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Netflix What is going on? Netflix What is going on? After 6 years of exponential growth + 1'000% (2015 - 2021) the time has come for an immense profit taking. Losing 70% (going from a $ 300b to a $ 100b market cap. This capital will be used to refinance the company and to develop new commercial products. However, losing the SUPPORT 430/380 now NEW RESISTANCE. We find 3 main supports, potential reversal points. S1: $ 180 / $ 210 (most likely) S2: $ 130 / $ 110 (average probable) S3: $ 60 / $ 70 (least likely) Only when the Nasdaq 100 inert its medium-term bearish trend could we see a real low point with new entry points. Buy at the lows and sell at the highs. (this is the secret) For info, contact us privately LPI.sa
NASDAQ:NFLX
by LPI_Investments
2
Federal Reserve Crossroads - 3/20/2022ES. Daily view. First off, you can't solve supply chain issues (Keynesian economics) with rate hikes. Rate hikes might slow down some demand due to lack of cheap credit, but this type of inflation goes much deeper than just the Fed's money printing. Economies are complex beasts that don't have one simple cause or answer. Even the 2008 Recession had several factors that aligned all at the same time which was an anomaly in itself. Normies kept thinking that the money printing (treasury securities purchases or bond purchases) was the cause of all the inflation. That is an intellectually lazy viewpoint. That is like saying all of the US' problems were caused by obesity/guns/capitalism/whatever singular variable. Here are some supply chain issues that are unrelated to money printing. For the sake of saving up space, you can look up the articles yourself in the following subjects. 1) Crude Oil - Oil production was approx. 78 million barrels per day throughout 2021. Oil demand was around 96 million barrels per day throughout 2021. So, there is already an 18 million barrels per day deficit. What happens when demand outweigh supply over time? Price increases. Back in 2020, lenders and banks abandoned oil companies after oil futures crashed. Think about it. If an oil company almost went bankrupt back in 2020, they will need more workers for oil production. What if there are no loans available? This results in less production. Ironically, this is the one time where that cheap credit could've helped back then. OPEC also agreed to production cuts back in 2020. Those production cuts don't expire until Sept 2022. 2) Grains or food - Natural gas is the most costly component used in manufacturing nitrogen fertilizer and for ammonia plants. When natural gas (refined from crude oil) prices skyrocket, then the cost to farm also increases. Much of the agricultural industry has been consolidated to an oligopoly (www.ers.usda.gov). With this much consolidation, agricultural companies have pricing power over farming equipment and supplies. Meaning, they can upcharge their products when selling to farms. If one of the biggest agricultural corporations makes one mistake in supply chains, then it tends to ripple throughout the whole industry. Furthermore, China's Ministry of Agriculture warned of the worst winter wheat crop in China's history. Russia and Ukraine accounted for nearly 30% of grain in the global supply chains. So what happens when you have 3 countries which are struggling to produce crops? Food prices will rise. Did you know that Kansas (farming state) is facing a drought emergency too? 3) Semiconductors - It takes 2,200 gallons of water to produce a 30 cm wafer. Taiwan is one of the biggest semiconductor producers in the world. Taiwan has been facing one of its worst droughts in decades. Less water means less semiconductors... which means prices increase due to scarcity. 4) Cars - With oil prices ramping up, it's pretty obvious that producing cars also becomes more expensive. Lots of machinery (that needs oil and natural gas) involved to produce a car. With this list of issues, can you see how lazy it is to just pin money printing as the source of inflation? I cannot see how rate hikes would solve droughts. I cannot see how rate hikes could produce more oil. Powell was not exactly lying when he said that the global supply chains are causing a lot of the inflation. In fact, that statement was more true given the situations above. So now the Federal Reserve is at a crossroads. Hiking rates too slow and might exacerbate inflation rates. Hiking rates too fast and that might cause a recession and hurt working class Americans more. The average credit card debt per person alone is around $6,000. The average debt is around $38,000. That extra interest expense hurts the working class more than it hurts the top 0.1% incomes. Hiking rates way too fast was the Bank of Japan's mistake back in the early 1990s. There are a few scenarios ahead. Scenario 1 (Best Case): Somehow, the supply chain issues above get resolved and inflation rates enter into a downtrend this year. This is not too likely since droughts and oil production take more than just a few months to resolve. If this scenario happens, then the Federal Reserve would have much less pressure to hike rates. Then the big funds would think "the worst is over" and might buy more. Scenario 2: If commodities (especially oil and grains) settle down by June 2022, then the Federal Reserve would continue to hike rates at a slower rate (0.25% per quarter according to the Fed's dot plot). This was the expected path anyways. Institutions would then play defensively and would be in capital preservation mode until the uncertainty is over. That means we might see volatility again later this year, but more subtle than scenario 3. Scenario 3 (Worst Case): Commodities (especially oil and grain), PPI, and CPI reports are still rising at extreme high rates throughout this year. That would pressure the Federal Reserve to raise rates even faster than in recent history. That type of scenario might cause stagflation for the first time since the 1970s... which was facing influenza and multiple wars back then. The time before that was 1920-1921 with the aftermath of WWI and the Spanish Flu... Gee... those situations sound oddly familiar... That might cause institutions to play very defensively and might make retail panic as well. Company costs would also rise due to commodities skyrocketing. This scenario usually leads to a deflationary recession afterwards. Remember, the Federal Reserve must maintain an image of stability and calmness. Whatever they announce, the public will exaggerate it in some way. That's why the Chairman must remain "bland" or have a poker face. On the flip side, given these 3 scenarios, you now see why big funds and institutions are uncertain. They are in the same boat of trying to read the Federal Reserve too. This can go in multiple directions. It's not bad news that scares the big money. It's uncertainty that scares them. I'm not sure where this goes myself which is why I have been playing very defensively since the 30-05 bond yield curve flattened in early December. We are entering a seasonally bullish season of the year soon. So, a medium-term rally is more likely than not. Getting closer to June, I'm less optimistic to say the least. I'll playing defensively or doing smaller trades until I see more signals by June's FOMC.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Itsallsotiresome
1
Is SP500 resuming its up trend?Since the beginning of the year, SP500 lost almost 20% of its value from top to bottom (close to entering bear market territory) However, the drop from the top looks corrective and 4100 can very well be the end of this correction. Technically, the drop under 4250-4270 support was quickly reversed and is a false break and, if SP500 manages to break back above 4400, we can have continuation to the upside. For this bullish scenario to be valid, 4250 must hold
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
5
SP500 WeeklyLooking at the SP500 Weekly chart, we have so far retraced about 11% from the top, and it doesn't seem to be the bottom. The market appears to be going for another test of the 4200-4250 area. If the support breaks, we could reach the 4000-3900 zone. If we try to simulate Covid not happening, consider that the market has seen a higher growth before Covid, take into account all other factors (FED, inflation, current tensions) and try to simulate longer-term behavior, it also brings us towards the 3900-4000 area. The area of 3900-4000 seems to be where Weekly EMA200 would be touched, which SP500 likes to test. On top of that, the correction of SP500 would be close to 20%, which doesn't sound unreasonable. If SP500 weekly support at 4200-4250 breaks, it could take up until late May for the market to find the bottom and reverse the trend. Better safe than sorry.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by alphascala
S&P 500 to reach 4118 or 3990.5 before next bounceIf S&P 500 closes below support level of 4291.25, which has held since July of 2021, then that would be confirmation of the following idea. The S&P 500 is likely headed to 4118 or 3990.5, which are the fib extensions of the downtrend which began on Jan 4, 2022, marked as point A on the chart. Points A, B, and C on the chart were used to create a "Trend-based Fib extension" with the same tool that is built into Trading View. A close above 4291.25 would threaten to invalidate this idea.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Cowston
SP500 shaking on the news 🦐SP500 after the doubletop over the monthly trendline at the 4800 melt to the support. The market reacted at the support area and tested twice the resistance area at the 4590 level creating another reversal. Furthermore, the market reacted to our beloved 0.618 Fibonacci level of the previous impulse. How can we approach this scenario? We will monitor the market during the day and if e Plancton's Academy rules will be satisfied we will set a nice short order. –––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. • 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. • 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. • 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. • 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. • ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by InkyGrip
6
The Fall of Degens - 2/21/2022ES weekly. Degen is a slang for degenerate gamblers. Many degens were born from the 2020-2021 bull run. In a bull market, everyone is a genius. In a bear or volatile market, only those who practice risk management survive. The new traders will find out very soon as to why very few people make it in trading long-term. As stated in the VIX post, the market cares about two things: certainty and uncertainty. What we are seeing is nothing brand new. This same type volatility happened in 2011, 2015, and 2018. Each of those years caused a wipe out of gamblers on both sides... Well, after almost every bear got margin called on the way up. Primarily, this is a transitioning market. Why is this uncertain? Everyone is certain that rate hikes are coming. However, no one knows that the rate hike schedule looks like. As in, what will the rates look like after the first one? What is expected and based on the Fed notes: March 11th - The end of Federal Reserve's bond purchasing (money printing) March 15-16th - FOMC and the first rate hike of around 0.50% July to September - Fed begins rolling (bonds) off the balance sheet. That government talk for reversing the money printing. September to October - Most likely some election volatility and sector rotation before midterm elections By end of 2022, interest rates should be at 1.25%. By end of 2023, interest rates should be at 2.25% Based on these expectations and notes, I deduce that the Federal Reserve's schedule for future rate hikes should be published around June FOMC. Maybe May FOMC. That element is the unknown. If the rate at the end is 2.00 - 2.50%, that is already expected and markets would barely react to it. Above 2.50%, then we would see an even bigger bear market. Although, I won't be surprised to see NQ be 30% below its highs. I'm seeing a weird hybrid of 2015 and 2018. Think about why this is uncertain and scaring institutions. If there is a war, there is the defense sector. If there is a pandemic, there is biotech. What do you do when the interest rate is not confirmed and the future monetary policy is unknown? Uncertain. Judging by the reverse repo facilities, it seems that institutions would rather pay the interest expense for holding cash than to buy without certainty. Basically, there is plenty of cash at the sidelines, but no direction. It's like having a full tank of gas, but you are lost in a desert with no map/GPS. Now, why is the Federal Reserve taking its sweet time? It's because the Fed Board remember the Paul Volcker years and his several emergency meetings which caused panic. Those panic rate hikes to 15% caused the third worst recession in US history. What they want to do is to see if inflation rates would plateau or enter a downtrend first for Q1 and Q2 of 2022. Basically, I'm sitting tight and trading small until I see some sort of certainty. What I learned from 2015 and 2018 is to stay out of unpredictable markets. Predictability is profitable. I can wait. This is why some of the best traders whom I know have a career other than trading. It helps them be patient and not go crazy from watching the screen. I tried trading full-time and it got boring pretty fast. From a psychological view, the career also helps calm me down. If I make a bad trade, I can tell myself that I'll recover. I'm not kidding. I know a few traders who are making more than $150k per year trading and their job pays $70-100k. They kept their jobs because for the same psychological reason. They tried trading full-time and ironically got worse.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Itsallsotiresome
1
SP500 MF-W1-BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN !Last weekly candle triggered a BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN ! Indeed, the failure to : 1) Recover above the Mid Bollinger Band 2) Hold above Kijun-Sen and Tenkan-Sen is confirming this persisting downward pressure in this weekly time frame. Looking ahead, it is likely to see an ongoing downside move with temporary recovery attempts in a countertrend tactical move only... Such kind of tactical rally, should, as already mentioned several times, be monitored closely with a disciplined RR (Risk Reward) approach. STRATEGIC TARGETS REMAINS THE FOLLOWING : 1) Retest of former low @ 4186.50 (also roughly the weekly top clouds zone and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2'174-4'808.25 BIG RALLY or + 121 % !) 2) The bottom of the weekly clouds which also coincides with the 38.2% Fib ret @ 3'802 3) the 50% Fibonacci retracement @ 3'491.25 4) and the 61.8% Fib ret @ 3'180.25 Do you think, such kind of correction is possible ? Honestly speaking, I think so ! Why ? The answer is pretty simple : Watch from where the SP500 came from (2'174) and after a performance of more than 120%, a minimum correction of 38.2% should, at least, occurs and even 50% towards 3'491.25 ! And...this would not affect the long term (monthly) uptrend. LAST BUT NOT LEAST, AS A GENTLE REMINDER, THE MONTHLY KIJUN-SEN IS ALSO AT 3'491.25 AND ONLY A CLEAR BREAKOUT OF THAT SUPPORT LEVEL WOULD DESTROY THE ONGOING LONG TERM BULLISH PICTURE. By the way, if you like my analysis and if you find any added value on your trading activities, please do not forget to like it and for those who do not follow me yet on Trading View, please do not forget either to add Ironman8848 in your following list. And for those who do not have access to Trading View yet (from my personal point of view, the best charting application available at the moment) please do not hesitate to use the following link to sign up : www.tradingview.com Many thanks in advance. Have a nice weekend Ironman8848. & Jean-Pierre Burki
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Ironman8848
3
SP500 MF-H4-POTENTIAL DOUBLE TOP IN PROGRESS !Following the nice rally seen over the last couple of days, recent price action triggered a potential double top formation in progress , coupled with a RSI bearish divergence and last but not least, the last H4 candle is showing also a BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN. Therefore, upcoming candle price action should be watch at very carefully as a failure to recover and close at least above the middle level (@ 4'574) of the last black candle or better above the former high, which would trigger respectively, either a PIERCING LINE PATTERN or even better a BULLISH ENGULFING PATTERN, ,would be the second signal of a trend reversal calling for lower level towards : 1) 4'535 2)4'515-4'510 (H4 cluster support) 3) 4 hours clouds 4) 4'442.50 (double top trigger level & H4 clouds bottom A breakout of the 4'442.50 level would confirm the double top, targeting 4'295.25 or a retest of former congestion support seen at the end of January ! Globally, watch the 4 hourly clouds as the major support area and watch at the daily clouds (in overlay) as the major resistance area in this 4 hour/1 day time frame. As usual, monitor closely price action in shorter intraday time frame which will help you to detect early signal(s) in order to validate or invalidate the implications previously mentioned. Have a nice trading day Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Ironman8848
SP500MF-UPSIDE CORRECTIVE MOVE OVER !WEEKLY (W1) This weekly price action is showing a recovery attempt which failed to breakout the Mid Bollinger Band on a weekly closing basis ! In addition the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 4'580.75 has been filled (high being 4'586) and the weekly closing was @ 4'492.50 which is exactly on the razor's hedge (double top trigger level !!!) Therefore, this recent upside corrective move should be seen as OVER ! Likely to see at least a retest of the former low, below the 4'200 (top of the weekly clouds support zone) during the upcoming session (s) Just as a gentle reminder : 4'186.50 is ONLY THE 23.6 % FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT OF THE 2'174-4'808.25 RALLY... meaning that there is plenty of space to the downside... 1) the 38.2% Fib being @ 3'802 (important as it is the bottom of the weekly clouds !) 2) the 50% Fib ret @ 3'491.25 (Monthly Kijun-Sen) and the 61.8% Fib ret @ 3'180.25 Last but not least, the monthly clouds top level is currently @ 2'930 !! Have a look at the price action seen in Q1 2020... Never forget to look back on the long term picture ! DAILY (D1) Rejection a couple of days ago from the daily clouds resistance zone, failure to stay above both the Mid Bollinger Band and the daily downtrend resistance line. Last daily closing below the Kijun-Sen but still above the Tenkan-Sen. Lagging line again below the clouds. RSI failed to hold above 50. Watch 4'425 as the pivot point for further development; a failure to hold above that level on a daily closing basis would reopen the door for lower levels towards the former low @ 4'212, roughly the double top target of 4'175.75. Below the weekly clouds zone should be seen as the next very important support area (4'157-3810) (corroboration with the weekly analysis above mentioned). On the upside, ONLY a successful breakout of the 4'600 ahead of the "VERY THIN" daily clouds resistance zone (4'650) would force to a view reassessment of the expected bearish scenario and if this recovery occurs, then the focus would be, at least, for a retest of the ATH above 4'800 4 HOURS (H4) Recent price action in this time frame is showing the following : 1) Failure to recover above the Mid Bollinger Band 2) Last H4 closing level below the Tenkan Sen 3) RSI converging to the downside Looks like further downside move is expected over the upcoming trading sessions. Interesting to note that currently the clouds zone support is very thin (twist !!) and therefore it looks very fragile too. A failure on H4 closing basis to hold above the clouds would directly put the focus on the congestion bottom of the former lows reached between Jan 24th and Jan 28th (4'212.75-4'266.25). 1 HOUR (H1) Currently in an ongoing new downtrend channel with its top resistance line around 4'530 (H1 clouds) and its bottom support 4'430. Therefore, on this H1 time frame, there are 2 levels to watch : 4'530 4'430 A breakout of one of those levels would give the direction for the near future. RSI @ 47.02 Lagging line below the clouds. All the best Take care Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Ironman8848
NQ1 100 MF-D1-DOJI EVENING STAR !DAILY (D1) Following the recent rally seen over the last couple of days, yesterday's price action triggered a "DOJI EVENING STAR" which closed slightly above the Mid Bollinger Band..but as this kind of pattern is usually bearish, the Nasdaq opened today with a gap and roughly at the level of the ongoing uptrend support line. Today's price acton should be monitor very closely as a failure to recover above the Mid Bollinger Band (15'013) on a daily closing basis would add further selling pressure calling for a move towards the first significant support level @ 14483 (TS); a daily closing level below 14483 would, again, put the Nasdaq below the former downtrend resistance line and therefore increase the selling pressure accordingly, towards the weekly clouds support area (in overlay on the Daily chart( 13'975-12'903) RSI failed to recover above 50, being currently @ 43.50. Lagging line reversed too. THE STRATEGIC TECHNICAL TARGET REMAINS @ 12'894 ! Only a sustainable move above 15200 would force to a view reassessment of the expected ongoing bearish scenario. 4 HOURS (H4) Currently, still above the H4 clouds but already below TS and MBB in a new ongoing downtrend (in this H4 time frame) The Lagging lane is again below the clouds . Watch the clouds as the next support area (14'680-14'210); 38,2% Fib ret @ 14'714 50.0 % Fib ret @ 14'545 61.8% Fib ret @ 14'377 and 78.6% Fib ret @ 14'136 (roughly the bottom of the H4 clouds zone ) RSI slightly above 50 @ 50.77 1 HOUR (H1) Currently in the clouds ! A failure to stay within the clouds and quickly recover above it would add conviction for further downside towards the levels previously mentioned in H4 In this short term time frame the 15'000-15'200 area should be clearly broken on a closing basis; otherwise, as already mentioned the downward selling presure will accelerate the move ! Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Ironman8848
SP500 MF-MULTI TIME FRAMES-CRITICAL !MONTHLY (M1) January closing level @ 4'504.25 was above the Tenkan-Sen (4'418.75) which is in this time frame a first positive signal. The pivot level in this long term time horizon is @ 4'637,50 (middle level of the December candle) A monthly closing above this pivot level would trigger a piercing line which would be positive for the upcoming month having in mind a potential retest of the ATH. WEEKLY ( W1) The ongoing week price action is currently facing critical level (s) to breakout on the upside which are the following : 1) the ongoing downtrend resistance line 2) the Mid Bollinger Band A weekly closing above both of those levels would also give additional support for further upside A failure to do it would reopen the door for lower levels and a weekly closing below 4'500 would remember the potential double top ! DAILY (D1) Yesterday's closing level was above the Kijun-Sen which is also a first positive signal... but still below the Mid Bollinger Band and below the important daily clouds resistance area (4550-4645) In addition, looking at the recent (sharp rally) we can draw a new support trend line (very steep 74 degrees !! and after such kind of move we can not ruled out a mirror effect if the SP500 failed to hold above this steep support trend line RSI slightly above the 50 level, currently @ 51.04 4 HOURS (H4) Recent price action triggered a RISING WEDGE which has been, firstly broken and followed, currently by a pullback attempt in progress. Last couple of trading hours are showing some lack of momentum (small candles and small bodies !) which is adding some uncertainty and indecision about further development. Ongoing H4 candle closing level should be watch at very carefully as it might add more clues for the upcoming trading hours. 1 HOUR (H1) As previously mentioned in H4, successive small candles & small bodies are also adding growing uncertainty for the upcoming hours. Watch the Tenkan-Sen (already under attack !) ahead of the Mid Bollinger Band and the Kijun-Sen (4'520) A failure, on a hourly closing basis to hold above the Kijun-Sen would reopen the door for the H1 clouds support area (4'470-4'385), respectively roughly the 38.2% and the 61.8% Fib retracements of the last short term 4'265-4568.25 rally) I hope my analysis will give you an additional value to your trading activity and if it is the case, please do not forget to like it and for those who do not follow me yet, please also add me on your following list. Many thanks in advance and take care Al the best Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Ironman8848
SP500 MF-H4-IN ROUTE FOR LOWER LEVELS !4 HOURS (H4) Two successive failure attempts to breakout the clouds resistance triggered a reversal move from its recent top @ 4'739.50 towards a low so far of 4'606.75, filling in its way both the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (4'572.75-4'739.50)@ 4'636.50 and the 78.6% Fib ret @ 4608.50 Global picture in this time frame does not look very encouraging as currently the SP 500 is below : 1) The clouds 2) The Mid Bollinger Band 3) The Tenkan-Sen 4) The Kijun-Sen and last but not least a Chikou-Span or Lagging line converging to the South as well... RSI is @ 37.66 Last candle which closed a few minutes ago triggered an hammer pattern, watch next ongoing candle to validate or invalidate this pattern on a H4 closing basis ! 1 HOUR (H1) Short term recovery only triggered by a long white candle which just closed below the Mid Bollinger band resistance level. Watch ongoing candle for getting more clues about short term picture. DAILY (D1) Under the influence of a major double top formation (trigger @ 4'500), coupled with a DOJI top and a bearish divergence !!! In an ongoing downtrend price action and below the MBB, TS and KS. Next support zone to watch at very carefully is the daily clouds support zone which is currently between 4'633 and 4'500 and which should be seen as a key pivot zone for further development. Indeed, a failure to : 1) stay and hold above the top of the clouds would be seen as the first warning signal, calling for further downside 2) A breakout of the bottom line of the former uptrend channel currently @ 4'566 (roughly the middle of the clouds too !) would also add more value for a downtrend continuation. A breakout of 4'500 on a daily closing basis would : 1) confirm the double top formation in progress ---> target 4'200 2) also confirm the breakout of the daily clouds bottom area WEEKLY : The ongoing weekly closing level, later on today, would add more indication for the next week... As a gentle reminder, the Mid Bollinger Band is currently @ 4'572 and a weekly closing below this level would be very negative for the upcoming week (s). Second important support to look at is the weekly Kijun-Sen, @ 4'516 should be seen as the LAST VERY IMPORTANT LEVEL IN THIS WEEKLY TIME FRAME !!! A failure to hold above 4'516 on a weekly closing basis would put the focus on 4'186.50, weekly clouds top and also 23.6% Fib retracement of the big rally from 2'174 towards the ATH @ 4'808.25 Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Ironman8848