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Sp500analysis

NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 200d Averages & 50% Middle line setStock above their 200d averages: (Below 10% ) -------------------------------------------------------------- *6 oct, '08 -16 Marh '09 = 161 Days = End of crash *3 Oct '11 = 7 Days = Bottom *24 Dec '18 = 7 Days =Bottom *9 March '20-30Mar '20 = 21 Days = bottom ******************************************************** Stock above their 200d averages:(Between10%- 20% ) ----------------------------------------------------------- *22 Jul '02 = 7 Days = End of Crash *7 Oct '02 = 7Days =End of Crash * 14 Jan '08-21Jan '08 =7 Days = fasle signal *3 Mar '08-13Mar '08 =14Days = Risky during a crash! *30 Jun '08-14 Jul ' 08 =21 Days = False signal. * 21 Nov '11 = 7 Days =Bottom *24 Aug '15 = 7 Days =Bottom *11 Jan '16- 16 Feb '16 =42 days = Bottom ---------------------------------------------------------------- Stock above their 200d averages:(Above 90% ) *5 Jan '04 = 21 Days= Beginning of a new grand cycle IMO *24 Aug '09-19Oct '09= 63Day = Beginning of N.G.Cycle IMO ---------------------------------------------------------------- Stock above their 200d averages:(Between 80%-90% ) * 1 followed by Bull Markets *5 followed by Pullbacks. (4 %-7%-19%-4%-6%) * How would you now live in the market that this indicator will not keep going up , big opportunity cos. ___________________________________________ * 1/ Conclusion:- Below 10% is your best friend Ever 2/ Between 10%-20% = 62 % success rate =Big Draw back During crash long time to recover !!! 3/ Above 90 % Beginning of new Grand Cycle IMO (nothing else) 4/ Between 80%-90 % =80% we will get a pullback 20% bull Market -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Trade set up Crossing below 50 & crossing back above 50 is where most of the bottoms 25 signals: ----------------------------------------------------------- crash bottom bottom correction bottom up siwng bottom bottom up swing bottom correction bottom correction bottom bottom boottom bottom correction bottom bottom crash bottom bottom bottom bottom ------------------------ 92 % of bottoms happened between Orange dotted and Blue dotted ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Four Golden Cross on this indicator: Bulls: 30.36 % Bulls 21.71 % Bulls 25.18 % Bear 12.49 % Incoming soon ? -------------------------------- Conclusion: 75% Bull market 25% bear followed by big crash -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ************************************************************************** ************************************************************************* ************************SUMMERAY************************************* ***************************************************************************** 1/Getting a Golden Cross soon 75 % bull market 25% Crash 2/ Bottoms of Crashes, Pullbacks and corrections happened using the trade set up. Crossing Below 50 and Crossing up again above 50. 25 signals with 92 % success rate. 3/Below 10 % is your best ever friend, the problem it does not happen allot one in a cycle. 4/between 10%-20% 62 % success rate ( Not crossing below 10%) 5/ Above 90% is confirmation of the beginning of a new cycle ( we are about to get one soon) 6/ Between 80%-90% = 80% we will get a pullback between (4%-19 %) (Not entering the 90%s)
SP:SPX
by samitrading
Savage bull likely pulling back next weekImpressive and incredible bull-run from the lows but it's time to be cautious & patient at these levels. - Hovering near the top of a 6 month resistance TL. - The run seems to be overextended with RSI's overbought at nearly all longer timeframes. - Trading way over the 10 & 20 day EMA's, unlikely to sustain at this pace for much longer. - The SPX gap between 4020 and 4047 will certainly be filled; NDX gap-ups have fueled this rally. - Decreasing volume & SMA approaching spike zone. - 6-hour volume weighted MACD cross-over signaling potential reversal soon. The most recent 5 cross-overs always followed with a pullback as highlighted. I'm not bearish, there is no reason to be bearish as this market can still grind higher but it's foolish to also believe the market won't take a needed breather in the process. ES levels from 3970-4010 are more likely to be tested sooner than later. Note: I am not neglecting the possibility of a rally running into big tech earnings towards the end of the month; market never fails to surprise. Trade safe!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bbourji
1
SPXI think a nice correction back here to the inverted head & shoulders neckline is coming. Would be super bullish and set up for the next parabolic move towards 4600. We have the Fed buying bonds 20-30yr in order to implement YCC. We have also the fed stating the inflation is not a concern. (Which is B S IMO) We have a reopening economy, entire world soon to be vaccinated if not already and Trillions of dollars in stimulus money floating around looking for a vacation and some DOGE coin entries. Don't be a stupid bear and buy the dip like BIG MIKE Fam! As always BIG MIKE PERMA BULL loves you guys and hopes we all get rich AF. ;)
SP:SPXLong
by Big_Mike716
2
SP500 On Steroids With No signs Of PullbackHello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow. SP500 made a new high yesterday and it's looking to make new ones until the Friday closure. We are heading to 1.618 fib level after breaking the middle line of the channel. A breakage of the 1.618 level will take us to retest the upper trend line of the channel. EMA100 seems to holding nice as a support and MA200 yet to be touched from November. Overall very bullish but until when ? Beyond technical levels, the S&P 500s already bullish backdrop has strengthened on the start of April and all technical trends continue to point higher. I will updating this idea, stay tuned. Thank you for reading my post, have a great day, wish you all the best ! Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the market. Feel free to ask anything in the comments :)
TVC:SPXLong
by AM.98
9
SPX's Elliott wave count weekly,for the RSI deep & crazy stuff !Guys it is probable now, that we might have and extended first wave count !!!. Comparing 2009's bottom and Covid's bottom we have very clearly identified two sets of Elliot counts one is Text book count (2009), and the other is since Mach's low and it is still in progress !!! Both are for the RSI (Not SPX's price ) . If this plays out, it would be just insane to say the least. whether it happen or no is something else. Lets follow this with an actual Elliot count for SPX's price and see how does the RSI count follows the actual SPX's price. Either way, this is just another attempts to figure out our location in this "Universe" of SPX :-) . I really guys, pray, you are digging what i am trying to tell you and chart before you . So, what does it mean if we are extended in wave 1 .Well, the Elliott guide are here to explain to us what is next to be excepted. Fibonacci Retracement and Extension Guidelines: If wave 1 is extended, then the size of wave 3 through to the end of wave 5 is often 61.8% – 78.6% relative to the size of wave 1 If wave 1 is extended, then wave 2 and 4 are very likely to be shallow (i.e. 23.6% – 38.2%) If wave 1 is extended, then wave 2 will often end at the level of sub-wave 4 of 1 (i.e. the internal wave 4 of wave 1)
SP:SPX
by samitrading
31
SP500 - The Phantom Menace (Episode I)As can be seen in the graph, after the pandemic, it collected rapidly and it seems that it will continue the rising wedge movement to the end. If the targets for the future will not be 4000+, we can see a very sharp decline as a result of the rising wedge formation from here. In this sense, it would not be wrong to expect the prices to fall back to 3000 levels due to the formation target. However, this 25% decrease would be a disaster for the financial markets. The place to enter the game is as important as where and when we exit the game. It is useful to be careful, especially in light of these inflationary expectations. TVC:SPX It contains only personal views and opinions. Does not contain legal investment advice ...
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by EmoteK
7
SP500 Lifetime OpportunityHi there, SP500 at the moment is a clear buy with target above 4000 If we pay attention to the DXY chart, we are starting a uptrend but still on sideways moment, which SP500 due to many retails shorting it, has been making new highs every week, as long as dollar is weak it will keep doing it, but dollar is soon ending this sideways market to start an uptrend. SP500 then will top at that moment If we look at the elliot wave theory, we are in the final phase, Blow off, close to a top to begin then a new trend. This is a long term view, if your looking to sell it, sell only at the mentioned wave 5, near it. Good luck
U
by fernandoc17
9
SPX's P/E Probability game Average crash 42 % Median crash 37 %All Major crashes since 1902: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year % Crash P/E@ Beg. P/E@ End Days lasted 2020 35 % 26 19 28 2007 57% 21 120 490 2000 50% 27 29!!! 763 1987 36% 21 13.7 28 1980 28% 9 9 609 1973 49% 18 7 609 1968 37% 18 13 483 1961 29% 22 16 147 1937 57% 16 8 1855 1929 84% 18 9 973 1916 37% 7 !!! 14! 1708 1909 28% 13.65 14.54 1764 1906 37% 13 9 637 1902 29 14 11 364 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Extra Info: All reading Above 21 P/E ------------------------------------------- April, 19 - Presents March, 15 - October, 18 crash November, 07 November , 09 crash June , 97 January , 04 bull August, 91 November, 93 bull July 87 July 87 crash March, 61 November 61 crash April 46 July 46 crash May 33 March 34 correction October 21 December 21 bull -------------------------------------- statistic wise, 66.33 we will crash/correct 33.33 bull market (Excluding present time) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tips: ***Only 2 times in history we got reading as high as now. 1/ Current reading is 37 P/E 2/ similar reading A. October , 2008- December 2009 End of a crash B. October 2001 - May 2002 last 1/3 of a crash ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- summary: Probability game is : Average crash 42 % Median crash 37 %
SP:SPX
by samitrading
2