SPY January, 2001 Replay?The price action we've seen since October looks a lot like the tech bubble of Y2K. The economy was just a tad more organic back in Y2K so our price action may not have as much drama. Using the first tech bubble as a model, the graph shows what will most likely happen. IF .....it plays out in the same fashion then we have to wait till February before this 'algo driven market' snaps under its own weight. Hey, its an idea. We'll see.
SP
SPY- Futures have broken structure.Since the Futures have already broken structure we can assume that we will get that start of some downside movement. Whether we already topped or if we are simply pulling back is a big mystery in my opinion. In fact, trading bounces, are very difficult as there is an inherent lack of information as the movements are so volatile, not leaving as much room for analysis. I will be watching the horizontal supports closely to see if they are holding price or if we break down from them. If we do break down from both of these horizontals we will be looking at our SPY 233 lows. If that cannot hold then we will impulse down toward 212. The horizntal supports provide oppotunities to exit some shorts and de-risk and wait to see if they hold.
SP TO BOTTOM 2508 TO MY ALT 2455 BEAR PHASED ENDING NOW BASED ON MY FORECAST THAT THE TOP IS IN JAN AND THAT WE ARE IN A 2 YEAR BEAR FYI ONE DOWN ALREADY MY FRACTAL WORK LOOKS FOR MY CYCLE LOW DUE NOW INTO DEC 18 AS LONG AS 2445 HOLDS I STILL HAVE A SHARP RALLY FYI I WENT LONG SP 2566AND 2547 ADDING 2510 AND 2483 WE SHOULD SEE A SHARP RALLY BACK TO JUST ABOVE 2815 INTO JAN 14 PEAK
SP500 at tipping pointThere's been a lot of FUD going on in the market lately. Multiple days of several hundred point drops will do that.
Ignore the FUD, and read the tea leaves. Here's what the charts say to me:
SP500 remains in the bull wave channel which began nearly 10 years ago in March 2009. As long as the price remains in this channel, the bull market continues.
Red line is long term support. Blue is long term resistance.
Failure of the red support is bad. If 2940 is in fact the market high, then 2460 is the first short target and will likely be the first domino all the way down to 1580 -- perhaps even 1140-1200 if we retrace in a similar fashion to 2008/2009.
Right now, I think the price is more likely to go back up than down, but should the red line fail, GTFO.
Very messy week going towards the midterms elections but currentIf it stays above 2600 this time next week and some good news comes out we could see new record highs by the end of the year?
If bad news is released and midterms go against Trump and the markets starts closing below 2600 we could be in a bear market by December?
ASX - over extended market.The market has over extended now and as i have mentioned in my previous post, i am expecting green this week. Today's close is evident of that and looks good for a 1-2 week up trend. I Expect us to reach the red area before heading down lower.
friend of mine mentioned that US earning reports re coming out in 2 weeks. This may be the catalyst that takes us lower into the next lot of targets. Other than that, we should have some relief. Fisher and RVGI ready to reset.
AXS200 updateThe market had a good bounce today with an even red and green movements. As per the bounce.
The perfect wick from serious support (i.e. the sidways movement back in 2017).
As mentioned in my comment on my other post, I expect more green to come this week. The DJI is already up 1% with many US stocks in the green.
I suspect this is our first pivot point with potentially 1 or 2 more major dumps in the near future.
S&P 500 Index Long term OutlookThis index could still run a few miles ahead even though there is a tremendous technological valuation that needs correction.
A lot of things can change in 10 years, whether you like it or not Trump has a lot of power and influence on the USA and world economy for the next decade.
This projection is based on the fractal nature of market cycles.
S&P 500 Parallel AnalysisThe SP 500 is stair-stepping up parallel support lines, whilst butting up against parallel lines set by March intraday lows. This is technically bullish, and implies that a breakout to the next parallel line is in the cards.
The only concerning point is the successive Stoch RSI bearish divergence. While excessively bullish markets will ignore bearish divergence (and vice versa for bearish markets), the fact that price is close to parallel resistance might suggest that a temporary high could form.
With that said, if a pullback can hold above the breakout line, which is confluence of the parallel lines that have held for the balance of the year, this would be incredibly bullish, and would project a measured move to the 3000 level.