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Sp500analysis

DAX vx SP500: Is DAX highly over valued?By comparing the charts of US indexes vs European indexes we usuallly find pretty much the same patterns. However there is something that really caught my attention, compare the monthly chart of sp500 vs Dax: DAX is only 6,54% from all time highs of 2022 SP500 is 15,40% from its all time highs of 2022. NASDAQ is 28,45% from it's all time highs of 2022 This difference is obviously linked to the different policies of central banks, however I wonder if such a huge difference is justified. German economy has been highly struck by energy prices and German inflation is still 8,5% vs 6,5% in the US.
EUREX:FDXM1!
by SBtrader82
DON'T GET TOO BULLISH!Okay, I'm just gonna say it. People have the attention span of gold-fish. We cannot forget the storm that is brewing and the bullshit they're setting up. For starters, don't forget about SBF and FTT. But wait, what was even before that? The Evergrande Situation? And then what about before then/around that time...(See, I'm guilty of it too), but there was there USDT nonsense before that....and what's kind of driving it all? Bitcoin! So, they figured out how to manipulate Bitcoin in a way that it wasn't meant to be manipulated. Instead of it being "non-hackable" and "non-inflationary" this is what they managed to do. And I need you to really think about what I'm about to say: We're going to fast-forward past any tin-foil involving BTC and it's creation...Let's go to USDT: Tether (USDT) is a stablecoin that is designed to maintain a value of 1:1 with the US dollar. This means that for every Tether token issued, there is an equivalent amount of US dollars held in reserve. The purpose of Tether is to provide a stable alternative to cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, which can be highly volatile. It is widely used as a store of value and a means of exchange on cryptocurrency exchanges, where it can be used to trade for other cryptocurrencies. The answer to the question “What is USDT?” involves four specific parts: USDT is an abbreviation for the term United States Dollar Tether United States Dollar Tether (USDT) is a blockchain-based cryptocurrency USDT is also known as Tether USDT is the symbol under which Tether tokens trade But USDT is much more than just those four details. At its heart, it’s a centralized, fiat-collateralized stablecoin. (www.vauld.com) Let's see what my good friend ChatGBT says; which by the way, exists only to steal your ideas and the collective human consciousness. It's the same reason why Elon Musk really wanted Twitter for $54b when he could have easily bought or build his own social media platform for a fraction of the price. Elon wanted the data of the human mind and social interaction. That's why it was such a fight with the bots, and why he also immediately went to a "Free Speech" platform (Even though they all did at the same time. Stuff you see on Youtube now you would have never saw 1-2 years ago...or since 2020, but I digress) Elon needed the bots gone because it corrupts the data (You wouldn't want to upload AI into AI under the impression that it's human behavior.) and he wanted the free-speech because people's voices have been politically censored for the last like 10 years, progressively getting worse and worse each year, and then before you know it, the entire data is full of fake human interaction and not the true nature and opinions of people, which is why he needed free-speech. Elon obviously has plans for some insane AI, and my guess is it involves nueralink, and I for one will not be participating in that, and those of us that don't are going to get left in the stone ages. Okay, my bad, back to ChatGBT/USDT. Here is a convo we had. Me: When did USDT go public? ChatGBT: Tether (USDT) is a stablecoin that is pegged to the US dollar. It was first issued on the Bitcoin blockchain as an ERC-20 token on the Ethereum network in October 2014. It later added support for other blockchains such as Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, and TRON. Me: "Tell me more." ChatGBT: Tether (USDT) is a stablecoin that is designed to maintain a value of 1:1 with the US dollar. This means that for every Tether token issued, there is an equivalent amount of US dollars held in reserve. The purpose of Tether is to provide a stable alternative to cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, which can be highly volatile. It is widely used as a store of value and a means of exchange on cryptocurrency exchanges, where it can be used to trade for other cryptocurrencies. Tether was first issued on the Bitcoin blockchain as an ERC-20 token on the Ethereum network in October 2014 by Tether Limited, a company based in the British Virgin Islands. Since then, it has added support for other blockchains such as Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, and TRON. Tether is one of the most widely used stablecoins in the crypto market and is considered to be one of the most important players in the stablecoin space. Despite this, there has been some controversy surrounding Tether, with some critics questioning the transparency of the company's reserves and how it manages its funds. Me: "Have they been under investigation or public allegations or involved in any alleged scandals or fraud?" (I already knew the answer to this). ChatGBT: "Tether and its associated companies have been subject to a number of investigations and public allegations over the years. The most notable of these include: -In April 2019, the New York Attorney General's office announced that it had launched an investigation into Tether and the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex over concerns that the companies had covered up a loss of $850 million of co-mingled client and corporate funds. -In January 2020, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) also announced that it had subpoenaed Tether and Bitfinex as part of a probe into whether the companies had manipulated the cryptocurrency market. Some critics have raised questions about Tether's reserves and whether the company truly holds enough US dollars to back all of the Tether tokens in circulation. Tether Limited has undergone a number of audits by different firms over the years, but some have criticized the scope and methodology of these audits. It's important to note that Tether and Bitfinex have denied any wrongdoings and disputes the NYAG's allegations. Furthermore, Tether has also been working closely with authorities and regulators to address any concerns and to comply with laws and regulations. It's worth mentioning that these investigations are ongoing, and no formal charges have been filed against Tether or Bitfinex as of this date. It's important to note here that Tether's website used to say that they will follow a consistent and constant audit of all dollars and tokens, ensuring a 1/1 ration, but they quickly removed it. I'm currently struggling to find it with the wayback machine, but you'll just have to take my word for it or find it yourself. So what happened is, you had more USDT being created than USD flowing into USDT....meaning they're creating more USDT than the USD they're receiving, and that magically created USDT is what is being used to buy BTC. So, for example...let's just keep everything super simple....USDT is supposed to be valued $1 USD. Now let's say for every 1 USD that goes in, that Tether produces $2 USDT..meaning that USDT would be worth $.50 USD in all actuality. Now lets say that those $2 USDT are used to buy BTC, which is primarily how all BTC purchases go...That would artificially drive up the cost of the BTC because the BTC thinks it's taking in $1 USD for every $1 USDT they receive. Do you see what I'm getting at? So this is looming in the background and we need to not forget it...especially considering everything else this last 2 years, but we will get into it. Then they printed $5t, a lot of which was taken right back through traps set up via financial psy-ops...and trust me, all these companies know whatever is coming. They don't care that they bought at highs, because they not only rug-pulled you, they also managed to sell digital tokens of the actual coin itself...hello, ROBINHOOD!? WEBULL!? Anywhere else that sells you crypto that you can't access. I'm just saying, you've got that looming in the background, then the arrest of SBF, who was closely associated with Bitnfinex with is associated with, and basically is, Tether or Tether Limited. All these sharks are good at what they do and people fall for the traps all the time. Perfect example, the one that's going on right now. If you're a trader, by all means, trade away and make your money...but if you're losing due to the manipulations of options prices, stay away from them....maybe with the exception of buying some long-expiry $350 puts or something....Something is brewing. There's riots, protests, former/current presidents being raided (and for what really?), and SBF who was hanging out in D.C in the years leading up to and after the introduction of FTT. Just be ready. It's going to get wild. Oh, And who invested in BTC those insanely high prices? All your favorite S&P companies...
AMEX:SPYShort
by rod_a_g1989
8
SPX Is Actually Bullish | My Last Analaysis Was Invalidated When i'm wrong, i'm usually wrong very quickly. My last analysis was invalidated within 24 hours, which is ok because now we know the direction for sure. Its important to know as to why this breakout is important. A structure, as long as 264 days has been broken. A broken structure leads to change! Usually a change in trend. That does not mean we're going to shoot back up to the moon (we could), but at the very least the downtrend seems to be over. the next target is 4100, located at the previous resistance.
SP:SPXLong
by FetchTeam
S&P 500 market will open for the forth day todayThe S&P500 index yesterday closed at its highest trade line level in three days at 3,999.26 as investors turned to US stocks. Most of the gains in this week's pullback in US stock prices have been led by bank stocks as well as shares of some media companies, which were probably untapped by individuals and businesses. The S&P is now up 5.2% this week This is not a piece of financial advice. Hit the like button if you like it and share your charts in the comments section. Thank you
FRED:SP500
by CryptoSanders9563
S&P500: Don't push it 🚫The S&P500 is currently wandering sideways and doesn't really know, where it's heading. We're currently expecting the course to sink further South, but there is a slight temptation to cross the resistance line at 4026 points. In our alternative scenario with a probability of 30%, the course could dig a bit deeper to finish the pink wave alt. II, before exceeding the resistance mark at 4026 points for good. Primarily, the S&P500 should fall below the support line at 3788 points to complete the blue wave . Once achieved, we're predicting steady upwards pulses in the longterm.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarketIntel
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BullishSPXUSD daily guidance is cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 80% SPX, 20% Cash. * GOLDEN CROSS WATCH . US December CPI came in 0.1% lower than in November (which saw a rise of 0.1% from October), whereas Core CPI came in 0.3% higher than in November (which saw a rise of 0.2% from October). The UofM Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary) for January is currently 64.6 , up from 59.7 in December. The current GDPNow US Q4 GDP estimate is 4.1% , up from 3.8% on 01/05/23. It seems as though markets are pricing in a "turnaround in inflation", but with Russia/Ukraine and ongoing supply chain disruptions from China it is likely premature to make such an assessment. Additionally, CPI is conflated and this is largely because the cost of gas has been falling in recent months; this is due to to a combination of: weakening demand from China amidst record COVID cases and resulting lockdowns; a price cap on Russian oil; a dramatic slowing of travel in the winter season (US); and lingering effects of the US government tapping into the SPR. Russia deciding to ban oil exports to any organization or country supporting the $60 price cap begins on February 1st and the next OPEC meeting could result in a cut to production in effort to boost prices. Cryptos are mixed. US Treasuries are up. Key Upcoming Dates: US December PPI at 830AM EST 01/18; US December Retail Sales at 830AM EST 01/18; Next GDPNow US Q4 GDP Estimate 01/18; US Federal Reserve Beige Book at 2PM EST 01/18; US December Building Permits and Housing Starts at 830AM EST 01/19; US Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard (FOMC member) Speech at 1:15PM EST 01/19; US Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller (FOMC member) Speech at 1PM EST 01/20. * Price is currently testing the 200MA at $4k as resistance. Volume remains Moderate (moderate) and has favored buyers for the last four sessions as Price trades in the Point of Control. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3810, this margin is mildly bearish. RSI is currently forming a soft peak at 61 as it approaches 68.42 resistance. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending sideways at max top (it can remain in this 'bullish autobahn' for a few sessions). MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at 14.5 as it breaks above the uptrend line from March 2020, if it can sustain this momentum then it will likely test next resistance is at 33.08. ADX is currently trending up at 15 as Price continues to trend up, this is mildly bullish at the moment. If Price is able to break above the 200MA with conviction, the next likely target is a retest of $4058 minor resistance . However, if Price is rejected here, it will likely test the 50AM at $3913 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $3913 .
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
Our 2023 Outlook - S&P500 🔮Happy New Year traders from the team at AlgoBuddy! 🎇 2022 was a big and exciting year for us. We recently released the latest version of AlgoBuddy's flagship indicators; AlgoBuddy Premium 2.0 & AlgoBuddy Momentum, along with an ETH 30m strategy bot. 🔥 Our goal here is to always deliver helpful & actionable tools for traders to add to their trading tool belts. We'll also continue to release more tutorials and trade ideas every single week. Enough about us, let’s dive right in… 2022 was a year to remember for US equities. Bears clearly took control, as we had a strong down trend bear alert early in the year from AlgoBuddy. We had a few bear market rallies that every trader had to navigate through carefully. Managing capital, and not jumping too quick on to the bull train would have allowed you to survive. By end of year 2022, bears couldn't take us below 2021's low as the bulls defended it nicely (~3860). This is a major level that if we test again will likely fail. As of right now and moving forward, it feels that since inflation is still high, and the fed hasn't taken its foot off the breaks on the economy (interest rates), any rally is still a bear market one for me. We will continue to lean into the bear trend as seen on our weekly chart until we receive a bull alert. Even when the bull alert prints I fully expect price to capitulate and test our thick ribbon at least 2x before finding a base to rally. We recently got a divergence bullish signal on our momentum indicator so we will watch closely. I must see the fed step in and assist economic growth before I jump onto the bull train, even if I'm late to the party I can live with that. Until then, Algobuddy's S&P 2023 outlook is bearish on the weekly for at least end of Q1 2023. We will trade small on short term longs keeping stops tight, and we will jump easier on our shorter time-frame bear alerts for now until the trend changes. Good luck all, as always reach out to us for any questions/help/support. Happy trading, AlgoBuddy Team
SP:SPX
by QuantVue
4
SPX Broke bullish Now What?In the last SPX post, I started to doubt my bearish scenario of the index, by saying that the price looks bullish on the short term. Now that we've seen a short term pump to the resistance, I wanted to give an update. Right now, the upper level of the resistance zone has been touched. This begs the question: Are we going to see a break of this resistance zone. If that happens, I find it extremely likely that the resistance of the channel will break aswell. However, since we're at a resistance level, we have to be cautious about the following events. Right now i'll switch from bullish to neutral, because I want to see whats going to happen next.
SP:SPX
by FetchTeam
1
S&P500 Analysis 29.12.2022Hello Traders, welcome to this free and educational analysis. I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities. If you have any questions or suggestions which asset I should analyse tomorrow, please leave a comment below. I will personally reply to every single comment! If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that like button and maybe consider following my channel. Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow! You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
OANDA:SPX500USD
by basictradingtv
20
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 52% SPX, 48% Cash. * US New Residential Construction saw Building Permits for November down 11.2% from October to 1,342,000 and November Housing Starts down 0.5% from October to 1,427,000 . These numbers are reflective of an economy preparing for weakening demand as we head into 2023. US November Consumer Confidence spiked from 101.4 in November to 108.3 in December following two consecutive months of decline . This number is likely reflective of a lower CPI in November paired with expectations of continued lower inflation in 2023. Nike beat on both top and bottom 2023 Q2 estimates with its second best quarter of revenue growth in the past 10+ years , this is likely due to Black Friday sales and holiday shopping but is also reflective of a still strong US consumer. It was confirmed today by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that the first transfer of the Patriot Air Defense System will be included in the most recent $1.85b aid package that the US will provide to Ukraine . Ukraine President Zelenskyy has also landed in the USA to meet with President Biden and deliver a speech to a joint session in Congress later tonight. Russia has previously declared that any Patriot Missiles supplied to Ukraine would immediately become legitimate targets of their armed forces attack . US Equities, US Equity Futures, Energy, Agriculture, DXY, HSI and N100 are up. Cryptos are mixed. Metals, GBPUSD, EURUSD, JPYUSD, CNYUSD, NI225, VIX and US Treasurys are down. Key Upcoming Dates: US Final Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 12/22; US November PCE Index at 830am EST 12/23; UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 12/23. * Price is currently testing the 50MA at $3875 as resistance. Volume is currently Low (high) and on track to favor buyers for a second consecutive session. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4045, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently testing the uptrend line from January 2022 at 46.5 as resistance. Stochastic crossed over bullish in today's session after retesting max bottom and is currently trending up at 11, the next resistance is at 17. MACD remains bearish and is currently testing -11.45 support. ADX is currently trending down at 13.6 as Price is attempting to defend support at the 50MA, this is mildly bearish at the moment. If Price is to reclaim support of the 50MA it will have to close above $3875 as well as recapture support at $3913 minor support . However, if Price is rejected here at the 50MA, it will likely aim to retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from July 2021 at ~$3710 as support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3810.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
2
SPX Fair Value Ranges - SPX ES1! SPY - Updated 121722Here is a chart that calculates SPX "Fair Value", based off FED Net Liquidity variables. SPY ES1! Looking to the end of the year 2022 and the start of 2023, here are some SPX target ranges to keep in mind when taking into account the current FED Net Liquidity: Upper Bound: $4,271.69 Fair Value: $3,921.69 Lower Bound: $3,771.69 If you want a copy of this chart, here is the link to make a copy: 📊👇🏼 SPX Fair Value (FED Net Liquidity) www.tradingview.com SPX Net Liquidity Band Indicator via @dharmatechnology8: www.tradingview.com
SP:SPX
by kylemusserco
S&P 500 Analysis and Trade IdeaInteresting. Loads of news coming! CPI, FOMC, and interest rate decisions for CHF, GBP and EUR. I will wait until I see how the CPI data turns out before jumping in this market for trades.. especially for any buys. I do, however, see that *support * differently... as I am tentatively bearish in this market. D1: 1 - A bearish break of of Swing structure. Confirms the market is bearish until the high is taken out. 2 - The return to the impulsing order block. This is the expected pullback correction after a BOS. This D1 supply zone was in the premium of the trading range, imbalanced and unmitigated, and price reacted to it perfectly (see last weeks Sunday livestream). It also broke the daily uptrend line. 3* - This is no doubt going to look to some as price finding support for a move up. But it is sell side liquidity, looking thru the lens of SMC. I expect those lows to be swept, as there are SLs there for the traders that took longs from those levels. 4 - This is a well placed imbalance/fair value gap that looks to be filled ... potentially... as price moves to mitigate the demand zone that formed that gap. 5 - This demand zone has potential to hold price once mitigated. So any shorts taken from up higher into it should TP in this area, imo. Personally, I will be looking for confirmations to take a long from here. We'll see how price reacts to this poi firs, though. If you like this analysis and would like to see more, give this post a BOOST with thumbs up! Like & Subscribe is the best thank you in the world! Trade safely.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by RT_Money
1
SPX Daily TA Neutral BearishSPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 45% SPX, 55% Cash. * The FOMC announced a 50bps rate hike today and adjusted their Dot Plot to reflect a 5.1% FFR in 2023 . Markets rallied prior to the announcement and then fell shortly after, though this could have been a short-squeeze, Equity and Crypto markets could see more downward pressure as investors return to Bonds; currently FFR futures traders are anticipating a 75bps rate hike on 02/01/23. DXY, US Treasurys (mixed) and Natural Gas are up. US Equities, US Equity Futures, Cryptos, Commodities, GBPUSD, EURUSD, JPYUSD, CNYUSD, HSI, NI225, N100 and VIX are down. Key Upcoming Dates: Next GDPNow US Q4 GDP estimate 12/15; US November New Residential Construction at 830am EST 12/20; US Final Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 12/22; US November PCE Index at 830am EST 12/23; UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 12/23. * Price is currently trending down at $3995 and is at risk of breaking below the uptrend line from 10/13 after being rejected by the 200MA at ~$4035 as resistance. Volume remains Moderate (high) and favored sellers for a second consecutive session; Price briefly touched the VP Point of Control at ~$3970. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3920, this margin is bearish at the moment. RSI is currently testing 52.68 as support after crossing above it to start the week. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently testing 43.62 resistance. MACD remains bearish and is currently at risk of denying a trough formation at 33.08 support; if it loses 33.08 support then the next support (minor) is at 10.73. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 16 as Price attempts to defend the uptrend line from 10/13, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here and reclaim support of the uptrend line from 10/13 at ~$4032 (which coincides with the 200MA), it will have to break above $4058 minor resistance in order to retest the upper trendline of the descending channel from November 2021 at ~$4150 as resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely retest $3913 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $4058.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
The S&P500 rally stalled at a key resistance clusterThe jury is out over whether a bear-market rally has topped, or last week’s decline is simply a pullback ahead of its next break higher. Yet the turn of momentum at a key resistance cluster suggests bears are regaining control. The S&P 500 had its most bearish week in 5 as its rally stalled at the 50-week MEA, trend resistance, a 161.8% Fibonacci ratio and the September high. The daily chart shows prices closed below trend resistance, and the market has since failed to move back up to 4,000. A bearish outside day formed on Friday to who momentum is trying to turn lower. A break below 3915 assumes bearish continuation, with 3818.2 an initial target, and a break below 3800 brings 3700 into focus.
SP:SPXShort
by CityIndex