Sp1
VIX Falling Wedge; SPX Rising WedgeVIX Falling Wedge; SPX Rising Wedge
01:34:13 (UTC)
Sun Jun 14, 2020
Shiller Ratio (Sat Jun 13, 2020)Here's an update of the Shiller index which I formulated in the chart above with longer term timeframes to show the breadth of the situation. The U.S. equity market now appears "cheap" to many--the ones who have named this so called "V" shaped recovery in the U.S. equity markets, however it's important to keep context in mind when looking back at a decade of earnings growth compared to 1919.Into December of 1919, the CAPE was at an all-time low. With so much focus on 1919 going into the COVID-19 pandemic among market commentary, the comparison that this chart allows to make is 1919 to 2019, with a suggestion of downtrend.
If the SPX indeed returns to multiples in 1919, that would put a market valuation of the SPX at around $500 according to the CAPE ratio.
watch this level SP500BFI sell level... or is it a trap? Time will tell but with the current political and civil tensions building its easy to say, this price level can possibly predict a dramatic event quickly approaching. Will coronavirus, black lives matter and global political tensions cause the big sell off? Or, will this be another big fake-out and breakout to the upside? Time will tell. Just don't sleep on this zone.
NESTLE (NESN): Catching Bullish Wave
hey guys,
nestle is trading within a bullish flag formation on 4h.
last week a key daily support was reached and now we see a strong bullish reaction from that.
if bulls manage to break through the resistance of the flag, we will expect a bullish continuation to recent structure highs:
106
108
good luck!
SPX Bearish Bias Remains 13:16:52 (UTC) Thu May 28, 2020Although I don't trade the SPY or the SPX, I will be looking at a rejection from 3059 to add short to XLF and IWM. Most people that have a problem with bearish bias at these levels, are more than likely trading on platforms which don't allow short selling. I appreciate all comments, regardless of your bias. XLV continues to remain a long position for me.
Green pill or Red pill ? Green count is bullish
Red count is bearish.
Either way, i expect a reaction at the $3K area.
S&P500, The Accurate place to SELL...Please Support this Idea with LIKE if it is Useful....
S&P500
The price is following a channel,everytime the price touches the channel's trendline the price reacts strongly,wait for the price to reach the zone and if price gives any bearish signal look for Sell opportunity..
For Entry:
Wait for the formation of Bearish Candlestick Pattern to close on 2hr timeframe for confirmation to SELL..
Trade it with proper Sl..
In case, if price breaks above the support/resistance then we have to wait for a clear direction..
Push LIKE & SUPPORT the Idea...
*The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions.
Where are the volumes?The situation with the S&P500 is not clear. Yes, we broke H&S, Yes, we have broken a small triangle with a gap (so far), but there are no volumes anywhere, including on momentum, it is not clear whether there is just no one in the market, or whether this is a false breakdown, we need to look. The key level is 2970. But for now, I still have big doubts about growth - too good news is on TV, and not a very pleasant situation is happening in the world...
love, kiss.
SPX500 INDEX (SPY) Bearish Forecast Based on Structure
hey guys,
since the 29th of April, we see a consolidation on spy in a wide horizontal daily range.
now the price is approaching its resistance again so we can expect a retracement.
target levels
2900 - minor support (382 retracement of the last bull leg with numbers adjusted)
2850 - minor support (618 retracement of the last bull leg with numbers adjusted)
good luck!
S&P 500 update: two of many possible optionsIt looks like the index is going to retest the former top as we got here the consolidation and not an impulse down as
was expected before as retracement prolonged.
Option 1 (blue) - we can see simple ABC 3-3-5 and A-B parts are done.
Option 2 (yellow) - we can drop one more time in double (WXY) or even triple three (WXYXZ, not shown).
The distance of the first leg up in A or (W) is enough to repeated in B or (Y) to tag the all-time high.
S&P 500 to tag the former valley of 2185The correction looks as done so we gonna retest the former valley as a minimum target at 2185.
Can the S&P 500 Go Higher?On the left:
We have a 5 wave move up and are finishing our ABC correction.
2009-2020 bull run fib retracements in black.
Statistical probability of finding a bottom at specific zone, labeled in blue. We found a bottom on march 23rd in the 60% chance zone.
On the right: Zooming into the correction
The correction appears to be a Elliott Wave regular flat correction.
Elliott Wave Regular Flat Correction: imgur.com
I'm a buyer now, @$2,788 and @$2,750
T1: $3,100+
T2: Gap @$3,260 - $3,328
S&P500, Where to SELL???Please Support this Idea with LIKE if it is Useful....
S&P500
The price is struggling to keep above the 61.8 fib level,the price failed to make significant move above the level 2 times already,as long as price does not make a strong move above the 61.8 fib level the price will stay bearish..after a big bullish move the price do need a pullback,So wait for the price to make a bearish move and after a pullback SELL if price gives a bearish signal...Trade carefully market is very volatile nowadays...
For Entry:
Wait for the formation of Bearish Candlestick Pattern to close on 8hr timeframe for confirmation to SELL..
Trade it with proper Sl..
In case, if price breaks above the support/resistance then we have to wait for a clear direction..
Push LIKE & SUPPORT the Idea...
*The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions.
TESLA INC (TSLA) REVERSAL CLUES TO CONSIDER!
hey guys,
daily divergence on rsi and immediate, strong bearish reaction from 850 resistance makes me think that something is coming.
for now, the main resort for buyers is 685 structure support.
during the last month buyers 3 times made the market move from that but each time the movement was relatively weak.
if bears will be able to return the prices back again to the abovementioned support,
we should look for its bearish breakout.
being broken to the downside, buyers will lose their confidence and the price will start falling.
don't miss this potential opportunity and set the alert on a key level to be prepared!
SP-500
After another correction of 6%, we reached a 23.6% fibonacci level.
I think we will continue to grow, as I said in previous post
S&P futures looking to fall out of the rising wedgeIt looks as if the pattern is getting broken and the target is the baseline of the rising wedge!
If this happens, we have to wait and see what will happen to all stock markets, it may be a really bad sign.
MCDONALDS (MCD) On Key Level! Two Scenarios!
Mcdonalds is approaching a key daily resistance level.
on 4h is coiling in a rising wedge pattern and clearly, the market participants are waiting for some trigger.
earnings I suppose!
for now, the price action is weak and we should be prepared for both scenarios.
in case of a bullish violation of the key level, we will see a bullish continuation to 206/217 levels
in case of a bearish breakout of the wedge, we may expect a drop to 170/156!
be prepared for both scenarios and follow the market!
good luck!
SPY ScenariosNot Financial Advice.
Looks like a few scenarios could play out here, rally to new highs or continue the downtrend. I don't see people talking about that massive bullish engulfing on the weekly?? I see a lot of news and retail is extremely bearish talking about recession and depression. This is dumb money and to me it makes me extremely bullish short term. Perhaps if sentiment changes in the bull trap that could develop then I would switch back to bearish. Want to see a drawn out bull trap of like a 6 month rally to top of megaphone wedge and rejection to new lows would be perfect to fuck over retail. They re-enter the positions they jumped out of at the lows at the range highs then rinse and repeat.
People saying the Federal Reserve is out of ammo are on crack. The USD is the reserve currency of the world today like it was yesterday, rates are at zero but still not negative, and now the FED is going to buy ETFs. To me this could launch another leg in the markets to new highs. Eventually this Ponzi will unravel. Maybe in the mid 2020's when the boomers are pulling more out of the market than millennials can put in with their 401k's. Or maybe millennials put their 401k allocations to gold and bitcoin and thus the capital flows to equities ends up really shrinking to the point where the FED can't keep up without buying majority share of equities? will be an interesting decade.
Looking at most stocks like Boeing, LMT, Tesla, and others, I wouldn't want to buy these stocks here. Why? I want to buy a massive crash or just look at accumulating cheap commodities which are already down massively.
The equities market could take years to unravel like the Nikkei. I think Commodities see greater returns over the next ten years vs equities, but that is my thinking and shouldn't be viewed as financial advice. Interested to hear others thoughts...
Peace out and God Bless.
