Hurry Up and Wait - The Markets Favourite GameHurry Up and Wait – The Market’s Favourite Game | SPX Market Analysis 21 Feb 2025
These kangaroo markets just won’t quit. Every time we break out of one range, the Bollinger Bands pinch again, locking us into another one.
Meanwhile, other indexes fell out of bed, but SPX? It’s clinging on by "the Bulls".
When will it finally open up and run? Who knows—but until then, I’ll keep finding new ways to say ‘hurry up and wait’.
---
Markets Keep Bouncing, But Not Breaking
It’s like watching a kangaroo on a trampoline—lots of movement, no real progress.
SPX tries to push out of one range 🏋️♂️
Bollinger Bands pinch again, trapping price in a new range 🔄
Other indexes have fallen, but SPX refuses to follow
This makes trading tricky, as every potential breakout is quickly absorbed into another consolidation.
The Bollinger Band Pinch – What It Means
When Bollinger Bands tighten, they signal:
📌 A period of low volatility
📌 A potential breakout coming – but direction unknown
📌 Traders getting frustrated waiting for a real move
Normally, I’d switch to Tag ‘n Turn setups during breakouts, but with volatility still tight, I’ll stick to my 6 money-making patterns instead.
For now, it’s all about waiting for a clean break—no fake moves, no forced trades.
Final Thoughts – When Will the Market Open Up?
📌 The big move is coming—we just don’t know when.
📌 SPX is clinging on, but other indexes are weakening—watch for cracks.
📌 Bollinger Bands are tightening—when they expand, volatility will return.
Until then? It’s back to ‘hurry up and wait’.
---
Fun Fact
📢 Did you know? In 2015, the New York Stock Exchange halted trading for nearly four hours—and the official reason? A “technical glitch”.
💡 The Lesson? Even the biggest, most advanced markets can freeze up, just like we’re seeing with these tight, choppy conditions.
Sp500index
Riding Wave 5: Is $700 Just Around the Corner?Hey Realistic Traders, Will META Bullish Bias Continue ? Let’s Dive In....
In the Daily timeframe, META rebounded above the 38.2% Fibonacci level, marking the completion of wave 4. Within this wave, a Descending broadening wedge pattern was formed. Recently the price has broken out of the pattern. This breakout was further confirmed by a bullish MACD crossover, signaling increasing momentum and strengthening the case for a continued upward move.
Based on these technical signals, I foresee a potential upward movement toward the first target at $638. After reaching this level, a minor pullback is likely before the rally continues toward a new high at $700.
This outlook remains valid as long as the price holds above the stop-loss level at 550.00.
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Disclaimer: "Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on META.
One More Close and SPY Will be Running!!!Typically I share the signals of my King Trading Momentum Strategy, which combines the 5 EMA crossing above the 13 EMA, RSI strength, favorable momentum as measured by ADX plus evaluating recent volume changes and even a little thing called Beta! But this time it is all about technical analysis. On SPY I originally thought we truncated wave 5 but now that we closed above the all-time high just one more close higher to confirm and this one is off to the races. Today it even retested breakout, held and bounced hard higher into close (super bullish). Impulsive waves are important to me with my momentum strategy, as instead of chasing missed opportunities I simply take the next signal on the hourly, as the strategy is optimized for over 100 beloved equities (if enabled in options)! There is always another trade when SPY goes impulsive! Currently signals have fired on TNA, SPXL, SOXL, TQQQ & UDOW (3x leveraged ETFs) just to name a few. If that doesn't make you feel bullish then I'm not sure what will!
SP500 vs. US intrest rateInterest rate hikes correlated with SP500 growth. Recent growth from the bottom of the March 21' COVID crash was financed by printing trillions US dollars. It allowed to mitigate unemployment rate spike. Inflation started to rise rapidly and interest rates are expected to grow. Will SP500 growth continue? Or is it overpriced by now? Maybe, Shiller P/E ratio for SP500 is now around 39 with median at 16 and maxiumum at 44 on Dec 1999. But how similar is current economics to previous decades? What to expect with unprecedented money supply and modern technologies? Is it time of Modern Monetary Theory?
Maybe I would be able to answer any of the questions if I had any formal economic education ;)
tradingeconomics.com
www.multpl.com
S&P 500’s Next Big Move: 6,200 or Bust?Hey Realistic Traders, Will CAPITALCOM:US500 Move beyond 6,200? Let’s dive into the analysis...
On the daily chart, the S&P 500 is trading above both the EMA-100 and EMA-200, confirming a robust bullish trend. This momentum was reinforced by a falling wedge breakout, a pattern that typically signals the continuation of bullish pressure. Additionally, the price tested the upper trendline twice and bounced off each time, further underlining the strength of the upward move.
Considering these strong technical signals, the price is likely to move downward toward the first target at 6.240 or potentially the second target at 6.391.
However, this bullish scenario depends on the price staying below the critical stop-loss level at 5844
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Disclaimer: “Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on S&P500”.
Bullish continuation?S&P500 (US500) is falling towards pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 6,034.09
1st Support: 5,984.27
1st Resistance: 6,125.76
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Global Stocks Decline Amid Alphabet Earnings; S&P 500 Faces Key Stocks Hit by Alphabet Earnings
Global stocks declined on Wednesday after disappointing earnings from Alphabet weighed on Wall Street futures.
S&P 500 Technical Analysis
The price is likely to test 5970 after failing to hold above the resistance zone at 6051.
The next bearish trend will be confirmed if a 4-hour or 1-hour candle closes below 5969.
On the other hand, for the price to regain bullish momentum, a 4-hour candle must close above 6020, which could lead to a move towards 6051. A breakout above this level may push the price further to 6077.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5996
Resistance Levels: 6020, 6051, 6077
Support Levels: 5969, 5937, 5896
Trend Outlook:
Bullish if price breaks above 6020
Bearish correction expected down to 5969
WALT DISNEY: New maximums with the permission of its results!The Walt Disney Company is a company engaged in various activities, such as theme parks, tourist services, films and television, publishing and consumer products, and interactive services. The brands of The Walt Disney Company include, among others, ABC Entertainment.
--> What is the technical aspect?
If we look at the chart, the technical aspect is clearly bullish ( Bull ).
After making a strong retracement of almost 50% Fibonacci, on January 21 the price gave us the first bullish warning ( Bull ), which was confirmed 2 days later. Since that day, we considered the retracement phase to be over and a new bullish phase ( Bull ) began on the way to new highs. But there was one last hurdle to overcome, the 116 zone.
--> Will it be able to overcome the zone?
Technically, it is very likely that it will overcome it without problems, but tomorrow it will present results, and we already know that if the results are not good, the price will fall sharply.
--> What can we do?
2 options:
1) AGGRESSIVE PROFILE: Ignore that it will present results tomorrow.
2) CONSERVATIVE PROFILE: Wait until Thursday to make decisions.
If our profile is aggressive, we will operate as follows:
--------------------------------------
Strategy to follow:
ENTRY: We will open 2 long positions if the price exceeds 116
POSITION 1 (TP1): We close the first position in the 121.90 area (+5%)
--> Stop Loss at 110.36 (-5%).
RATIO: (1:1)
POSITION 2 (TP2): We open a Trailing Stop type position.
--> Initial dynamic Stop Loss at (-5%) (coinciding with 110.36 of position 1).
--> We change the dynamic Stop Loss to (-1%) when the price reaches TP1 (121.90).
-------------------------------------------
SET UP EXPLANATIONS
*** How do we know which 2 long positions to open? Let's take an example: If we want to invest 2,000 euros in the stock, what we do is divide that amount by 2, and instead of opening 1 position of 2,000, we will open 2 positions of 1,000 each.
*** What is a Trailing Stop? A Trailing Stop allows a trade to continue gaining value when the market price moves in a favorable direction, but automatically closes the trade if the market price suddenly moves in an unfavorable direction by a certain distance. That certain distance is the dynamic Stop Loss.
-->Example: IF the dynamic Stop Loss is at -1%, it means that if the price drops by -1%, the position will be closed. If the price rises, the Stop Loss also rises to maintain that -1% on increases, therefore, the risk is increasingly lower until the position becomes profitable. In this way, very solid and stable price trends can be taken advantage of, maximizing profits.
SPY | The End of a 16-Year Bull Cycle? Major Correction Ahead?🔎 Overview:
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has been in a massive bull run since the 2009 bottom, forming a clear 5-wave structure based on Elliott Wave Theory. Now, the market is showing multiple top signals, suggesting that a major correction may be imminent.
📉 Key Warning Signs:
1️⃣ 5-Wave Completion:
The 5th wave is approaching a key Fibonacci extension level (0.618 of Waves 1-3), a common reversal zone for extended moves.
The previous wave count has been respected perfectly, reinforcing this structure.
2️⃣ Fibonacci Circles Alignment:
Price is reaching the outermost Fibonacci arc, a historically significant zone where reversals have occurred.
The market has reacted strongly in previous arcs, indicating this could be another turning point.
3️⃣ RSI Bearish Divergence:
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is making lower highs while price is making higher highs—a classic bearish divergence signal.
Previous similar divergences led to major corrections, including 2000, 2008, and 2021 dips.
4️⃣ Overextended Market Conditions:
Volume is declining despite new highs, signaling weak buying pressure.
Sentiment is euphoric, typically a late-stage bull market characteristic.
📊 Possible Scenarios:
🟢 Bullish Case: If SPY breaks and sustains above the 0.786 Fibonacci level (~672), we could see an extension.
🔴 Bearish Case: A break below 600 and a weekly close under 575 would confirm the start of a major correction back to the 350-400 zone (previous wave 4 region).
🚨 Final Thoughts:
The technical evidence suggests that SPY is in a late-stage bull cycle, and the risk of a major pullback is high. While timing exact tops is difficult, long-term investors should be cautious, and traders may want to start looking at hedging strategies or taking partial profits.
📢 What’s your take? Are we near a major top, or is there more upside left? Drop your thoughts in the comments! 👇
#SPY #SP500 #StockMarket #ElliottWave #Fibonacci #RSI #BearishDivergence #Trading #Investing 🚀📉
Weekly Market Forecast Feb 2-7thThis is an outlook for the week of Feb 2-7th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
ES \ S&P 500
NQ | NASDAQ 100
YM | Dow Jones 30
GC |Gold
SiI | Silver
PL | Platinum
HG | Copper
The indices were not easy to trade last week, as there were plenty of fundamentals at play. However, they are relatively still strong, and I am looking for further gains next week.
NFP week, imo, is best traded Mon-Wed. Thurs will likely see consolidation until the NFP news announcement Friday morning. I will look to fade the news release on Friday for NY Session.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
SPx / Fed Watch: Should AI Volatility Raise Concerns?Should the Fed Worry About an AI Wobble?
In this week's meeting, the Fed may not address the DeepSeek AI saga, but AI-driven volatility warrants close attention. Monday’s Nvidia-led selloff, triggered by China’s cheaper DeepSeek AI, rippled into U.S. interest rate markets, highlighting AI’s growing impact on financial stability.
S&P 500 Analysis – Market Outlook
The S&P 500 stabilized at a key bullish zone and continues to exhibit strong upward momentum, aligning with our previous expectations.
A potential retest of 6051 is likely before resuming the upward movement. A successful rebound from this level would strengthen the bullish case, targeting 6103 and 6122 before attempting to break 6143, which would mark a new all-time high (ATH).
The index must maintain price action above the 6051 pivot level for the bullish trend to remain intact. A 4-hour candle close below 6051 could shift momentum towards a bearish correction, with downside targets at 6020 and 5997.
Key Levels
Pivot Point: 6077
Resistance Levels: 6103, 6122, 6143
Support Levels: 6051, 6020, 5997
Trend Outlook
📈 Bullish as long as the price remains above 6051.
⚠️ A sustained break below 6051 could trigger bearish pressure toward 6020.
Previous idea:
Nvidia Stock Goes 'DeepSeek', Ahead of Earnings CallNvidia's stock has experienced significant volatility recently, largely influenced by the emergence of a new AI model from Chinese startup DeepSeek. This model, known as R1, reportedly rivals the capabilities of advanced models from major U.S. tech companies like OpenAI and Google, but does so using less powerful and cheaper chips. This development has raised concerns among investors about the sustainability of Nvidia's market dominance and the high valuations of U.S. tech stocks.
Impact of DeepSeek on Nvidia Stock
Stock Performance.
On January 27, 2025, Nvidia's shares plummeted by over 16%, marking its largest intraday drop since August 2023. This decline wiped more than half-a-trillion US dollars from Nvidia's market capitalization. The stock fell approximately 12.5% in early trading, reflecting widespread investor anxiety about the implications of DeepSeek's advancements.
Investor Sentiment.
The introduction of DeepSeek's AI model has prompted a reevaluation of the heavy investments made by U.S. tech firms in AI technologies. Analysts noted that if DeepSeek can achieve competitive results with lower costs, it may lead to reduced demand for Nvidia's high-end chips. This has caused a ripple effect across the tech sector, with other semiconductor stocks also experiencing declines.
Market Reactions.
The broader tech market was affected as well, with the Nasdaq index falling nearly 4% in pre-market trading. Other companies linked to AI and technology also saw significant drops; for instance, ASML and Broadcom fell by 7% and over 12%, respectively.
Perspectives by Fundamental and Technical Analyst
Skepticism About DeepSeek.
While some analysts expressed skepticism about DeepSeek's ability to compete effectively without advanced chips, they acknowledged that its success could force U.S. companies to reconsider their strategies regarding AI investments and efficiency. For example, Citi analysts maintained a "buy" rating on Nvidia, suggesting that major U.S. companies are unlikely to shift away from using Nvidia's GPUs in the near term.
Concerns Over Valuations.
Analysts at Wedbush highlighted that U.S. tech stocks are currently valued at premium levels, which makes them vulnerable to any disruptions in perceived technological superiority. They noted that even small developments like those from DeepSeek could significantly impact stock prices due to inflated expectations surrounding AI advancements.
Future Outlook.
Despite the immediate negative impact on Nvidia's stock, some analysts believe that concerns may be exaggerated and that U.S. firms are still well-positioned for long-term growth in AI technologies. They argue that while DeepSeek's model is impressive, it does not yet match the comprehensive infrastructure and ecosystem that American tech giants have developed.
Technical Outlook.
The main technical graph for Nvidia stock (1-week resolution) indicates on epic breakthrough of upside channel, which has been alive for more than last two years, until ̶D̶o̶n̶a̶l̶d̶ ̶T̶r̶u̶m̶p̶ someone entered ̶a̶ ̶c̶h̶a̶t̶ White House.
Ahead of Nvidia Earnings call (scheduled on February, 26) our 'fancy-nancy' Analyst Team is strongly against any Nvidia stock purchase below ready to be lost, $130 per share level.
Potentially 52-week SMA can support a stock for a while near $115 a share, otherwise we believe Nvidia stock will dive below $100 level again.
Conclusion
In summary, the rise of DeepSeek represents a pivotal moment for Nvidia and the broader tech sector, challenging existing assumptions about AI development costs and market dynamics. The ongoing situation will likely lead to further scrutiny of investment strategies within the industry as stakeholders assess the long-term implications of this emerging competition.
Global Liquidity Index Overlaid on S&P 500 Tracking the Global Liquidity Index with the S&P 500 helps understand liquidity's impact on market performance and predict future moves. The GLI offers a unified view of central bank balance sheets, converted to USD, excluding currency-pegged banks, with reliable data since 2007.
Rising liquidity often leads to market growth, while declining liquidity could signal pullbacks or increased volatility.
Liquidity Spikes: Sudden rises in the GLI may boost the S&P 500.
Liquidity Dips: Falling liquidity may signal market decline due to higher volatility and trading difficulties.
Divergence between the GLI & S&P 500:
If stocks rise while liquidity falls, a correction might be coming. If liquidity rises while stocks fall, the market might catch up to the liquidity increase.
The GLI indicates that risk appetite is starting to decline. High liquidity encourages risk-taking; low liquidity leads to safer investments, increasing volatility and potential market declines.
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COSTCO: Correction phase may be coming to an END!! Costco Wholesale is an international chain of hypermarkets with a Price Club format whose objective is to provide the best prices on quality products.
At Costco you can find a large selection of exclusive products, including hospitality products, confectionery, household appliances, television, car parts, tires, toys, electronic devices, sports items, jewelry, watches, cameras, audiovisual, books, household products, health, beauty, furniture, equipment and office products... all with the best quality.
It has large stores in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, Mexico, Taiwan, Korea, Japan, the United Kingdom, Australia, Spain, France, Iceland and China.
--> What is the technical aspect?
If we look at the chart, the technical aspect is impeccable bullish in a retracement phase, but the retracement phase may be coming to an END!!.
After making a strong retracement overcoming the 61.8% Fibonacci zone, on January 7 the price gave us the first bullish warning (Bull). The next one to warn us of bullish strength (Bull) was the oscillator on January 13, and finally, yesterday, the FORCE aligned with the TREND and the MOMENTUM (see table), leaving everything bullish (Bull) ready to attack highs.
--> What do we need to attack highs?
That it overcomes its last important resistance which is the 963 area.
-------------------------------------
Strategy to follow:
ENTRY: We will open 2 long positions if the H4 candle closes above 963
POSITION 1 (TP1): We close the first position in the 999 area (+4%)
--> Stop Loss at 899 (-6.2%).
POSITION 2 (TP2): We open a Trailing Stop type position.
--> Initial dynamic Stop Loss at (-6.2%) (coinciding with the 899 of position 1).
---We modify the dynamic Stop Loss to (-1%) when the price reaches TP1 (999).
-------------------------------------------
SET UP EXPLANATIONS
*** How do we know which 2 long positions to open? Let's take an example: If we want to invest 2,000 euros in the stock, what we do is divide that amount by 2, and instead of opening 1 position of 2,000, we will open 2 positions of 1,000 each.
*** What is a Trailing Stop? A Trailing Stop allows a trade to continue gaining value when the market price moves in a favorable direction, but automatically closes the trade if the market price suddenly moves in an unfavorable direction by a certain distance. That certain distance is the dynamic Stop Loss.
-->Example: If the dynamic Stop Loss is at -1%, it means that if the price drops by -1%, the position will be closed. If the price rises, the Stop Loss also rises to maintain that -1% in the rises, therefore, the risk is increasingly lower until the position becomes profitable. In this way, very solid and stable price trends can be taken advantage of, maximizing profits.
M.A.G.A's STORYTAIL (SP500)If I can reach the stars, pull one down for you
Shine it on my heart so you could see the truth
That this love I have inside is everything it seems
But for now I find, it's only in my dreams
And I can change the world
I will be the sunlight in your universe
You would think my love was really something good
Baby, if I could change the world
If I could be king, even for a day
I'd take you as my queen, I'd have it no other way
And our love would rule in this kingdom we have made
'Till then, I'd be a fool wishing for the day
And I can change the world
I would be the sunlight in your universe
You would think my love was really something good
Baby, if I could change the world
Baby, if I could change the world
I could change the world
I would be the sunlight in your universe
You would think my love was really something good
Baby, if I could change the world
Baby, if I could change the world
Baby, if I could change the world
Eric Clapton
MES: Ice and Fire Could Blow the U.S. Economy Off its CourseCME: Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Futures ( CME_MINI:MES1! ) #Microfutures
In “A Song of Ice and Fire”, American author George Martin painted a mystical land where dragons spit out flame to destroy a whole city and a winter that last one hundred years. Game of Thrones, the popular HBO TV series, was adapted from Martin’s book.
In 2025, we seem to be reliving these moments. California wildfires have claimed dozens of lives, burnt down thousands of homes, and caused an estimated $250 billion in damage.
Meanwhile, Winter Storm Blair raged coast-to-coast, bringing heavy snow across the Great Plain to Mid-Atlantic. The storms shut down interstate highways, caused thousands of airport delays and racked up 350,000 power outages. At the time of this writing, Polar Vortex is bringing freezing temperature back to the lower 48 states.
These weather perils are very destructive. In my opinion, the forces of nature could cause real damage to the entire U.S. economy.
Firstly, we could see a rebound in inflation
The Bureau of Statistics (BLS) reported that US CPI increased 0.4% in December and went up 2.9% year-over-year (YoY). Of which, the energy index decreased 0.5% YoY with energy commodities gasoline and fuel oil falling 3.4% and 13.1%, respectively. In contrast, energy services such as electricity increased 2.8% and natural gas (piped) rose 4.9% YoY.
The chart shows a correlation between CPI and natural gas prices. The underlying logic is the U.S. economic reliance on natural gas. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), about 43.1% of the electricity in the country was generated by natural gas.
In “Nat Gas: Trading the Weather”, I explained how cold temperatures increase natural gas demand for generating electricity and heating up homes.
Higher natural gas prices affect not just the storm-hit regions, the entire country also bears a higher cost for energy services. Larger utility bills raise the cost of producing and distributing all goods and services.
A leading indicator: When natural gas prices rise, inflation will likely go up.
Conclusion: As natural gas went up sharply, we could expect a higher CPI for January.
Secondly, we could see economic slowdown and higher unemployment
Many businesses in the passage of winter storms suffered loss of sales. People in parts of Los Angles were evacuated. The total cost for insurance payout, loss of revenue, debris cleanup and rebuilding amounts to hundreds of billions of dollars. Total US GDP was $28 trillion last year, or about $2.3 trillion per month. A quick calculation shows that the weather perils could shave off 1/10th of the US national output for the month of January!
Many S&P 500 companies are based in California or in the storm-hit regions. The actual damage to them will be revealed when they report quarterly earnings in April and May. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will report Q1 GDP on April 30th.
US unemployment has been on the rise since mid-2023. In my opinion, the A.I. driven technological revolution is responsible for many High-Tech layoffs. On January 10th, the BLS released its nonfarm payroll report and showed that unemployment in the Information sector was 98,000 in December 2024, up from 86,000 a year ago.
December is the busiest month for the Retail sector. However, retailers report total unemployment of 897,000 for the month, up 87,000 or 11% from December 2023.
When the BLS updates its payroll report in January, I expect to see higher unemployment data. The month-to-month data could be even worse, as January is usually a slow month after the December holiday season. In addition, winter storms and wildfires would push more businesses to shut down and lay off employees.
Finally, the uncertainty around economic policies under the new administration
I expect President Trump to raise “ice and fire” on his own. If his first term is any guide, we would see plenty of drastic policy changes impacting various industries. Uncertainties are not well embraced in the world of investment. Any new policy initiative could bring the market to chaos when the news breaks, regardless of its long-term effect.
During the first term, important policies (such as new tariff) were usually announced from Twitter tweets. This time around, they would likely come out of Truth Social tweets.
Trading with Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
In my opinion, the U.S. stock market will face more volatility in the coming months. Key economic data could be disappointing for investors.
• When the January nonfarm payroll report is released on February 7th, monthly employment data could trend lower, while unemployment rate ticks up. Signals of economic weakness could send the stock market lower.
• When the January CPI data is released on February 12th, the headline inflation could move higher. If this is the case, the Fed is less likely to lower interest rates. The stock market will face downward pressure.
• The Fed will meet on January 29th. According to CME Group FedWatch Tool, the futures market prices a Fed decision of no-change at 97.9%. However, the market consensus shows that Fed Funds rates could drop to 3.25-4.00% by December, indicating 1-4 rate cuts in 2025. The Fed has not committed to any further rate cut.
www.cmegroup.com
Given these scenarios, a trader could explore short-term opportunities by shorting the S&P 500 prior to the Big Report Dates.
The CFTC Commitment of Traders report provides further support to this thinking. The latest data shows that, as of January 14th, Leverage Funds hold 151,543 long positions and 448,908 short positions for E-Mini S&P 500 futures.
Despite the S&P nearing its all-time high, “Smart Money” already turns bearish. Shorts outweigh longs by a 3-to-1 ratio.
• They are also bearish on Nasdaq 100, by a 1:2 long-short ratio (43,254 vs. 82,724)
• This contrasts with the Dow contracts sharply. Leverage funds own Micro Dow by a 3:2 long-short ratio (17,591 vs. 10,051) during the same period.
The MES contracts offer smaller-sized versions of CME Group’s benchmark S&P 500 futures (ES) contracts. Micro futures have a contract size of $5 times the S&P 500 index, which is 1/10th of the E-Mini contract.
Micro contracts are very liquid. CME Group data shows that 1,095,979 contracts were traded on Thursday, January 16th. Open Interest at the end of the day was 129,228.
Buying or selling 1 MES contract requires an initial margin of $1,525. With Friday closing price of 6,040, each March contract (MESH5) has a notional value of $30,200. Compared with investing in stocks, the futures contracts offer a built-in leverage of about 20 times (=30200/1525).
Hypothetically, if S&P futures price falls 10% to 5,436, the price change of 604 points (6,040-5,436) will translate into $3,020 in profit for a short position, given each index point equal to $5 for the Micro contract. Using the initial margin of $1,525 as a cost base, the trade would produce a theoretical return of 198% (=3020/1525).
The risk to short Micro S&P is that the US stock market continues its spectacular rally. To limit the downside risk, a trader could set up a stop-loss when entering a short position.
For illustration, a short trade executed at 6,040 could be combined with a 6,200 stop. If the S&P goes up to 6,500, the trader’s position would be liquidated well before that. The maximum loss would be $800 (= (6200-6040) * $5).
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Can a breakthrough to the upside be maintained of S&P500?From the technical side, we are seeing a small push higher, breaking above a short-term downside line. Despite this being a somewhat positive occurrence, we would rather wait to see where we close at the end of Friday. For more information, please see the video.
MARKETSCOM:US500
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Planning Your Financial Future: A Balanced Approach to InvestingTake a moment to reflect: What do you want to achieve in life? Will you be able to consistently set aside money in the months and years to come? If you're planning to invest, it’s important to think long-term and adopt a strategy that minimizes risk while maximizing growth opportunities.
Rather than investing a large sum all at once—for example, $20,000—it’s often more effective to spread your investment over time. For instance, you could invest $1,000 each month for 20 months. This approach, known as dollar-cost averaging, allows you to buy at different price points, effectively averaging out the highs and lows of the market. It also helps you remain emotionally detached from market fluctuations since both rising and falling prices can work in your favor.
If you maintain a steady cash flow from your job and invest regularly in something like the S&P 500, this method can work even better. Additionally, you can adjust your strategy by contributing less during times when the market is overbought and saving that extra cash for opportunities when the market offers significant discounts.
Remember, everyone’s financial situation is unique. Your paycheck, expenses, and goals will shape your strategy. While I can't tell you exactly how to invest, this method of disciplined, consistent investing with flexibility for market conditions has worked well for me—and it might work for you too.
S&P 500 Index Drops to 2-Month LowS&P 500 Index Drops to 2-Month Low
On Friday, the US unemployment data was released, as reported by ForexFactory:
→ The unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%;
→ The number of new jobs (Non-Farm Employment Change) increased by 256,000 over the month, although analysts had forecast an increase of 164,000 (previous value = 212,000).
According to Reuters, the strong labour market data strengthened the market participants' view that the Federal Reserve will be cautious in cutting interest rates in 2025.
Based on CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders expect the Fed to reduce borrowing costs for the first time in June and then keep it at that level for the remainder of the year.
Expectations that tight monetary policy will persist longer than usual have led to bearish sentiment. As a result, the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) dropped below the 5,800 mark this morning, its lowest point since early November.
Technical analysis of the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows:
→ A bearish Head and Shoulders (SHS) pattern is visible on the chart;
→ The price has broken below the median of the ascending channel (marked in blue).
The strengthening bearish sentiment may lead to:
→ The price fluctuating within the descending channel, the boundaries of which are already visible (marked in red);
→ The median of this red channel currently acting as support.
It is possible that the intensification of bearish sentiment will result in the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) declining towards the 5,700 level, which may be reinforced by the proximity of the lower boundary of the ascending channel.
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