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Sp500analysis

Is your money worth reading "maybe´s"Hello Trenders, Been thinking a lot to or to not publish this signal. Many of you expect a deep on global level, therefore I here show you some mathematic forecast. This may not be the end of the world, yet it is far worse than the most downbeat forecasts. The evidence to support this outlook is in plain sight. Some sixth-grade math is a good place to begin the analysis. Make 2019 economic output 100 (the actual figure is $22 trillion; “100” is 100 percent of that number; a convenient way to measure ups and downs). Assume output drops 20 percent over the second and third quarters of 2020 (many estimates project larger drops; 20 percent is a plausible if conservative estimate). A 20 percent drop for six months equals a 10 percent drop for the full year, assuming the first and fourth quarters are flat on net. A 10 percent drop from 100 = 90 (or $2.2 trillion of lost output). Since 1948, U.S. annual real growth in GDP has never exceeded 10 percent. Since 1984, real growth has never exceeded 5 percent. The highest-growth years since the end of World War II were 8.7 percent in 1950, 8 percent in 1951, and 7.2 percent in 1984. An assumption that real growth will occur in 2021 at a 6 percent annual rate is a generous if unrealistic assumption. Such growth would qualify as a Vshaped recovery. If our new base is 90 (compared with 100 in 2019) and we increase output by 6 percent in 2021, this brings total output to 95.4. If we enter 2022 with the new base of 95.4 and increase that base by 4 percent (so, 95.4 × 1.04), we come to 99.2 in total output by the end of 2022. Here’s the problem. Using 100 as a baseline for 2019 output, and assuming 6 percent real growth in 2021 and 4 percent in 2022 (rates of growth that have not happened on an annual basis since 1984), the economy does not get back to 2019 output levels. The hard truth is that 99.2 < 100. Source : The new great depression (2021). What about if we really have a second wave harder then the first with mutatied covid? I want to add, is not my intention to spread panic or "maybe´s" but the study got my attention. Even the legends will have trouble surviving if this happen. So how can a trader survive in this case condition by trading as only source of income??? Perhaps agricultural commodities will always perform....
SP:SPXEducation
by DeFontain
1
SP500Playing around with this count on the LT weekly chart from b4 2000 dot com bubble. SP500 looks like a very clean 5 up & 5 wave down pattern 1 after another. I am sure that if we dial down into the LTF we could find many complex Flat & zig zag corrections but zoomed out everything looks pretty clean. The W3 that we are currently in lines up with 4600 rough target. I know a W4 is coming but the fib 1.618 lvl is really a better target for W3. So maybe SP500 continues up for now until 4600 and after that W4 will ensue. Hard to tell but I don't see W4 forming as of yet even with all the bearish inflation narratives.
SP:SPXLong
by Big_Mike716
SP500My super smart highly educated fin twit buddy is telling me 4400 is coming b4 any pull back. But IDK TBH I see the waves as complete and W4 should ensue very soon. So Im just open my LT trades and I am trading in and out quickly as we all know from EW wave 4 can be brutal. Or can be quickly bought up so this uncertain aspect of stocks leaves me kinda on the side lines as some FA shows that inflation trade is all about finished and with USA reopening we should cool off and a W4 kinda makes sense. I will say that this dip is a fantastic buying opportunity IMO. Tech sector looks ready to puke so entries in the coming months can set up sweet portfolio positions in 2022. I will be doing an hourly wave analysis in my newly created group and trying to keep all eyes on the W4 pull back. GL guys.
SP:SPXShort
by Big_Mike716
Ponzi Factor Invisible. Hello Trenders and Volatility hunters. Scanning hungry for results, I couldn´t belive my eyes when I saw SP500 Volatility Index. This is unbelivable, the most easy and best ROI with security from Feds in the package included, in my best knowledge. Here is hidden the "millionaire gentleman club" , wonderful. I would appreciate every tip as a newbie. The chart does not require any clarification, is a "no comment" one. At this point I will say good luck but as you don´t need it I say BE HEALTHY. M.M.M Make Motherfuc.in Money Be wise: don´t work for the money, make your money work for you.
CBOE:VIXLong
by DeFontain
SP500 TOP AT 4,395 JUNE 18 (FIBONACCI)THE SP500 SHOULD TOP OUT AT 4,395 THE WEEK OF JUNE 18TH. It is an OPEX week, and this level of 4,395 represents the 4.618 Fibonacci Extension taken off the Dot-Com crash lows, 2007 market top, and 2009 crash lows. So far, the Weekly SPX chart has held the green trend line ever since the Covid March lows. Every dip underneath that line has been a bear trap. These Fibonacci extensions have been respected perfectly, seen most notably at Covid lows, and the September top (to the penny). We are currently stalled at 4,230, the 4.414 extension. The last jump is about a 4% "parabolic" blow off top move. This is NOT the FINAL TOP . Rather, this is wave 4 down within a 5 wave Impulse Wave (Elliott Wave Principle). The bottom for this correction should be no lower than 3,588, the September 2020 highs. Most likely, this bottoms out around 3,700 or 3,800 area in mid July. It will then make one more push (wave 5 of 5 off the Covid lows) to make new all time highs (or not--it may double top). Expected top for Wave 5 is in September and/or October, during which time another significant correction is to be expected. It is to be seen if that will be a major crash, or simply another correction before more highs in 2022 and 2023 (most likely--the FED is not done supporting the markets just yet).
SP:SPXLong
by mjmassens
1
NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 200d Averages & 50% Middle line setStock above their 200d averages: (Below 10% ) -------------------------------------------------------------- *6 oct, '08 -16 Marh '09 = 161 Days = End of crash *3 Oct '11 = 7 Days = Bottom *24 Dec '18 = 7 Days =Bottom *9 March '20-30Mar '20 = 21 Days = bottom ******************************************************** Stock above their 200d averages:(Between10%- 20% ) ----------------------------------------------------------- *22 Jul '02 = 7 Days = End of Crash *7 Oct '02 = 7Days =End of Crash * 14 Jan '08-21Jan '08 =7 Days = fasle signal *3 Mar '08-13Mar '08 =14Days = Risky during a crash! *30 Jun '08-14 Jul ' 08 =21 Days = False signal. * 21 Nov '11 = 7 Days =Bottom *24 Aug '15 = 7 Days =Bottom *11 Jan '16- 16 Feb '16 =42 days = Bottom ---------------------------------------------------------------- Stock above their 200d averages:(Above 90% ) *5 Jan '04 = 21 Days= Beginning of a new grand cycle IMO *24 Aug '09-19Oct '09= 63Day = Beginning of N.G.Cycle IMO ---------------------------------------------------------------- Stock above their 200d averages:(Between 80%-90% ) * 1 followed by Bull Markets *5 followed by Pullbacks. (4 %-7%-19%-4%-6%) * How would you now live in the market that this indicator will not keep going up , big opportunity cos. ___________________________________________ * 1/ Conclusion:- Below 10% is your best friend Ever 2/ Between 10%-20% = 62 % success rate =Big Draw back During crash long time to recover !!! 3/ Above 90 % Beginning of new Grand Cycle IMO (nothing else) 4/ Between 80%-90 % =80% we will get a pullback 20% bull Market -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Trade set up Crossing below 50 & crossing back above 50 is where most of the bottoms 25 signals: ----------------------------------------------------------- crash bottom bottom correction bottom up siwng bottom bottom up swing bottom correction bottom correction bottom bottom boottom bottom correction bottom bottom crash bottom bottom bottom bottom ------------------------ 92 % of bottoms happened between Orange dotted and Blue dotted ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Four Golden Cross on this indicator: Bulls: 30.36 % Bulls 21.71 % Bulls 25.18 % Bear 12.49 % Incoming soon ? -------------------------------- Conclusion: 75% Bull market 25% bear followed by big crash -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ************************************************************************** ************************************************************************* ************************SUMMERAY************************************* ***************************************************************************** 1/Getting a Golden Cross soon 75 % bull market 25% Crash 2/ Bottoms of Crashes, Pullbacks and corrections happened using the trade set up. Crossing Below 50 and Crossing up again above 50. 25 signals with 92 % success rate. 3/Below 10 % is your best ever friend, the problem it does not happen allot one in a cycle. 4/between 10%-20% 62 % success rate ( Not crossing below 10%) 5/ Above 90% is confirmation of the beginning of a new cycle ( we are about to get one soon) 6/ Between 80%-90% = 80% we will get a pullback between (4%-19 %) (Not entering the 90%s)
SP:SPX
by samitrading
Savage bull likely pulling back next weekImpressive and incredible bull-run from the lows but it's time to be cautious & patient at these levels. - Hovering near the top of a 6 month resistance TL. - The run seems to be overextended with RSI's overbought at nearly all longer timeframes. - Trading way over the 10 & 20 day EMA's, unlikely to sustain at this pace for much longer. - The SPX gap between 4020 and 4047 will certainly be filled; NDX gap-ups have fueled this rally. - Decreasing volume & SMA approaching spike zone. - 6-hour volume weighted MACD cross-over signaling potential reversal soon. The most recent 5 cross-overs always followed with a pullback as highlighted. I'm not bearish, there is no reason to be bearish as this market can still grind higher but it's foolish to also believe the market won't take a needed breather in the process. ES levels from 3970-4010 are more likely to be tested sooner than later. Note: I am not neglecting the possibility of a rally running into big tech earnings towards the end of the month; market never fails to surprise. Trade safe!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bbourji
1
SPXI think a nice correction back here to the inverted head & shoulders neckline is coming. Would be super bullish and set up for the next parabolic move towards 4600. We have the Fed buying bonds 20-30yr in order to implement YCC. We have also the fed stating the inflation is not a concern. (Which is B S IMO) We have a reopening economy, entire world soon to be vaccinated if not already and Trillions of dollars in stimulus money floating around looking for a vacation and some DOGE coin entries. Don't be a stupid bear and buy the dip like BIG MIKE Fam! As always BIG MIKE PERMA BULL loves you guys and hopes we all get rich AF. ;)
SP:SPXLong
by Big_Mike716
2