Trading Plans for THU. 09/07 - Back to the BasicsS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 09/07
As we wrote in our trading plans published yesterday, Wed. 09/06: "In this morning's session so far, markets continue to be listless with the bias sliding towards mildly bearish. Nevertheless, bears need to wait for a confirmation before taking any positional shorts - a daily close below 4450 today might give that confirmation".
The index failed to close below 4450 yesterday, but showed continued weakness. The price action in the pre-market session after the Initial Jobless Claims is showing the potential for further weakness to develop. The retail positioning and the retail sentiment reinforce our view for a downward push to follow in the coming days. Rising yields are renewed concern for the bulls.
Our models are sporting outright bearish bias for positional trades while the index is below 4470. The index has to close above 4507 for our models to abandon the bearish bias.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4490, 4472, 4445, or 4419 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4488, 4468, 4457, 4442, or 4415 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit short exits on a break above 4459. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:31am EST or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #risingyields, #initialjoblessclaims
Sp500index
SP500 Is In A Higher Degree CorrectionSP500 has been bullish most of the year; a trend that can resume after a corrective pullback that is underway now, seen in wave 4 on a daily chart. However, wave 4 should then be made by three waves before correction can come to an end; which is not the case yet, as the recent bounce to 4492-4543 resistance area looks like a corrective wave, ideally wave (B), so be aware of more weakness after recent turn down. Ideally, wave (C) of 4 is now underway towards the lower side of a summer range. If wave (A) low is not going to be broken then wave four can also become a triangle rather than deep A-B-C drop.
Consolidation, ContinuedS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 09/06
As we wrote in our trading plans published yesterday, Tue. 09/05: "Markets appear searching for a direction, with a mild bias to the upside which appears to be waning. This week could reveal some clues as to the near term direction".
In this morning's session so far, markets continue to be listless with the bias sliding towards mildly bearish. Nevertheless, bears need to wait for a confirmation before taking any positional shorts - a daily close below 4450 today might give that confirmation.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4501, 4490, 4472, or 4445 with a 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4496, 4488, 4468, 4459, or 4442 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit short exits on a break above 4462. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:46am EST or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #oilprices
Consolidation Week Ahead?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 09/05
As we wrote in our trading plans published Fri. 09/01: "The NFP numbers paint a picture of potentially the hoped-for Goldilocks scenario could continue into the next Fed meeting, continue to push up the markets higher. On the flip side, any weakness in today's regular session could indicate the beginning of the end of the recent bull run".
Markets appear searching for a direction, with a mild bias to the upside which appears to be waning. This week could reveal some clues as to the near term direction.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4432, 4418, or 4502 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4528, 4516, 4498, or 4488 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4510, and short exits on a break above 4491. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:41am EST or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #oilprices
2 Down Days does not a Bear makeIts true but while Bears are salivating on these moves there is still room to hurt them and liquidate some of their accounts.
Bullish structure has not been broken for one.
Yes Price will gap down opening next week. But a possible bounce can be found anywhere around 4556...so keep your eyes 👀 opened.
My advise TP the majority of your shorts and you can watch from the sidelines with a smile on your face either way.
Weekly Update: 4256 Remains the Next Target DownThe area of ES 4256 is welcoming to all who have a trading thesis. Whether you're bullish or bearish, that remains the short term target for SP500 Futures. Once that level is reached, it becomes a jump ball.
In the above chart you'll notice an impulsive 5-wave count down labeled in BLUE, and an orange count labeled abc with an arrow pointing higher. The 4256 area is of the utmost importance. The outcome of bouncing or failing decides the direction for the remainder of 2023.
Enjoy your Labor Day Weekend.
Best to all,
Chris
SHORTING $SPY (MARKETS ARE OVERBOUGHT?)Why I am bearish on the S&P 500?
- WBR Forecast indicator is BEARISH
- We are entering a key zone which we've struggled to breakout from for the past 5 months.
- Jim Cramer is bearish (Usually not a good thing lol) #inversecramer
My personal trade:
Stop Loss / Take Profits:
- Entry: $455.45
- Take Profit 1: $432.24
- Take Profit 2: $412.06
- Take Profit 3: $386.44
- Stop Loss: $464.89
The Plan:
Scale 50% of position at Take Profit 1 (TP1) and move stop loss to TP1.
Scale 50% of remaining position at Take Profit 2 (TP2) and move stop loss to TP2.
Scale rest of position at Take Profit 3.
NFP Numbers and the GoldilocksS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 09/01
As we wrote in our trading plans published Mon. 08/28: “If we get a daily close above 4415 today then our models will flip to a moderately bullish bias. If not, they will continue to sport their bearish bias”. We got this confirmation with Monday's close, and our models have turned cautiously bullish on Tue. 08/29. Ever since, the markets have been on the upswing heading into - and, post - the NFP numbers release this morning.
The NFP numbers paint a picture of potentially the hoped-for Goldilocks scenario could continue into the next Fed meeting, continue to push up the markets higher. On the flip side, any weakness in today's regular session could indicate the beginning of the end of the recent bull run.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4568, 4547, 4532, 4509, or 4491 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4565, 4543, 4517, 4506, or 4488 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4555 or 4529, and short exits on a break above 4559 04 4522. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:31am EST or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #bankdowngrades, #nfp, #jobs, #nonfarmpayrolls, #payrolls
SP500 bullishSeems like SP500 is printing a bullish inverse H&S pattern.
Good sign for Stocks, bad for DXY.
Time For The Long Await Selloff?IF Intermediate wave 2 finally ended, this will serve as the current preliminary analysis for tracking Intermediate wave 3 down. Confirmation of Intermediate wave 2 ending will take at least 3 more days, so this analysis is subject to change. Based on the most specific historical models that are relationally relevant to an Intermediate wave 3, the quartile movement extensions serving as checkpoints and likely bottom (pink levels on chart) for Intermediate wave 3 are 165.83%, 181.41%, and 227.27%. The models cannot agree on a specific duration in hours, however, there are pockets of agreement with the strongest at 168-175 hours, secondary is 185-192, third is 149-156 hours. The next set of data is slightly broader and places the quartile movement extensions (light blue levels) at 147.09%, 165.83%, and 306.68%. Strongest model agreement for duration is at 70 hours (which was the length of Intermediate wave 2), secondary is 112 (length of Intermediate wave 1) and 426 hours while third model agreement is at 155, 174, and 199 hours. The broader set of historical data has extension quartiles (yellow levels) at 141.46%, 176.435%, and the third quartile remains at 306.68%. Strongest model agreement for duration is 70 and 426 hours (which are unlikely for wave 3) with secondaries at 112, 142, and 224 (double length of wave 1). Third most agreement is at 168, 174, and 213 hours.
Preliminary forecast is the bottom around 174 hours which is around October 6th. The bottom could be between 4114-4156, but likely below 4140. The levels in this assessment will not change but the forecasts for the bottom will be updated in future forecasts as each of the 5 waves near completion. Intermediate wave 4 should begin more upward movement after Intermediate wave 3 has completed. September looks like a selloff, but October should claw back 20-50% of the losses.
Early highs today, begin September selloff tooBased on today’s open, Minute wave 4 likely lasted one hour near the end of trading yesterday. This sets the table for an earlier high in the markets today before everything should go south for the remainder of the week. Using the most specific datasets for determining Minute wave 5’s duration points to it only lasting 2 hours with secondary at 3 hours. Fourth duration is 6 hours and fifth is tied at 4, 7, or 9 hours. The minimum move for this dataset is 101.86% extension of wave 3 (already surpassed at open). Quartiles are 116.85%, 121.90%, and 128.83% with maximum historical move at 198.67% (and likely well out of reach today). The next projections based on slightly broader data has the extension quartiles at 112.59% (4535.06), 136.765% (4560.80), and 147.05%. The duration models agree most at 2 hours, secondary at 3 hours, fourth at 1 hour, and fifth at 6 hours. The broadest dataset has the extension quartiles at 110.87%, 128.83%, 156.22%. Strongest model duration is at 1 hour, second is 2 hours, third is 3 hours, fourth is 5 hours, fifth is 6 hours, sixth is 5 hours.
Looks like Minute wave 5 began at the 4505.88 low with about 1.5 hours left to trade on August 30th. It preceded to complete Minuette wave 1 up with a top at 4519.24 and then Minuette wave 2 down at 4510.89. The index open today in Minuette wave 3 which should be followed by a wave 4 down and final final wave 5 up. With this analysis written within the first 30 minutes of trading on August 31st, Minute wave 5 is currently in its third hour and possibly ending Minuette wave 3. The market top is fixing to end prior to 1230 eastern time today around 4535-4544. Markets should be deep in the red after today which is setting up for a heavy selloff in September.
Time to test next theoryNOTE: All times are eastern time zone
IF we are in the early stages of Intermediate wave 3, it is currently projected to last 154 to 174 hours with strongest model agreement at 168 hours. Historically, Minor wave 1s inside of Intermediate wave 3s move between 17.7%-34.14% of the larger wave’s movement. For example, if Intermediate wave 3 moves 168 hours, Minor wave 1 should last at least 17.7% of that duration which is 29.74 hours which rounds to 30 hours. 30 hours from the beginning of Intermediate wave 3 on August 24 places the estimated bottom for Minor wave 1 on or after 1130 on August 30. The higher end of the range would place the bottom before 34.14% of 168 hours (57.36 hours, rounded to 57) which is 1030 on September 6.
Similar historical data is applied to attempt in finding the bottom of Minor wave 1. Intermediate wave 3 is projected to end between 4120-4200. Minor wave 1 tends to account for 34.1%-56.62% of the larger wave’s movement. If the bottom is closer to 4160, Intermediate wave 3 would drop a total of 298.30 points and Minor wave 1 would likely end between 4289.39-4356.59.
THINGS TO WATCH NEXT:
Main hypothesis: These estimates have created a possible target box to determine the end of Minor wave 1. If this box is accurate, the bottom early today could be the end of Minute wave 1 and the upward movement afterward could be Minute wave 2. This would obliviously indicate next week goes lower than today’s low. If Minute wave 1 ended today, historical data should put the end of Minute wave 2 in the following area. Most specific models have quartile retracements at 31.22%, 45.73% and 78.52%. with strongest duration at 3 hours and secondary duration at 4 hours. Next dataset places quartile movement retracements at 26.14%, 40.25%, and 60.26%. Duration forecasts point to 4 hours, with secondary agreement at 1 or 8 hours, and third at 2 hours. The broader dataset points to quartiles of 28.18%, 44.4%, and 69.26%. Duration is strongest at 8 hours with secondary at 2 hours, third at 4 hours, fourth at 1 hour, and fifth at 3 hours. Current stats for this possible Minute wave 2 have it at 4 hours long as of 1510 on August 25th. The high so far is above the 60.26% retracement level. If this is Minute wave 2, it is likely near the end.
Hypothesis 2: It is also possible Minor wave 1 ended with the low today. Next week would still have red, but the end of Intermediate wave 3 is likely much sooner than the end of September.
Hypothesis 3: It is also possible the historical data is wrong and the end points for Minor wave 1 are someone completely different.
Additional possibilities place the market outside of Intermediate wave 3 altogether.
Hypothesis 4: The market could still be working through Intermediate wave 2 which would mean a new high above 4458.30 occurs next week.
Hypothesis 5: The market could also be in a completely different place than Intermediate waves 2 or 3 causing unknown future gyration.
Watching the next 2-3 trading days should rule out some theories.
August 29 forecast: down early, end upBLUF: Down early tomorrow, finish up for the day, next possible near-term market top on Thurday.
NOTE: All times eastern.
The leading theory that does not bust everything has the index possibly back in Intermediate wave 2 and near the end of it. The far-right side has the levels of interest previously identified for Intermediate wave 2’s possible movement. All median levels have been surpassed and the maximum level on the most specific dataset is the next target at 4521.44. Remaining duration targets for Intermediate wave 2 are 56 and 62 hours. Hour 56 is the first hour of trading on August 29 while hour 62 is the final hour of trading on that day. If the analysis below is correct, the top would likely occur closer to hour 62.
The first projection to work on is the end to Minor wave C based on the location of Minor waves A and B in yellow letters. The levels to monitor are on the far-left side of the chart. The most specific historical durations yet to occur are at 24 and 40 hours. Hour 24 which is plausible and would occur on or before 1430 tomorrow afternoon. Hour 40 would be the final hour of trading on Friday September 1. The movement extensions point to a minimum of 87.26%, median of 111.365% and maximum of 224.28%. The next set of slightly broader wave data points to durations of 24 and 26 hours after the strongest agreement at 34 hours. The strongest model agreement resides with 34 hours, however, this was the length of wave A and not likely the duration here. Frequently, in shorter duration micro waves, the relationship between waves A and C can be 1:1. Minor wave A in this case was much longer than those observed in micro waves and not necessarily the sought after endpoint here. Hour 26 would be the first hour of trading on Thursday. The quartile movement extensions are 110.40% (first quartile), 126.14% (median), 126.49% (third quartile). All of these have been surpassed at this time. The next historical target is 132.33% and max historical for this dataset is 212.58%. The broadest dataset points to 24 or 34 hours for duration, with 34 hours possibly being ruled out as mentioned above. The quartile extensions are 110.54%, 126.49%, and 172.42%.
The next wave to attempt to place is Minute wave 3 (small green numerals) based on the probable completions of waves 1 & 2. Wave 3 could be complete, but it is better to see where it should complete instead of calling the most recent bar an endpoint. Strongest model agreement for duration is at 6, 11, or 12 trading hours. Currently Minute wave 3 is believed to be at 9 hours. Hour 11 is the second hour of trading on August 30. Wave 3s inside of wave Cs tend to be large and the historical quartiles for the most specific wave data has a minimum move of 128.71%, first quartile of 148.98%, median at 293.64%, and third quartile at 310.56%. It is unlikely the median would be hit in this case, but the first quartile has already been exceeded. The next set of slightly broader data points to a duration of 6 hours, with secondary agreement at 10-15 hours. The movement extension quartiles are 127.17%, 198.80%, and 273.68%. The final dataset has strongest model agreement for duration at 6 hours, then 12 hours, 24 hours, and then 8 and 10 hours. The quartile levels are similar to the ones from the last dataset.
Based on this data, either wave 3 has topped and the market will move down for a few hours into Minute wave 4, or the market will move up to start and then down into wave 4. Once waves 3 and 4 complete tomorrow. If the market moves up toward 4510 and then down to 4485, Minute wave 5 could last around 4-6 hours based on historical data. Additionally, there is a possible prior support/resistance line around 4527/4528 that could be an interesting test. Minute wave 5 inside of Minor wave C tends to account for 31-55% of Minor wave C’s movement. If wave C tops at the potential 4527 resistance, this would mean Minor C could move 53.34 to 94.85 points. 53.34 points added to a hypothetical bottom at 4485 would place the top around 4538. This would mean a Minute wave 4 bottom around 4475 would be more likely to allow Minute wave 5, Minor wave C, and Intermediate wave 2 to top at 4527. Depending how long it takes Minute wave 4 to find a bottom, the end of Minute wave 5 would more likely occur on Thursday. The RSI is high and tomorrow's wave 4 will help it come down a bit before the next near-term market top.
Turning Cautiously BullishS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 08/29
As we wrote in our trading plans published yesterday, Mon. 08/28: "If we get a daily close above 4415 today then our models will flip to a moderately bullish bias. If not, they will continue to sport their bearish bias". We got this confirmation with yesterday's close, and our models are turning cautiously bullish for today.
There are mixed signals about the viability of this push up, hence the cautiousness. With the economic released coming in rest of the week, with the culmination into the NFP Friday, there is a risk of volatile spikes in either direction. If you are entering into a positional trade, make sure you have enough bandwidth to sustain wide swings.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4486, 4476, 4463, or 4454 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4483, 4473, 4460, 4450, or 4437 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit short exits on a break above 4443. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:46am EST or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #bankdowngrades, #nvidia
"Livermore's Speculative Chart" Super Bubble Starting? Global M2
Livermore's Speculative Chart starting to look scary now doesn't it?
"Central Banks 2008" Lets create 101.29T dollars weaved into the fabric of society that cannot be removed without collapsing everything.
"Central Banks 2023" We've created too much money we need to raise rates to stop markets over heating and creating a super bubble.
"FRED Removes 1 Trillion"
Failed banks Date closed
Heartland Tri-State Bank 07/28/2023
First Republic Bank 05/01/2023
Signature Bank, New York 03/12/2023
Silicon Valley Bank, Santa Clara, Calif. 03/10/2023
Lets also create BTFP + increase RRP.
Not even 1 Trillion reduced without almost capsizing the entire financial system.
This is why you don't artificially create 10s of trillions of dollars that should never have existed.
"Jerome Powell Resigns 2024"
4400 Breakout Confirmation Today?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 08/28
As we wrote in our trading plans published Thu. 08/24: "It remains to be seen if this morning's surge above 4400 will be convincing enough for our models to abandon the bearish bias by tomorrow". On Friday, 08/25, we wrote: "Based on the early session action, we are not abandoning our bearish bias yet. We will reevaluate this on Monday".
If we get a daily close above 4415 today then our models will flip to a moderately bullish bias. If not, they will continue to sport their bearish bias.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4433, 4426, 4407, 4402, or 4387 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4424, 4413, 4405, 4398, or 4384 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4430. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:16am EST or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
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SPX S&P 500 Fell down after the U.S. Credit Downgrade As I said in the last SPX article, the S&P 500 experienced a notable decline of 10% within three months after the previous U.S. credit downgrade:
Now it seems like SPX, the S&P 500 index, started to follow the pattern.
According to the past retracement, this time the Price Target of SPX is $4080 by October.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Time for a pullback before we consider the next moveIt does not seem to be enough to just get everyone bullish, we also needed the bears to give up. If this was the final short squeese we might just have ended the complacency stage.
Some reasons why we could see a pullback now:
1. We exactly touched the fibonacci retrace level at 78.6%
2. We are at the top of a potential downward trend channel
3. Overbought
4. Red dot, indicating sell pressure
5. Global liquidity being drained