💵 Thursday? More like GREENDAY! 💚My fellow kings 👑 , we yet again taste the sweet diabetic delight of profit.
This makes three days in a row, we still going strong boys.
Though for tomorrow I am putting the BBQ away.
I think we'll be up on an upward correction.
Over the last 90+ years the SPX has grown at an average of about 9% a year.
We started this year at an SPX of 3793, therefore we will end it at an SPX of 4135.
4135 - 3793 = 342 342/12 = 28,5 28,5*3 = 85,5 85,5 + 3793 = 3878.
So the price we should be at is 3878 ish. We are not because of market forces.
Those same market forces will soon make the index explode upwards.
I am not certain the downswing will end Thursday, though I am convinced Thursday will be green.
Friday is tricky to me and could go both ways, depending on tomorrows economic numbers.
Though i am convinced we'll end green tomorrow I can't rule out striking below 3800 before ^^^
Biden's Covid effort is going stronger than anticipated and the market has been sleeping on it.
The rates will balance out and NASDAQ will stabilized its outrageous valuations before long.
I can't state enough that with the current info I believe we're about to board a mega rocket later this month.
Anyway, whether you're short or long tomorrow, may your positions be as blessed as this beautiful day.
"President Biden said on Tuesday that a key milestone in the fight against COVID-19 could be reached two months faster than earlier projected.
By the end of May, there should be enough vaccine doses for every adult in America, he said — a dramatic improvement to his initial timetable for late July. "
www.bbc.com
Sp500future
Short MarketThe market has reached its all time high creating a new higher high which can be treated as a resistance @3941.1 for now. The RSI suggests that the market has been heavily overbought on 30m chart and a recorrection is to be expected.
On 4hr chart the support level 3896.8 is constantly being tested and looks like the market will test this level one more time before making yet another bullish move. If bears break the supp levels expect the market to test zone @3877.7 to 3868.5 supp level.
Else the long move is to be assumed go up to 4017.0.
Supp levels:
3918.0
3894.5 --> getting weak
3877.7 to 3868.5 --> strong supp zone
ALL TIME HIGHS FRIDAY...IT WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK!!!With 30 minutes before Monday's open QQQ above Friday's High:
If Monday opens above Friday's High:
Our Model predicts:
30 minute low holds = Monday closes above Monday's Open = Monday's 30 minute low should be the low for the entire week !!!
30 minute low breaks > -20 cents = Monday's closes below Monday's Open
If Monday's 30 minute low eliminates the gap from Friday's close = Monday High week !!! ( Isn't it amazing how that one gap fill changes the whole week's outcome ? )
So our model is expecting another strong week with at least one good down day mixed in.
Unless Monday opens and goes straight down to 331.36 (Friday's Close) we will be buying QQQ Calls and SQQQ Puts in Monday morning is the 30 min low either holds or breaks < -20 cents
Little Thought on SP500 H4 Chart Just sharing my view. First of all, it moves directly inside the uptrend channel. While we thought this is already pick, but suddenly i try to take a look the pattern inside the channel.
Take a look at the starting point. The rally comes after the correction at the 'starting point'. Small correction when touch the 'Support 2', and then breakout the resistance (means the Support 2 area in the picture). The rally stopped first at the area named "support 1' (it was named Resistance 1 before the breakout). Market having some consolidation inside small Rectangle/Flag. After having 'too dip' correction (named A), it suddenly reversed and rally beyond the Resistance 1 & 2 (it becomes Support 1 & support 2 now).
There you go .. try to look briefly! It happen again!. The correction moves inside small flag/rectangle. And guess what?? It was having false breakout too! Named as B, and it marked as 'False Breakout 2'. So, if this is a repetition, it should be the Good Chances for Buying on Dip! I suppose, the dip normally will hold at 'Support 1 area' .. probably around 3825 - 3833. And if this going to happen, we will have the 'Resistance 1' broken! And that means, New high will become real possible around 3900 - 3920 or beyond.
And all depends on what Fed says tonight, but also will have significant impact at the end of US markets when we heard about The Earnings.
Of course my view could be false also! So, you better use your own Risk Management to do this.
Thanks
WHAT DOES THE MOP TRADE PREDICT FOR THIS WEEK ???In this mornings extended session the QQQ's are trading above 314.00 level and we expect Friday's high 315.12 will be tested.
OUR MODEL IS NOT PREDICTING A MONDAY HIGH FOR THIS WEEK SO WE WILL BUY CALLS ON ANY INITIAL WEAKNESS MONDAY
Our model is giving us a signal of either a Tuesday or Friday high this week. With the political events this week in Washington DC it sure looks like Wednesday is going to be the pivot point for the market.
Our game plan for Monday:
We plan on buying Jan 22nd 315 calls on any weakness Monday, and our plan is to hold them into Tuesday, and will start to buy Jan 22nd puts Tuesday. We will be watching Tuesday's 1st 30 minute high as our guide...if that high holds any test we will start buying puts if that high holds, or we will wait till Tuesday's close to position ourselves for Wednesday.
If Wednesday's high breaks Tuesday's high we will remain not remain in puts, but will rather look to go long again expecting a Friday high for the week.
If Tuesday is the high for this week our model expects that Friday's low 310.58 will be broken before this week is over!!!
Good Luck!
How much room does the tech market have to the upside? SPXIs it possible that the tech market is now in a second bubble? Although the valuation of the top 5-6 companies is accurate, what would the rest of the 455 stocks of the SPX are signalling on what is going to happen next?
In my view, I believe that a few signs on the chart of the SPX does seem to indicate that a correction is due. There is a current bearish divergence looking both the the monthly and weekly volumes in relation to the price. The MACD is highly elevated too and it seems we are not seeing a record level that we have not ever seen before. Of course, the correction back in March is a contributing factor on seeing such elevated levels but they cannot simply go on like that for too long now. Despite a vaccine being available and as of tomorrow starting to be used in the UK targeting around 2 million people, the economic prospects and worries seem to be more elevated both in Europe and the US. The US market has been flooded by vast amounts of money printed by the FED which were mostly use to purchase bonds and stocks, increasing it's balance sheet. The argument of a high inflation is real and of course is something to take serious but personally I believe that deflation will be the first real threat. Every major crisis in the past had started with a deflationary period and the pandemic has set the stage perfectly for that.
It is very possible to see some high volatility in the month of December but I believe that end of February mid March would be the the more sensitive times one should watch the market. The levels to watch would be the 21EMA on the Weekly chart as , breaking that level, would be a first sign of a potential reversal.
I will update this idea with more charts as we go along but for now I just wish to publish the current state and see if we will get any signals before the end of 2021.
S&P500 : The completion of the Diagonal patternIn240 minutes chart of the uptrend from the range of 3511 to 3833 is in the form of 3 waves which confirms the scenario of the formation of the Diagonal pattern.
Currently, to get the the confirmation of the downtrend,the price should not cross the range of 3841,because the 3rd wave should not be shorter than the other waves.
By crossing the price from this range,this scenario will be violated.
Thee confirmation for this pattern will be received by the formation of 5 descending waves,and by crossing the price from the range of 3660.
According to monitored position, personally,I set the short order.
By considering the RSI you can also see the convergence
QQQ MAKING NEW WEEKLY LOW TODAY...SO WHATS NEXT?First I want to apologize to trading view community for soliciting my services! I violated the rules, and I will do my best to not repeat that mistake again! (I am not supposed to use ALL CAPS-references yelling/shouting so I will correct that too! Below is a copy and paste from Monday Jan 4th-all caps sorry!)
January 4th Post:
WE HAVE TRADED THE QQQ'S OVER 19 YEARS AND THE QQQ'S HAVE OPENED ON MONDAYS AT AN ALL TIME NEW HIGH 39 TIMES.
IF MONDAYS LOW CANNOT FILL THE FRIDAY CLOSE GAP (HAPPENED 21/39 TIMES) THEN (48% PROBABILITY) MONDAY IS THE LOW FOR THIS WEEK. - (Oh we filled that gap and then some)
IF MONDAY LOW FILLS THE FRIDAY CLOSE GAP (18/39 TIMES ) THEN:
6/18 TIMES MONDAY HIGH WEEK (33%) - (Looks like that is the case this week )
5/18 TIMES MONDAY LOW WEEK (28%)
10/18 TIMES TUESDAY LOW > MONDAY LOW (56%) = 5/10 TIMES MONDAY LOW WEEK (50%) - (That will not be the case this week)
8/18 TIMES TUESDAY LOW < MONDAY LOW (44%) = 5/8 TIMES MONDAY HIGH WEEK (63%)
SO WHAT DOES THIS REALLY TELL US GOING INTO MONDAYS OPEN?
IT TELLS US TO BE PATIENT AND SEE HOW LOW THE QQQ'S CAN GO AFTER THE OPEN AND IF IT DOES NOT FILL THE FRIDAY GAP = BUY CALLS
IF THE 1ST 30 MINUTE LOW BREAKS AND QQQ CANNOT GET BACK ABOVE THE VWAP = NOT BULLISH AND BUYING PUTS MAKES THE MOST SENSE - So that is what we did, and i think you know it was a great trade!
We will admit to you we did not buy calls Monday at the low - sure wish we had...because the dead cat bounce was big..most of you following us know we buy calls about 8 to 1 puts...and we just did not pull the trigger!
So as i write this this morning the DOW is up 100+ points and the QQQ's are down over -$5.00, and our model does not recognize Wednesday as the low for the week!
We would expect a reflexive bounce after the open(maybe some Fibonnacci levels tagged), so we will sell 1/2 to all our puts (SQQQ calls actually) we bought at the end of the day yesterday. We just did not see anything bullish happening today, and buying puts at the close made sense as a low risk/high reward trade with the rationalization that todays low would not be above yesterdays high... I think we were right with that one!
So we will start the day off as day traders selling our short positions, probably buying some calls, and then scaling back into puts and selling the calls expecting a low this week either Thursday or Friday!
Good Luck!!!
ES (SP500) Short Setup (4th dec 20)Hi traders,
I'm bearish today (and monday) and you can find my targets and price action prediction on the chart.
Disclaimer: This is not a financial, trading or investment advice
PS: Remember to follow me, like and drop some comments
Stay healthy, trade safe.
Atilla Yurtseven
S&P 500-Ending Diagonal patternIn some cases we can't offer long-term analysis,we have to take short term targets in to our consideration.In presented chart everything is clear , according to the Diagonal pattern the probability of down trend formation up to the determined line is existing
ES - Ridiculous is the New Norm 11/25/2020ES at the daily view.
Welcome to 2020 where "ridiculous" is now an average Tuesday. The only thing that hasn't changed are permabears complaining every single day. What has changed are the permabulls are now more annoying.
The rotation from growth to cyclical definitely blew away shorts. In fact, financials, energy, and industrial were among the most shorted sectors since April. Now with this rotation, those shorts were just relentlessly hunted. It's also why RTY has been rising like no tomorrow. Would there be a pullback? That depends on how many shorts are left. If we do pullback, what are the chances that there are a lot of trapped shorts below - waiting to get out? Pretty high. When the ES pulls back, there will likely be some big bounces on the way down.
That's the irony behind permabears. They wish for a crash as big as March 2020. However, it's their trapped shorts and short covering that kept the rally going all this time. Basically, permabears' worst enemies are other bears (not the Fed).
When will the ES pullback? No idea. It's always harder to time a top than a bottom. There are no reliable resistances at these levels. VIX is still forming a bottoming pattern. This week is also a Holiday Week which are notoriously low volume. Meaning, sellers are unlikely going to appear this week. There might be a mini-pullback tomorrow, but I'm not expecting anything grand. VIX did hit a support level. Judging by the low volume price action, the momentum seems to be sideways to up.
I'm steering clear of ES until it pulls back. I am not confident at all where the resistances are. However, I am much more confident of where the good supports are.