S&P 500 Tests 5,300 as Inflation Eases, Fed Policy in FocusThe market remains cautiously optimistic as the S&P 500 tests the 5300 resistance level. The deceleration in inflation is promising, yet the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy remains uncertain. Investors should stay vigilant, monitoring economic data and Fed communications to navigate potential volatility and capitalize on market opportunities.
* S&P 500 at Resistance: The index tests 5,300 amid recent inflation data.
* Inflation Slowdown: Core CPI rose just 0.3% in April, the slowest pace in 3 years. This boosted stocks, with the S&P 500 reaching a new high.
* Fed Policy: The Fed may hold steady on rates in the near term, but a September cut is increasingly likely if inflation continues to moderate.
* Key Upcoming Data: The PCE price index (will released this week) and future inflation reports will be crucial for gauging the Fed's policy stance.
* Market Outlook: Cautious optimism prevails as investors weigh the inflation slowdown and potential Fed actions.
Sp500index
SP500. Weekly trading levels 27 - 31.05.2024During the week you can trade from these price levels. Finding the entry point into a transaction and its support is up to you, depending on your trading style and the development of the situation. Zones show preferred price ranges WHERE to look for an entry point into a trade.
If you expect any medium-term price movements, then most likely they will start from one of the zones.
Levels are valid for a week, the date is in the title. Next week I will adjust the levels based on new data and publish a new post.
! Please note that brokers have a difference in quotes, take this into account when trading.
The history of level development can be seen in my previous posts. They cannot be edited or deleted. Everything is fair. :)
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I don’t play guess the direction (that’s why there are no directional arrows), but zones (levels) are used for trading. We wait for the zone to approach, watch the reaction, and enter the trade.
Levels are drawn based on volumes and data from the CME. They are used as areas of interest for trading. Traded as classic support/resistance levels. We see the reaction to the rebound, we trade the rebound. We see a breakout and continue to trade on a rollback to the level. The worst option is if we revolve around the zone in a flat.
Do not reverse the market at every level; if there is a trend movement, consider it as an opportunity to continue the movement. Until the price has drawn a reversal pattern.
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S&P500 - Clues to BUYThe S&P 500 is my favorite market to trade however my strategy struggles when price enters All Time Highs by design. I tend to try and hold positions into ATH's and beyond but this recent uptrend has proven too aggressive for my entries (See attached ideas). Last weeks close is a very subtle clue about institutional intention to buy this market.
My intuition says S&P500 is likely to move higher and start the price exploratory process between 5600 - 5350. This is a common process pattern through the summer months observed historically (institutional investors allocate before leaving for summer vacation maybe?) Unfortunately, it also means any trades for me have reduced odds until price clearly defines levels that provide my strategy an edge.
As price explores above, I'll be mindful of quick tests of support. I personally would not be comfortable with any swing long entries above 5290, which seems unlikely. From a day trade perspective, 5325 should provided good support and I doubt price trades below it for very long. Time/Price analysis indicates 5600 is a good level to watch for exhaustion of this push. 5185 and 5510 could offer some setups. Daily closes below 5300 invalidates this idea.
Any trades related to this idea in the weeks to come will be posted below. Likes and Follows are appreciated
SPX500 potential buy the dip opportunityYesterday the SPX500 dropped around 0.8%. this sets up an interesting dynamic where short-term traders may look to capitalize.
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
SPX500 hourly tending to positiveThe SPX500 has some potential positives to it. These just need to convert. We're looking at trend-following indicators and momentum indicators.
This video is intended for the users of Stratos Markets Limited, Stratos Trading Pty. Limited and Stratos Global LLC, (collectively “FXCM Group”).
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com) :
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com) :
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy.
Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
VIX - Fear indicator shows concern but not panicTrue market capitulation fear events are marked with semi generational fear levels of the charts
Were at a point of a resistance , but could easily slice through this level if we get increasing levels of uncertainty and panic entering the markets
Could we see 30? Possibly
Google Overbought13 of the giant investment companies were on the side that sells googl in this ranks. I'm on the side of the googl area from $ 176 and I think it looks expensive. I can add it if it descends between $ 145 and $ 124. Especially I chase the candles in which the dfr indicator I have developed gives a scholar signal.
SPX: And Mrs. Market says not yet!!Well, my previous idea for a higher degree wave 4 got busted! Market is not ready to be bearish just yet. On Friday we got a breakout from the trendline resistance and retest. Next week we should expect a move upwards toward the next resistance at 5402. However, it seems like Market is poised to run towards the 1.236 fib extension of waves AB which is also around the 0.618 fib extension of Primary waves 1 and 2. If the contracting diagonal theory is correct, then that would be an area of interest to see the market turn for a bigger correction. If market decides to blow through those levels, then we need to rethink this whole count and maybe get even more bullish. For now, still looking for a higher degree top and a good 25%-30% correction in the next few months.
SPY S&P500 etf Bearish DivergenceIf you haven't already purchased SPY after the 2023 forecast: forecast:https://www.tradingview.com/chart/idea/l6U1M9dJ/
then it's important to be aware that there's a significant bearish divergence in the RSI of SPY, the S&P 500 ETF, which initiated at $469.
Anticipating a technical retracement to $495, given its prolonged period of being overbought!
SP500. Weekly trading levels 13 - 17.05.2024SP500 is again almost at a historical high, with one zone to go ahead.
During the week you can trade from these price levels. Finding the entry point into a transaction and its support is up to you, depending on your trading style and the development of the situation. Zones show preferred price ranges WHERE to look for an entry point into a trade.
If you expect any medium-term price movements, then most likely they will start from one of the zones.
Levels are valid for a week, the date is in the title. Next week I will adjust the levels based on new data and publish a new post.
The history of level development can be seen in my previous posts. They cannot be edited or deleted. Everything is fair. :)
----------------------------------------------
I don’t play guess the direction (that’s why there are no directional arrows), but zones (levels) are used for trading. We wait for the zone to approach, watch the reaction, and enter the trade.
Levels are drawn based on volumes and data from the CME. They are used as areas of interest for trading. Traded as classic support/resistance levels. We see the reaction to the rebound, we trade the rebound. We see a breakout and continue to trade on a rollback to the level. The worst option is if we revolve around the zone in a flat.
Do not reverse the market at every level; if there is a trend movement, consider it as an opportunity to continue the movement. Until the price has drawn a reversal pattern.
Don't forget to like Rocket and Subscribe!!! Feedback is very important to me!
Dividends Are Coming. S&P500 Annual Dividend Index FuturesA few months ago I started this research, research of Equity Index Dividend futures, provided by CME Group.
Well, sounds good. Let's continue..
Were you ready or not, but in February, 2024 Meta platforms (META) announced its first-ever in history cash dividend of $0.50 per share to be paid out on quarterly basis.
“We intend to pay a cash dividend on a quarterly basis going forward,” the company said in a release .
Meta stock surged for 20% after that amid other huge reasons.
Alphabet (GOOG) also issued first-ever dividend of 20 cents per share in April, 2024.
The news, announced alongside first-quarter earnings, helped to send the Google parent’s shares up 15%.
Dividend Market as well as Dividend futures trading shines bright.
Understanding Dividends and Dividend Market Futures
👉 A dividend is the distribution of corporate earnings to eligible shareholders.
👉 Dividend payments and amounts are determined by a company's board of directors. Dividends must be approved by the shareholders by voting rights. Although cash dividends are common, dividends can also be issued as shares of stock.
👉 The dividend yield is the dividend per share, and expressed as a percentage of a company's share price.
👉 Many companies - constituents of S&P500 Index still DO NOT PAY dividends and instead retain earnings to be invested back into the company.
👉 The S&P500 Dividend Points Index (Annual) tracks the total dividends from the constituents of the S&P 500 Index. The index provides investors the opportunity to hedge or take a view on dividends for U.S. stocks, independent of price movement, as S&P500 Dividend Index Futures is a market expectation of how many points Dividends Index will collect by the end of year.
👉 Using the S&P500 Dividend Index as the underlying in financial products, investors can hedge or gain exposure to the dividend performance of the S&P500 Index.
Understanding S&P500 Annual Dividend Index Futures
👉 The S&P500 Annual Dividend Index futures (main technical graph is for 2025 S&P500 Annual Dividend Index Futures) calculates the accumulation of all ordinary gross dividends paid on the S&P500 index constituent stocks that have gone ex-dividend over a 12-month period. The amounts are expressed as dividend index points.
👉 The underlying index for S&P500 Annual Dividend Index futures is the S&P500 Dividend Index. The methodology for the index can be found here at S&P Global website.
👉 Dividend index points specifically refer to the level of index points that are directly attributable to the dividends of index constituents. They typically only capture regular dividends and calculate this on the ex-date of the respective constituents within each index.
👉 In general, “special” or “extraordinary” dividends are not included as dividend points in the respective annual dividend indices.
👉 Futures contract Unit is $ 250 x S&P 500 Annual Dividends Index.
Technical considerations
🤝 Main technical graph (S&P500 Annual Dividend Index Futures 2025) indicates on strong bullish bias. Who knows, maybe at one sunny day even Tesla King, Elon Musk will unleash his E-pocket 😂
🤝 Happy Dividend Market Trading to Everyone! Enjoy!
SP500 Mid term planOur friend Fibonacci is showing up a possible next move for SPX. Actually is ranging exactly on the 1.618 level of the last leg, and usually this level to a retrace till the level 1. There we could probably see a reversal that could lead the price into the resistance area at 5250, but it's probably too early for that
SP500 in the hammer zoneSP500 reached a strong reversal area where price reacted in the previous week. I was expecting a little pump in my previous ideas, and honestly i wasn't expecting it to rise so much. But i am holding my short trades and i am adding more here, consider i expect a selloff this month. First target the support zone at 4990
When it comes to broadening wedges...AMEX:SPY Here we have a few broadening wedges. The last 2 were descending and SPY blasted off to new ath highs. Now were in a ascending wedge and sitting at 514. We have a few big name ERs that can put us back on the path to new aths but I think we are heading back to 480 by July based on the previous wedge behavior, and long support and resistance.
S&P 500 At Major Decision PointThe stock market is at a major decision point, with 1969 low unemployment up-trending for the better part of the last year. Low unemployment *potentially* signals the maximum productivity of an economy. This is an important area to watch and wait. If we break above and trend-line check into support it could mean a bull market similar to 1990's is starting.
However if it holds as resistance we're unfortunately looking at a move back down to support much much lower than where we are right now.
I'd like to think because of visiting support twice in the dot-com crash and mortgage crisis that we are much more likely to break upward. But caution should be on our minds.
It's a very good idea to sit on the sidelines and wait for a clear direction to emerge.
Good luck!
SP500// ES Key zone 26.9 stm.We have the initial Resistance zone which is the intraday Bias changing zone.
Where the market is going to move if ES/ SP500 holding below initial resistance following the FC announcement then the reason to weakness then could still remain in play for move down to initial support.
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Short-term Neutral-Bearish
Intermediate Neutral-Bearish
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Correction in a larger degree of wave (Bear scenario)Esteemed analysts and traders,
I hope this correspondence finds you in good health and high spirits, prepared to tackle the upcoming week with renewed energy. I extend my best wishes for your continued success in all your business endeavors. It is worth noting that success in trading is largely dependent on the consistent definition and adherence to one's own rules.
As a supporter of the Elliott Wave Principle, I consider this methodology an invaluable tool for market analysis. After three years of personal experience, I have developed my approach by combining this principle with meticulous consideration of different market scenarios. I strive to avoid market surprises by maintaining a range of market prospects, which enables me to recognize the market structure forming with 100% accuracy.
I am pleased to share my analysis with you, with the caveat that I do not provide buy or sell signals. My perspective on idea analysis is entirely impartial, and if my analysis meets your standards, it may serve as a guide to making an informed decision.
For your reference and comparison, I have attached my previous analysis of the same market. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled for ease of comprehension. Nonetheless, familiarity with the Elliott Wave Principle theory would facilitate an understanding of the analytical idea.
My study of the Elliott Wave Principle took nearly three years, during which my understanding and experience with this invaluable tool have grown. My progress thus far is a testament to the legacy of Ralph Nelson Eliot, whose genius has provided the foundation for my achievements. May he rest in peace.
I express my gratitude for your continued support and kindness, and welcome your comments and critiques.
May my analysis be a valuable asset to your business journey, and I remain sincerely yours,
Mr. Nobody
Bullish scenario