Someone is lying...BTCUSD vs SPX performance, MAR-OCT 2024
Explanation: both BTC and SPX are risk-on category assets. Hence, according to the general rule, their performance should correlate. When their performance is not correlating, it can be seen as: a. an option of aquiring an under'performing asset, expecting additional profit b. a signal to a potential pivot of a neighbouring asset.
Sp1
ASX 200 mimics Wall Street's 'risk-on' rally into Jackson HoleOverbought indicators are of little use when markets are obsessed with rate cuts ahead of a key fed speech. Jerome Powell will speak at the Jackson hole symposium and Friday, and expectations for a dovish show are high. And that's helped Wall Street indices extend gains and the allowed the ASX 200 to tag along for the ride. But if this turns out to be a classic 'buy the rumour, sell the fact' tale, traders may need to factor in some of the overbought clues on the daily chart.
ASX 200 futures test their luck below resistanceI see a common connection when looking across Wall Street futures, ASX 200 and the Nikkei. They're all retracing higher after a large drop and grinding their way towards resistance levels. And that could appeal to bearish swing traders.
ASX 200 futures (SPI) are within their 8th day higher. And as they have only recouped around 2/3rds of the drop rom the fall the record high (and over a longer timeframe than the drop) I suspect a swing high is due. Note Tuesday's doji, and subsequent price action has traded in the upper wick of that doj.
A resistance cluster hovers around 7873 - 7900, and we favour fading into any moves towards it with a stop above 7700. Bears could target just above 7700 for a downside target.
ASX 200 futures hints at another leg higherThe sharp fall from its record high remains the dominant feature on the daily ASX 200 futures chart. Whilst this is likely to suppress appetite for risk for some time, Tuesday's bullish hammer suggests bears are in need of a break.
The false break of the April low has been followed by a higher low and higher high on the 1-hour chart. Prices are now trying to form another higher low, so dips look appealing for bullish setups down to 7555.
7700 is the next upside target near the 38.2% Fibonacci ratio, although there is also a resistance cluster between 7767 to 7794 which also seems reachable. Whether it can extend such a move really depends on appetite for risk elsewhere.
ASX 200 bulls eye 8000The ASX 200 futures contract (SPI 200) snapped a 3-day losing streak overnight, and with Wall Street trying to shed last week's losses and the Nikkei and Hang Seng finding support, we suspect a bounce could be due for the ASX today.
The daily chart found support at the 20-day EMA and monthly R1 pivot and closed back above the May high. It is now within 1-2 day's trade form the 8k level.
The 1-hour chart shows a liquidity gap between 7950 - 8000, and with bullish momentum behind it we could find that area acts as a magnet to fill the gap towards 8000. Bulls could seek dips back towards the May high for longs up to 8000, although without a fresh catalyst it seems like a tempting area for bulls to book profits.
NASDAQ INDEX (US100): To The Next Highs
One more instrument that we discussed on the today's live stream
is US100 Index.
This week, the market updated the all-time high, violating a key horizontal resistance.
With a very bullish fundamental data, the Index has a nice growth potential.
Next resistance - 19300
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S&P500 INDEX (SPY): Your Trading Plan
S&P500 Index is currently testing a key daily structure support.
To buy the market with a confirmation, watch a double bottom pattern on 4H time frame.
4487 level is the upper boundary of its neckline.
If the price breaks and closes above that on a 4H, it will be a strong bullish signal.
A bullish movement will be expected 4517 level then.
Alternatively, if the price sets a new lower low on a 4H, the setup will become invalid.
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S&P500 INDEX (US500): Bearish Pattern & Pullback
S&P500 Index formed a head and shoulders pattern on a daily time frame,
trading in a bullish trend.
The breakout of the neckline of the pattern signifies the local exhaustion of the
buyers and highly probable coming correctional movement.
I expect a bearish movement at least to 4465
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Nasdaq Index (US100): More Growth is Ahead
NASDAQ Index broke and closed above a neckline of a cup and handle pattern
on a daily, following the yesterday's CPI report.
Taking into consideration, that the index is trading in a strong bullish trend,
that violation will most likely trigger a strong bullish wave.
I will expect growth to 15600.
For entries, consider an occasional retest of a broken neckline.
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S&P500 INDEX (SPY) Your Trading Plan For Next Week
S&P500 Index formed a huge ascending triangle formation on a daily.
Its neckline is a key horizontal resistance.
To catch the next bullish wave, wait for a bullish breakout of 4215,
it will confirm the violation.
A bullish continuation will be expected to 4300 then.
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US100 Index (NASDAQ): New High on a Weekly!
NASDAQ broke and closed above a key weekly horizontal structure resistance
setting a new higher high higher close.
It makes me think that a bullish trend may continue.
Next long-term goal for buyers - 14850
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S&P500 Index (SPY) Pullback From Key Level
S&P500 Index reached a key horizontal support.
The price formed a double bottom, approaching that,
and successfully broke the neckline.
I expect a pullback at least to 4100 with a potential continuation to 4130.
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S&P500 Index (SPY) Bullish Outlook After NFP 📈
So it looks like the NFP is certainly bullish for S&P500 index:
Approaching a daily zone of demand, the price formed a double bottom formation on 4h,
successfully violated its neckline and reacted positively on its retest.
I will expect a bullish continuation and retest of a local high 4137
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Exuberant Pumping-up to Settle Back Into Reality?Exuberant Pumping-up to Settle Back Into Reality?
With the quarter-end window dressing, and the new month beginning related artificial/seasonal boost to the markets behind us, the reality of the economy, inflation, and the interest rates soon to be driving the markets again. Whether it would be glass-half-full or glass-half-empty camp that leads remains to be seen. Our models indicate initial pressure to the downside.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional models are indicating early signs of bearishness, and are monitoring for a potential short signal. For now, no trading plans for the day.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session.
Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Trading Plans for TUE. 04/04:
Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4131, 4121, 4101, or 4085 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4128, 4117, 4098, 4094, or 4081 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exit on a break below 4147, and explicit short exit on a break above 4063. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 12:01pm ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
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S&P500 Index (SPY): Bullish Outlook Explained
S&P500 Index is trading in a rising channel on a daily.
The price was approaching a solid resistance cluster on Thursday and Friday.
The market managed to break that and successfully closed above.
I believe that the Index may go higher this week.
Next goal for buyers will be 4155
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S&P500 Index (SPY): Classic Trend-Following Pattern
S&P500 Index is trading in a bearish trend.
Once, the price set the last low on a daily, a correctional movement started.
The market was steadily growing within a bearish flag pattern.
To catch a bearish continuation, wait for a bearish breakout of the support of the flag.
If the price breaks and closes below that on a daily,
a bearish continuation will be expected.
Goal will be 3830
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Dow Jones Index (US30): Waiting For Breakout
Dow Jones Index is very bearish since 7th of March.
Currently, the price is stuck on a solid horizontal support, though.
For now, I am patiently waiting for its breakout.
Daily candle close below that area will confirm the violation.
A bearish wave will be expected then at least to 30900 support.
I will post an update once I spot a confirmed breakout.
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