TRADERSAI - A.I. Powered Model Trades for FRI 07/19 - OUTCOMESResults of our models' trading plans, published in the morning, are now available. Anyone can verify/cross-check the triggering of these trades from any source that provides charts.
THE GIST:
Medium-Frequency Models: One short opened at 2996 and is being carried into the next session. 9-point trailing stop anchored at 2985.61.
Aggressive, Intraday Models: Lead to +29.40 index points in gains on four shorts and three longs.
THE DETAILS:
For the trade-by-trade details with time stamps, please check out the article on our website.
IMPORTANT NOTES (NOT your typical fine print, but IMPORTANT and MEANT to DRAW YOUR ATTENTION TO):
(i) The index by itself is NOT tradable. The model plans here based on the S&P index level can be used to trade any instrument that tracks the index – the futures on the index (ES, ES-mini), the options on the futures (ES options), the SPX options, the ETF SPY are just a few examples of the instruments one can adapt these plans to.
(ii) The trades indicated are not reflective of or indicative of any specific outcomes for any specific individual – your exact results would vary widely, depending on the time frame you use – tick chart, 1-min chart, 5-min chart, 15-min chart etc, as well as the quality of the execution of your broker, the stop levels you use based on your risk tolerance and your trading style.
(iii) These plans and results are hypothetical and NOT an investment advice to buy or sell any specific securities but are intended to aid – as informational, educational, and research tools – in arriving at your own investment/trading decisions. Please read the full disclosures at the bottom of the article on our website for additional notes and disclaimers.
Sp1
S&P Failed Breakout of Trading RangeIn a previous post I talked about this being a risky time to buy for a long term investment in the S&P, Emini, SPY, or MES. Despite what the media may want you to believe - this market is no longer in a strong bull trend. If it was, prices would break out strongly above previous highs. But what is happening instead? Prices go mostly sideways to down, signalling bull profit taking.
This is because the strong bulls bought lower; they know what is happening. They do not want to buy high because the risk is too large and the probability is too low. This is also where strong bears start looking to sell and will scale in higher if they need to. They understand the probability is in their favor. What happens when both strong bulls and strong bears sell? Well, there is only one direction for the market to go..
The bulls who bought the all time high (last weeks close) are currently trapped. The bulls who bought the breakout on July 12th are also trapped on the daily chart. This is very similar to the Jan 22, and Sep 17 bull closes. Look and see what happened next. Sharp selloffs as the bulls exit in a panic. It took months for prices to get back to a level where they could get out at break even, and they had to sit through a long enduring pullback in order to avoid a loss. Furthermore they risked money to essentially break even, which is extremely dangerous. This is what is known as the "thank you god price." Where those bulls are thankful just to get out without a significant loss.
If this week closes as a bear bar, it will be a bear setup for a wedge reversal and failed bull breakout of a trading range. If it fails, and there is another new all time high, the bears will likely try for a second entry in the coming weeks. In either case, the bulls only have a 40% chance of a strong bull rally and measured move up based on the trading range. The bears have a 60% chance of two legs sideways to down and a test of the middle of the current trading range, or the bottom of the trading range around 2400.
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See more at my website on how to learn to identify probabilities, create an edge, and develop your traders mentality.
Bulls and Bears zone for 07-18-2019Yesterday Bulls could not defend 3000 level, therefore the market sold off. However, market has been rallying during overnight session. Bulls need to take out 50% range of yesterdays RTH session to continue, otherwise we will see another sell off today.
Level to watch 2979---2977
Report to watch today:
US:EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
TRADERSAI - A.I. Powered Model Trades for WED 07/19 - OUTCOMESResults of our models' trading plans, published in the morning, are now available. Anyone can verify/cross-check the triggering of these trades from any source that provides charts.
THE GIST:
Medium-Frequency Models: One short opened at 2998, and is being carried to the next session.
Aggressive, Intraday Models: Lead to +5.00 index points in gains on one short.
THE DETAILS:
For the trade-by-trade details with time stamps, please check out on our site (not allowed to post the link here)
Bulls and Bears zone for 07-17-2019Even though yesterday was a down day but that is bullish. Because, yesterday market sold off to close small gap from last Thursday and bounced. As long as market holds 3000 it should be bullish for the day.
I suppose market will test overnight low before any direction.
Level to watch 3007----3009
Couple of reports that could impact the market:
US:EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
US:Beige Book
2:00 PM ET
TRADERSAI - A.I. Powered Model Trades for Today, WED 07/17Complacency or Consolidation?
Markets to continue to be driven by - or, appear to be - earnings related headlines but the market action's underpinnings point to technicals rather than fundamentals...for now.
The chart shows the trading levels indicated by our models for today's session. For detailed trading plans, please check on our site.
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#ES #ESMINI #SP500 #SPX #SPY #Fed #Powell #Rates #Earnings
TRADERSAI - A.I. Powered Model Trades for TUE 07/16 - OUTCOMESResults of our models' trading plans, published Friday morning, are now available. Anyone can verify/cross-check the triggering of these trades from any source that provides charts.
THE GIST:
Medium-Frequency Models: Open long stopped out for a loss of 7.98 index points.
Aggressive, Intraday Models: Lead to -3.88 index points in losses on a total of seven trades (four long and three shorts).
THE DETAILS:
For the trade-by-trade details with time stamps, please check the article on our website.
IMPORTANT NOTES (NOT your typical fine print, but IMPORTANT and MEANT to DRAW YOUR ATTENTION TO):
(i) The index by itself is NOT tradable. The model plans here based on the S&P index level can be used to trade any instrument that tracks the index – the futures on the index (ES, ES-mini), the options on the futures (ES options), the SPX options, the ETF SPY are just a few examples of the instruments one can adapt these plans to.
(ii) The trades indicated are not reflective of or indicative of any specific outcomes for any specific individual – your exact results would vary widely, depending on the time frame you use – tick chart, 1-min chart, 5-min chart, 15-min chart etc, as well as the quality of the execution of your broker, the stop levels you use based on your risk tolerance and your trading style.
(iii) These plans and results are hypothetical and NOT an investment advice to buy or sell any specific securities but are intended to aid – as informational, educational, and research tools – in arriving at your own investment/trading decisions. Please read the full disclosures at the bottom of the article on our website for additional notes and disclaimers.
Bulls and Bears zone for 07-16-2109Last four days market has been rallying and volume has been decreasing. In addition, yesterdays daily bar looks like a spindle.
Overnight session, market has been in a trading range. If market cannot take out yesterdays RTH 50% range, we might see a sell off.
Levels to watch 3017----3015
Few reports that could impact the market:
US:Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
US:Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
US:Jerome Powell Speaks
1:00 PM ET
TRADERSAI - A.I. Powered Model Trades for Today, TUE 07/16In this Market, Earnings (Still) Matter (?)
Markets to continue to be driven by - or, appear to be - earnings related headlines. This is even more so in the absence of any major economic (barring the Retail Sales Advance release this morning, and Powell's speech in Paris later in the day) releases that upset the complacency on the street.
As we wrote on Friday's outlook, let not your sense of "can this keep going up?" color your trading strategies - instead, focus on what "is" the dominant direction of the markets and and be on that side until something else evidently manifests itself.
The chart shows the trading levels indicated by our models for today's session. For detailed trading plans, please check on our site.
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#ES #ESMINI #SP500 #SPX #SPY #Fed #Powell #Rates #Earnings
TRADERSAI - A.I. Powered Model Trades for MON 07/15 - OUTCOMESResults of our models' trading plans, published Friday morning, are now available. Anyone can verify/cross-check the triggering of these trades from any source that provides charts.
THE GIST:
Medium-Frequency Models: One long opened and carried to the next session (entry at 3014, with a 9-point trailing stop currently anchored at 3005.50).
Aggressive, Intraday Models: With a choppy and excessive trading around the identified pivot point of 3012 (right at the center of the identified levels of 3010 and 3014), lead to a gain of 4.00 index points on a total of 32 trades - 16 short and 16 long; indicative of a strong range formation between 3010 and 3014.
THE DETAILS:
For the trade-by-trade details with time stamps, please check out the article on our site (not allowed to post the link here)
IMPORTANT NOTES (NOT your typical fine print, but IMPORTANT and MEANT to DRAW YOUR ATTENTION TO):
(i) The index by itself is NOT tradable. The model plans here based on the S&P index level can be used to trade any instrument that tracks the index – the futures on the index (ES, ES-mini), the options on the futures (ES options), the SPX options, the ETF SPY are just a few examples of the instruments one can adapt these plans to.
(ii) The trades indicated are not reflective of or indicative of any specific outcomes for any specific individual – your exact results would vary widely, depending on the time frame you use – tick chart, 1-min chart, 5-min chart, 15-min chart etc, as well as the quality of the execution of your broker, the stop levels you use based on your risk tolerance and your trading style.
(iii) These plans and results are hypothetical and NOT an investment advice to buy or sell any specific securities but are intended to aid – as informational, educational, and research tools – in arriving at your own investment/trading decisions. Please read the full disclosures at the bottom of the article on our website for additional notes and disclaimers.
TRADERSAI - A.I. Powered Model Trades for Today, MON 07/15Earnings Headlines to Drive the Markets
In the absence of major, unexpected geopolitical headlines (China's slowing growth has been expected, old news), markets seem to be set to focus on the earnings headlines for today. And, those headlines look to be on the side of the bulls as of this morning.
As we wrote on Friday's outlook, let not your sense of "can this keep going up?" color your trading strategies - instead, focus on the trend and the momentum, and be on their side until something else evidently drives the markets.
The chart shows the trading levels indicated by our models for today's session. For detailed trading plans, please check on our site.
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#ES #ESMINI #SP500 #SPX #SPY #Fed #Powell #Rates #Earnings
TRADERSAI - A.I. Powered Model Trades for FRI 07/12 - OUTCOMESResults of our models' trading plans, published Friday morning, are now available. Anyone can verify/cross-check the triggering of these trades from any source that provides charts.
THE GIST:
Medium-Frequency Models: No trades planned for the day.
Aggressive, Intraday Models: Lead to a gain of 2.50 index points on a total of two trades - one short and one long.
THE DETAILS:
For the trade-by-trade details with time stamps, please check on our site (not allowed to post the links here).
TRADERSAI - A.I. Powered Model Trades for Today, FRI 07/12How Long Can this Ride Last? That's Not the Right Question!
As we wrote yesterday morning's outlook, trying to justify what our "gut" "feeling" says what "should or should not be" happening in the markets is NOT what one should do to invest or trade in the markets. Yet, most individual investors/traders are known to do exactly that! If you find yourself pounding the table about what should not be the case or should be the case, it will serve you well to ponder this.
Rather than trying to predict what might happen in the future (whether it be next year, next month, next week, tomorrow, or next hour), most professionals' trading relies heavily on "evidence" of what "is" happening in the market and run with it. And, most of the times, what "is" is not necessarily what might be obvious or might exactly be what is wide open and obvious. Quant models help us confirm that exact "evidence"!
The chart shows the trading levels indicated by our models for today's session. For detailed trading plans, please check on our site.
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#ES #ESMINI #SP500 #SPX #SPY #Fed #Powell #Rates #Yields
Bulls and Bears zone for 07-12-2019Last couple of days price action has been very ominous. Both days traders sold off as soon as market rallied after open. If we open at ATH today, i would expect market to sell off again perhaps after a test of the overnight session high.
Levels to watch would be 3010---3012
TRADERSAI - A.I. Powered Model Trades for THU 07/11 - OUTCOMESResults of our models' trading plans, published in the morning, are now available. Anyone can verify/cross-check the triggering of these trades from any source that provides charts.
THE GIST:
Medium-Frequency Models: Lead to a gain of 3.20 index points on one short trade.
Aggressive, Intraday Models: Lead to a gain of 1.10 index points on a total of three trades - one long and two shorts.
THE DETAILS:
For the trade-by-trade details with time stamps, please check out the article on our site (not allowed to post the link here)
Elliott Wave View: S&P 500 (SPX) Remains Buy in the DipsS&P 500 (SPX) shows a bullish sequence from December 26, 2018 low against June 3, 2019 low (2728.81) favoring further upside. Short term Elliott Wave view suggests the rally from June 13, 2019 low (2874.68) is unfolding as a leading diagonal Elliott Wave structure. Leading diagonal is a special type of 5 waves structure with a wedge like pattern and overlapping wave (i) and (iv). Up from June 13 low, wave (i) ended at 2964.15 and wave (ii) ended at 2912.99. Index then resumes higher in wave (iii) towards 2995.84 and wave (iv) pullback ended at 2963.44.
Expect SPX to do 1 more push higher to end wave (v) and this move also end wave ((i)). Afterwards, Index should pullback within wave ((ii)) to correct cycle from June 13 low before the rally resumes. Wave ((ii)) pullback should unfold in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing. We don’t like selling the Index and expect Index to continue finding support in pullback. As far as pivot at June 13 low (2874.68) stays intact in the first degree, expect Index to extend higher. If pivot at June 13 low fails, then Index is correcting cycle from June 3 low (2728.81), and still expected to resume higher while above there.
TRADERSAI - A.I. Powered Model Trades for Today, THU 07/11Does Something Not Seem Right with this Bull?
When markets are making new highs on old news, and when the Fed is dovish when the financial markets are at historic highs and the unemployment at historic lows - if you "feel" something does not add up, you are not being irrational but you may not be being objective as well!
Making trading decisions should not have anything to do with what one "thinks"/"feels", but about what "is" happening and what it probabilistically "indicates" happening further. That's where quantitative models can help.
The chart shows the trading levels indicated by our models for today's session. For detailed trading plans, please check on our site.
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#ES #ESMINI #SP500 #SPX #SPY #Fed #Powell #Rates #Yields
Bulls and Bears zone for 07-11-2019Market tried to rally during overnight session and stalled at high of yesterday's RTH. Traders will probably test overnight high than decide on direction.
Level to watch 3004 ---3006
Bears might prevail today.
Couple of reports that might impact the market:
US:Jerome Powell Speaks
10:00 AM ET
US:EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Bulls and Bears zone for 07-10-2019After yesterday's rally during RTH market sold off during overnight session but stopped at 61% of RTH range. As long as market stays above 2971 we could expect a positive day.
However, volatility could be high due to Mr. Powell speaking today and FOMC minutes release.
Level to watch would be 2982---2984.
Few reports for today:
US:Jerome Powell Speaks
10:00 AM ET
US:EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
US:FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET
Bulls and Bears zone for 07-08-2019Since Fridays rally, market has been selling off during overnight session. So far market has sold off over 61% of Fridays RTH session, which is probably bearish.
Need to look for test of overnight high before market resumes its direction. Level to watch would be 2987 ---2985.