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SPY when stars align!as i was helping someone better understand some of these terms, like golden pocket... actually ill skip it. okay the SPY, everyone's favorite!... (to play 0dtes on) jk, i do it too sometimes. This is a great example of a "high probability set up" . when you have multiple indicators pointing to the same thing. we have not 1 not 2 not 3 but 4! indicators all lining up to a single area (when stars align, ahh) and it just so happens to be the area we were aiming for before we started charting. ADD CONVICTION 1. Previous S/R level & high volume area 2. Golden Pocket 3. Unfilled Gap 4. 50 Day Moving average all lining up to the same key zone, that 402.50 area. im not saying we get there tomorrow or the next day, we could never see it again nothings for sure. but if we do this is a critical level of support. because if it holds, that's still a higher low on the daily and weekly time frame. what am i watching for this week? that 406.15 call it 406 to 407.50 area im watching to see if that holds support, or if we break through it and go down to test that 404.50 area. and if thats broken then im targeting 401.50 to 402.50/403. Upside targets - almost every dollar is resistance and major major resistance around 417-422. 412 to 413.75 if we can get above that we could see alittle higher in the short term, im leaning slightly bearish to neutral. i want to see how the rest of the bank earnings affect the market this week. okay im tired and had to type this 3 separate times as this started with me showing a friend what the golden pocket was and how to use a basic fib. happy trading this week. cheers
AMEX:SPY
by Jbridgez
8
A wave higher and then a corrective pattern or trend reversalDear FRIEND, I hope you're doing well and that the new year has started on a good note for you. I wish you success in your business endeavors and a happy new year with your loved ones. As someone interested in the Elliott Wave principle, I find it to be a valuable tool for market analysis. I have developed my approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and by considering various scenarios that are likely to occur in the market. I am sharing my analysis with you. However, please note that I am not providing any buy or sell signals. My goal is to share my unbiased analysis with you so that you can use it as a guide to make informed decisions. In the attachment, I have included my previous analysis of the same market so that you can compare and see the. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, making it easy for you to understand (although having a basic familiarity with the Elliott Wave Principle theory will help you understand the analytical idea more easily). I have been studying the Elliott Wave principle for almost three years now. With time, my understanding of this knowledge and experience has increased. What I have achieved so far is a legacy of a genius named Ralph Nelson Elliott, and I am truly satisfied with my progress. May his soul rest in peace and his memory be cherished. Thank you for your support so far. I am grateful and will always remember your kindness. Please feel free to share your thoughts and feedback with me. I hope my analysis will be useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you all the best. Sincerely, (Mr. Nobody)
SKILLING:SPX500
by mehdi47abbasi79
2
HOW-TO Discover and Harness the Potential of the Dividend MarketDividend Market as well as Dividend futures trading shines bright, in accordance with CME Group @CME_Group Q3'23 Equity Insights Report. Dividend futures combined Q3 ADV reached 5.1K contracts, and OI averaged 284K contracts (+5% vs. Q2 2023). Over 77K contracts have traded since the launch of Annual Dividend Index futures on Nasdaq-100 NASDAQ:NDX and Russell 2000 TVC:RUT , which allow market participants increased options to manage U.S. dividend risk, especially as year end approaches. Understanding Dividends and Dividend Market 👉 A dividend is the distribution of corporate earnings to eligible shareholders. 👉 Dividend payments and amounts are determined by a company's board of directors. Dividends must be approved by the shareholders by voting rights. Although cash dividends are common, dividends can also be issued as shares of stock. 👉 The dividend yield is the dividend per share, and expressed as a percentage of a company's share price. 👉 Many companies - constituents of S&P500 Index DO NOT PAY dividends and instead retain earnings to be invested back into the company. 👉 The S&P500 Dividend Points Index (Annual) tracks the total dividends from the constituents of the S&P 500 Index. The index provides investors the opportunity to hedge or take a view on dividends for U.S. stocks, independent of price movement. The index resets to zero on an annual basis. 👉 Using the S&P500 Dividend Point Index (Annual) as the underlying in financial products, investors can hedge or gain exposure to the dividend performance of the S&P500 Index. Representation of S&P500 Dividend Points Index (Annual) over the past 5 years. Dividends points are to be collected through the calendar year, and reset to Zero on an annual basis Understanding S&P500 Annual Dividend Index Futures 👉 The S&P500 Annual Dividend Index futures CME:SDA1! calculates the accumulation of all ordinary gross dividends paid on the S&P500 index constituent stocks that have gone ex-dividend over a 12-month period. The amounts are expressed as dividend index points. 👉 The underlying index for S&P500 Annual Dividend Index futures is the S&P500 Dividend Index. The methodology for the index can be found here at S&P Global website. 👉 Dividend index points specifically refer to the level of index points that are directly attributable to the dividends of index constituents. They typically only capture regular dividends and calculate this on the ex-date of the respective constituents within each index. 👉 In general, “special” or “extraordinary” dividends are not included as dividend points in the respective annual dividend indices. 👉 Futures contract Unit is $ 250 x S&P 500 Annual Dividends Index. The Universe of S&P500 Annual Dividend Index futures with expirations dates over the next several years Understanding the Difference between 'Today' and 'Tomorrow' using S&P500 Annual Dividend Index Futures, or what is CME:SDA1! and CME:SDA2! Futures contracts 👉 CME:SDA1! is a Front S&P500 Annual Dividend Index futures contracts, that calculates expected dividend index points for current (in this time - 2023) calendar year. 👉 CME:SDA2! is a Next one S&P500 Annual Dividend Index futures contracts, that calculates expected dividend index points for the next one (in this time - 2024) calendar year. 👉 The difference (futures spread) between front and next one can give an expression to traders and investors. 👉 Macro conditions are good, and U.S. economy is doing well, so futures spread values are below Zero (expected dividend points for next year are bigger rather current). 👉 Macro conditions are bad and U.S. economy is getting worst, so futures spread values are above Zero (expected dividend points for next year are lower rather current). 🤝 Happy Dividend Market Trading to Everyone! Enjoy!
CME:SDA1!Education
by Pandorra
S&P500 Next Support LevelClosely monitor the zone indicated in above chart. Disclaimer: The information and analysis provided in this publication are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any securities. The author and TradingView are not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the content presented herein. Always consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
SP:SPX
by rukshan2102
Are Foreign Stocks Forging a Relative Comeback? Perhaps the most important macro driver for stock prices in the last year and a half has been the US Dollar Index. The DXY has ranged between the upper 90s and about 107 since the third quarter of 2022. When the greenback has been on the rise, equities have generally been weak. A softer dollar has led to a period of stock market strength. Of course, ebbs in the forex market are always crucial for foreign stocks. That brings me to today's idea. The Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU) has sharply underperformed the Total US Stock Market ETF (VTI) since 2007. In that time, the dollar has moved from the low 70s to well above 100. I like to compare the relative price chart of VTI to VEU for a gauge of relative strength between the US and non-US markets. Right now, it might appear that discarding VEU in favor of an all-US portfolio would make the most sense. But I am monitoring a potential false breakout on the chart of VTI/VEU. If we see a continued drop off in relative US strength, then a move toward support, illustrated on the chart could be in play over the coming months. So, don’t forget about the 37% chunk of the investable equity universe that is foreign stocks. Fundamentally, VEU trades about 13 times forward earnings estimates compared with about 19 times on the US cap-weighted index. The ex-US market also features more sector diversification and a higher dividend yield. Of course, this key technical move right now bears close watch for macro investors as 2024 gets underway.
AMEX:VTIShort
by mikezaccardi
1
History To Repeat Itself? S&P500Is it possible for the stock market to repeat itself? After the stronger-than-expected NFP last week investors are repricing the aggressive FED rate cuts expected for 2024. This was immediately affected in the stock market as the main indexes dropped and the dollar managed to recover some ground. The month of January is generally weak for the index as the 10-year average return for this month is only 0.17% making it one of the weakest periods for the index. A noticeable resistance zone can be spotted and used in advantage to look for shorts and get more than a 1:3 Risk-Reward-Ratio.
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by Elite_Forex
The Start of the US Recession is NearCurrent economic, fundamental, and now technical data suggest that we are potentially nearing the start of the US Recession. Here are the technical factors that suggests the recession may have already begun⤵️ On the 1W chart, Price has rejected the $4.8k key resistance level on the 1D chart, the price is overbought and the RSI is indicating a bearish divergence And lastly, our momentum indicators have all turned bearish today, indicating that the downtrend has officially started, from a technical POV.
SP:SPXShort
by AlgoAlpha
1
SPX S&P 500 Fell 10% After the Last U.S. Credit Downgrade !!!Fitch Ratings made a significant move by downgrading the US debt rating on Tuesday, shifting it from the highest AAA rating to AA+. The downgrade was attributed to a "steady deterioration in standards of governance." This decision followed intense negotiations among lawmakers to reach a debt ceiling deal, which posed a risk of the nation's first default. The S&P 500 experienced a notable decline of 10% within three months after the previous U.S. credit downgrade. The downgrade occurred on August 5, 2011, by Standard & Poor's, one of the major credit rating firms, following another intense debt ceiling battle. The day after the S&P downgrade, the S&P 500 suffered a nearly 7% drop, dubbed "Black Monday." Subsequently, the benchmark index declined by 5.7% that month and an additional 7.2% in September. Jim Reid, a strategist at Deutsche Bank, emphasized that the 12-year-old news of S&P being the first to downgrade was significant, allowing investors to adjust their perceptions of the world's most important bond market, which was no longer considered pure AAA. Nonetheless, Fitch's recent decision to downgrade remains impactful. In the current scenario, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.15%, the highest since November 2022. As for my price target for this year, it remains at $4900, as illustrated in the chart provided below: Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
SP:SPXShort
by TopgOptions
SPY S&P 500 ETF Price Prediction for 2024This was my article about the SPY S&P 500 ETF price target for 2023:https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPY/l6U1M9dJ-SPY-S-P-500-ETF-2023-Forecast-CPI-Report-Prediction/ I was bullish, but not enough! In the July 2023 meeting, the FOMC opted to raise interest rates to a range of 5.25%–5.50%, marking the 11th rate hike in the current cycle aimed at curbing elevated inflation. The prevailing consensus among market experts hints at a potential shift in strategy, suggesting that the Fed might commence rate cuts later in 2024 as inflation gradually aligns with the Fed's 2% target. Statistically, historical data indicates that approximately 11 months after the cessation of interest rate increases, a recession tends to manifest. This pattern places us around June 2024, aligning with my prediction of a dip in the SPY to approximately $430. Given that 2024 is an election year, there's an additional layer of complexity in predicting market behavior. Despite the anticipated mid-year dip, my inclination is that the SPY will conclude the year on a bullish note. This optimistic outlook hints at the onset of a 3-5 year AI bubble cycle, with the SPY boasting a year-end price target of $540. The integration of artificial intelligence into various sectors is expected to catalyze market growth and innovation, propelling the SPY to new heights by the close of 2024.
AMEX:SPYLong
by TopgOptions
Corrective trend extension pattern? End of impulse patternHello there, I hope you're having a great start to the new year. I wish you all the best in your trading ventures and a happy new year with your loved ones. I'm a fan of the Elliott wave principle, which I find interesting and useful for market analysis. I've developed my analytical approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and considering various scenarios that are likely to occur in the market. Although I'm going to share my analysis with you, please note that I won't be providing a buy or sell signal. My goal is to share my unbiased analysis so that you can use it as a guide to make an informed decision. To give you confidence in my analysis, I'll always share my previous analysis from the same market so that you can compare. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, making it easy for you to understand. I hope my analysis will be useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you the best. I'm waiting to hear from you. Finally, I'd like to remind you that like-mindedness and support, comments, and likes are the most important pillars of progress, like support points in the financial markets. They give me the energy to continue and share more ideas with you. Sincerely,
SKILLING:SPX500
by mehdi47abbasi79
Is the Santa Claus Rally Getting Snatched?2024 has opened on a sour note. S&P 500 futures are lower by about 0.7%. Not a huge move, but that's good enough to erase nearly all the gains since the close on December 21. Recall that the technical Santa Clause Rally period is the last five trading days of the old year and the first two sessions of the new year. As it stands, the S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) is up just fractionally from the final trade on Thursday, December 21 as apparent profit-taking is taking place after a +26% total return year finished up last Friday. Where is support on the chart of the SPX? A 3-year zoom of the index reveals that the August 2022 peak was 4637 and the July 2023 high was 4607. The rising 50-day moving average is all the way down at 4503 as of this morning. You have to go about 10% lower to find the 200-day moving average. For now, the intraday all-time high notched on the second trading day of 2022 appears safe at 4818.62. A modest January pullback to retest the low 4600s seems absolutely doable, particularly considering the bevy of macro data we are about to receive this week, namely the December employment report. Then comes the Q4 corporate earnings season, which gets underway on Friday, January 12. Earnings expectations for the full year are stout – strategists expect SPX EPS to rise from an estimated $221 of operating per-share profits in 2023 to $245 this year. With inflation ebbing, I expect more scrutiny to be paid to top-line figures from the world’s biggest companies. Also, lower interest rates could make share buybacks more doable, along with an uptick in M&A activity. For now, keep your eyes on the Santa Claus Rally as there have been just six negative SCR stretches since 1990, according to Ryan Detrick at Carson Group, and four of those years went out to have negative full-year returns.
AMEX:SPY
by mikezaccardi
1
Momentarily Bullish AgainOnce the last theory busted it was a return to the drawing board. I am now postulating we are back in Cycle wave B which I thought had been completed as initially forecasted during the summer 2023 (high was end of July). Not only was 4607 busted a few days back, it was blown out of the water today. What does this mean? With Cycle wave B now being larger than anticipated, Cycle wave C will likely last well through the 1st or even 2nd quarter of 2025. This likely indicates something worse than I initially forecasted will happen. The event or events will devastate economies enough to likely see the S&P 500 index lose close to half its value from the pending top. China taking Taiwan and temporarily controlling a majority of the microchips and production facilities will hold the world hostage. If a larger scale war breaks out, it will likely end or the tide will turn by 2025. I am still very bullish long-term, but will be bearish again around the end of this month. Here are the re-mapped modified wave counts CYCLE B PRIMARY A INTERMEDIATE 1-2 INTERMEDIATE 3-4 INTERMEDIATE 5 PRIMARY B PRIMARY C (so far) What levels are the models forecasting The levels to the right of the main chart are the historical quartiles for Cycle wave B end points. The 3 largest retracements are in red as 2 of them went beyond 100% (which is 4818 and would be a new all-time high). The levels to the left are the same historical data as it relates to movement extensions for the possible end point of Primary wave C inside of Cycle wave B. Models for Cycle B end: 2040 hours to 2059 ( this seems a little quick if Minor wave 3 just finished or is wrapping up). The lower white box is 4740-4755. The higher white box is 4790-4818. I figure we have at least a week left of this thing, maybe through end of year depending what Minor 4 does. 2,091 hours is next Friday and is what I stretched the top box out to. Models for Primary C in Cycle B end: Top yellow box is 4910-4920 for market top price. Middle yellow box is 4870-4880. Lower yellow box is 4790-4818. The duration models are all over the place. I will ignore the 2 largest values because they are the lengths of Primary wave A (1442 hours), and Primary wave B (1358). As I have mentioned before, common ratios of waves A to B and to C are 1:1, 1:2, 1:3, 1:4 (and those inverses) when the durations are very small (a few hours long) for micro wave sets. We are dealing with a macro wave in the current instance. Third strongest agreement is 679 hours which is half of Primary wave B's length which will also be ignored. After discounting the common ratios, the strongest agreement is at 220-250 hours, secondary agreement is 480-490, third is 270-290, fourth at 340-350. 232 hours aligns with the end of the lower white box which I assess to be too quick. 290 hours aligns with December 28th. I have placed the yellow boxes at 270-290 hours which straddles the holidays. Additional Calculations for Primary wave C: Primary wave B (1358 hours) was a slightly shorter duration than Primary wave A (1442). This means wave A's duration was 1.0619 times larger. I have sought similar situations when A is 1-1.11 times greater than wave B to understand potential characteristics of our current Primary wave C. Primary wave C is shorter 85.7% of the time. Based on these historics and applying prior ratios to the current conditions for Primary waves A and B, Primary wave C could last between 262-595 hours on the low end, and 711-830 hours on the high end. The market top has a low-end target between 4715-4794, a median at 4878, and high-end at 5096-5496. Based on the move back to Cycle wave B, the current data suggests the next market top could occur before the end of the year and we may fall just shy of 4818. The current setup reminds me of 2000-2009 but on a shorter scale duration wise. The market topped in March of 2000, found a bottom in October 2002 (which I call the end of wave A), moved above the prior market top by October 2007 (end of wave B), and the final wave C and market bottom was March of 2009. I see the similar thing playing out between January 2022-somewhere in early 2025. I will produce an additional analysis based on Minor wave 3 and Minor wave 4 inside of Primary wave C by tomorrow at the latest.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
1
IWM: A $240 Target in 2024. Here's Why It's Doable.Flip on financial TV and you will likely hear a plethora of sellside strategists and buyside portfolio managers voice optimism about small-cap US stocks. Consider that the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) was easily in negative territory on the year back in October. Fast forward just two months and the small-cap ETF is up close to 20% total return in 2023. The quick switch has come about amid the group’s fastest move from a 52-week low to a 52-week high in its history. IWM is now poised to print its third-best two-month rally since its inception more than 20 years ago. Is there more room to run? I think so. A breakout above the $200 mark, particularly on a weekly, monthly, and yes, even a yearly closing basis, is significant. Recall that IWM found support in the low $160s on a few occasions in the last year and a half after printing an all-time high above $240 in November 2021. Sellers flexed their muscles three separate times in 2022 and 2023 at the $200 mark. This $40 zone appears to be breaking in the bulls’ favor. That suggests a measured move upside target to $240 – close to the all-time high on IWM. I see some near-term resistance in the $210 to $215 area – the range lows from 2021. Indeed, there is likely a significant amount of ‘dead bodies’ lingering above $210 that may look to supply the market with shares in order to sell at the breakeven mark. Still, the technicals appear positive despite some near-term overbought readings on IWM. Another cautionary signal is that the January through mid-March stretch has featured some volatility at times for the broad market, so the pace of the advance will likely slow. I remain constructive on small caps looking into 2024, though.
AMEX:IWMLong
by mikezaccardi
End of impulse pattern? or trend extensionHello there, I hope you're having a great start to the new year. I wish you all the best in your trading ventures and a happy new year with your loved ones. I'm a fan of the Elliott wave principle, which I find interesting and useful for market analysis. I've developed my analytical approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and considering various scenarios that are likely to occur in the market. Although I'm going to share my analysis with you, please note that I won't be providing a buy or sell signal. My goal is to share my unbiased analysis so that you can use it as a guide to make an informed decision. To give you confidence in my analysis, I'll always share my previous analysis from the same market so that you can compare. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, making it easy for you to understand. I hope my analysis will be useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you the best. I'm waiting to hear from you. Finally, I'd like to remind you that like-mindedness and support, comments, and likes are the most important pillars of progress, like support points in the financial markets. They give me the energy to continue and share more ideas with you. Sincerely,
SKILLING:SPX500Long
by mehdi47abbasi79
SPY | SHORTAMEX:SPY Target Price1: 400$ Target Price2: 390$ Price Action: After a general uptrend from early 2021 to mid-2022, the price began to exhibit bearish behavior. As of late 2023, the price is seeing another decline. Support and Resistance: The price is currently approaching a significant support zone. If this support holds, we might expect a bounce. However, if broken, further decline is likely. Volume Profile: The histogram on the right showcases volume nodes, indicating areas of significant trading activity. There's a prominent volume node around the 390 mark, confirming it as a significant level. Historically, prices tend to be attracted to these high-volume areas, acting as magnets. Moving Averages: MA200 (Blue Line): This is a significant long-term moving average, and the price is going down to hit the MA200 as a major support level.
AMEX:SPYShort
by shkspr
1
🔥 S&P 500: Curve Analysis (6W) 🔥(Position Trade) SLO2 @ 4615 📉 SLO1 @ 4200 📉 TP1 @ 3410 TP2 @ 2745 TP3 @ 2255 TP4 @ 1550 BLO1 @ 1440 ⏳ BLO2 @ 875 ⏳ ADDITIONAL INFO: 🔥 Using this new ATH gives us a new HTF Curve ✍️ I'm anticipating the probability of POC @ 3489 will change from Support to Resistance 📉 If this curve holds, then we should expect a MASSIVE MARKET CRASH down to the mean around 1440 Major Support (Proximal) @ 1707.80 Major Support (Distal) 1342.60 ⚠️ Once PA reaches Demand this will be our signal that the Market as a whole is returning to a healthy state 🔑 ATH = ALL TIME HIGH BLO = BUY LIMIT ORDER HTF = HIGH TIME FRAME PA = PRICE ACTION SLO = SELL LIMIT ORDER TP = TAKE PROFIT Long-term time frames (1 week to 1 year): — Shows the big picture, revealing major trends and economic factors. — Less volatile, price movements are slower and smoother. — Suitable for long-term trend trading and position trading. — Requires less frequent monitoring but may offer fewer trading opportunities.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by ProfessorCEWard