Corrective pattern of wave degree? or a wave higher then correctEsteemed analysts and traders,
I hope this correspondence finds you in good health and high spirits, prepared to tackle the upcoming week with renewed energy. I extend my best wishes for your continued success in all your business endeavors. It is worth noting that success in trading is largely dependent on the consistent definition and adherence to one's own rules.
As a supporter of the Elliott Wave Principle, I consider this methodology an invaluable tool for market analysis. After three years of personal experience, I have developed my approach by combining this principle with meticulous consideration of different market scenarios. I strive to avoid market surprises by maintaining a range of market prospects, which enables me to recognize the market structure forming with 100% accuracy.
I am pleased to share my analysis with you, with the caveat that I do not provide buy or sell signals. My perspective on idea analysis is entirely impartial, and if my analysis meets your standards, it may serve as a guide to making an informed decision.
For your reference and comparison, I have attached my previous analysis of the same market. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled for ease of comprehension. Nonetheless, familiarity with the Elliott Wave Principle theory would facilitate an understanding of the analytical idea.
My study of the Elliott Wave Principle took nearly three years, during which my understanding and experience with this invaluable tool have grown. My progress thus far is a testament to the legacy of Ralph Nelson Eliot, whose genius has provided the foundation for my achievements. May he rest in peace.
I express my gratitude for your continued support and kindness, and welcome your comments and critiques.
May my analysis be a valuable asset to your business journey, and I remain sincerely yours,
Mr. Nobody
Sp500index
SP500 Forecast: Navigating Bearish Trends Towards New All-Time HThe S&P 500 is bearish and heading towards the price zone of 4499.50 and 4430.50 before rising to create a new all-time high."
Cela semble indiquer que vous prévoyez une baisse temporaire du S&P 500 vers les niveaux de prix mentionnés, avant qu'il ne reprenne sa tendance haussière et crée de nouveaux sommets historiques.
User
traduit moi ça en anglais
ChatGPT
"The S&P 500 is bearish and heading towards the price zone of 4499.50 and 4430.50 before rising to create a new all-time high.
New scenarioThat nasty red candle from yesterday changed things. Price bounced off the short term trendline support today. We will see the market going crazy with no clear direction on the upcoming days. Buy I still think the SP500 will make another ATH. In the 4h timeframe looks liken a HS but I don't think is going to play out. We are in another consolidation phase. I'm still accumulating punished stocks like SOFI, ROKU, AFRM, UPST, RBLX. Inflation is not going anywhere, the Dollar peaked out months ago, the market wants assets, the asset holder will triumph on an inflationary environment.
🗓️Weekly Report: Key levels & Trade IdeasGENERAL MARKET REVIEW
Concerns over a potential military attack by Iran on Israel triggered a gap down in the market at the beginning of trading on Friday. Following these events, there was a surge in oil prices, which then led to widespread sell-offs across the board. Virtually all stocks took a hit, with growth stocks experiencing declines ranging from $2 to $72, notably including MicroStrategy NASDAQ:MSTR .
For this evening's analysis, we'll begin by examining the charts of the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) and the S&P-500 (SPX).
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SPX-500
The SP:SPX has been movig lower and plundged to the 50-day Simple Moving Average (red) on Friday. Holding this line could lead to an oversold bounce on the market.
However, should a broader market selling start, then it is very possible that we test the 5000 psychological level or even the 4700 level that was rejected in August 2023 and February 2023.
💡Another interesting fact SP:SPX has created 22 all time highs this year (2024) and returned more than 25% over the past five months and has gone more than 1 year without experiancng a 1 day decling more than -2%. This is the 6th longest such streak since 1965. If you are wondering when are the other times:
2007, 1986, 1996, 2018, 1993. On average the index makes only 29 consecutive trading days without a 1 day that has more than -2% decline💡
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QQQ
Very similar as it is clinging on the 50-day Simple Moving Average. QQQ and SPX are holding much better than the IWM or DIA, which have been consistently underperforming on their Relative Strength against the SPX.
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META
Meta has earnings on 24April (Wednesday). It has been holding very well and is a constructive pattern. You can see a triangle forming. Pay attention to the volume pattern. When the stock is moving up in this base the volume bars are higher than when the stock is moving lower
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NVDA
Too choppy for anything more than a quick trade. Next Technical buy point for me is at the $974 on heavy volume. I could start nibble on it with a quarter or a half position size as it is making constructive formations within this forming base. Constructive formations = higher highs, tight pivots. This is very watched stock so it would have high correlation to the general market
If History Rhymes, Here Is Top and BottomI am still quite confident the markets are set to drop significantly in 2024. I have studied correctional wave patterns that are similar to our current situation wherein the market topped on January 4, 2022 and began the corrective pattern.
**The pattern contains a wave B that is larger than wave A in duration and movement. The wave C then moves more than wave B**
The current case so far so the index drop 1,327.04 points over 195 trading days. As of the close on March 6, 2024, wave B has gained 1,658.09 points in 347 trading days (the current top for this calculation is 5149.67 on March 4.
CURRENT SITUATION SO FAR:
I have found similar conditions 11 times historically and studied how waves B and C reacted in those situations and applied it to the current case to determine where wave B could end and what wave C could do.
******2023******
This first event began February 24, 2023. I will use 6 minute bars for comparisons. This is an inversion to today's scenario as the B wave moved down instead of up. Waves A and B looked like this:
Wave A moved 74.97 points over 58 trading bars
Wave B moved 89.89 points over 193 trading bars
Wave C moved 150.33 points over 149 trading bars
Wave A was 30.05% the duration of wave B
Wave B moved 119.90% of wave A's movement
Wave A was 38.93% the duration of wave C
Wave C moved 200.52% of wave A's movement
The full inverted movement picture was this:
If we apply the data explicitly to the data from our 2022 wave A, wave B could last 647 trading days gaining 1,591.14 points placing the market top at 5,082.72. Wave C could then lose 2,660.98 points in 501 trading days.
******2018******
This next event began January 26, 2023. I have returned to daily bars for this scenario. Waves A and B looked like this:
Wave A moved 319.07 points over 44 trading days
Wave B moved 387.11 points over 121 trading days
Wave C moved 594.33 points over 65 trading days
Wave A was 36.36% the duration of wave B
Wave B moved 121.32% of wave A's movement
Wave A was 67.69% the duration of wave C
Wave C moved 186.27% of wave A's movement
The full movement was this:
Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 536 trading days gaining 1,609.96 points placing the market top at 5,101.54. Wave C could then lose 2,471.88 points in 288 trading days.
******2014******
This next event began July 24, 2014. I will use hourly trading bars for this example. Waves A and B looked like this:
Wave A moved 82.38 points over 73 trading hours
Wave B moved 110.25 points over 205 trading hours
Wave C moved 198.6 points over 129 trading hours
Wave A was 35.61% the duration of wave B
Wave B moved 133.83% of wave A's movement
Wave A was 56.59% the duration of wave C
Wave C moved 241.08% of wave A's movement
The full movement was this:
Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 548 trading days gaining 1,775.98 points placing the market top at 5,267.56. Wave C could then lose 3,199.23 points in 344 trading days.
******2011******
This next event began January 19, 2011. I will use hourly trading bars for this example. Waves A and B looked like this:
Wave A moved 23.34 points over 6 trading hours
Wave B moved 31.41 points over 22 trading hours
Wave C moved 26.17 points over 4 trading hours
Wave A was 27.27% % the duration of wave B
Wave B moved 134.58% of wave A's movement
Wave A was 150% the duration of wave C
Wave C moved 112.13% of wave A's movement
The full movement was this:
Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 715 trading days gaining 1,785.93 points placing the market top at 5,277.51. Wave C could then lose 1,488.01 points in 130 trading days.
******2005******
This next event began March 7, 2005. I will return to daily trading bars for this example and the rest after this point. Waves A and B looked like this:
Wave A moved 89.47 points over 31 trading days
Wave B moved 109.64 points over 73 trading days
Wave C moved 77.44 points over 50 trading days
Wave A was 42.47% the duration of wave B
Wave B moved 122.54% of wave A's movement
Wave A was 62.00% the duration of wave C
Wave C moved 86.55% of wave A's movement
The full movement was this:
Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 459 trading days gaining 1,626.15 points placing the market top at 5,117.73. Wave C could then lose 1,148.55 points in 314 trading days.
******2000******
This next event began March 24, 2000. Waves A and B looked like this:
Wave A moved 784.24 points over 639 trading days
Wave B moved 807.46 points over 1259 trading days
Wave C moved 909.3 points over 352 trading days
Wave A was 50.75% the duration of wave B
Wave B moved 102.96% of wave A's movement
Wave A was 181.53% the duration of wave C
Wave C moved 115.95% of wave A's movement
The full movement was this:
Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 384 trading days gaining 1,366.32 points placing the market top at 4,857.90. Wave C could then lose 1,538.70 points in 107 trading days.
******1990******
This next event began January 3, 1990. Waves A and B looked like this:
Wave A moved 40.76 points over 19 trading days
Wave B moved 49.95 points over 115 trading days
Wave C moved 75.27 points over 62 trading days
Wave A was 16.52% the duration of wave B
Wave B moved 122.55% of wave A's movement
Wave A was 30.65% the duration of wave C
Wave C moved 184.67% of wave A's movement
The full movement was this:
Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 1,180 trading days gaining 1,626.29 points placing the market top at 5,117.87. Wave C could then lose 2,450.64 points in 636 trading days.
******1979******
This next event began October 5, 1979. Waves A and B looked like this:
Wave A moved 13.1 points over 11 trading days
Wave B moved 21.16 points over 79 trading days
Wave C moved 25.99 points over 30 trading days
Wave A was 13.92% the duration of wave B
Wave B moved 161.53% of wave A's movement
Wave A was 36.67% the duration of wave C
Wave C moved 198.40% of wave A's movement
The full movement was this:
Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 1,401 trading days gaining 2,143.57 points placing the market top at 5,635.15. Wave C could then lose 2,632.85 points in 532 trading days.
******1968******
This next event began December 2, 1968. Waves A and B looked like this:
Wave A moved 40.76 points over 368 trading days
Wave B moved 53.13 points over 665 trading days
Wave C moved 60.78 points over 437 trading days
Wave A was 55.34% the duration of wave B
Wave B moved 130.35% of wave A's movement
Wave A was 84.21% the duration of wave C
Wave C moved 149.12% of wave A's movement
The full movement was this:
Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 352 trading days gaining 1,729.80 points placing the market top at 5,221.38. Wave C could then lose 1,978.88 points in 231 trading days.
******1965******
This next event began May 13, 1965. Waves A and B looked like this:
Wave A moved 9.95 points over 32 trading days
Wave B moved 13.99 points over 156 trading days
Wave C moved 22.44 points over 168 trading days
Wave A was 20.51% the duration of wave B
Wave B moved 140.60% of wave A's movement
Wave A was 19.05% the duration of wave C
Wave C moved 225.53% of wave A's movement
The full movement was this:
Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 950 trading days gaining 1,865.82 points placing the market top at 5,357.40. Wave C could then lose 2,992.87 points in 1,024 trading days.
Based on all of these instances, some are too far off to rhyme to our current situation when it comes to likely duration of wave B or top while others have options in play in the very near-term. With our current high 347 days into wave B, the next likely duration candidates are: 352, 384, 459, 536, 548, 647, 715, and 950. With only one top more than 300 points ago, nearby tops for wave B are at: 5,102, 5,118 (twice), 5,221, 5,267, 5,277, 5,357, and 5,635.
One of the historically similar instances possible in the near-term for both the duration and top are from 1968. A replication or near similar movement could place the top on next Monday at 5,221. This happens to be the day prior to the next CPI reading. A CPI increase could further delay or altogether push rate cuts off the table this year. If this is the exact top, the bottom could occur 231 trading days later near 3,242.50. This level aligns very near my original forecasted low below 3,300 (granted I figured the top would have been in well before now). The bottom could be around February 10, 2025 which is also in my semi-wide ballpark of the original market bottom forecasted on July 4, 2022.
The highest retracement for wave B's movement in relation to wave C is 161% from 1979, while most reside in the 119%-135% range. We have currently retraced (over extended) around 125% of wave A's movement.
We shall see what occurs as time moves on. If a drastic falls is still set to occur, it will take cascading events likely to the finance and technology sectors to make it so.
SPY Channel BreakThe S&P500 opened and closed below the lower support line of an uptrend channel. This in itself is excuse to sell or go short, but generally you want to see 2-3 days of price below or above a channel before considering it a trend shift. Most likely first level of price support to watch for if price does head lower is $500. Nice round number and a psychological level for traders especially going into the end of the week. If bulls are still serious about the bull market they'll defend $500.
The PPO trend indicator shows the green PPO line trending below the purple signal line which indicates a short-term bearish bias in price. The trend would be considered bearish in the medium to long-term if both lines cross below the horizontal 0 level.
The TSI momentum indicator shows the green RSI line trending below the purple signal line which indicates a short-term neutral trend or slowdown in momentum. The RSI line crossing below the horizontal 50 level also indicates a short-term slowdown in momentum. The green RSI line is also trading below its lower Bollinger Band; in general you want to be short when the RSI line is below the lower BBand.
With the hot inflation numbers that came out traders are probably starting to realize that there likely won't be a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June, and maybe no cuts at all this year. The Fed is responsible for maintaining steady prices and low unemployment. Until unemployment rises the Federal Reserve is not likely to cut rates with persistent inflation.
SPX setting up positively ahead of tomorrow's CPI releaseSPX setting up positively ahead of tomorrow's CPI release. IF stochastic can hold in its upper quartile, an underlying positive momentum will be present.
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SPX500 setting up bullishly pre-cash openSPX500 setting up bullishly pre-cash open.
This video is intended for the users of Stratos Markets Limited, Stratos Trading Pty. Limited and Stratos Global LLC, (collectively “FXCM Group”).
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Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
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Real yield in uptrendThe weekly real yield is in uptrend, which should act as support for the USDOLLAR and as a headwind for the risk markets.
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Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
ES1! S&P500 PREPARE NEXT WEEK - IMPORTANT PRICE POINTS - DAILYThanks a lot you the likes, really appreciate! It is not financial advice just recreational trading idea sharing
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- 5332.5: price point identified as potential optimal entry for short direction trade. Depends on the velovity of the market when if hitting that price point again.
- 5168.75 to 5190.75: probable important zone where the price can pullback up or break with strength.
- 4938.25: Possible down important price point as we can only look behind and in prices lower than the actual price. Above the actual price it is not possible to see where the market can go. So market will do what it has to do if evolving above 5332.5 .
- Some other zone down there but it is not to analyze yet has there is too many important price points above it.
Probably observing what the market does from Monday to Wednesday and see which entries can be done on Thursday/Friday for next week.
SP500 Expecting a dropI think SP500 is on the way to perform a great drop. Looking on H4 timeframe we can see a clean break below main trendline and a retest of it. I think today we will see some volatility around the beginning of the NY Session. I expect a fake moves first to the upside to grab some liquity, next we should see a drop till support zone around $5130
Potential bearish dropPrice is reacting off an overlap resistance level and could reverse from this level to our take profit
Entry: 5247.64
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement
Stop loss: 5265.25
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Take profit: 5220.30
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection
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