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AI Shaping the Market Landscape of 2030-sDear @TradingView , Today, I would like to share some observations regarding the S&P Composite index that highlight a repeatable market cycle. It is evident that this cycle consists of a 30-20 year period of Economic Growth, followed by a subsequent phase of 15-10 years characterized by Downturn or Sideways movement. By examining the historical data, we can identify patterns that shed light on the cyclical nature of the market. Throughout history, the market has experienced periods of significant economic expansion, often driven by transformative inventions and advancements. These innovations, such as sailing, engines, railroads, electricity, medicine, computers, the internet, smartphones, fertilizer, and artificial intelligence, have played pivotal roles in shaping positive market trends. Each breakthrough has had a profound impact on various industries, driving productivity, and spurring economic growth. Sailing: Pioneering Global Trade (Timeline: Ancient Times) Sailing, one of humanity's earliest inventions, opened up new avenues for exploration and trade. The ability to traverse vast distances by sea connected civilizations, facilitated the exchange of goods, and laid the foundation for early economic systems. Engines: Powering Industrial Revolution (Timeline: 18th-19th Century) The invention of steam engines during the Industrial Revolution revolutionized manufacturing and transportation. Steam-powered engines enabled the mass production of goods and led to the creation of railways, powering economic growth and fostering global trade networks. Railroads: Connecting Nations (Timeline: 19th Century) The advent of railroads marked a monumental shift in transportation. The construction of railway networks facilitated efficient movement of goods and people, enabling rapid industrialization and spurring economic development across continents. Fertilizer: Revolutionizing Agriculture (Timeline: 19th Century) The development and widespread use of fertilizers marked a significant turning point in agricultural practices. During the 19th century, scientists discovered the importance of essential nutrients for plant growth. The invention of chemical fertilizers allowed farmers to replenish soil nutrients, thereby increasing crop yields and transforming agricultural productivity. The widespread adoption of fertilizers revolutionized global food production, ensuring food security and supporting population growth. Electricity: Illuminating a New Era (Timeline: Late 19th Century) The discovery and harnessing of electricity ushered in a new era of innovation and productivity. Electric power revolutionized industries, enabling the mass production of consumer goods, while also transforming communication and lighting systems, contributing to economic growth. Medicine: Advancing Healthcare (Timeline: 20th Century) Medical advancements, such as vaccines, antibiotics, and improved surgical techniques, have significantly improved public health and increased life expectancy. These breakthroughs not only saved lives but also led to increased productivity and economic stability. Computers: Automation and Digital Revolution (Timeline: 20th Century) The invention of computers and subsequent advancements in computing technology revolutionized the way we work, communicate, and process information. Automation, data analysis, and improved efficiency in various sectors led to increased productivity and the emergence of new industries. The Internet: Global Connectivity (Timeline: Late 20th Century) The internet, a transformative invention of the late 20th century, connected the world in an unprecedented manner. It facilitated the exchange of information, enabled e-commerce, and transformed communication. The internet played a pivotal role in the emergence of new business models and industries, driving market growth. Smartphones: Empowering Connectivity (Timeline: 21st Century) Smartphones revolutionized the way we access information, communicate, and interact with the world. These handheld devices amalgamated various technologies, such as internet connectivity, computing power, and applications, making them indispensable tools for personal and business use. The widespread adoption of smartphones led to significant advancements in mobile technology and transformed industries such as e-commerce, social media, and digital entertainment. Artificial Intelligence (AI): Shaping the Future (Timeline: Present) Artificial intelligence has emerged as a game-changer in recent years, with applications spanning across industries. AI algorithms and machine learning techniques are driving automation, data analysis, and predictive capabilities, enhancing productivity and enabling the development of innovative solutions. AI continues to revolutionize industries such as writing, coding, finance, security, manufacturing, and transportation, driving market growth and shaping the future of various sectors. Throughout history, transformative inventions and advancements have played crucial roles in shaping the market landscape. The S&P Composite index serves as a valuable tool to gauge market performance and track these cycles over time. By analyzing the historical movements of the index, we can observe the repetitive pattern of prolonged Economic Growth, typically spanning around 30-20 years. During this phase, the market experiences upward trends driven by innovation, increasing productivity, and expanding global trade. However, it is important to recognize that these periods of growth are not indefinite. As history has shown, there comes a point when the market enters a phase of Downturn or Sideways movement, lasting approximately 15-10 years. This phase is characterized by market corrections, global wars, economic recessions, or periods of depression, where the market may exhibit increased volatility and limited overall growth. Sincerely Artem Shevelev
TVC:SPX
by ArShevelev
1
Weekly Update: Bitcoin to ALMOST Triple?Approximately a month ago on CNBC, the ticker displayed on the bottom of my TV screen would be fixated with a quote of Bitcoin. The bewilderment of the CNBC hosts with the fact that Bitcoin was actually moving up and displaying stable price action, in the midst of a banking crisis was, to them, counterintuitive. Inexplicable. In my trading office I keep CNBC on as back ground noise. To be a trader, and incorporate most anything uttered on CNBC into a trading or analytical thesis to derive a profit, is akin to just donating your money to an unworthy cause. This post is not about how worthless, or destructive I find the content being CNBC produces for professional traders and investors at large... so relax . Bitcoin’s most recent top occurred on April 14, 2023 at $31,050. On my daily live-videos Bitcoin is discussed every day. On April I5th I posted in my trading room: ” Weekend Update: Is EVERYTHING about to come down together?” The aftermath of that post of Bitcoin at $31,050 was a projected path that would cause a 25% decline in the asset price. Soon after BTC started it’s decent, the CNBC guests couldn’t wait to declare the irresponsibility of any trader or investor propping those "things" up. Suffice to say, we're down almost 25% now. I bring this up not to say, “look at me, I’m smart, CNBC is stupid…bla, bla, bla)…I do that to get those of you reading this post… to pay attention to what I say next. In writing, that’s called, “The Hook” . Suffice to say, in that post I covered many assets, and today’s conclusion would be precisely what I forecasted on the 15th of April. Everything covered did come down together and to the targets pointed out for every asset mentioned, we’re hit, or very close and about to be hit. I bring that up because here’s another one of those posts that you can track, bookmark or keep handy to refer back to periodically if you choose to do so. In my analysis I am forecasting tier-1 crypto (BTC, ETH, SOL and ADA) to embark on an impulsive move higher. A move that that should start imminently. Now this is a proclamation that has caused me great consternation because at the same time, I am forecasting US Markets to do the exact same thing… but in the opposite direction . So how does one square risk assets, like crypto moving higher, while simultaneously, global stock markets are moving lower? In truth. Only through the kind of analysis I practice, and speculation, because the event mentioned has NOT happened. There is no way to tell the future. Trading for a living is not easy. Forecasting price and then sharing that analysis with the public, opens one up to being called out for being wrong. In my case, I do get some ugly direct messages every now and then. Especially when I’m forecasting something that is clearly against someone’s current position. But the truth of the matter is most times I am right, and most times forecasting areas are hit. The manner in which the price action arrives at the target may not be 100% accurate but price does reconcile in my target boxes the vast majority of the time. My forecast for Bitcoin specifically is for price to be in the area of all time highs by this time next year. In my analytical mind, I think it happens before then, but I have no mechanism, nor methodology to accurately forecast timeframe. So, I hope if you have interest in Bitcoin, you’ll track this particular post. Maybe you’ll be encouraged to make your first crypto investment keeping in mind your risk tolerances and proper portfolio allocations. Currently crypto makes up approximately 5% of my resources. I am a crypto investor, not trader. I trade to make a paycheck, a living. Where my crypto coverage basket is now, these are assets not worthy of trading…they’re worthy of owning. Best to all, Chris
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by maikisch
Will the S&P 500 tank (or will bears be forced to capitulate?)Whilst this year's 'rally' on the S&P 500 has been mediocre at best, the increase in net-short exposure to S&P futures has been impressive. As of last Tuesday, large speculators pushed their net-short exposure to the futures contract to their most bearish level since late 2007. Yet with prices rising whilst speculators increase bearish exposure, there is a clear mismatch between the two data sets. And one that will need correcting, one way or another. Prices will either need to roll over to justify the short-exposure of large speculators, or bears will have to capitulate which could also trigger a short-covering rally to send prices higher. A potential catalyst could be if (or when) the US increase their debt ceiling, with reports suggesting we are on the cusp of a 2-year raise - and that could support risk assets such as the S&P 500. But if the talks break down, the deadline is missed and the US government defaults (which would also see the US lose their 'AAA' rating), it could be a case of 'watch out below' as the market slumps to justify the aggressive positions of bears. Either way, this is one to watch as the week's progress.
SP:SPX
by CityIndex
7
CONSOLIDATION NEARING ITS END!The SP500 is in long consolidation and it looks like it is near to its end. I am considering two scenarios: 1. After debt ceiling deal – when they increase debt limit – the price will break up as a bull trap and will bounce from the next resistance. It will fuel the price to push to the targets – near pandemic bottoms. 2. The price, after the deal, will do correction of last decline and will continue to drop till meet the targets.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by Manticore_Investments
Debt Ceiling Deadline Likely to Whipsaw the Markets - Day 3S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 05/24 We started this trading week with our trading plans on Monday titled: "Debt Ceiling Deadline Likely to Whipsaw the Markets", and these words: "Expect the approaching debt ceiling deadline to attract both bulls and bears to heightened speculation, resulting in some whipsaw movements until the deadline passes and the dust settles". Third day into the week, those indications from our models have played out to the letter! Thank you for our loyal readers who have reached out with words of appreciation! We strive to share what we see through the lens of our models, regardless of what the markets might appear to be doing - some days we hit the nail on the head, and some we might miss the nail altogether, but overall our goal is to help our loyal followers gain alpha in their trading performance paralleling that which is being demonstrated since 2018, Dec in our models' performance history. Let your outperformance not lead to overconfidence, though, for overconfidence is shown to be one of the biggest enemies of even the best traders. Our stance last few weeks has been: "Our models are indicating an initial bias towards an inflection point coming soon. Barring any unexpected bullish development showing up on the horizon, chances are that this could be unwinding to the downside". With the debt ceiling drama in high gear, expect the market volatility to continue to increase. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models have initiated the following standing trading plan exactly one week back, on Wed 05/17: "indicate going short at the close if today's close is to be below 4147 (activated at 3:59pm). If opened a short, models indicate instituting a hard stop at 4187". This trading plan was triggered at yesterday's close, and now our positional models are short SPX at 4146.33 with a hard stop at 4187 as indicated in our results last night. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for WED. 05/24: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4162, 4150, 4131, 4113, or 4103 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4157, 4141, 4126, or 4109 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4098 with a 6-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4145, and short exits on a break above 4145. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 12:46pm ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #regionalbanks, #debtceiling
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
SP500 Makes "Failure" Break Higher; Now Short-term Weakness SP500 is making a sharp reversal, so it appears it was failure break higher after that overcrowded trade when everyone expected 4200 to be a major breakout point for the bull run. We also see USD still in bullish mode which can extend gains much higher now if stocks will be in risk-off mode. Looking at the SP500 price action, we see price falling below the trendline support so it seems that five wave rise from the March low is finished and that minimum three wave drop is in play. Big important level can be 4060/4070 which has been retested a few times in the last two months. Below that we have 4k, near 61.8% Fib.
CME_MINI:ESM2023
by ew-forecast
SPY Order Flow - Script Fires Rare Signals Of Buying FatigueHey traders, Brace yourself for today's short and sweet insights on the use of the OFA script. So, SPY has been levitating around the year highs... However, as order flow traders, we don't marry to the long bias if the script sends the opposite signals. What we care about is looking for the hidden signals not easily visible on a clean chart By adding the OFA script, you could have called the back-to-back exhaustions, signaled via the DIAMOND patterns. If then you applied my prop entry signal (around structure breakouts), it would have offered a very respectable risk reward... Remember, when using the OFA script, it comes with highly accurate signals that, at its core, apply 2 main areas of study: Magnitude: A major clue that will help determine the health of a trend is the type of progress by the dominant side in control of the trend. We need to ask the following question: Are the new legs in the active buy-sell side campaign as identified by the script increasing or decreasing in magnitude? Velocity: When it comes to the distance the price moves, the magnitude is only ½ the equation. The other ½ has to do with the velocity of the move or the speed. Was the new leg created after a fast and impulsive move? Or did price make a new low or high with the movement being sluggish, compressive and taking too long to form? A good rule of thumb is to count the number of candles it took to achieve a new leg. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
AMEX:SPY
by FlowState
2
Debt Ceiling Deadline Likely to Whipsaw the MarketsS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 05/22 Our stance last couple of weeks has been: "Our models are indicating an initial bias towards an inflection point coming soon. Barring any unexpected bullish development showing up on the horizon, chances are that this could be unwinding to the downside". Looks like potentially arriving at some kind of agreement on debt ceiling and avoiding a potential U.S. default is being masqueraded as that "unexpected bullish development" (which almost everyone expected anyway). Whether this move is going to be the start of the next leg up or to be a classic pump-and-dump remains to be seen. For now, the force appears to be with the bulls, possibly aided by the squeeze of retail, leveraged shorts. Expect the approaching debt ceiling deadline to attract both bulls and bears to heightened speculation, resulting in some whipsaw movements until the deadline passes and the dust settles. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models are flashing a potential bull trap ahead if this week's move up proves unsustainable. Models indicate going short at the close if today's close is to be below 4147 (activated at 3:59pm). If opened a short, models indicate instituting a hard stop at 4187. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for MON. 05/22: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4212, 4201, 4186, 4177, or 4165 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4205, 4198, 4183, 4173, or 4161 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4208, and short exits on a break above 4209. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:31am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #regionalbanks, #debtceiling
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
S&p500 Golden Swing Opportunity We are in a very crucial zone in terms of time and price on Sp500 right now and people who make the right decisions will make money. But to make the right decisions you must look at the data and filter out all the noise and be patient. I have presented my case for incoming selloff a few times before and now it's all coming together. I have provided the links to my previous posts below, please go over them to get the full picture. I am building shorts in 4185 to 4230 Area and there are several reasons for that. Technical Reasons: 1. On the chart I have a large parallel channel. Currently the price is hovering near the top edge of the channel. This itself is a reason to look for shorts here. 2. Chart also has an indicator which shows 9 count sell signals as per TD sequential method. Notice what happened last time when the price was near the top of the channel. We got two consecutive nine count sell signals and as soon as price hit the top of the channel multi month sell off began. We have something remarkably similar going on right now. 3. Last time when we were near the top of the channel, we had bear divs on RSI and Money flow, we have them now as well. 4. We have harmonics ratios providing heavy resistance from 4214 region and upwards. 5. Another thing to notice is 4300 is 61.8 retracement level of the move from the top, That's another reason to build shorts here, one should not wait for 4300 to be hit to build short, as its absolute top and may not get hit due to other factors I mentioned above. If we begin the selloff in the coming weeks, we are looking at a possible 30% drop from current levels, in the next 3 to 4 months. I have provided these targets and measures based on past price action from top of the channel to the bottom, this of course is not going to be 100% accurate can change based on future market moving events. We also have below confluences for targets motioned in the chart above: June 14th We have Fed event, and SPX has been moving in the highlighted disjoint channel for a while so if we intersect 14th June with the channel we get the max upside and downside targets. Fundamental reasons: 1. The Fed's actions to raise interest rates are likely to slow the economy, which will lead to a recession. The Fed has said repeatedly they will continue to raise rates to bring down inflation to the target goal of 2% which is not yet achieved so no rate pauses as institutions and new media like people to believe. 2. Debt Ceiling battle: With no resolution in sight, the uncertainties surrounding this event could be the trigger to start the selloff although I am not discounting the possibility of a manipulative rally to 4300 which is a fantastic opportunity to build shorts. 2.1 If there is no resolution on this topic and US defaults everyone knows what will happen , so, until that is resolved all the contrarian traders should be extremely cautious. If you like my content, then please boost, and share this post. I have over 6 years of trading and investing experience and have learned a lot in this time. I like to share what I have learned. If you would like to learn from my experience then follow me on trading view to get notified on my trade, market projections and several upcoming technical analysis and in-depth tutorials on technical Indicators. You can also leave a comment and let me know if you want me to look at any specific asset or want to learn about any specific topic in the world of Technical Analysis. I Will do my best to create a post for it. Keep learning and Happy trading All.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by zakoraio
2
Powell to Help Set Some Direction Today?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 05/19 Our stance last couple of weeks has been: "Our models are indicating an initial bias towards an inflection point coming soon. Barring any unexpected bullish development showing up on the horizon, chances are that this could be unwinding to the downside". Looks like potentially arriving at some kind of agreement on debt ceiling and avoiding a potential U.S. default is being masqueraded as that "unexpected bullish development" (which almost everyone expected anyway). Whether this move is going to be the start of the next leg up or to be a classic pump-and-dump remains to be seen. For now, the force appears to be with the bulls, possibly aided by the squeeze of retail, leveraged shorts. Markets would be trying to split the hair and parse every word from Powell's speech today to desperately gain some sense of direction. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models are flashing a potential bull trap ahead if this week's move up proves unsustainable. Models indicate going short at the close if today's close is to be below 4147 (activated at 3:59pm). If opened a short, models indicate instituting a hard stop at 4187. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for FRI. 05/19: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4212, 4205, 4198, 4186, 4177, or 4165 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4194, 4183, 4173, or 4161 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4208 or 4101. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:01am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #regionalbanks, #debtceiling, #powellspeech, #powell
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
$SPX looks like it wants to keep goingWith the TVC:VIX breaking the symmetrical triangle, see previous post, to the downside we're seeing high levels of complacency. Much of this doesn't make sense but we've been saying for the longest times that markets are IRRATIONAL! With #SPX breaking we could very well see a bigger push and faster. At the moment they are saying it's just a handful of companies leading, while there is truth in that, equal weight indices are beginning to push higher.
SP:SPX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Markets Celebrating the Obvious? Day 2S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 05/18 Our stance last couple of weeks has been: "Our models are indicating an initial bias towards an inflection point coming soon. Barring any unexpected bullish development showing up on the horizon, chances are that this could be unwinding to the downside". Looks like potentially arriving at some kind of agreement on debt ceiling and avoiding a potential U.S. default is being masqueraded as that "unexpected bullish development" (which almost everyone expected anyway). Whether this move is going to be the start of the next leg up or to be a classic pump-and-dump remains to be seen. For now, the force appears to be with the bulls, possibly aided by the squeeze of retail, leveraged shorts. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models are flashing a potential bull trap ahead if this morning's move up proves unsustainable. Models indicate going short at the close if today's close is to be below 4147 (activated at 3:59pm). If opened a short, models indicate instituting a hard stop at 4187. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for THU. 05/18: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4187, 4176, 4165, 4155, or 4143 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4183, 4173, 4151, or 4138 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4161. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:16am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #regionalbanks, #debtceiling
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Markets Celebrating the Obvious?!S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 05/17 Our stance last couple of weeks has been: "Our models are indicating an initial bias towards an inflection point coming soon. Barring any unexpected bullish development showing up on the horizon, chances are that this could be unwinding to the downside". Looks like Biden and McCarthy potentially coming close to some kind of agreement on debt ceiling and avoid a potential U.S. default is being masqueraded as that "unexpected bullish development" (which almost everyone expected anyway). Whether this move is going to be the start of the next leg up or to be a classic pump-and-dump remains to be seen. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models are flashing a potential bull trap ahead if this morning's move up proves unsustainable. Models indicate going short at the close if today's close is to be below 4147 (activated at 3:59pm). If opened a short, models indicate instituting a hard stop at 4187. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for WED. 05/17: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4165, 4153, 4132, 4102, or 4091 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4158, 4147, 4129, 4099, or 4088 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4109, and explicit short exits on a break above 4116. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 01:31pm ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #regionalbanks, #debtceiling
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom