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Sp500analysis

S&P500 3 Months Trading Channel Hey guys, didn't post new set-ups because the market is quite boring right now. But explored some ETF and found an idea for stable trades. As we know, ETF's and some pairs are like to move in long channels, which is pretty easy to trade. Here at the S&P500 we can see the raising channel from 5th January and I mark the zones, where you can open long positions, as the channel is raising I will recommend to trade only long positions. What we're looking for before open the position: 1) The price have to cross the support level of the channel 2) As a help you can use Awesome Oscillator (if the oscillator is changing color and starting to raise up) you can use this as confirmation to open the position. IMPORTANT! Don't forget to follow RM strategy. Use SL orders a bit lower from price crossing the support line! Trade stocks and ETF at BingX with no special requests, only using crypto by my link: bingx.com
AMEX:SPYLong
by CarpBuro
SPX500 - BULLISH OR BULLISH? (TARGET 4910 AND BEYOND)A bit of a late post as the market is moving faster than my fingers can type but let's see how relevant this is regardless. Here is what I see: What is on the chart? (follow the steps) 1) A strong price accumulation that gives us a potential liquidity target for later on! For now bullish until said otherwise. 2) The BOS level that serves as support. 3) The formation of a trendline which is bullish. 4) Our 1 Hour bearish FVG that may stunt price temporarily. Hence my trajectory leading downwards first! 5) ( NOW ) An accumulation structure that may propel price or lead it lower to our GOLDEN LEVEL! 6) The entry of the Gods. Yes, I am very enthusiastic but if I were to enter, it is here. We have an FVG + fib reload zone + trendline + hourly Kumo. I mean what else does a trader need? A crystal ball? No. 7) The final target. If we're bullish, what better than an ATH as a target? As always, stay cold headed (unlike myself because when I see such a beautiful confluence of entry conditions, I just get excited) and happy trading! ;)
FX:SPX500Long
by Lexi_Is_Trading
SPX/S&P 500 FUTURESHello fellow traders, Understanding the current markets are awful as of the this year, price suddenly sky rocket like a balloons on space. My idea is base on Distribution since the COVID 2020 fall of -35%, the price retrace back for 3 years on the run with almost 45% if price goes to my analysis atleast 4966$. Then we might see a fall or Down back to the COVID 2020 fall. This is only my view, Not executing unless price reach 4966, maybe next month or end of the month, We have FED/FOMC in the last day of the month. Trade at your own risk. position yourself at higher possibility .ofcourse this idea has better odds on making a short positions. This is not a financial advice. Follow for more higher context. Swing trades. Stay safe folks.
SP:SPXShort
by D1GITALTRADES
Quad Witching: Mark Your Calendar for 2024Quad-witching is a phenomenon unique to the stock and options markets, occurring four times a year. It captures a flurry of activity sparked by the simultaneous expiration of four types of derivatives contracts: stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures. The third Friday of March, June, September, and December marks these critical days in the trading calendar, bringing with them distinct opportunities and challenges for investors and traders alike. Quad Witching S&P 500 Index Price Drops 2023 March -1.1% June -0.37% September -1.22% December -0.1% Average Drop 0.7% The Basics of Quad Witching Quad Witching is a critical event for anyone engaged in the stock market due to its pronounced effects on market volatility. Understanding its mechanics, significance, and impact helps investors and traders navigate the complexities of financial markets. Definition of Quadruple Witching Quadruple Witching is a term used to describe the simultaneous expiration of four types of financial derivatives: stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures. This event happens every quarter, specifically on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. It poses distinct considerations for market participants. Significance of Quadruple Witching Dates It is important for those who are involved in the financial markets to mark the calendar for Quadruple Witching Dates. These days witness increased trading activity as investors and traders adjust or close out their derivative positions. This period of adjustment is a display of strategic decision-making as market participants act to manage their investments before contracts expire. Impact on Market Volatility During Quad Witching, there is a simultaneous expiration of derivative contracts that can lead to higher trading volume and market volatility. Traders and investors need to be aware of the potential fluctuations in prices resulting from the amplified trading activity, which can significantly impact the short-term valuation of securities.
SP:SPXEducation
by liberatedstocktrader
1
SPX500 - SHORT STRUCTURE IDEA (TARGET 4725)What's on the chart? 1) An old high that marked a strong year for 2023. 2) A rebound in a weekly FVG that earlier served as a bullish signal for prior trading sessions. 3) In the process of that rebound, a 4H bullish FVG was formed which will serve as our target area + fibs. 4) The 2023 high was broken. 5) IMPORTANT: the new high wasn't taken out. Hmmm.. suspicious. That to me is a sign of weakness from the bulls. 6) On this flop of bullish momentum, a bearish 4H FVG was formed. 7) Market structure shift with a low taken out. Do we expect a rebound? Well I don't know. I'm not here to claim that I predict the future like most twitter gurus will imply. But if it does, this is how I see the rest go down. 8) A rebound in the 4H FVG, this is crucial for a short setup because it would imply a lower high. Super important!! Price doesn't need to go that high though to find a short setup. We could just break our imaginary trendline and that's it. 9) The descent into the abyss of short profits (or liquidations lol).
FX:SPX500Short
by Lexi_Is_Trading
SPY 2 Week ForecastAMEX:SPY I'm doing a quick analysis of basic price action from the start of 2024 thru the end of January. AMEX:SPY $475 is a possible support High and Lows for this year are identified, a break of either of those could generate a more significant move in the same direction. We could see a lot of chop between AMEX:SPY $478 and $472, but if $472 holds then there is still a case for more All Time Highs in the future. Using a fib extension from this year only, 1.618 value would put us around AMEX:SPY $490 - $492 which for me a reasonable move up. 3% or so is something SPY can do in a week easy. Using an offset moving average , $476 would become support 50 days out. This is just what the moving average gives, but it seems reasonable. JPM issues $5100 price target for SP:SPX this year 2024.
AMEX:SPY
by DontSlamTheDoor
S&P500 Next Support LevelClosely monitor the zone indicated in above chart. Disclaimer: The information and analysis provided in this publication are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any securities. The author and TradingView are not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the content presented herein. Always consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
SP:SPX
by rukshan2102
New Top, Old Resistance: Mixed News Question Bullish SupertrendNew Top, Old Resistance: Mixed News Question Bullish Supertrend Dear Esteemed Traders, TECHNICAL ANALYTICS Zooming out on the chart, ES hit a level that might be a resistance since January 2022, formed by a previous top. Historic tops often act as a resistance. Alone this would be a weak indication, but the price managed to hit that level at the same time when it also met the rising resistance from historic bottoms. See the red line on the chart. I can observe double bearish signals on a bullish super trend, in which the price seems to have crossed down together with the EMAs in the previous month. I wouldn't call super trend bearish yet, but the so far strong bullishness of it became questionable. MACD made a bearish cross and made a journey towards the bearish side of the indicator below the price chart. RSI went extremely negative after an extended period spent in the upper half of the indicator. It means that ES might have been overbought, and the market signals the start of a correction to this overboughtness. The possible correction move paired with a volume that matches the buy volume candles of the mentioned rally. This volume profile further powers the idea that the people who have been buying ES since October might feel the level to take profit on their investments. The Money Flow Index (MFI) at the bottom and Bull-Bear Power (BBP) above it share the bearish view. BBP isn't too bearish, but it's been showing a weakening bullish power since December. Finally, the $4736 support seems to be holding up the market from crashing. If the support breaks, the price can fall to the next support. I observed a support of around $4600. These are the analytics, I found, but let's consider news trading. NEWS The Federal Reserve has signaled its intention to raise interest rates in an effort to combat inflation. This could weigh on stocks, as higher interest rates can make borrowing more expensive for businesses and consumers. Recent economic data has been mixed, with some indicators showing signs of slowing growth. This could raise concerns about the health of the economy and further dampen investor sentiment. Earnings season is underway, and some companies have reported disappointing results. This could lead investors to expect lower earnings growth overall, which could put downward pressure on stock prices. In total, I wouldn't call ES straight bearish, but I claim the bullish trend to weaken and I'm looking for shorts below the $4736 support line. Greetings, Ely
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Elysian_Mind
Weekly Macro S&P 500 AnalysisThe 4270.00 level can contain selling through Q1, above which 4634.50 remains a 3 - 5 week target, 4864.25 likely over the next 3 - 5 months. Upside, 4634.50 can contain weekly buying pressures, while closing above 4634.50 indicates the targeted 4864.25 by the end of February where the market can top out into Q2. Downside, a settlement below 4270.00 signals 4113.50 within 2 - 3 weeks, secondary long- term support able to contain selling into later in 2024 and above which a longer-term bullish dynamic remains in effect over that time horizon.
CME_MINI:ES2!
by SpecialeAnalysis
1-Treasury bills give the same returns as S&P 500 with less riskWall Street Investment banks are predicting various prices for the S&P 500 close at the end of 2024. But if the current 1-year Treasury Bill Yield is the same as the estimates then why bother buying the S&P 500? It would be safer buying bills and you may get an equal return. This piece of analysis will look at: Historical accuracy of Wall Street Banks S&P 500 estimates for the year ending Current predictions for S&P 500 estimates for year-end 2024 The current yield on 1-year Treasury Bills Comparison between the estimates for the S&P 500 vs. 1-year Treasury bills. Historical analysis According to research done by Bespoke Investment Group and by CNBC. Excluding 2008, the analyst overshoot of the S&P 500 actual performance over the past 15 years goes down from being over 9% off to a miss of 3.4%. And the fact that analysts overshot the actual market performance 12 out of 15 times, means they did undershoot it three times. When looking at their S&P 500 price target prediction, analysts undershot the actual performance in seven of the past 20 years.1 Historically, these forecasts have often underestimated the actual market performance, especially during the bullish period since 2009, when they were off target seven out of nine times. The average annual projection tends to be around 9.3%, aligned with the S&P's historical average gain. 2 So, overall, excluding the outlier of 2008, analysts tended to overshoot their predictions of the S&P 500 performance by a decreasing margin over the past 15 years, moving from an initial overestimation of over 9% to a more moderate miss of 3.4%. Their track record shows a pattern of overshooting the market's actual performance in 12 out of 15 instances, with just three instances of undershooting. Current predictions BMO Capital Markets: $5,100 Deutsche Bank: $5,100 RBC Capital Markets: $5,000 UBS: $4,700 Goldman Sachs: $5,000 Bank of America: $5,000 Barclays: $4,800 Wells Fargo: $4,600 Morgan Stanley: $4,500 J.P. Morgan: $4,200 Average = $4,800 Median = $4,900 Mode = $5,000 1-Year Treasury Bill The current yield on the 1-Year Treasury Bill is 5.061%. The reasons for the yield being somewhat high are: Strong Economic Data: The resilience of the U.S. economy, especially the robustness of the jobs market, has surprised many experts. Despite expectations for a slowdown, the economy continues to perform well, leading to higher yields. The Federal Reserve's cautious approach to cutting interest rates too quickly is another reflection of this strong economic backdrop. Fed's Cautionary Stance: The Federal Reserve is wary of cutting rates swiftly due to concerns about inflation and the tightness of the labour market. They aim to maintain a balanced approach, keeping rates at a level that won't spur excessive inflation but also won't hinder economic growth. The shift in Fed Messaging: Recent messaging from the Fed indicated less aggressive rate cuts in the future than previously expected. This change in outlook, particularly with the Dot Plot showing fewer rate cuts in 2024, has influenced bond market sentiment. Increased Treasury Issuance: The U.S. Treasury's substantial pace of issuing new debt has disrupted the supply-demand equilibrium in the bond market. The unexpected announcement of raising a significant amount of money through bond sales has added pressure to yields as more bonds flood the market. Yield Curve Dynamics: The yield curve, which had previously inverted (short-term yields higher than long-term yields), is now experiencing a lessening of this inversion. Typically, this occurs as short-term rates fall while long-term rates rise. However, the current situation is unique as the long-term yields are increasing while short-term rates remain relatively stable. The surge in Treasury yields reflects a confluence of factors: a resilient U.S. economy outperforming expectations, the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to rate cuts amid concerns about inflation and a tight labour market, a shift in Fed messaging signalling fewer future rate reductions, increased government borrowing, and the unique dynamics of the yield curve. This unexpected rise in yields diverges from earlier predictions of a decline, shaping the current landscape of the bond market and influencing borrowing rates for consumers and businesses alike. One's prediction of the future yield in a year may be higher or lower. But regardless, when you buy a bond it is stuck at that yield since it represents the interest earned. S&P 500 vs Treasury bills Yesterday's close of the S&P 500 was $4,567.18. If we assume the S&P 500 will reach the average and median estimates that represents a 5.10% and 7.13% return on investment respectively. However, as we have established above looking at the historical analysis of Wall Street estimates they tend to overestimate. Most of the time the S&P 500 closed below their estimate. Wall Street estimates between 2000 and 2018 have an average overshoot of 4.40% from the table above. So there is reason to assume they will do the same this year. If we assume the estate's average and median return of 5.10% and 7.13% respectively are overshooting. That means we might as well invest in 1-year Treasury Bills. Why? Because Treasury bills are safer, and guaranteed return and if they are giving similar returns to the more risker S&P 500 over the next year then why bother with the risker alternative? It makes more sense to just buy 1-year Treasury Bills. Conclusion In the landscape of investment choices for the year ahead, the comparison between the S&P 500 and 1-year Treasury Bills offers compelling insights. The historical analysis of Wall Street's predictions demonstrates a consistent pattern of overestimation, signalling a potential trend that might repeat itself in the current estimates for the S&P 500 for year-end 2024. With the current projections showcasing potential returns for the S&P 500, it's crucial to consider the safety and reliability offered by 1-year Treasury Bills, especially given their current yield, standing at 5.061%. The compelling argument arises when assessing the historical trend of overestimation by financial analysts in forecasting S&P 500 performance. If these estimations continue to overshoot, as historical data suggests, the seemingly safer investment in 1-year Treasury Bills could provide comparable returns with considerably lower risk. The prudent approach might lean toward the Bills, given their guaranteed return and stability, particularly if they yield similar or better returns than the potentially riskier S&P 500. The choice between the S&P 500 and Treasury Bills becomes a contemplation of risk versus stability. While the S&P 500 might offer potential gains, the historical trend and current projections invite consideration of the Bills as a safer and possibly equally rewarding investment option for the upcoming year. Ultimately, it might be prudent for investors to weigh these factors carefully before making their investment decisions for the year ahead. 1 www.cnbc.com 2 seekingalpha.com
SP:SPX
by BlackbearTrader
S&P500 (@ES @MES)We are currently in an upwards rally in the markets With a trend fib being pulled from our larger lows we have a coinciding level of the 50% retracement converging with the top line of our rising wedge which is a bearish pattern (depending on how long this march takes we could meet our golden ratio 61.8% at the top of our wedge creating a yearly double top as a possibility also).....this is purely up to how fast we continue to move higher We must assume price will continue to respect this rising wedge (which is a bearish pattern which breaks to the downside 65%+ of the time) If we break out to the upside we can see a 61.8% retrace and grab a nice throw over or we have a blast of scenario and we march to new all time highs we must wait and see But for now i am expecting a pull back once we hit our 50% fib
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by LucrorStrategies
S&P500 Hello Traders! Today I am focusing on the S&P500's next move and considering that we are approaching the Christmas period and that I am expecting a year-end bullrun towards 4700 I believe that at the moment the index could retrace towards 4525 with a maximum extension towards 4485 to load some long positions at better prices and then restart towards the highs. Targets are determined by fibonacci's retracement, let us consider the period of the extension of the last restart until exhaustion. Targets are the levels between 4525-4485. Thanks.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by IllyrianTrader