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Trading Plans for THU. 08/17 - Key Support Level Being TestedS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 08/17 Our trading plans published on Monday, 08/14, stated: "The level of 4495-4505 is now the immediate key level for both Support and Resistance. 4445-4452 is the next support level, a daily close below which will turn our models cautiously bearish". Yesterday, this level was breached. We also wrote in that trading plan: "This support level is being approached as of this morning. Any sustained breach of this support could open 4400 level as the next support level". The index is approaching the 4400 level this morning. If it breaks down, then 4385 will be the next support. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4438, 4430, 4420, 4407, 4402, or 4383 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4435, 4417, 4398, 4390, or 4380 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4427 or 4405, and explicit short exits on a break above 4392. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:30am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #cpi, #ppi, #fitch, #fomcminutes
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
If wave 4 ended the bottom looks likeIF Minute wave 4 ended basically at the open today, here is the next move lower. Minor 3 historical levels appear to coincide with Minute wave 5 endpoints. It looks like a solid bottom could be established today before the close. Looking at the low below 4380. There is still a chance Minute wave 4 will move up, however, the extension levels for Minute wave 5 will not change. The only thing to change in this instance would be duration for Minute wave 5. Minute wave 4 was capable of lasting 2-4 hours and at present is a single hour (or more like 10 minutes). Minute wave 5 is expected to last 2-6 hours currently based on the premise Minute wave 4 remains at 1 hour. The currently low between 1030-1044 eastern time today could be the end of wave B inside of Minute wave 4. If this is true, the index should climb above 4421 within the next 2 hours. A drop below 4400 likely invalidates this Minute wave 4 continuance theory and should open the door for 4380 today. Tomorrow will likely begin a movement upward which may top out early next week.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
Start up to go down on Thursday?IF Minute wave 3 (green) ended today, tomorrow could see an early morning high around 4433 before moving into more declines later. 15 and 30 minute chart triggered wave 3 of 3 and macro wave 3 signals seen here: The first signal was probable Minuette wave 3 inside of Minute wave 3. The second signal was likely the end of near the end of Minute wave 3. This would imply Minute wave 4 retracement up is next. Historical models point to Minute wave 4 likely lasting 2-4 hours which points to upward movement at the beginning of tomorrow. Minute wave 5 downward should begin after the peak and likely lead to a low beneath 4390 and possibly 4370 before the end of the week. Friday is a "nothing burger" for economic reports which could see the market end the week beginning to drift higher depending when the low below 4390 is achieved. Next week could see an early high before another low below 4350 is achieved.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Sentiment Index UpdateToday I shared a video in my trading room of Tom Lee on CNBC post his CPI massive rally call which didn't materialize. One member pointed out: " Lol. The man in this interview is not “fearless.” He is having trouble getting it out, and he has concerns. He is impressed by the “pronunciation” of this move. " I share the sentiment chart so we can observe the mental psyche of both sides (Bulls and Bears) and how it never changes and just repeats. This sentiment causes buyers and sellers to vote each day through the buys and sells they execute...how they vote, provides us a visual pattern. This pattern is much more forecastable than the internal fundamentals. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
2
FOMC Meeting Minutes - Still Relevant to Push the Markets Up?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 08/16 Our trading plans published on Monday, 08/14, stated: "The level of 4495-4505 is now the immediate key level for both Support and Resistance. 4445-4452 is the next support level, a daily close below which will turn our models cautiously bearish". This support level is tested on the index as of this morning. Any sustained breach of this support could open 4400 level as the next support level; any rebound will face 4470-4480 as the next resistance level. The FOMC minutes to be released this afternoon may not really have any oomph factor left for any upside moves, but could potentially push the markets lower if surprising on the negative side (more hawkish than markets are hoping/expecting). Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4481, 4467, 4433, or 4402 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4478, 4470, 4448, 4443, 4430, 4419, or 4398 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate no explicit exits for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 12:31pm EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #cpi, #ppi, #fitch, #fomcminutes
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Steep Dive Ahead?Here is the path if Intermediate wave 3 began after the first hour of trading on August 10. Not only are we possible in the early stages of Minor wave 3 which should see drastic movements, we are nearly in Minute wave 3 of Minor wave 3 which should see a large drop. A midday drop is less likely so this could really be felt with a gap down on Wednesday. Intermediate wave 3 is slated to last 30 to 65 hours which would place the end into later next week. Potential bottoms for Minor wave 3 are on the left and levels for Intermediate wave 3 are on the right. All levels are based on historical data and specific wave nomenclature. A strong amount of models are looking for Minor wave 3 to end below 4400 within the next 2 days, while Intermediate wave 3 is slated to go below 4350 before next Friday. We shall see if this theory plays out as the other ones are almost completely ruled out at this point.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
If its this path tomorrow will see a new...Right now, Intermediate 2 and therefore the Minor wave C track seem plausible. This is what tomorrow and possibly Wednesday could look like. Intermediate wave 2 was initially projected by secondary models to come in at 32 hours which is half the length of Intermediate wave 1. Minor wave C is projected to last between 16-24 hours which is the size of the green box, however, most models agree on 17 hours. The levels for Minor wave C are on the left. The levels for Minute wave 3 are in the center and the likely starting position for tomorrow and the Intermediate wave 2 levels remain to the right. Minute wave 3 could see a gap up at the open toward 4510, a slight retracement for Minute wave 4 (maybe back to 4499) and then the final rise for Minute wave 5 will likely occur between 4528 – 4544 tomorrow or early Wednesday ending in the green box. If this plays out, I will begin the projections for Intermediate wave 3 down.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
2
Trading Plans for TUE.08/15 Back to the Basics, and the Reality?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 08/15 Our trading plans published yesterday stated: "The level of 4495-4505 is now the immediate key level for both Support and Resistance. 4445-4452 is the next support level, a daily close below which will turn our models cautiously bearish". This support level is tested on the index as of this morning. Any sustained breach of this support could open 4400 level as the next support level; any rebound will face 4470-4480 as the next resistance level. With the Fed's interest rate policy, inflation, and the earnings almost in the rear view mirror, markets might be going back to the basics this week in search of a direction. Our trading plans published on Thu., 08/10 stated: "Our models continue to indicate choppy markets until this resolves in either direction, notwithstanding this morning's push up following the rising-not-so-fast inflation numbers". The risk is to the downside rather than the upside. Bulls should be wary of any bounces up and use that opportunity to take some money off the table. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4492, 4483, 4458, or 4452 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4478, 4470, 4455, or 4447  with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate no explicit exits for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:46am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #cpi, #ppi, #fitch
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
SP500 BULLISHMarket Structure: SP500 is in an uptrend making higher highs and higher lows and approaching a key level (support, uptrend line, swing low) and there is likely an accumulation of sell orders which are made up of breakout traders and stop losses of long positions. This accumulation of orders creates enough liquidity for the market to match orders at this low point before positioning to go higher. Trade: Wait for price to close below the swing low point and enter long on a buy stop @ 4378.60
PEPPERSTONE:US500Long
by Mankz
$SPX500USD US500 Continue to Build Upward PressureOANDA:SPX500USD We will have choppy times ahead. Target 4600 Above 4600 Vey Low Volume The sentiment is positive 4060 is support Technically Higher Highs Lower Lows We are slowly leaving the current ange The ranges are increasing The S&P 500 has rallied rather significantly during the course of the week to break above the 4200 level, showing signs of extreme strength. At this point, the market looks as if it is going to threaten the 4300 level above, an area that has previously been resistance. We have seen a lot of noise over the last several months, but the resiliency of the market is something that you have to pay attention to. As long as the market stays this resilient, it will be difficult to short anytime soon. The candlestick seems as if it is trying to tell us that the market has made up its mind finally, and that it decided that it’s going higher. If we can break above the 4300 level, then this becomes more of a “buy-and-hold” situation, but you can see that the gains have been hard won. With that, I think you get a situation where you are probably better off looking for short-term dips that you can take advantage of, as they offer value in what is becoming a very aggressive uptrend. That being said, if we were to turn around a break down below the 50-Week EMA could send the market lower, perhaps back down to the 4000 level, and even down to the 200-Week EMA which is currently near the 3770 level. However, it’s probably worth noting that momentum is definitely not on your side if you are going to take this position, and therefore you are probably better off looking for a move to the upside but expecting a lot of volatility. Keep in mind that the S&P 500 is not equally weighted, so it’s just a handful of stocks that make the difference.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by DaveBrascoFX
4
Trading Plans for MON. 08/14 - Back To The Basics?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 08/14 With the Fed's interest rate policy, inflation, and the earnings almost in the rear view mirror, markets might be going back to the basics this week in search of a direction. Our trading plans published on Thu., 08/10 stated: "Our models continue to indicate choppy markets until this resolves in either direction, notwithstanding this morning's push up following the rising-not-so-fast inflation numbers". Last week's PPI numbers have validated why we didn't give too much weight to the CPI numbers and the markets' bounce following that. Currently, there doesn't appear to be any specific factor driving the markets in any direction, leading to choppy markets to continue. The level of 4495-4505 is now the immediate key level for both Support and Resistance. 4445-4452 is the next support level, a daily close below which will turn our models cautiously bearish. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4492, 4483, 4474, 4466, or 4452 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4478, 4470, 4455, or 4446  with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4462, and explicit short exits on a break above 4458. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:31am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #cpi, #ppi
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Innovation boosts P/E ratios - P/E ration evolvesTechnological Innovation is Compounding Technological progress has huge impact on the P/E ratios of companies and the S&P 500. Technologically advanced companies naturally have a higher P/E as it's expected from them to have better future earnings. One of the ways better future earnings happen is through efficiency leaps. These efficiency leaps are important to businesses' margins but it all comes down to: better tech = more efficiency = lower costs = higher earnings = higher P/E These innovation cycles bring efficiency leaps that are linked to P/E ratio waves. We can observe in this chart that the P/E ratio has cycles that coincide with innovation cycles. There were, of course, macroeconomic factors and wars that impacted the P/E, but high P/E can be explained by innovation cycles. We can also see that each innovation cycle will have higher P/E ratios than the previous. By looking at this chart, it feels that the P/E ratios still have room to grow.
SP:SPXLong
by HenriqueCentieiro
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 08/11 Our trading plans published yesterday stated: "Our models continue to indicate choppy markets until this resolves in either direction, notwithstanding this morning's push up following the rising-not-so-fast inflation numbers". Today's PPI numbers have validated why we didn't give too much weight to yesterday morning's CPI numbers and the markets' bounce following that. Currently, there doesn't appear to be any specific factor driving the markets in any direction, leading to choppy markets to continue. The level of 4495-4505 is now the immediate key level for both Support and Resistance. 4445-4452 is the next support level, a daily close below which will turn our models cautiously bearish. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4501, 4492, 4481, or 4452 with a 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4498, 4478, 4461, or 4447  with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4488, and explicit short exits on a break above 4465. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:36am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #cpi, #ppi
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Moved too quick, is moving too quick or in wrong spotBest case--market is up tomorrow, however the high will be the highest high experienced for the next few years. See why below. Moved too quick? There is a possible chance Intermediate wave 2 completed today at the high within the first hour of trading. The forecast zone for ending price was 4519-4536 with a median historical target based on the most relational 2C12 wave ending at 4525.03. The slightly broader median data target for C12 waves was 4536.93, while the broadest dataset for 12 waves was 4528.65. Today’s top was 4527.37. If Intermediate wave 2 ended at this top, wave 2 would have lasted a whole 5 hours AFTER Intermediate wave 1 was 65 hours. Intermediate wave 2 would have lasted 7.69% the length of wave 1. Historical waves ending in 2C12 have made it at least 14.29% the length of the preceding wave 1. Wave 2’s ending in C12 have recorded lengths that are 7.5 and 7.69% of preceding wave 1. This is the first possibility to consider. If this scenario is true, downward movement should continue tomorrow. Moving too quick? Most models predicted at least 19 hours for the length of Intermediate wave 2. Second most agreement was 65 hours (length of wave 1), third was 32 hours and fourth was 22 hours. If the high recorded today was the end of Minor wave A AND today’s low afterward was Minor wave B, Minor wave C will be a long, slow climb or best-case end tomorrow and requiring another 70 point gain in one day (not impossible as of late). The main concerns supporting this thesis is today’s low dropped beneath the starting point of what would have to be Minor wave A. Corrective waves are the only waves in which wave B can surpass the starting point of the preceding wave which is what happened when today’s low dropped to 4577.92 which was a 105% retracement of Minor wave A’s movement. On a brighter note, Minor wave A was originally forecasted to end around 4525 IF all of Intermediate wave 2 were to sustain a top near 4532. Minor wave B was temporarily placed in a conservative position 40 points beneath A. IF the index remains in Intermediate wave 2, it is likely in Minor wave C up. There is no expectation or requirement for duration and the top can occur anywhere near the top of A, to include falling short of it. This scenario will hold true if the market is up tomorrow. A further drop below 4457.92 invalidates this theory. In the wrong spot? There are 3 clear waves moving upward for the currently marked Minor wave A at 4527.37 from today and 5 waves down for the currently marked Minor wave B (which can are most visible on a smaller timeframe chart). Minor wave A should have 5 waves in it and wave B should have 3. The alternative is that the currently marked Minor wave A up is either Intermediate wave 2 being fully completed, or some sort of wave 2 or wave 4 action from another macro wave set which would mean we are clearly in the wrong place. The Intermediate wave 2 scenario is a possibility, and the 5 waves afterward moving down could then be the first wave 1 down inside of Intermediate wave 3. This would mean the waves have sped up almost to an unrealistic, but possible pace. This is most likely NOT Minute wave 4 from Minor wave 5 back in Intermediate wave 1 because would be called Minute wave 4 has surpassed the ending point of what was marked as Minute wave 2. A new and sustained low below 4450 tomorrow could prove this scenario true. I have received wave 3 of wave 3 indicators all of the previously mentioned and plotted locations which is part of my bias believing the chart above is marked accurately. However, even with 3 of 3 indicators in the correct position, another wave could have sped up or slowed down which could push us further ahead than charted. The original Intermediate wave 2 forecast levels remain on the right side of the chart. If Minor wave C continues with upward movement tomorrow, the historical levels based on the currently placed Minor waves A & B are on the left. Minor wave C is not expected to move much higher than 4527.37 (the high from Minor wave A). Based on historical waves ending in C12C (light blue levels), the first quartile movement extension is 110.40%, the median is 126.14%, and the third quartile is 126.49%. This is not a typo. A large chunk of the data has had the top between 115-127%. This would be 4544 at the highest which is in line with the original Intermediate wave 2 projection at 4541.90. Models project Minor wave C to last 4-5 trading hours which would place the top toward the end of the trading day tomorrow (Friday August 11). All historical Minor wave C have travelled at least 105% of wave A’s movement placing a probable floor around 4530 (Minor wave C should end above 4530 per this data point). Based on waves ending in 12C (yellow levels), quartiles are 110.54%, 126.49%, and 172.42%. Models once again agree on 4-5 hours, with an outside chance at 8 hours long. Based on the broadest dataset of waves ending in 2C (white lines), the quartiles are 116.55%, 138.4%, and 180.25%. Duration still holds firm at 4-5 hours with outside chance at 8. Bottom-line is tomorrow could continue the whipsaw up and back down, up into the weekend, or just outright down. Intermediate wave 2 from a duration standpoint will not likely end on late Monday or early Tuesday as originally projected. The level for the top and end of Intermediate wave 2 still looks valid. I have re-adjusted the target box for the new projected zone IF we are still in Intermediate wave 2 and the market moves up tomorrow.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
5
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 08/10S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 08/10 With the Fed and Interest Rates not burning issues anymore (at least for now), with major earnings mostly in the rear view mirror, markets are struggling to find a direction and a relevant factor to latch onto. Currently, there doesn't appear to be any specific factor driving the markets in any direction, leading to listless markets. Our models continue to indicate choppy markets until this resolves in either direction, notwithstanding this morning's push up following the rising-not-so-fast inflation numbers. The level of 4495-4505 is now the immediate key level for both Support and Resistance. 4525-4535 is the resistance level, a daily close above which will turn our models cautiously bullish. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4492, 4502, 4516, or 4525 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4520, 4513, 4486, or 4472  with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4497, and explicit short exits on a break above 4477. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:31am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. Positional Trading Plans: We are decommissioning our Positional Trading plans today, in order to launch them in a separate mode down the road. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Wave 3 Already?The selloff at the end of the day is exactly what was needed to maintain the projected top of Minor wave A. However, it is possible Minute waves 1 and 2 have now completed. This means Minute wave 3 could take the market up above 4515 tomorrow before cooling off into Minute wave 4. Minor wave A and Minute wave 5 end points have been updated based on the close and are a little higher than the initial projections assuming Minute wave 3 is tomorrow and sees the index climb above 4510-4520. The other major update is the final endpoint for Intermediate wave 2 up appears to fall no later than the end of trading hours on Tuesday. We will see how the trade goes tomorrow and possibly issue an updated forecast tomorrow night. The likely Minute wave 3 movement extension levels are on the left and should be finished tomorrow. The retracement levels for Intermediate wave 2 are on the right. Light blue levels are based on most specific historical waves to the wave being studied. Yellow levels are slightly less specific historical data, and white levels are based on the broadest data. This should be the trade assuming the CPI report is viewed as a positive report (even though the data is almost old news at this point and not accounting for the recent significant rise in fuel prices).
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
3
Generally Up Until TuesdayWith Intermediate wave 1 likely in the books, I have projected the top for Intermediate wave 2. It won't be as high as originally thought. Minor wave A could end tomorrow or Friday and wave B could end Friday or Monday. The end looks like maybe Tuesday based on historical data. Intermediate wave 1 ended about an hour late today but the market roared after the bottom per analysis: The move up this afternoon almost ran the whole length of Minor wave A's expectation so a cool off today may continue to provide room for gains tomorrow. The inflation read still appears to be a catalyst for gains, but maybe 20-30 points early on Thursday is not a significant jump or confidence in the reported numbers which the pundits may add the context of fuel prices having gone up after the end of July. This realization should led the market down into Minor wave B temporarily and then some sort of short rally should occur Monday/Tuesday. The next drop should be another 150-300 pointer. The projected bottom for this first Primary wave 1 down right now is early October, however, based on the ending point of Intermediate wave 1, it is possible the bottom is October remains above 4050 AND the final market low toward the end of 2024 could remain above 3100 based on the analysis here:
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
Markets Searching for a Direction - Day 2S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 08/09 With the Fed and Interest Rates not burning issues anymore (at least for now), with major earnings mostly in the rear view mirror, markets are struggling to find a direction and a relevant factor to latch onto. Currently, there doesn't appear to be any specific factor driving the markets in any direction, leading to listless markets. Our models continue to indicate choppy markets until this resolves in either direction. The level of 4480-4490 is now the main support level, with 4500 the immediate key level for both Support and Resistance. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate the same trading plans as yesterday: i.e., going long on a break above 4486, 4491, 4502, 4507 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4475, 4483, or 4497  with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4505, and explicit short exits on a break above 4465. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:01am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. Positional Trading Plans: For today, positional models indicate staying flat. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #debtdowngrade, #usdowngrade, #usdebtdowngrade, #usdebtrating
CBOE:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Start Low, Run High On WednesdayLooks like the bottom is on track for early tomorrow Minute wave 5 should end tomorrow morning simultaneously ending Minor wave 5 and Intermediate wave 1 inside of Primary wave 1 of Cycle wave C. Minute wave 1 was only 3 hours long, and Minute wave 3 was only 2 hours long. This would mean Minute wave 5 should be 2 hours or less in duration. The quickest way to the bottom in only 2 hours is another gap down at the open. Right now, the models are not projecting a drastic bottom and they pretty much align with the initial projection for Minor wave 5 the other day which can be seen here where strongest model agreement had Minor wave 5 ending within the first hour of trading tomorrow: The originally forecast bottoms for Minor wave 5 are in the center of the chart above and the newest levels projecting the end of Minute wave 5 are toward the left. The light blue levels for each are based on the most specific dataset relationally consistent with the current wave. The yellow levels are slightly less specific and the white levels are the broader of the datasets. The pink levels (only one is visible and it is on the left at a 98.88% retracement) are specific to waves which are Minute wave 5 in Minor wave 5, in Intermediate wave 1, inside Primary wave 1. This particular level indicates there have been occasions where wave 5 ends prior to go beneath wave 3’s bottom which is a significant possibility here. The models strongly favor wave 5 ending within the first hour of trading but should only last 2 hours at most. My forecast would be a gap down to open with the bottom between 4450-4462. Intermediate wave 2 should begin after this point and lead the market upward for the rest of the day. I will crunch the data tomorrow once Intermediate wave 1 is confirmed to have ended, but Intermediate wave 2 will now retrace the drop performed by Intermediate wave 1. Intermediate wave 2 levels are temporarily plotted and could see the market reach a peak between 4530-4560 by sometime early to the middle of next week. Intermediate wave 2 does not require a large boost and if it really takes 4-6 days to climb less than 100 points it could mean minimal gains over the coming days. The inflation report could also cause a large gain at first which would be wave A up inside of Intermediate 2. The reality of the data being delayed and folks considering the rising fuel costs could bring the market down again in the wave B down portion of Intermediate wave 2 and the final wave C leg up could get us to the target top. The CPI number on Thursday will likely assist in boosting the market up, however, the inflation data is for July and fuel prices have gone up significantly since the end of July which is not likely factored into the CPI number or the prices of goods moving forward. I figure the rising fuel costs alone will add to the downfall that is in the making again. The rise in the price of goods likely will not hit the inflation numbers for at least another month.
CBOE:SPX
by StockSignaler
3
Start Low, Run High On WednesdayLooks like the bottom is on track for early tomorrow Minute wave 5 should end tomorrow morning simultaneously ending Minor wave 5 and Intermediate wave 1 inside of Primary wave 1 of Cycle wave C. Minute wave 1 was only 3 hours long, and Minute wave 3 was only 2 hours long. This would mean Minute wave 5 should be 2 hours or less in duration. The quickest way to the bottom in only 2 hours is another gap down at the open. Right now, the models are not projecting a drastic bottom and they pretty much align with the initial projection for Minor wave 5 the other day which can be seen here where strongest model agreement had Minor wave 5 ending within the first hour of trading tomorrow: The originally forecast bottoms for Minor wave 5 are in the center of the chart above and the newest levels projecting the end of Minute wave 5 are toward the left. The light blue levels for each are based on the most specific dataset relationally consistent with the current wave. The yellow levels are slightly less specific and the white levels are the broader of the datasets. The pink levels (only one is visible and it is on the left at a 98.88% retracement) are specific to waves which are Minute wave 5 in Minor wave 5, in Intermediate wave 1, inside Primary wave 1. This particular level indicates there have been occasions where wave 5 ends prior to go beneath wave 3’s bottom which is a significant possibility here. The models strongly favor wave 5 ending within the first hour of trading but should only last 2 hours at most. My forecast would be a gap down to open with the bottom between 4450-4462. Intermediate wave 2 should begin after this point and lead the market upward for the rest of the day. I will crunch the data tomorrow once Intermediate wave 1 is confirmed to have ended, but Intermediate wave 2 will now retrace the drop performed by Intermediate wave 1. Intermediate wave 2 levels are temporarily plotted and could see the market reach a peak between 4530-4560 by sometime early to the middle of next week. Intermediate wave 2 does not require a large boost and if it really takes 4-6 days to climb less than 100 points it could mean minimal gains over the coming days. The inflation report could also cause a large gain at first which would be wave A up inside of Intermediate 2. The reality of the data being delayed and folks considering the rising fuel costs could bring the market down again in the wave B down portion of Intermediate wave 2 and the final wave C leg up could get us to the target top. The CPI number on Thursday will likely assist in boosting the market up, however, the inflation data is for July and fuel prices have gone up significantly since the end of July which is not likely factored into the CPI number or the prices of goods moving forward. I figure the rising fuel costs alone will add to the downfall that is in the making again. The rise in the price of goods likely will not hit the inflation numbers for at least another month.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler