Is Sugar the New 'Dr. Copper'? What Mean for the S&P 500?Sugar isn’t just the sweet powder we add to coffee. It’s a global commodity whose price swings reveal surprising truths about the world economy. With sugar prices now hovering near the 17.5–17.7 per pound support level for the sixth time since 2022, it’s time to ask: What story are these numbers telling us?
Sugar’s History: Peaks and Valleys
Sugar has always been a fickle player in commodity markets. Its price has soared above $20 per pound due to droughts or poor harvests, only to crash when supply outstrips demand. But today’s figures are particularly troubling.
Facts:
In recent months, sugar prices have not only approached multi-year lows but remain stagnant.
Low prices signal weak demand. And where there’s no demand, there’s no production growth.
But let’s zoom out: If sugar is losing its appeal, could this be a sign of slowing economic activity? If you think this is speculative, consider real-world data.
“Dr. Copper” vs. “Dr. Sugar”
We all know copper is the economy’s barometer, correlating with industrial production, construction, and tech innovation. But why isn’t sugar part of the conversation? 🍬
Why Sugar Matters:
The Confectionery Industry: Sugar is a cornerstone of baked goods, candies, and everyday staples. A drop in consumption could reflect shrinking consumer purchasing power.
Global Ubiquity: Unlike copper, sugar is used everywhere—from developing economies to wealthy nations. Its demand mirrors economic sentiment and living standards.
The U.S. Economic Outlook: Alarming Signals
Recent U.S. economic indicators paint a grim picture:
Rising Unemployment: The U.S. unemployment rate hit 4.1% in Feb 2025 (up from 3.9% a year prior), signaling job losses in key sectors.
Slowing GDP Growth: expanded by 2.8% in 2024, little-changed from the 2.9% growth recorded in the previous year- below analysts’ expectations.
Inflation “Cooling”: While inflation dipped to 2.4% in March, falling commodity prices (like sugar) may hint at deflationary pressures.
What “Dr. Sugar” Reveals
Connecting the dots—low sugar prices, slowing production, rising unemployment, and weak GDP growth—paints a clear picture: The U.S. (and global) economy is at a crossroads.
Key Takeaways:
Falling sugar prices may signal early-stage declines in consumer demand.
Deflationary trends could threaten the S&P 500 as companies face shrinking revenues and margins.
Given current data, the risk of a recession within months remains high.
How to Use Sugar as an Economic Indicator
To track economic health:
Monitor Exchange Prices: Sudden sugar price drops may foreshadow economic slowdowns.
Compare with Other Staples: Track correlations with wheat, corn, and other food commodities to gauge consumer behavior shifts.
Watch Producers: Food industry giants often react first to demand changes. Study their earnings reports.
Conclusion: A Sweet Indicator of Bitter Times?
Sugar is more than a raw material—it’s a mirror reflecting economic sentiment. Today, with prices near historic lows and U.S. economic data flashing warning signs, we must ask: Are we ready for a potential recession?
I believe “Dr. Sugar” deserves more attention. What’s your take? Join the discussion and share your thoughts! 💬
Sp500index
Daily Price Action: S&p500 SPX Tuesday 4/15/2025 In this video, we are looking into the potential daily price action of SPX.
How to Trade the Tariff Turmoil: Markets Now Move on HeadlinesMarkets in 2025 have become increasingly unpredictable, largely driven by one factor: tariffs. President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policy has shaken investor confidence and turned global markets into a rollercoaster. The key to navigating this new environment? Understand that markets are no longer just reacting to economic data—they’re reacting to headlines.
The biggest shock came on April 2, when Trump announced a 145% tariff on all Chinese imports and “reciprocal” tariffs on dozens of other countries. The reaction was immediate: the S&P 500 dropped nearly 15% at its lowest point that week, and investors rushed to sell risk assets. Days later, markets sharply reversed after Trump temporarily suspended some tariffs. That sparked a rally—tech stocks soared, Apple rose 5%, and the Nasdaq gained over 2%.
But the relief was short-lived. Conflicting messages and partial rollbacks continued to send markets up and down. Earlier, on March 4, tariffs were placed on Canada and Mexico, while China’s rates were doubled. These moves led to more selling in stocks and a spike in demand for bonds. By mid-April, exemptions for electronics boosted tech names again, but overall market sentiment remained fragile.
How to Trade This New Market
The main lesson for traders and investors is clear:
We’re now in a headline-driven market. Traditional strategies that rely solely on fundamentals or economic cycles are being overshadowed by sudden political developments. Here’s how to adapt:
Stay Nimble and News-Aware
Be ready for fast moves. Market direction can flip in minutes based on a single press conference or tweet. Have alerts set for major geopolitical and tariff-related headlines. Reduce position sizes during uncertainty and avoid holding large trades through major announcements.
Rethink Your Safe Havens
The U.S. dollar is no longer acting like the safe haven it used to be. With rising fiscal concerns and volatile trade policy, investors are shifting toward alternatives. Gold and the Swiss franc (CHF) have become more reliable options during risk-off moments. If uncertainty spikes, these assets may offer better protection than the dollar.
Focus on Sectors Sensitive to Policy
Tech stocks have been among the most affected. Tariff exemptions caused sharp rallies, while new restrictions triggered big drops. If you trade sectors like tech, consumer goods, or industrials, stay especially alert for trade-related headlines.
Bottom line: In 2025, geopolitics is moving markets more than ever. The old playbook needs updating. By staying flexible, tracking headlines, and turning to traditional safe havens like gold and CHF, traders can better navigate the noise—and find opportunity in the chaos.
“Markets are strong” – Are they really?President Trump recently stated that "markets became very strong once they got used to tariffs."
But let’s look at the facts:
📊 AMEX:SPY is down -9% YTD, and major names like:
MSFT: -7.55%
AAPL: -18.66%
NVDA: -12.94%
Tech is bleeding, and the broader S&P 500 is clearly reflecting the pressure of trade policy uncertainty.
🟥 Tariffs = market stress
🟩 Market resilience = not the same as strength
What we’re seeing is not a “strong market” — it’s a market under pressure trying to survive political noise. The weekly chart shows a clear drop after the peak, followed by uncertainty, not conviction.
💭 Is this truly the “strength” investors want to see?
SPY Back Up To Fill GapWe have a nice little gap above us and there is a good chance we can fill it. Also, we have a bull-flag formation that is likely to play out. Not financial advice.
SPY Analysis: Navigating Tariff-Induced VolatilityContinuing from my last update, market volatility remains high due to Trump's unpredictable policy decisions. After initially folding and offering economic relief, Trump pivoted sharply with a sudden 145% tariff announcement. Today, China countered strongly with a 125% tariff. These escalating tariff exchanges continue to create significant uncertainty and market fluctuations, highlighting the critical need for careful analysis and precise trade management.
Technical Breakdown (4-Hour Chart)
Current Price Zone: Around $528.45
Key Resistance Levels:
- Immediate Resistance: $536.50 (L.Vol ST 1b)
- Critical Resistance: $549.33 - $549.60 (L.Vol ST 2b)
- Major Resistance Zone (Liberation Day): Approximately $562.16
Support Levels:
- Initial Support: $523.67 (Best Price Short)
- Secondary Support: $510.84 (L.Vol ST 1a)
- Important Lower Support: $498.01 (L.Vol ST 2a)
- Strong Support Level (Trump Folded area): ~$485.18
Trading Scenarios
Bullish Scenario (Potential Tariff Tension Relief):
- Entry Trigger: Confirmed breakout and sustained hold above resistance at $536.50.
Profit Targets:
- Target 1: $549.33 (next strong resistance level)
- Target 2: $562.16 (major resistance)
- Stop Loss: Below immediate support at $523.67, carefully managing downside risk.
Bearish Scenario (Ongoing Tariff Escalation or Increased Market Fear):
Entry Trigger: Inability to reclaim $536.50, or a decisive breakdown below support at $523.67.
Profit Targets:
- Target 1: $510.84 (nearest significant support)
- Target 2: $498.01 (secondary critical support)
- Target 3: $485.18 (robust support area)
- Stop Loss: Above resistance at $536.50 to protect against potential reversals.
Thought Process & Final Thoughts
The SPY currently trades within clearly defined resistance and support bands, heavily influenced by unpredictable tariff-driven headlines. Trump's volatile policy shifts and China's assertive retaliations amplify short-term market risks. Maintain flexible trading strategies, adhere strictly to established levels, and practice disciplined risk management. Continuous monitoring and swift response to evolving market sentiment will be essential for navigating this challenging environment effectively.
BITCOIN 2025 - THE LAST HOPECRYPTOCAP:BTC currently finds itself at the intersection of geopolitical tensions and broader macroeconomic uncertainty. Although traditionally viewed as a hedge against systemic risk, it is presently exhibiting characteristics more aligned with high-risk assets. The FED's forthcoming policy decisions will likely play a pivotal role in determining whether Bitcoin stabilizes or experiences further downward pressure.
The chart represents the most optimistic scenario for Bitcoin to date
SP500: Optimism in the markets !! No Fear !!Mr. Trump MANIPULATES THE WORLD as he pleases, and WE AS ANALYSTS have to BE COLD and be VERY ATTENTIVE to the news MORE THAN EVER!! And of course, NO FEAR.
--> What does the SP500 and the rest of the indices and stocks look like?
From my point of view, yesterday's news of granting a 90-DAY TRUCE on tariffs GIVES US THE POSSIBILITY OF UPSIDES for at least the next 2 months (ALWAYS with Trump's permission). Furthermore, we've also learned that US inflation fell to 2.4% in March, and the core rate to 2.8%, below expectations, which is VERY GOOD for the markets.
With this data and the SHARP FALLS accumulated so far this year!!, UPSIDES ARE COMING!!
Yesterday, the indices rose by nearly 10%, and it's normal for them to be falling by 5% today. If we observe the H1 chart above, the price has fallen to the 50% Fibonacci zone, meaning we are already in a good entry zone.
--> We can do 2 things:
When the price in lower timeframes (M15 chart below) shows us a bullish signal (Bull), make the long entry.
Go long in the zone between the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci (current zone).
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Strategy to follow:
ENTRY: We will open 2 long positions when the price enters the Fibonacci zone (50% - 61.8%) or when a lower timeframe chart gives us the bullish signal (Bull).
POSITION 1 (TP1): We close the first position in the 5,490 zone (+5.8%)
--> Stop Loss at 4,900 (-3.5%).
POSITION 2 (TP2): We open a Trailing Stop type position.
--> Initial dynamic Stop Loss at (-3.5%) (coinciding with the 4,900 of position 1).
--> We modify the dynamic Stop Loss to (-1%) when the price reaches TP1 (5,490).
SETUP CLARIFICATIONS
*** How to know which 2 long positions to open? Let's take an example: If we want to invest 2,000 euros in the stock, we divide that amount by 2, and instead of opening 1 position of 2,000, we will open 2 positions of 1,000 each.
*** What is a Trailing Stop? A Trailing Stop allows a trade to continue gaining value when the market price moves in a favorable direction, but automatically closes the trade if the market price suddenly moves in an unfavorable direction by 1 a determined distance. That determined distance is the dynamic Stop Loss.
--> Example: If the dynamic Stop Loss is at -1%, it means that if the price falls by -1%, the position will close. If the price rises, the Stop Loss also rises to maintain that -1% on the upside, therefore, the risk becomes lower and lower until the position becomes profitable. This way, very solid and stable trends in the price can be taken advantage of, maximizing profits
US500 Historical Rallies & Pullbacks with a Potential ProjectionI’ve observed the US500’s performance over the years, marking rallies with a blue line and pullbacks with a yellow line. Looking at the chart, a systematic repetition of these movements emerges, which, at first glance, seems to follow a recognizable pattern.
Specifically, I’ve cloned the blue line from the rally that started on 03/23/2020 and ended on 12/20/2021, now represented by a green line, to hypothesize a potential future rally. This clone is based on the duration of previous pullbacks:
The first pullback, before the 2020 rally, began on 02/20/2020 and ended on 03/23/2020.
The second pullback, the current one, started on 02/17/2025 and might conclude around 04/07/2025, potentially paving the way for a new rally.
the angle of those pullbacks is almost identic
This "snapshot" observation suggests we could be nearing a turning point. Of course, this is just a hypothesis based on historical patterns, and I encourage cross-referencing it with other indicators or analyses. What are your thoughts?
Trump Delays Tariffs for 90 Days. The S&P 500 Rebounds SharplyTrump Delays Tariffs for 90 Days. The S&P 500 Rebounds Sharply
As shown in the chart of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), the index is currently trading near the 5,500 level.
This result is highly encouraging, considering that as recently as yesterday morning, the index was hovering around 4,900.
Why Have Stocks Risen?
The strong rebound seen yesterday evening was triggered by a statement from the US President — he announced a 90-day delay in the implementation of wide-ranging global trade tariffs, which had originally been unveiled on 2 April and led to a sharp drop in the index (as indicated by the arrow).
However, this does not apply to China, for which tariffs were not delayed but increased. "Due to the lack of respect China has shown towards global markets, I am raising the tariff imposed on China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately," said Donald Trump, according to media reports.
Overall, US stock markets responded positively to the news, and Goldman Sachs economists have withdrawn their US recession forecasts.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen)
Despite yesterday’s sharp rebound, the stock market remains in a downtrend (as indicated by the red channel).
From a bullish perspective:
→ A Double Bottom pattern (A–B) has formed around the 4,900 level;
→ Price has moved into the upper half of the channel.
From a bearish perspective:
→ Bulls must overcome key resistance near the psychological 5,000 level;
→ While tariffs have been delayed, they have not been cancelled. As such, the risk of an escalating trade war is likely to continue putting pressure on the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) in the coming months.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Island Bottom CONFIRMED on $SPY IF we GAP up tomorrow!Island Bottom CONFIRMED on AMEX:SPY SP:SPX IF we GAP up tomorrow!
I only believe we can GAP up tomorrow if there is news of China coming to the negotiation table with the U.S. after they raise the Reciprocal Tariffs to 104%.
If this doesn't happen, then this isn't confirmed, and we see a retest of $482, IMO!
I'm not playing this as a trade until we get confirmation! Too dangerous!
Not financial advice
SP500: Is This the 2025 Correction? Or Just Another Bounce?Looking at the weekly chart of the S&P 500 with RSI and key support trendlines, it’s clear we’ve entered a historically important level.
🔍 Context:
2020 → COVID Crash, RSI bottomed 💥
2022 → Bear Market, RSI again flagged a major drop 📉
2023 → Healthy correction, price respected trendline support
2025? → RSI flashing oversold, price testing the long-term trendline again.
📊 RSI is approaching the same low levels as the previous two macro shocks — is this a signal of another reversal opportunity? Or could this time be different?
🚨 If we break below this trendline convincingly, it could open the door for a deeper bear leg. But if we hold, we might just see another bounce-back rally like in 2020 and 2022.
📈 Watch for confirmation:
A strong bounce with bullish RSI divergence = potential long
Breakdown + volume spike = more downside ahead
Let’s see if the trendline holds up — it has for 5 years… 👀
#SP500 #Correction #BearMarket #RSI #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketUpdate #2025Outlook #StockMarketIdeas
SPY S&P 500 ETF Potential W-Shaped Recovery Forming We may be witnessing the formation of a W-shaped recovery on the SPY (S&P 500 ETF) – a classic double-bottom structure that often signals a strong reversal after a period of correction or volatility. Let’s dive into the technicals and what this could mean in the sessions ahead.
🔍 The Technical Setup:
SPY recently tested key support around the $485-$500 zone, bouncing off that area twice in the past few weeks. This gives us the left leg of the W and the first bottom. After a modest relief rally to ~$520, we saw another pullback – but this second dip failed to break below the first bottom, a hallmark of the W-pattern.
As of today, SPY is starting to reclaim ground toward the $517-$520 resistance zone. If bulls can push through this neckline area, especially with volume confirmation, we could see a breakout that targets the $530-$535 area in the short term.
🔑 Key Levels to Watch:
Support: $490-$500 (double-bottom support zone)
Neckline/Resistance: $530
Breakout Target: $550 (previous highs)
Invalidation: A break below $490 with volume could invalidate the W-recovery idea and shift bias bearish.
📊 Momentum & Volume:
RSI is climbing back above the 50 level – bullish momentum building.
MACD shows a potential crossover forming, hinting at a shift in trend.
Watch for increasing buy volume as SPY approaches the neckline – that’s where the bulls will need to step up.
🧠 Macro & Earnings Angle:
Don’t forget – we’re entering a heavy earnings season and rate cut expectations are still a wildcard. A dovish tone from the Fed and strong corporate results could be the fuel that sends SPY higher to complete this W-shaped recovery.
🧭 Final Thoughts:
This is a high-probability setup if neckline resistance is broken cleanly. Wait for confirmation before going heavy – fakeouts are common in double-bottom scenarios. If we do get the breakout, we may be looking at a broader market rebound going into summer.
🔔 Set alerts near $525. A confirmed breakout could mean the bulls are back in charge.
WHY EVERYTHING IS GOING DOWN? ANSWER IS HERE!Understanding the Simultaneous Decline in EVERYTHING!
1. The Influence of U.S. Treasury Yields and Interest Rates
The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield is a major benchmark in global finance. When yields rise, it signifies that bonds are becoming more attractive relative to riskier assets. Rising yields typically occur when:
Investor Demand Shifts: Investors move from risky assets (like equities or crypto) to safer, higher-yielding government bonds.
Inflation Expectations: Higher inflation expectations often lead investors to demand higher yields, which in turn increases borrowing costs.
Cause and Effect:
When Treasury yields increase, the opportunity cost of holding lower-yielding assets rises. This makes stocks, precious metals like gold, and speculative assets like cryptocurrencies less attractive. Even gold, typically seen as a safe haven, can lose its charm if fixed-income assets provide competitive returns with significantly lower risk.
2. M2 Money Supply Dynamics
The M2 money supply measures the total liquidity available in the economy, including cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near-money assets. Changes in M2 can impact asset prices in several ways:
Expanding M2: More liquidity in the market initially can boost asset prices. However, if this expansion leads to rising inflation, it may eventually trigger higher interest rates and bond yields.
Contraction or Slowing Growth in M2: A tightening in liquidity can reduce the flow of money into various asset classes. This dampens overall market sentiment and makes riskier assets less attractive.
Cause and Effect:
If M2 growth slows or contracts, there is less capital to chase after higher returns in equities and crypto. At the same time, if there is an expectation of tightening monetary policy, investors recalibrate risk expectations, which leads to a broader sell-off across multiple asset classes.
3. Investor Sentiment and Risk-Off Behavior
In periods where both Treasury yields are rising and the money supply signals less liquidity, the overall investor sentiment often shifts toward a "risk-off" stance. This means:
Safe-Haven Demand: Investors move into safe assets like government bonds, which drives up bond prices and yields while pulling money out of riskier assets such as stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies.
Correlation Effect: As riskier assets are sold off, their prices fall in tandem. Therefore, even if gold typically acts as a counterweight to stocks, in a severe risk-off environment, all asset classes might decline.
Cause and Effect:
With a risk-off sentiment dominating the market, traditional safe havens (like gold) and growth-oriented assets (stocks and crypto) can experience simultaneous declines. Rising yields encourage a rotation away from these riskier positions, which reinforces the downward trend across multiple markets.
4. Historical Context: The Trump Era and Beyond
During the Trump administration, we observed episodes where Treasury bond prices surged significantly (e.g., a 10% surge) as investors sought refuge during periods of political and economic uncertainty. Eventually, as market sentiment shifted, yields rose, and this led to higher borrowing costs. The resulting effect was a broad-based retreat in many asset classes.
Example: In those periods, as yields climbed to around 4%, investor appetite for risk diminished. The market corrected across equities, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies, with all asset classes experiencing pressure concurrently.
Cause and Effect:
In the current climate, if similar dynamics are at work—namely, rising yields accompanied by tightening M2 growth—then we might see a similar pattern: gold, the S&P 500, and crypto all experience declines together because investor risk appetite is sharply reduced.
Conclusion
The simultaneous decline in gold, the S&P 500, and cryptocurrencies can primarily be attributed to rising U.S. Treasury yields and tightening M2 money supply. As yields rise:
The relative attractiveness of low-risk government bonds improves, encouraging a shift in investment away from riskier assets.
Increased yields raise borrowing costs, which in turn dampens economic growth and investor sentiment.
Slowing liquidity (as measured by M2) further restricts the available capital chasing after higher returns.
This confluence of factors leads to a widespread "risk-off" environment where even traditional safe havens like gold may fall as the entire market adjusts to a higher interest rate and lower liquidity backdrop. Investors thus move across asset classes in a coordinated fashion, leading to declines in gold, equities, and crypto alike.
Understanding this cause-and-effect relationship is crucial for professional traders who rely on disciplined strategies. With a clear view of the broader economic signals, you can navigate these shifts with precision—helping you not only to avoid costly mistakes but also to capitalize on high-probability opportunities that emerge during these market transitions.
The S&P 500 Has Officially Entered a Bear MarketThe technical definition is simple:
✅ A decline of 20% or more from recent all-time highs.
That’s exactly where we are.
🔻 The S&P 500 has been free-falling and just hit that 20% mark.
🔴 The index is on pace to close the day deep in red — confirming what many feared:
We are in a bear market.
👀 What does this mean?
Expect continued volatility, emotional markets, and high sensitivity to macroeconomic news.
Historically, bear markets can last from a few months to over a year, depending on policy response and investor sentiment.
While painful, bear markets often plant the seeds of the next bull run 🌱 — but that doesn’t mean we’re there yet.
🧠 Time to zoom out, stay informed, and trade with caution. Capital preservation becomes just as important as returns.
What’s your strategy during bear markets? Averaging down? Hedging? Sitting in cash?
#SP500 #BearMarket #StockMarketCrash #TradingStrategy #MarketUpdate #InvestSmart
Is This a Bear Market or a Golden Opportunity?The indices have plummeted sharply, and whether you believe this is due to Trump’s tariffs or would have happened anyway, regardless of the trigger, the reality remains the same.
Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are officially in bear market territory— defined by a decline of more than 20% from their peaks . Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down approximately 15%.
Given these facts, the big question is: Are we in a bear market, or is this a fantastic buying opportunity? 📉📈
Now, let's break down the key levels, potential scenarios, and how to approach the current market environment. 🚀
Dow Jones 30 (DJI): Navigating Key Support and Resistance Levels
On the weekly chart, DJI has been in an uptrend since the pandemic lows of 2020. The double top formation from 45k measured target has already been exceeded, and the index is now approaching a critical confluence support zone between 37k and 37,700.
📌 My Outlook:
• I believe this support will hold in the near future, presenting a buying opportunity.
• Resistances: 40k and 41,600 are important technical levels and potential targets for bulls.
💡 Alternative Scenario:
• If DJI starts rising without testing the long-term confluence support, I will focus on selling opportunities, particularly around the 41,500 zone, as we have 2 unfilled gaps from last week.
________________________________________
S&P 500 (SPX): Bear Market Territory, But Still Holding Uptrend (posted main chart)
According to classical theory, SPX is now officially in bear market territory. However, we are still above the ascending trend line established from the 2020 pandemic low, and approaching a confluence support zone around 4,820 - 4,900.
📌 My Outlook:
• I will be looking for buying opportunities if the index continues its decline towards the 4,820 - 4,900 zone next week.
• Target: Filling the first gap at 5,400.
💡 Alternative Scenario:
• If the week begins positively, and SPX doesn’t reach the 4,900 support zone, I will focus on shorting opportunities on gap filling, aiming for a return to 5,000.
________________________________________
Nasdaq 100 (Nas100): Hovering Above Key Support
Unlike DJI and SPX, Nas100 is still well above the ascending trend line from the 2020 pandemic low. However, it is nearing an important horizontal support defined by the 2021 ATH and the 2024 lows.
📌 My Outlook:
• Drops towards 17k or slightly lower could present good buying opportunities, anticipating a potential rise to fill the gaps.
💡 Alternative Scenario:
• If the price rises above 18.500k zone without dipping under 17k I will look for selling opportunities.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
SP500- Don't be fooled by yesterday's pumpThe markets reacted strongly to Jerome Powell's latest commentary, sparking a notable rally. However, traders should be cautious before assuming this marks the beginning of a new uptrend. While there has been a slight shift in market structure, the broader trend remains intact. Overlooking the strength of the next resistance level could prove to be a costly mistake.
The Big Picture: S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis
Examining the TRADENATION:US500 posted daily chart, the key question is: has the trend truly reversed? While a green-bodied candle signals some bullish momentum, SP500 remains below critical resistance levels. Notably, it closed beneath what I call the "Do or Die" zone—an area that aligns with prior lows and, more importantly, the daily 200 SMA. This suggests that what we’re seeing could be a lower high forming within the broader downtrend.
Hourly Outlook:
On the hourly chart, we see a strong reversal from 5500, but the move appears corrective rather than impulsive. It seems to be forming an ABC-style correction, with the market currently in wave C. Calculating the potential top of wave C, we find it aligns perfectly with a key resistance level and the 200-day SMA.
Conclusion:
While we may see some upside heading into the end of the week, I believe this rally will be short-lived. Once SP retests the broken support—now acting as resistance—I expect the downward trend to resume, with my target remaining at 5200 (as previously discussed).
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
SP500 Plunges 8% in a day!! Oversold or more pain ahead?The SP500 has suffered a massive 8% drop, currently trading around 5158 at the moment, after market turmoil triggered by Trump's new tariff war. Panic selling has pushed the 30-minute RSIto an extreme oversold level of around 28, signaling potential short-term exhaustion.
Possible Scenarios:
🔹 Short-Term Bounce? The RSI suggests a possible technical rebound, with key resistance around 5200-5250 if buyers step in. Watch for volume confirmation.
🔹 Further Downside? If panic continues, the next major support lies at 5100, followed by 5000 psychological level, where institutional buyers might defend price.
⚠️ Caution: Markets remain highly volatile! A dead-cat bounce is possible, but uncertainty surrounding tariffs could fuel more downside pressure. Stay sharp!
📊 What’s Your Take? Will SP500 recover or break lower? Drop your thoughts below! 🚀🔥
#SP500 #StockMarketCrash #Tariffs #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #RSI
Are These the Three Black Crows Signaling More Pain Ahead? The S&P 500 has just printed three consecutive long-bodied red candles following a brief uptrend. This classic "Three Black Crows" formation could be a powerful bearish reversal signal—one that historically hints at a deeper correction on the horizon.
📊 What does this pattern mean?
Appears after an uptrend or rally.
Consists of 3 bearish candles closing near their lows.
Suggests strong seller control and trend reversal potential.
🔍 Current context:
The S&P is already under heavy pressure from macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns.
This pattern adds further bearish sentiment, especially if we see continued follow-through on volume.
🚨 If confirmed, we could be looking at the continuation of a larger downtrend. But remember: confirmation is key. Watch closely how price reacts in the next 1–2 sessions.
🧠 Do you see this as a real warning—or just a pause before the next leg up?
#SP500 #ThreeBlackCrows #CandlestickPatterns #BearishSignal #TechnicalAnalysis
Let's cover the action of some instruments as we get the NFPLet's see what's happening with the market as we get the NFP number live.
Let's dig in!
MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX
TVC:DXY
TVC:GOLD
FRED:SP500
FX_IDC:EURUSD
MARKETSCOM:EURUSD
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
Bullish Divergence and the Impact of Trump’s TariffsOn the daily chart of the S&P 500, I’m currently spotting a clear bullish divergence. This type of divergence is a technical pattern that suggests that, despite recent price drops, the downtrend is losing momentum and a potential upward move could be on the horizon. It shows that the index has underlying strength, which the price hasn’t fully reflected yet — making a bullish reversal very likely in the short to mid-term.
In this context, the recent drop in the S&P 500 has been largely driven by Donald Trump’s tariff announcements, especially targeting China and other countries. However, based on my analysis, I believe that these tariffs were more of a negotiation tactic than a long-term economic strategy. And now that things are clearly not going as expected, I’m convinced that Trump will be forced to scale back the tariffs or start accepting less favorable trade agreements just to stop the bleeding — because I highly doubt he will allow this sharp market decline to continue unchecked.
Why tariffs aren’t coherent or beneficial for the global economy
Tariffs are additional taxes on imports. Although they’re often marketed as a way to protect local industries, in reality, they increase prices for consumers and destabilize global supply chains. The result is damaging for both the countries imposing the tariffs and those receiving them. In the case of the U.S., despite Trump’s promises, these tariffs are actually hurting American companies that rely on imported materials and products, leading to higher internal costs and squeezing consumers.
Worse yet, this ongoing trade war has created a climate of global economic uncertainty, which is driving down investment and confidence. That uncertainty has translated into market selloffs around the world, and the S&P 500’s current decline is a direct reflection of that. Importantly, it’s U.S. businesses — not foreign governments — who are absorbing the cost of these tariffs.
What to expect going forward
Despite the pressure from tariffs, I believe that Trump — seeing the damage already being done to the markets — will have no choice but to start dialing things back. My take is that to avoid a deeper economic hit and restore investor confidence, the U.S. will likely pursue more balanced deals, even if it means compromising a bit.
If this scenario plays out, I expect the S&P 500 to begin recovering, especially as investor uncertainty fades. The bullish divergence on the chart further reinforces the idea that once these external political and economic pressures ease, the market could see a strong and sharp rebound.
Conclusion
Trump’s tariffs were intended as leverage — but they’re clearly backfiring and doing more harm than good. The current S&P 500 correction, in my opinion, is actually a buying opportunity for those with a long-term view. With potential tariff reductions and fairer trade deals on the horizon, the market is likely to rebound strongly, especially with the bullish divergence we’re seeing on the charts.
Markets may have already priced in the worst, and now we’re seeing the first technical signals of a potential turnaround. If confirmed, the price could begin to rally significantly in the coming days or weeks.
S&P500: Persistent SupportThe S&P 500 continued its recovery following its reaction to the support at 5509 points. However, in our primary scenario, we expect the index to fall below this mark to ultimately complete wave in green within our color-matched Target Zone (coordinates: 4988 points – 4763 points). Within this range, there are entry opportunities for long positions, which could be hedged with a stop 1% below the Zone’s lower boundary. Once the corrective movement has reached its low, the final upward movement of the green wave structure should commence. In the process, the index should gain significantly and reach the high of wave above the resistance at 6166 points. If this mark is surpassed prematurely, our alternative scenario with a 30% probability will come into play.
VISA:Respecting the 61.8% Fibonacci Level and Going for New HighWho doesn't know VISA? Almost everyone has or has had a VISA card. VISA stock has an unbeatable bullish outlook, which, like all stocks on the stock market, has retraced its rise.
---> What is its current situation?
If we look at the chart, its appearance is CLEARLY BULLISH (Bull), having gone through a retracement phase. The retracement it has made is EXACTLY THE 61.8% Fibonacci, AND IT HAS RESPECTED IT. Since reaching that retracement on March 14, the price has not stopped rising. It is currently BREAKING KEY ZONES to initiate an attack on NEW HIGHS IN VALUE. If it surpasses the 352 zone, it will go directly to the highs, and will most likely break them to explore new prices for the stock.
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Strategy to follow:
ENTRY: We will open two long positions if the H4 candle closes above 352.
POSITION 1 (TP1): We close the first position in the 366 zone (+4%) (highs zone).
--> Stop Loss at 336 (-4.2%).
POSITION 2 (TP2): We open a Trailing Stop position.
--> Initial trailing stop loss at (-4.2%) (coinciding with the 336 level of position 1).
--> We modify the trailing stop loss to (-1%) when the price reaches TP1 (366).
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SET UP EXPLANATIONS
*** How do I know which two long positions to open? Let's take an example: If we want to invest €2,000 in the stock, we divide that amount by 2, and instead of opening one position of €2,000, we'll open two positions of €1,000 each.
*** What is a Trailing Stop? A Trailing Stop allows a trade to continue gaining value when the market price moves in a favorable direction, but it automatically closes the trade if the market price suddenly moves in an unfavorable direction by a specified distance. This specified distance is the trailing Stop Loss.
--> Example: If the trailing Stop Loss is at -1%, it means that if the price drops by -1%, the position will be closed. If the price rises, the Stop Loss also rises to maintain that -1% during increases. Therefore, the risk decreases until the position enters a profit. This way, you can take advantage of very strong and stable price trends, maximizing profits.
