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Sp500index

Called the top, now the next 2 bottomsIt appears Minor wave 3 (yellow number 3) may have concluded. I called the top around 4112 and it hit 4110.75 near the close on Friday. We shall see how Monday opens but a new low should be in the making over the next two days. Next up is Minor wave 4. The historical data has been very consistent with a 47-49% reversals for wave 4s in wave 1s in wave Cs. I initially thought that is too much in a 1-2 day span (drop of nearly 100 points), it is certainly not impossible with the market’s volatility during this overall bearish market. The gains should continue for a final hurrah to end the week after Minor wave 4 is completed (most likely) on Tuesday. Minor wave 5 is also the end of Intermediate wave 1 (purple number 1). Historically these waves extend around 117% of their respective wave 3s. The top should not really be higher than 4150, but the current placement on the chart is temporary and will get updated once Minor wave 4 is complete and the data is applied to the program. Minor wave 1 was 7 days long while Minor wave 3 was only 5 days long. Elliott wave rules state wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave therefore Minor wave 5 mush be 5 days or less. If wave 5 begins on Tuesday, day 1 would not start until Wednesday. This means Minor wave 5 and Intermediate wave 1 must end by Wednesday April 12 (April 7 is a market holiday). Intermediate wave 2 will likely require a later event to setup at least a week of declines. With the CPI report coming out before the open on April 12th, this is the likely catalyst for Intermediate wave 2. It most likely means Intermediate wave 1 would end on or before April 11th around 4145. The placement of Intermediate wave 2 is even more of an estimate with an initial forecasted length around 6-7 days. This would coincide with the beginning of earnings season. The banks kick it off next week, but reports start coming in around April 20th. Complete WAG is a low below 3990 by April 19. We will continue to watch how this all unfolds as we climb to the next major peak around 4400 early this summer.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
$QQQ $SPY Full Bull control but its a little extended.- QQQ and SPY has a very strong bull move last 4 days with zero signs of bears but they move is quite extended and im looking for a daily consolidation to shape up - If the consolidation is healthy the bull move will likely continue so i will be watching how the consolidation shapes up. - SPY is approaching some key resistance around 410 area also potentially shaping up a daily H&S we'll have to see how it trades around 410 Next week - i will be on team bull until bears show me signs of weakness during daily consolidation.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by ArcadiaTrading
2
SPX Model Trading Plans for FRI. 03/31PCE, Window Dressing, and Witching This morning's PCE data release was a yawn. While the window dressing is going to exert a push to the upside, the quarterly index options' positioning looks to be exerting a pull to the downside. Which side wins - especially in the last hour - could determine how we close today. After that, Monday will be a whole new story. Positional Trading Models: Only nimble, opportunistic trading - as opposed to positional trading - could be safe in these waters. Hence, our positional models are indicating to stay on the sidelines for yet another day. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for FRI. 03/31: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4073, 4064, 4036, or 4033 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4068, 4060, 4053, 4044, or 4029 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exit on a break below 4060, and explicit short exit on a break above 4064 or 4048. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:01am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #fomc, #fed, #newhigh, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #powell, #interestrates, #yields, #bankfailures, #SVB, #CreditSuisse, #Deutsche
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
$SPYCore PCE which is the Fed's favored methods in evaluating inflation just hit the wires and came in softer than expected, but still above the Fed's ideal. T&S is reflecting that pre-market traders are enjoying the news, albeit on low volume. It is the end of the quarter heading into the weekend so todays price action will be important, lets take a look at some levels The majority of yesterdays darkpool action occurred below the bid, the areas with the most significant orders occurred at 401.27 & 403.64, we will look at these as local supports. bulls need a break above 409, bears need a break below 400. these are the potential scenarios I will look for today : long: - break above PM high, retest & hold - dip to yday's darkpool prints & hold short: - pop to PM high & fail - break below yday darkpool prints, retest & fail resistances: 405.22, 407.20, 409 supports: 403.64, 401.27, 400, 398, 396.62,393.69
AMEX:SPY
by runNgun
No man's land?Over the past few months, many people continued to argue that the bull market has begun and much more upside awaits us. However, since SPX’s lows in mid-October 2022, the market remained relatively choppy for the entire period. In fact, the SPX’s current level is the same as that between mid-November 2022 to mid-December 2022, putting the valuation where it was about four months ago. Throughout the relevant period, it seems the market always found resistance between $4 000 and $4 200, which for the most part, coincided with the release of some bearish data, causing a temporary drop that got quickly absorbed by the market. We already outlined in previous articles how this could be a result of a beaten-up market looking for any excuse to rally after a terrible performance in 2022. Right now, SPX is again in this magical area that has acted as a strong resistance until now. Therefore, we will pay attention to SPX’s behavior within this zone, with a focus on today’s release of economic data in the U.S. that includes initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, GDP sales, GDP Price Index, GDP growth rate, PCE prices, Core PCE prices, real consumer spending, and corporate profits. We will also pay close attention to technical indicators like RSI, MACD, and Stochastic on the daily chart. If MACD breaks above the mid-point, it will be bullish for the short term. Likewise, if RSI and Stochastic rise further, it will also be bullish. In particular, with the RSI, we will also observe its ability to peak (if the market heads higher). In bear markets, it is more common for it to peak below 70 points (or trend sideways below this level before breaking down). In general, we would say there is a lot of uncertainty among investors, which will likely translate to more choppiness for the market in the short and medium term (until more economic data reflects severe economic problems on various fronts and something snaps). With that said, our outlook beyond the short-term and medium-term fluctuations does not change; we still expect the recession to progress further and eventually start manifesting in a weak stock market, dragging it to new lows. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of SPX and ES1! with RSI below them. It can be easily spotted how RSI managed to break above 70 points only once during 2022. The SPX is approximately up 15% from its October 2022 low while being down about the same margin from its peak in January 2022. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Slightly bullish (Weak trend) Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
3
My today's view on SP500 - FutureHi Traders, This is my view for today on ES Micro and Macro structure are both aligned. There’re few zone I’ll wait for the price to test: - 4025 for a short - 4080/90 for a short, as well - 3960 for a long (but I need a strong confirmation) Pit, Trading Kitchen DISCLAIMER: Trading activity is very dangerous. All the contents, suggestions, strategies, videos, images, trade setups and forecast, everything you see on this website and are the result of my personal evaluations and was created for educational purposes only and not as an incentive to invest. Do not consider them as financial advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by kitchen_trading
1
SPX Model Trading Plans for THU. 03/30Window Dressing Buoying The Markets? As we wrote in our trading plans on Tue., 03/28: "However, our models indicate the risk for the markets to spike to the upside rather than to the downside, owing to the potential for quarter-end window dressing. We will get more clarity on this potential as we approach Friday". Our models continue to monitor the price action today for a potential spike up into tomorrow. Positional Trading Models: Only nimble, opportunistic trading - as opposed to positional trading - could be safe in these waters. Hence, our positional models are indicating to stay on the sidelines for yet another day. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for THU. 03/30: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4057, 4042, 4033, or 4016  with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4053, 4029, 4013, or 4007 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exit on a break below 4038, and explicit short exit on a break above 4010. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:31am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #fomc, #fed, #newhigh, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #powell, #interestrates, #yields, #bankfailures, #SVB, #CreditSuisse, #Deutsche
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
S&P500 - Will we get lower lows?Hello traders! In previous posts about the sp500 (see links in description) we argued that some downside was coming and posted our short entry at 3994. As you can see from the main chart, we connsidered the previous upside from October's low as a corrective move with choppy price action and low volumes. We are considering different possibilities: either that move was a primary wave (B) to the upside, and main downtrend is resuming for lower lows, or it was only the first leg of this primary (B), and we are retracing down with an intermediate wave B about to conclude. We are keeping our short with stop loss on entry. We will refer to patterns and sentiment to assess probabilities of different scenarios. The light orange zone of support that you can see in the chart, if broken, will activate a bearish head and shoulder that will lead to lower lows. However, since it is not broken, this pattern has not statistical validity. Here you can see a bearish wolfe wave whose target will be consistent with both scenarios. No hints for neither case from a pattern perspective until 3766 holds. From a sentiment andfundamental perspective, we have seen soft lending narrative and the idea that slowing inflation may have led to a Fed pivot boosting bullish sentiment in tha last months. However, FED kept raising rates and banks are suffering it. The fact that all analysts and the general sentiment is not worry about it is a point in favour of a lower low;). But to consider it we want to see impulsive acceleration to the downside. Until then our targets will be 3840 and 3780. Bests GMR
U
by GMR-Capital
SPX Model Trading Plans for WED. 03/29Choppiness to Persist Into Friday? As we wrote in our trading plans for yesterday, Tue., 03/28: "However, our models indicate the risk for the markets to spike to the upside rather than to the downside, owing to the potential for quarter-end window dressing. We will get more clarity on this potential as we approach Friday". Our models continue to be in an indeterminate state. Positional Trading Models: Only nimble, opportunistic trading - as opposed to positional trading - could be safe in these waters. Hence, our positional models are indicating to stay on the sidelines for yet another day. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for WED. 03/29: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4010, 4000, 3987, or 3972  with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4004, 3994, 3982, or 3967 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate no explicit long exits or short exits for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:45am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #fomc, #fed, #newhigh, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #powell, #interestrates, #yields, #bankfailures, #SVB, #CreditSuisse, #Deutsche
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
S&P500 wants to go up!In my last analyses about the SPX , I spoke about a bottom of the index. The price was in the process of breaking the resistance when I created that post. De deciding factor was whether we could create new support out of old resistance, which is happening right now. First, the lower part of the zone was touched and made the price bounce. Now, we're witnissing the upper part of the zone being turned into support. Once this process has finished, the new uptrend can officially begin.
SP:SPXLong
by FetchTeam
SPX Model Trading Plans for TUE. 03/28Rising Yields Back In Focus With the banking chaos now a bit settled, the markets seem to be focusing back on Interest rates (and, hence inflation). The rising yields today seem to be holding back the markets. However, our models indicate the risk for the markets to spike to the upside rather than to the downside, owing to the potential for quarter-end window dressing. We will get more clarity on this potential as we approach Friday. For today, the models continue to be in an indeterminate state. Positional Trading Models: Only nimble, opportunistic trading - as opposed to positional trading - could be safe in these waters. Hence, our positional models are indicating to stay on the sidelines for yet another day. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for TUE. 03/28: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 3986, 3976, 3965, or 3957  with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3983, 3962, or 3955 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 3972. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:45am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #fomc, #fed, #newhigh, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #powell, #interestrates, #yields, #bankfailures, #SVB, #CreditSuisse, #Deutsche
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
US Regional Banks: Is the Worst Over?📝The KBW NASDAQ REGIONAL BANKING INDEX is a stock index composed of regional US banks operating in one or several geographic regions of the country. These banks tend to be smaller in size than the large national banks, and generally offer banking services to businesses and individuals in their areas of operation. Index performance is affected by a number of factors, including the health of the regional economy in which these banks operate, interest rates and regulatory policies that affect the banking industry. 📈 Looking in parallel with the S&P500 index, we see that it anticipated the 2008 crisis. Now KBW is in a decisive region, at the same level as before that crisis. The resistance and support levels that delimit this region are in green and red, respectively. Whether it will rise or fall, I don't know... For now I'm just stating this fact. What I can say is that if the index breaks below the red dotted line, it will be an indication that the banking sector could experience more turmoil.
NASDAQ:KRX
by andre_007
Taking another shotSell: 4010 or higher Stop: 4035 Notes : second sell attempt based on the model The model: The Ingenuity Trading Model is a Geometric Markov Model with specific inputs related to Price, Time, Volume , and Volatility. The model attempts to predict local minimums and maximums in price on a daily and weekly basis. A fancy way of saying a trading system that detects specific patterns in price, time, volume, and volatility and indicates whether to buy or sell. On winning trades after 1 day take at least ⅓ of the position off and move stop to breakeven
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by IngenuityTrading
BOOK of SAMUEL: DAVID V GOLIATHWow! This is a first for me, in such a large timeframe. Looking at both patterns forming. The larger head & shoulders pattern may take precedence, as it is generally considered to be a more significant pattern. If the H&S pattern is confirmed, it would suggest that the uptrend is ending and that a downtrend may be beginning. However, if the Inverted H&S pattern is also confirmed, it could indicate that the trend is changing and that an uptrend is beginning.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by theswiftninja
SPX Model Trading Plans for FRI. 03/24When Bank Safes Don't Feel Safe Anymore... Not just U.S. regional banks, but CreditSuisse the other day and now Deutsche Bank...investors seem to be wondering if they can feel safe with their banks, and that could lead to them first selling and then asking questions. So far, there doesn't seem to be much of a panic on the markets...yet. As we wrote in our trading plans yesterday, "For now, markets seem to be still parsing and confused as indicated by the whipsaw action so far". This confusion now could be spreading to not only the FOMC's ability to fight inflation, but about the Fed's ability to avert another 2008-like meltdown in the financial system. How this confusion evolves would have a bearing on where the markets will go in the short term, and we have no way of knowing it. Positional Trading Models: Only nimble, opportunistic trading - as opposed to positional trading - could be safe in these waters. Hence, our positional models are indicating to stay on the sidelines for yet another day. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for FRI. 03/24: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 3957, 3948, 3941, 3926, or 3911 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3946, 3937, 3923, o 3908 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 3953. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:05am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #pce
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
S&P500 Index Range Shifted UpQuite recently the Fed is adding $300B on it's balance sheet to save the economy from banking crisis. The move is effectively reversing the QT to temporary QE. As a result the amount of money supply circulating on the market is increase as shown on this Index Value Rainbow Indicator. Based on these fact we can expect the S&P500 index price range will be shifted up for quite significant amount higher than my previous prediction. S&P500 price could be moving somewhere between 3750 - 4400 in couple months to go. We are using Index Value Rainbow indicator to measure the value of stock market index across various major indexes. This indicator shows multiple value of base Money Supply or Net Liquidity. For US market Net Liquidity formula is as follow: NL = FBS - ( TGA + RRP) NL = Net Liquidity FBS = Fed Balance Sheet TGA = Treasury General Account RRP = Reverse Repo
SP:SPX
by danny_peanuts
S&P500 - Upside is over Hello traders! In previous posts we explained how we believed the last leg up from October's low in the SP to be a primary corrective wave (B) to the upside on overconfidence about the soft landing narrative and FED policies. You can see from this daily chart how low were volumes during this last period. We were expecting the target of this upside movement to be around 4300, but price seems to be failing before, reentering into the previous downtrendline (blue) from January's 2022 top. Either the impulsive movement to the downside is resumed and we are aiming at lower lows, or the primary (B) to the upside still has to conclude and we would be in a retracement before completing it higher. In any case, we believe more downside is coming and we are trading the Head and Shoulder showed in the chart (diagonal neckline), from @3940.1, targeting below 3700. We will update below. Happy trading! ;)
UShort
by GMR-Capital
3
SPX Model Trading Plans for THU. 03/23Collateral Damage or Covert Help? (after being stuck in an indeterminate state, our models are out today with their trading plans for the day) The banking meltdown seems to be the collateral damage from the Fed's battle with inflation. Chair Powell tried his best to be balanced in his press conference post-FOMC yesterday, trying to indicate his preparedness to fight the inflation while indicating he is aware of - and, is on top of containing - the collateral damage that seems to be manifesting in the form of the crisis in regional banks. The crisis - and the resulting potential economic slowdown - could be a helping hand to the FOMC in its fight. The next leg in the markets will depend on how it is interpreted by the investors. For now, markets seem to be still parsing and confused as indicated by the whipsaw action so far. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models are indicating to stay on the sidelines for the day. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for THU. 03/23: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4005, 3996, or 3982 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4000, 3993, or 3978 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit short exits on a break above 3864. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:30am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #pce
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
2
My today's view on SPX500 FutureHi Traders, This is my view for today on ES Ok, the micro-structure. Is aligned to the macro one from are 4050. There is one more GAP to fill around 4080 area. Today’s target is 4090 and could be reached directly during London Session or (better to me) by a liquidity grab from 4057 or Asian Session High Level. Pit, Trading Kitchen DISCLAIMER: Trading activity is very dangerous. All the contents, suggestions, strategies, videos, images, trade setups and forecast, everything you see on this website and are the result of my personal evaluations and was created for educational purposes only and not as an incentive to invest. Do not consider them as financial advice. ———————————
CME_MINI:ESM2023Short
by kitchen_trading