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S&P 500 LONGAs what should be no surprise, the S&P 500 has found itself on the verge of breaking bullish out of another bearish ascending channel. Typically, when price action breaks bullish out of a bearish pattern the moves are very powerful. This brings us to exhibit A on the weekly chart. A decisive breakout occurred last week and now this week currently looks to be attempting to confirm a full body candle close with a confirmed backtest of the upper channel support just for good measure. And if it holds, SPY could run up in price double digits of percentages to the nearest fib extension at 483.79 approximately. The second half of the year might be a big one for equities overall, and the technicals (at least short to medium term) seem to be reflecting that.
AMEX:SPYLong
by TradeVibez
1
SPY final channal idea with throw-over top Final channel wave 5 with 445 resistance – equals 1.618 extension of wave 1 - 2.618 of wave 3 zig zag – but also the first wave extension 2.618 in wave 5. A lot of resistance in area around 420 where it has been trading for 2 months. Combined with falling trading volume this consolidation period can become a lot more volatile with the smaller volume, and this can be the tricker for breaking up or down forcefully. I think upwards to the area just under the trendline of top 1 and 3. Here it will trade sidewards until the final push and throw-over top. A small correction today and then pump up to 435 area for consolidation
AMEX:SPY
by Wassboy
SP500Playing around with this count on the LT weekly chart from b4 2000 dot com bubble. SP500 looks like a very clean 5 up & 5 wave down pattern 1 after another. I am sure that if we dial down into the LTF we could find many complex Flat & zig zag corrections but zoomed out everything looks pretty clean. The W3 that we are currently in lines up with 4600 rough target. I know a W4 is coming but the fib 1.618 lvl is really a better target for W3. So maybe SP500 continues up for now until 4600 and after that W4 will ensue. Hard to tell but I don't see W4 forming as of yet even with all the bearish inflation narratives.
SP:SPXLong
by Big_Mike716
SP500 for a new ATH? 🦐SP500 on the 4h chart retraced exactly at the 0.5 Fibonacci level over an ascending trendline. The price started then an impulse to the upside and is now trading below a previous resistance area. According to Plancton's strategy if the price will break above we will set a nice long order. –––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. • 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. • 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. • 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. • 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. • ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by InkyGrip
2
2009-2012 Provided a Roadmap 6/20/2021ES at the daily view. Back in summer 2020, I mentioned that inflation would be coming. It's here now. That said, this is short-term inflation. The M2SL (money supply) might be vertically up. However, the M2V (velocity of money) is also almost vertically down. You need both of them up to cause runaway inflation. In an analogy, that's like having a lot of gasoline (money supply), but your fuel injector is broken. So, not much fuel is actually going to the car engine itself. Another analogy is like having the fastest internet service, but your router or modem is breaking down. In addition, think about how the inflation from the CPI reports were measured. They were comparing May 2021 to May 2020. What were we doing during May 2020? Lockdown. We were not spending much at all. That's like comparing an athlete running today to where he was in ICU. Most of the inflation has been in slower moving items too like cars and houses. Think about it from a supply and demand perspective too. If smelters, metal workers, and lumber workers were laid off during 2020, how fast can you hire and train a workforce to provide materials? These are things that the crowd does not critically think about. For example, semiconductors were viewed to be inflated or raised due to Trump tariffs. How many people know that Taiwan has been facing one of its worst droughts in its history? Taiwan and Hong Kong are where we get our semiconductors from. It takes 2200 gallons of water to create 1x 30cm wafer. Now that the inflation talks were here, I sold off all of my banks and oil stocks 2 weeks before June OPEX. Quarterly OPEXs are usually the focal points of volatility. That and I was never comfortable being in the same trade as the herd. Everyone was talking about crypto in May. That was my cue to cash out my Ethereum, Bitcoin, and Cardano. Now, everyone is talking about inflation and not understand its concepts. That was my cue to get out of inflation protective trades. Why am I like this? Permabears like to say that we are in 2007. In actuality, we are in 2009-2010 all over again. Why do I say that? Let me walk you my first years of trading/investing with the articles below. 2009 by the New York Times. economix.blogs.nytimes.com 2010 by NYT. economix.blogs.nytimes.com 2010 by Forbes. www.forbes.com 2011 by CNBC. www.cnbc.com 2011 by Reuters. www.reuters.com 2012 to 2017 by NYT. www.nytimes.com Have you noticed the similarities to today? I remember every single mistake I made by following the crowd and the clickbait of media back then. I mentioned back in winter 2021 that 2021 will be the year of disappointment. Permabulls don't get their miracle returns like in 2020. Permabears won't get their crash that they need to breakeven. It's due to sector rotation. What we are seeing now is seasonal volatility. February-March, June, and September are seasonally the most volatile months. This downward movement will likely be short-lived. It's why I cashed out 2 weeks ago. Now that everyone is talking about inflation and chasing "inflation protection," what is the next move? If history rhymes like it did in 2009-2012, I'll be looking to get back into big tech by the end of June.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Itsallsotiresome
13
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NASDAQ:QQQLong
by ETF-OPTIONS
What Does Biden’s Tax Hike Proposal Mean for SP500Traders are digesting news that Biden plans to double capital gains taxes on the wealthy. As result, SP500 lost $30 in one trading session. However, it recovered the next day. The proposal has not been officially announced but details reported by Bloomberg include raising the top marginal tax rate to 39.6% from 37% while lifting the capital gains rate from 20% currently to 39.6% for people earning $1 million or more. Fundamental analysis Democrats planned a tax hike for a long time. So, it wasn’t that big surprise. A big question is when the rate hikes might go into effect, which would likely impact decisions on when or if to book profits from the market. And that’s what we all want to pay attention to. Meaning, if a big tax hike is coming next year, could we see a selloff this year with investors looking to ensure the lower tax rate? And what if the timing is different? Stock bears have been warning for a while that investors were not pricing in higher taxes ahead. The market reaction last week was relatively mild, with markets down overall but the major indexes all lost less than a full percentage point. Congress has to approve the tax high. And I believe it will be not that easy. It will likely find no support from Republicans and possibly many Democrat defectors. So the early consensus in Washington seems to be that these tax increases stand little chance of passing at the levels being suggested. It will be interesting to see if Wall Street agrees as more details are revealed. President Biden is expected to unveil the proposal next Wednesday, April 28. Keep in mind, the White House has already announced a plan to raise corporate taxes to 28%. Economic reports Economic data last week was a sort of a mixed bag. Initial jobless claims posted another decline to hit the lowest levels of the pandemic. However, there are some signs of headwinds for the housing market with Existing Home Sales falling for the second straight month but inventory levels are at record lows, so it’s tough to draw a negative conclusion. Housing supply did climb nearly +4% last month but it was still more than -28% lower than 2020 levels. The Wall Street Journal pointed out that, nationally, there were more real estate agents than there were homes listed for sale in March. At the same time, the median home sale price rose to a new record high of $329,100, marking a +17.2% gain over last year as supply constraints have led to the fastest selling pace on record. What to look for next week? Things kick into high gear next week though with announcements from some of America’s largest companies, including Tesla on Monday, followed by tech giants Alphabet and Microsoft on Tuesday, Apple and Facebook on Wednesday, and Amazon on Thursday. Other big names reporting next week include AbbVie, Agco, Altria, Amgen, AstraZeneca, BASF, Boeing, Boston Scientific, BP, Bristol Myers Squibb, Caterpillar, Charter Communications, Chevron, Chubb, Clorox, CME, Colgate Palmolive, Comcast, Dominos, Ebay, Eli Lilly, Exxon, Ford, General Electric, Gilead Sciences, GlaxoSmithKline, Intercontinental, Keurig Dr. Pepper, Kraft Heinz, Mastercard, McDonalds, Merck, MGM Resorts, Mondelez Int., Moody’s, Nio, Norfolk Southern, Northrop Grumman, Novartis, O’Reilly Automotive, Phillips 66, Qualcomm, Royal Dutch Shell, Shopify, Spotify, Starbucks, Texas Instruments, Thermo Fisher, Twitter, UPS, Visa, Yum Brands, …among many others. Data to watch Nearly every sector will get some coverage which will help analysts and investors get a better sense of what to expect from the rest of this earnings season. It will also help shape expectations for the quarters ahead as more companies provide full-year guidance. Next week also brings the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting on April 27-28, which comes amid a busy economic data schedule that includes Consumer Confidence Tuesday; the first read on first quarter GDP and Pending Home Sales on Thursday; and Consumer Sentiment, Chicago PMI, PCE inflation reads, and Personal Income and Spending on Friday. SP500 technical analysis SP500 futures found support near 4100 last week. In the absence of big news, we can expect it to hold. However, Biden’s tax proposal can shake the market. So, I wouldn’t rely on that support much. Advanced Decline Line shows signs of weakness. However, there is no clear divergence. If the price sustains above last week’s high, 4250 is the next magnet. But as I mentioned above we may see big volatility next week. So, I don’t trust those levels much. The range 3950 – 4000 is technically more important and more reliable. However, with cycles turning to the downside and ADL showing signs of weakness, tax proposals may be catalysts for sell-off. Yet, in the absence of clear signal, I think traders have to stick to Gann levels on an intraday basis.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Inna-Rosputnia
SP500 to 4200 by 4/20When twitter starts posting VIX charts, you know its time to buckle up for them to scream "GolDen AgE oF AsSeT BubBlEs" when the market, against all the social media narratives, rips shorts to shreds. "ArCHEgOs iS goNnA buRsT tHiS BuBBle" -> /es runs to 4k+ instantly No, this is not the 2001 Tech Bubble. 4104 is top line resistance. If hit, we'll have a small pullback (4050-4060 floor). I estimate the pullback to last approx till 4/14-4/15. Option expiration and after -> Insane melt-up coming. Never short a dull market. This is not financial advice.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by parxed
SP500 Lifetime OpportunityHi there, SP500 at the moment is a clear buy with target above 4000 If we pay attention to the DXY chart, we are starting a uptrend but still on sideways moment, which SP500 due to many retails shorting it, has been making new highs every week, as long as dollar is weak it will keep doing it, but dollar is soon ending this sideways market to start an uptrend. SP500 then will top at that moment If we look at the elliot wave theory, we are in the final phase, Blow off, close to a top to begin then a new trend. This is a long term view, if your looking to sell it, sell only at the mentioned wave 5, near it. Good luck
U
by fernandoc17
9
SP500 will break above again? 🦐SP500 is moving inside a descending channel in a retracement move. Even if the market looks extremely overbought on the big picture the bulls seem to hold the present level. According to PLancton's strategy if the price will break above we can set a nice long order. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. • 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. • 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. • 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. • 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. • ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by InkyGrip
3