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Powell Trying to Tame the Runaway Bull?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 06/21 In our trading plans for Fri. 06/16, we wrote: "The spectacular bull run of the last few weeks fueled by speculation around the Fed policies and, possibly, an epic short squeeze, could be consolidating in the week ahead". This has played out as anticipated with yesterday's consolidation. It appears gaining traction with Powell's comments about inflation and interest rates this morning. The potential bull trap cautioned about by our models continues to be in play, while the markets seem to be calling the bluff of Powell's hawkish posturing in last Thursday's "hawkish pause" presser. Nevertheless, bears should be cautious of not jumping the gun but wait for confirmation before initiating any shorts. It is a bull market until it is broken - currently, this bull run is not broken. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate no positional trading plans for today, as they are wary of a potential bull trap ahead, while also cautious about continued short squeezes off of any fresh shorts drawn in by the prints higher in the "new bull market". By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4390, 4379, 4368, or 4357 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4385, 4376, 4364, or 4354 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate no explicit exits for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:16am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #softlanding, #hawkishpause, #pause
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
3
Bottom targets if moving downBased on the theory the market has topped, the following is what we should roughly see next. There is still a chance Cycle B is not completed and I will outline what that could look like later this week or next. A few of those theories have us in only Intermediate wave 3 of Primary wave C of Cycle wave B up with the next possible market top around 4631. However, Intermediate wave 4 would bottom no lower than 4387, which it did on June 20th. Another theory for a long and drawn up Supercycle wave 2 would put the market in Intermediate wave 2 up in the early stages of Primary wave A down. This would be the case if Supercycle wave 2 were to trickle downward for 5+ years. For now we will stick with the beginning of Cycle wave C down. Position: Submillennial wave 1, Grand Supercycle 5, Supercycle 2, Cycle C, Primary A Heading: Downward Shorthand wave reference: 152CA. Cycle was C will also end Supercycle wave 2 so we will forecast what wave 2 could do based on the completion of Supercycle wave 1 and the relational history of waves ending in 152. I have Supercycle wave 1 beginning in March 2009 and ending January 2022. This saw the market gain 4,151.83 points over 3,252 trading days for a rise over run of 1.277. Based on these figures and waves ending in 152, Supercycle wave 2 could retrace the total points at the following quartile levels (light blue lines in the chart below). The first quartile of all movement would be at 25.37%, the median movement of all historical data is 45.71%, while the third quartile of historical retracements is at 75.67%. Based on the same wave data, the most model agreement is in Supercycle wave 2 lasting 1,626 trading days. Second most model agreement is on 4,878 trading days, while third is a large tie at 469, 813, 929, 976, 1,084, and 1,158 trading days. Based on a broader dataset for waves ending in 52, the movement quartiles (yellow levels below) are 33.43%, 50.17%, & 68.96%. The models agree the most on a length of 1,626 trading days in length, second is 3,252, third is 813, fourth is 1,084, fifth is a tie at 542, 765, 929, & 1,445. A general point of reference for those dates is: 469: November 15, 2023 765: January 20, 2025 813: March 27, 2025 929: September 1, 2025 976: November 10, 2025 1084: April 6, 2026 1158: July 20, 2026 1626: May 8, 2028 4878: October 1, 2040 On very rare occasions, a macro wave 2 exceeds the length of the preceding wave 1. This would likely take anything over 3,252 days off the table. Macro second waves tend to retrace between 38.6%-57.43% of the prior wave 1’s movement. This would place the bottom between 2434.22-3216.01. Here is the chart solely based on Supercycle wave 1’s data: My initial forecast would place the market bottom around 2740 by mid-September 2024. All retracement levels are on the main chart with labels on the right side. ========+++++++++++========+++++++++++======== Here are the stats using the data from completed Cycle wave A and possible completion of Cycle wave B: Wave A lost 1,327.04 points over 195 trading days for a rise over run of 6.805. Wave B gained 956.89 points over 168 trading days for a rise over run of 5.696. This was 86.15% of the duration of wave A and a 72.11% retracement of wave A’s movement. Based on waves ending in 152C, Cycle wave C could extend the following quartile levels (light blue labels on left side of main chart) of Cycle wave A’s movement—93.53%, 126.25%, & 139.10%. Of note, the longest historical movement extension was only 149.86% of wave A’s movement. The models do not show strong agreement on any lengths, however, a grouping between 312-336 trading days was noted. Based on a slightly broader set of data for waves ending in 52C, quartile levels (yellow lines) are 96.12%, 138.69%, & 144.22%. Once again, the maximum extension is 149.86%. The models agree on duration of 195, 224, and 336 trading days. There are zero levels of secondary model agreement, however, there is large grouping between 106-130 and other groupings at 162-168, 312-317, and 390-392. Lastly, based on the broadest dataset is waves ending in 2C. The quartile levels (white lines) are 109.83%, 132.02%, & 154.44%. Strongest model agreement for duration is at 168 and 195 trading days, secondary agreement at 98 days, third at 224, 292, and 390. The days for reference are: 98: November 6, 2023 112: November 27, 2023 168: February 16, 2024 195: March 27, 2024 224: May 8, 2024 292: August 15, 2024 312: Friday, September 13, 2024 336: October 17, 2024 390: January 3, 2025 These ranges introduce many possibilities. There is a downward trendline that had been providing resistance during Cycle wave A, that may provide resistance during the next downtrend. After reviewing all of the above data and finding intersection points with the trendline I am monitoring the following targets for now. If the bottom is November 27, 2023, the target may be around 3361. If the bottom is May 8, 2024, the target could be 2972.71. The targets thereafter are beyond the 149.86% threshold which has proven consistent thus far. A breach is always possible which would open the door to more targets of 2769 by August 15, 2024 and 2735 by September 13, 2024. The other targets lack intersection at this time. These are the initial estimates moving forward and continuing under the assumption the market has indeed topped at 4448. I will later map out the 5 wave structure to these bottoms to see which ones line up with current movement and additionally identify where we could move if we break above 4448 within the next 15 trading days. The best confirmation right now of us being in Cycle wave C and the final downward slope would be a break below 4048.28 before a move above 4448.47. The first level broken will confirm the next step.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
SBUX is now bouncing of a potential support zone - weeklyThe weekly timeframe shows, that the price of this stock is bouncing of a support zone. It forms from previous bounces from this zone as shown in the chart. Besides that, we have a bullish engulfing candle last week. So there is a potential buy opportunity with a 2:1 Risk-Reward-Ratio to the upside. Enter: 101,87 StopLoss: 95,38 TakeProfit: 113,9 have a great week! Best regards Tradinguny FYI: No financial advice or consulting. It is only my view on the stock and is for entertainment and education purposes only!
NASDAQ:SBUXLong
by GuennyFinance
S&P 500, 6/20/23The 4195.75 long-term support area can contain selling through the balance of the year, above which 4606.50 remains a 3 - 5 month objective, the 4808.25, January 2022 all-time high expected by the end of the year.   On the way up, 4606.50 can contain monthly buying pressures, with a settlement above 4606.50 indicating the targeted 4808.25 within 3 - 5 weeks, where the broader market can double-top on a monthly basis.   Downside, a weekly settlement below 4195.75 would be considered a significant failed long-term buy signal, in essence indicating 3898.25 within 2 - 3 months. - For Tuesday, 4451.75 can contain weekly selling pressures, above which 4606.50 remains 2 - 3 week objective.   Upside Tuesday, 2522.50 can contain session strength, while closing above 4522.50 should yield 4606.50 by the end of next week, able to contain buying through July.   Downside Tuesday, breaking/opening below 4451.75 allows 4404.25 intraday, able to contain session weakness and the level to settle below for indicating a good weekly high, 4299.50 then expected by the end of next week, where the market can place a weekly low, possibly into later July trade.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
Nasdaq100 Big Picture Short Monthly ResistanceNasdaq100 Big Picture Short Monthly Resistance: First, there is now big and strong Resistance and I expect the price imminently to drop under 14,500, if you look at the highs of months 2-3-4 of 2022, we are there now + the trend line of the 2 must-high prices at top. Second, the price structure of the last Rally that we see now should make a down movement now according to the history of this symbol and how he acts. Even if he gonna do a new high first and from here a down movement should come. Also dont forget the Fed says that by the end of the year, he expected a recession. There are few options to out in a profit, see photo. the less risky one is to close 90% on take profit 1 and move stop loss to zero.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by StudyWallStreet
1
Bull Consolidation Ahead of the Holiday-shortened Next WeekS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 06/16 The spectacular bull run of the last few weeks fueled by speculation around the Fed policies and, possibly, an epic short squeeze, could be consolidating in the week ahead. Weekly options expirations could be playing another factor today. The potential bull trap cautioned about by our models continues to be in play, while the markets seem to be calling the bluff of Powell's hawkish posturing in yesterday's "hawkish pause" presser. Nevertheless, bears should be cautious of not jumping the gun but wait for confirmation before initiating any shorts. It is a bull market until it is broken - currently, this bull run is not broken. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate no positional trading plans for today, as they are wary of a potential bull trap ahead, while also cautious about continued short squeezes off of any fresh shorts drawn in by the prints higher in the "new bull market". By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4442, 4420, or 4400 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4439, 4414, or 4394 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exit on a break below 4420, and short exits on a break above 4343 or 4383. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:01am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #softlanding, #hawkishpause, #pause
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Markets Calling the "Hawkish" Bluff of Powell?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 06/15 The potential bull trap cautioned about by our models continues to be in play, while the markets seem to be calling the bluff of Powell's hawkish posturing in yesterday's "hawkish pause" presser. Nevertheless, bears should be cautious of not jumping the gun but wait for confirmation before initiating any shorts. It is a bull market until it is broken - currently, this bull run is not broken. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate no positional trading plans for today, as they are wary of a potential bull trap ahead. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for THU. 06/15: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4425, 4400, 4392, 4475, or 4361 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4397, 4389, 4371, 4358, or 4337 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exit on a break below 4420, and short exits on a break above 4343 or 4383. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:01am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #softlanding, #hawkishpause, #pause
CBOE:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
FOMC Decision - Hawkish Pause! Back to the Basics?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 06/14 Our trading plans published yesterday mentioned: "...our models are flashing potential for a bull trap ahead, possibly once the "fed pause" becomes official tomorrow". Today's FOMC decision is a "hawkish pause", giving an open case to be made for both the bulls and the bears, as expected. With this in the rear view mirror now, expect some choppiness to prevail thru the 2:30pm ET press conference, and then some downside action to persist into the close unless some unexpectedly softish comments from Powell. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate going short on a break below 4310 and going long on a break above 4315, with a 45-point trailing stop. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for WED. 06/14: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4392, 4375, 4353, 4341, 4313, or 4300 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4389, 4369, 4337, 4310, or 4296 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exit on a break below 4348 or 4320, and short exits on a break above 4325. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 02:31pm ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #softlanding
CBOE:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Is the rest of the market joining the rally?The weekly chart (on the bottom) shows that SPY and RSP were highly correlated until early March. After March, we have seen the two separate in YTD returns. The correlation coefficient confirms this break in trading. The breakdown in correlation between the RSP and SPY is most evident between May and June when RSP lost value and SPY gained value. In the last week, we have seen SPY clear August '22 high. For many, this confirms that a new bull market has begun. While the RSP is far from its August '22 high, we saw it break a short-term resistance level yesterday (6/13/23). The correlation coefficient is also rising back towards 1. It appears that RSP is beginning a new leg up. I believe a new leg up in the RSP confirms the Bull case for the SPY. With the Fed decision this week and both equities close to a support/resistance line, I am also watching for the invalidation of this breakout in the RSP and SPY. For me, that would be both equities closing below their near support/resistance lines.
AMEX:RSPLong
by Ronald_Ryninger
DXY: It won't happen, but if it does... 😱More than 97% of analysts say the FOMC won't raise interest rates tomorrow, but what will happen to Dollar Index, FX:EURUSD , TVC:GOLD and FRED:SP500 if Powell decides to hike interest rates by 25bp instead? Most likely, tomorrow's announcement will be our driver at least for the whole summer, because this event will have a strong impact on the market. So we just have to wait 24 hours, and we will have the verdict! ...And you? what do you think?
TVC:DXY
by TheAnonymousBanker
Celebrating the Lowest High Inflation?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 06/13 With the post-CPI spike and the subsequent early session market action, our models are flashing potential for a bull trap ahead, possibly once the "fed pause" becomes official tomorrow. As we first stated to start this week, if you are a bull, it may be prudent to take some profits off the table; if you are a bear, you might want to wait for confirmation of downside bias. With heavy economic calendar this week culminating in the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday, the focus will be back to the inflation and interest rates (potentially being confirmed as not a concern anymore, IF the FOMC pauses rate hikes as widely expected). Any concerns of potential recession seem to be not on the market's radar for now. As can be expected, our models are flashing heightened probabilities for spikes in both directions, with no clear directional bias yet. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate no trading plans for today, as they are in an indeterminate state. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for TUE. 06/13: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4367, 4348, 4340, 4311, or 4300 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4364, 4354, 4334, 4308, or 4297 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exit on a break below 4345 or 4320, and short exits on a break above 4357 or 4326. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:26am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #softlanding, #cpi
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
S&P 500, 6/13/23For Tuesday, 4348.75 can contain intraday weakness, 4385.00 in reach and able to contain intraday strength.   Pushing/opening above 4385.00 allows 4409.00 intraday, able to contain session strength and the level to settle above for yielding the targeted 4430.50 formation tomorrow, where the market can top out into July activity.   Downside Tuesday, breaking/opening below 4348.75 signals 4328.75, able to contain session weakness.   Closing today below 4328.75 indicates 4263.75 within several days, also able to contain session weakness and the point to settle below for indicating 4190.25 - 4203.75 long-term support within several more days.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
Inflation, Yields, and FOMC in Focus This WeekS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 06/12 The precarious rally of the last month has been baffling many with its lack of the breadth - the rally concentrated in just a handful of big-tech names. In the last trading plan - published on Thursday, 06/08 - we wrote: "If the rally does not dissipate this week, then it could be indicative of yet another leg up that could obliterate the shorts". The rally did NOT dissipate last week, but rather accelerated. With heavy economic calendar this week culminating in the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday, the focus will be back to the inflation and interest rates (potentially being confirmed as not a concern anymore, IF the FOMC pauses rate hikes as widely expected). Any concerns of potential recession seem to be not on the market radar for now. As can be expected, our models are flashing heightened probabilities for spikes in both directions, with no clear directional bias yet. As we first stated to start this week, if you are a bull, it may be prudent to take some profits off the table; if you are a bear, you might want to wait for confirmation of downside bias. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate no trading plans for today, as they are in an indeterminate state. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for MON. 06/12: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4323, 4305, or 4275 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4320, 4302, 4297, 4290, or 4270 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit short exits on a break above 4314, 4299, or 4293. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:46am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #softlanding
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
S&P 500 and my first published Alpha Phantom indicatorI'm currently going through all possible currencies, assets, cryptocurrencies, etc... and see what my new published indicator works best on. Indicator here: I will be happy if you try it and give me feedback. I will also be very happy for information on the best place to trade with the currencies of EURUSDT etc... or with Amazon, Dow etc... Thanks for all the responses, you can find more information directly at the indicator. If there is interest in it, then I will definitely not turn it off and I will set access according to your requests. Have a nice day and enjoy trading
SP:SPX
by Bitcoinblockchainonline
S&P500 , can ascend further!The SPX is in a Bullish phase by Ascending Triangle. 🌟 Bullish signals are: - Pivot Yearly - Ascending Triangle - PRZ ZONE - break the Ascending Triangle ❗ and the Upward signals of market momentum are: - moving Ema 200 ⭐ Note if the PRZ is broken downwards with the strength of Bearish candles , this analysis of ours will be failed. ✅If this post was useful for you, like it ❤️ and if you think it is useful for your friends, be sure to send it to them. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 🌍Thank you for seeing idea . Have a nice day and Good luck.
SP:SPXLong
by CobraVanguard
14
The last hurrah is here. All aboard to 2400As projected yesterday, Intermediate wave 4 could be complete based on the early morning low on June 8. There is a slim chance Minor wave B inside of Intermediate wave 4 is the current location, but that will be invalidated if the index goes above 4300 tomorrow. To recap. Intermediate wave 1 was 25 trading days and gained 360.62 points. Intermediate wave 2 dropped 121.2 points over 12 days for a retracement of 33.61%. Intermediate wave 3 then gained 251 points over 21 days which was a price extension of 135.99% from the starting point of Intermediate wave 1. Intermediate wave 4 was likely completed today and would have retraced 15.22% of wave 3 by only dropping 38.21 points over 3 days. I am surprised by the accuracy of the models to project such a shallow drop over very few days in Intermediate wave 4 but the historic data was spot on. I put is in Sub-millennial wave 1, Grand Supercycle wave 5, Supercycle wave 2, Cycle wave B, Primary wave C, Intermediate wave 5. I use shorthand to call it 152BC5 Intermediate wave 5 must now be less than the 21 days of Intermediate wave 3 as wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave. Based on models ending in 2BC5, strongest model agreement is on wave 5 to last 2 or 17 days, second most agreement is at 4, 5, and 18 days. The quartile movement extensions based on Intermediate wave 3’s movement (light blue lines) are 121.05%, 153.2%, and 186.17%. The first quartile of all historic movement reverses after a move to the 121.05% level which is 4352.12. The median movement reverses after a move to the 153.2% level which is 4432.81, while the third quartile is at 186.17% which is 4515.57. Based on waves ending in BC5, largest model agreement places the length at 5 trading days in length, second most agreement is 6 and 18 days, third is 3, 4, 10, and 12 days. The quartile movement extensions (yellow level) are 122.06%, 137.71% and 153.2%. Final projections are based on waves ending in C5 where largest model agreement has the length at 4 days, second most at 6 days, third most at 5 days, fourth at 12 days. The quartile retracements (white line) 109.46%, 122.9%, and 151.06%. There are also two major resistance lines in play. One stems from the end of Primary wave A from December 1, 2022 and aligned with the Intermediate wave B top from Primary wave B on February 2, 2023. The other trendline has been solid resistance since February 21st and the market never closed above it since then. If this second trendline proves the fatal resistance, it could be tested as late as June 26 around a level of 4352.12. If the first resistance line is the fatal level it could be around 4393.93 and achieved as soon as the day of the next Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. I dramatically call this next top a fatal level in that I expect it to be the final market top for many years. This will be the end of Cycle wave B and a continuation of the Bear Market which ultimately topped on January 4, 2022. I am projecting the length of Intermediate wave 5 to last between 4 and 12 trading days. I have three key dates which could contain the top based on the historical data above. Day 4 is the next Federal Reserve rate decision on June 14th. Day 11 is June 26th where nothing major appears to be occurring which is the same on July 5 or Day 17. I do not expect the top to surpass 4410 and could possibly top out around 4393. 4393 is within 100 points from today’s close which means Intermediate wave 5 will likely be very fast. The TVC:VIX is very low right now and a huge indicator of complacency in an economy that is quickly slowing and on the immediate verge of higher inflation and/or recession. A break above the second mentioned resistance trendline may get the bulls fired up but I am 95% certain it is a false breakout and bull trap. My initial calls for the bottom are around December 2024 somewhere between 2200-2400. I have been projecting this entire run up and final bottom since July of last year with pretty decent accuracy. I am using math, statistics and history to project forward market movement. I have figured this next drop could revolve around China taking Taiwan and disrupting the world’s microchip supply. Not sure if this happens next week but it could still be an issue that further escalates the selling over the next 12 months. There is a chance the US economy is heavily impacted now that students must continue paying their student loan debt and thus not spending money on luxury items or other facets of their daily lives. There is also a chance of Russia doing something exotic in Ukraine to attempt to upend the conflict. And as always the other black swan event most people have not seen coming. Metals will likely become more expensive and most companies selling luxury goods that are not necessary will get crushed (I am thinking NYSE:DIS and NYSE:DRI here). Casinos and gambling websites could have issues sometime next year when money starts to get very tight and people can not afford to make the gambles they will likely take in the beginning. Some companies will outright fail and go bankrupt while others will be forced to slash prices to remain relevant once the world comes out of this recession. Don’t panic, invest wisely.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
QQQ: I might be wrong (Inverted Chart)I have been a staunch bear since about March. Since the lows expected a nice bounce but that we would resume the downtrend at some point. Nothing has convinced me that this market would not do anything besides have another period of pullbacks, until I inverted the QQQ today. From this perspective, I cannot help but see the very real possibility of a double top at the very least. At that point though, there is no reason we couldn't keep going and make new highs. The macro economic conditions are not ideal in the slightest but this might be the kind of bull that is largely absent retail and will say that way until we actually start to top. A bull, minus retail, is what this looks like. You are not having investors capitulate easily at all. Buyers have been positioned large and they plan on staying there for a while. Very hard to say. This is by far the hardest market to judge, that I personally have participated in. I am thinking about taking some long positions in certain companies, maybe even the Qs but I will be doing so cautiously.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by Goontata84
1