AXS200 updateThe market had a good bounce today with an even red and green movements. As per the bounce.
The perfect wick from serious support (i.e. the sidways movement back in 2017).
As mentioned in my comment on my other post, I expect more green to come this week. The DJI is already up 1% with many US stocks in the green.
I suspect this is our first pivot point with potentially 1 or 2 more major dumps in the near future.
SP
S&P 500 Index Long term OutlookThis index could still run a few miles ahead even though there is a tremendous technological valuation that needs correction.
A lot of things can change in 10 years, whether you like it or not Trump has a lot of power and influence on the USA and world economy for the next decade.
This projection is based on the fractal nature of market cycles.
S&P 500 Parallel AnalysisThe SP 500 is stair-stepping up parallel support lines, whilst butting up against parallel lines set by March intraday lows. This is technically bullish, and implies that a breakout to the next parallel line is in the cards.
The only concerning point is the successive Stoch RSI bearish divergence. While excessively bullish markets will ignore bearish divergence (and vice versa for bearish markets), the fact that price is close to parallel resistance might suggest that a temporary high could form.
With that said, if a pullback can hold above the breakout line, which is confluence of the parallel lines that have held for the balance of the year, this would be incredibly bullish, and would project a measured move to the 3000 level.
Recurring consolidation 4H patterns on S&P before a bullish leg?The current sideways pattern on 4H (ADX neutral = 20.362) is seen two times more in the previous month and always resulted in a bullish spike near 2,790 before declining sharply to or even below 2,650. The critical day is tomorrow. If 2,745 breaks then the pattern should repeat it self backed up by very bullish 1D RSI = 59.474, Highs/Lows = 13.3750, MACD = 16.130). Otherwise, we have to wait for 2,700 to break, in order to short.
Bearish Reversal on S&PMirror Channel Down pattern developing on 1D as 2,741 has been priced as the latest Lower High (ADX = 21.036) on the current 2018 bear cycle. 4H has already initiated its Channel Down (Highs/Lows = -10.9821, BBP = -14.4680) with only MACD = 8.280 supporting from further downtrend. Expected targets are the supports (2,697.60 and 2,680.50 the most immediate).
Black Monday for S&P 500 or coming close to Black Tuesday While big investors start to jump out of the train they kick off a bearish move... Why?
The answer is harder than you think, but at the same time it has logical decision. Since some months ago I shared with some friends about this risk, but the market just went higher over and over.
You know I like to apply maths to my trading, but at the same time history, actually economy is a social science, so as history repeats itself economy do as well.
Watch out, I'm not talking about will happen tomorrow or next week, but is something to keep in mind...
A crush could come pretty soon, because factors are more than one.
1. History
2. Currency War
3. War as the worst way we know
4. Real Correction
1. History: I already said history tends to repeat itself over and over. In 1928 everyone was very enthusiastic and even taxi drivers and shoeshine boys bought stocks without any preliminary knowledge, except by some conversations with Wall Street's people. Economy was growing to massive pace, but with an overpriced market. Calvin Coolidge as pro-business President, he went for Anti-regulation and TAX CUTS. Sounds familiar?.
2. Currency War: Currently happening.
3. War as the worst way we know: War is absolutely possible if Trump makes a mistake with North Korea, I hope not, but if definitely will hit American economy and with less budget for tax cuts, less money for government.
4. Real Correction: Real correction is based on cyclical economy, in my case I support the cyclical adjusted price earning ratio, which is coming higher from last 10 years.
However, I love America and I hope to be wrong.
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