S&P500: More Upward Potential!We still ascribe more upward potential to the S&P’s turquoise wave B – up to the resistance at 6088 points. At this level, we expect a transition into the same-colored wave C, which should push the index down into our green Target Zone between 5110 and 4921 points. Within this Zone, the larger wave should find its final low, which should provide potential entry points for long positions. A stop-loss can be set 1% below this Zone for risk management. However, if the index surpasses the 6088 points mark directly, our alternative scenario (probability: 38%) will come into play: it suggests that the wave low is already in place.
Sp500idea
SP500 what is next?From my last analysis, the S&P 500 has fully reached my projected target. Right now, I'd like to see some sort of reaction here or slightly lower, around the 4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) in the 5325-5240 range. If we get that, I expect a push higher, potentially leading into the U.S. elections or even until the end of this year. However, if we don’t see that reaction and price keeps dropping, it could spell major trouble ahead—we’re talking a significant downturn, and nothing may be able to stop it.
SP500 seasonality and market positioning are at oddsOn one hand, seasonality for the S&P 500 and indices in general tends to be unfavourable in September. On the other, asset managers are 'all in' being long the index which sits just beneath its record high. We weigh up the competing factors to decide whether we should tread carefully around seasonality, or simply ignore it.
MS
Is SP500 strike to cover crisisDear All,
This is SP500 to GDP Ratio chart which is show us maybe we should ready for another crisis. If you compare this chart to Will500PR to GDP Ratio I have published before you can clearly see negative bearish divergence between these two that means total public traded shares do not touched higher top but SP500 index reaches higher rates; So its obvious to see a sharp shrinkage as soon as possible. See if FED can cover it by soft landing or not?
SPX500 - SHORT STRUCTURE IDEA (TARGET 4725)What's on the chart?
1) An old high that marked a strong year for 2023.
2) A rebound in a weekly FVG that earlier served as a bullish signal for prior trading sessions.
3) In the process of that rebound, a 4H bullish FVG was formed which will serve as our target area + fibs.
4) The 2023 high was broken.
5) IMPORTANT: the new high wasn't taken out. Hmmm.. suspicious. That to me is a sign of weakness from the bulls.
6) On this flop of bullish momentum, a bearish 4H FVG was formed.
7) Market structure shift with a low taken out. Do we expect a rebound? Well I don't know. I'm not here to claim that I predict the future like most twitter gurus will imply. But if it does, this is how I see the rest go down.
8) A rebound in the 4H FVG, this is crucial for a short setup because it would imply a lower high. Super important!! Price doesn't need to go that high though to find a short setup. We could just break our imaginary trendline and that's it.
9) The descent into the abyss of short profits (or liquidations lol).
S&P500 Next Support LevelClosely monitor the zone indicated in above chart.
Disclaimer: The information and analysis provided in this publication are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any securities. The author and TradingView are not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the content presented herein. Always consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
If the S&P500 is to bounce, surely it should be today?We all know that global indices have been under pressure whilst the US dollar and bond yields scream higher. But with the S&P 500 respecting key levels of support and forming a bullish hammer on Wednesday, perhaps it is time for at least a sympathy bounce?
Furthermore, the hammer low perfectly respected trend support and closed above the 200-day EMA, with a bullish RSI (2) that curled higher from oversold and the RSI (14) is itself nearing oversold.
We're not looking for a strong risk-on rally, but a small bounce (perhaps towards the August lows of 4400 gap resistance level) may not be such a crazy idea. At which point we could seek evidence of a swing high and a potential break of trend support.
Naturally, an immediate break of yesterday's low would also invalidate trend support and likely signal its next let lower.
$SPX500USD US500 Continue to Build Upward PressureOANDA:SPX500USD
We will have choppy times ahead.
Target 4600
Above 4600 Vey Low Volume
The sentiment is positive
4060 is support
Technically
Higher Highs Lower Lows
We are slowly leaving the current ange
The ranges are increasing
The S&P 500 has rallied rather significantly during the course of the week to break above the 4200 level, showing signs of extreme strength. At this point, the market looks as if it is going to threaten the 4300 level above, an area that has previously been resistance. We have seen a lot of noise over the last several months, but the resiliency of the market is something that you have to pay attention to. As long as the market stays this resilient, it will be difficult to short anytime soon. The candlestick seems as if it is trying to tell us that the market has made up its mind finally, and that it decided that it’s going higher.
If we can break above the 4300 level, then this becomes more of a “buy-and-hold” situation, but you can see that the gains have been hard won. With that, I think you get a situation where you are probably better off looking for short-term dips that you can take advantage of, as they offer value in what is becoming a very aggressive uptrend.
That being said, if we were to turn around a break down below the 50-Week EMA could send the market lower, perhaps back down to the 4000 level, and even down to the 200-Week EMA which is currently near the 3770 level. However, it’s probably worth noting that momentum is definitely not on your side if you are going to take this position, and therefore you are probably better off looking for a move to the upside but expecting a lot of volatility. Keep in mind that the S&P 500 is not equally weighted, so it’s just a handful of stocks that make the difference.
S&P500This Is My Anticipation On The S&P500 For Today, We Have SMT Divergence With The Nasdaq On Both The H4 And The Weekly Time Frame So I Believe We May See A Retracement Down And Eventually We Will Trade Up To Take The Buyside Liquidity But For Now This Is What I Believe Might Be The Markets Next Move
SPX clear breakout targets 4400-4500Hello, everyone.
My previous idea a week ago had a bearish outlook on SPX.
However things have changed, as we now have a clearly defined outbreak in the RSI.
The target range now is 4400-4500.
Depending on how the market opens on Tuesday. I may open long position.
Good luck everyone.
Stay safe, stay liquid.
SPX Swing Trade, History repeating (CPI incoming)The chart is self-explanatory, I have highlighted in the chart where we saw remarkably similar price action in the past.
I have identified two different structures in the chart, a parallel channel, and a disjoint channel. We are currently trading in the disjoint channel. A disjoint channel has expanding edges which have same slopes locked in opposite directions.
We entered the Current Disjoint channel from a parallel channel trending upwards which is exactly what happened in the past, the only difference is size of these channels, in past we had larger Parallel and disjoint channel compared to what we have now.
The small size of channels this time indicates reduced volatility overall, which if it happens at the end of an uptrend, means we are topping out.
Let's make some predictions based on this.
If we look at the current price action, it is forming a bull flag (highlighted in the chart) , I have also highlighted the measured move of the flag. If the flag plays out its measured move intersects directly into the top of the disjoint channel as well as the August high. Which I believe should be the top or close to it.
In case bull flag fails , and we first drop a bit then we can look at that the blue line, it is placed for 10th May CPI Day and if we move up on that day, we are still intersecting close to the August High and top of the disjoint channel.
Apart from the above structures we also have a harmonic structure with its PRZ falling right onto Aug high.
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US500 Trading Plan - 4/Mar/2023Hello Traders,
Hope you all are doing good!!
I expect US500 to go Down after finishing the correction.
Look for your SELL setups.
Please follow me and like if you agree or this idea helps you out in your trading plan.
Disclaimer: This is just an idea. Please do your own analysis before opening a position. Always use SL & proper risk management.
Market can evolve anytime, hence, always do your analysis and learn trade management before following any idea.
MARKET STRUCTURE IN US_500 (SP_500)The S&P 500 index is currently in a bullish trend, forming higher highs and higher lows. However, it recently created a series of equal highs, followed by a lower low. If the index breaks below the recent low, it could be an indication that the trend is turning bearish. On the other hand, if it breaks above the equal highs, the bullish trend is likely to continue. Traders should keep a close eye on these key levels and use them as potential points in their trades. Happy trading!
S&P 500: Two Pattern to Trade in short termHi everyone!
The trend is bullish on S&P 500 (Futures), and if we try to follow US Index on intraday chart, we have two important levels: 4,189.75 and 4,098.50. Potential resistance breakout should develop a harmonic structure with Target around 4,238.50, conversely, 4,098.50 failure should trigger bearish consolidation around 4,048.00 area. Technically, both setups are high risk, so using a small size should be a good choice.
...trade with care! 👍
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S&P500: Don't push it 🚫The S&P500 is currently wandering sideways and doesn't really know, where it's heading. We're currently expecting the course to sink further South, but there is a slight temptation to cross the resistance line at 4026 points. In our alternative scenario with a probability of 30%, the course could dig a bit deeper to finish the pink wave alt. II, before exceeding the resistance mark at 4026 points for good. Primarily, the S&P500 should fall below the support line at 3788 points to complete the blue wave . Once achieved, we're predicting steady upwards pulses in the longterm.
S&P500: More Pep!S&P500 needs some more pep to make it above the resistance at 3820 points, so let’s cheer it on! S&P, you are strong enough to climb above 3820 points and to hop into the upper blue zone between 3943 and 4015 points overlapping with the pink zone between 3963 and 4052 points. After you have finished wave (III) in blue there as well as concluded a countermovement in the course of wave (IV) in blue, you will continue to rise further. Although there is a 33% chance that you could lose your grip and drop below the support at 3502 points, that would only activate a detour through the lower blue zone between 3455 and 3285 points overlapping with the pink zone between 3362 and 3271 points. In that case, you would just complete wave alt.4 in turquoise and start the ascent afterwards.