste.
SP:SPXShort
by MasterAnanda
3