S&P 500 (D1) - Rolling Over, Eyeing March LowSPX looking ready to roll over back to downside as bear market bullish correction is about played out.
Volume profile indicates downside conviction on initial dump down from Feb-March, with increasing volume on the down move, then declining volume on the upward correction currently playing out.
Price action is currently at the top of a rising/ascending wedge, right near the point where one might expect the break of wedge support confirming the sell signal, assuming a daily close below the bottom of rising/ascending wedge pattern's support line. The top of the wedge is further capped by the 61.8% Fibo retracement level from the Feb-March downside move/dump.
Initial target: just above the recent March low - around 2,225 - with additional downside targets around 2,000 and again near 1,850.
Stop above the 61.8% Fibo, around 2,933/55 zone (given market's propensity for volatility at present evidenced by elevated VIX levels, it may be prudent to keep a wide stop closer to the 2,955 area just to be sure).
Initial Reward-Risk Ratio in area of about 2:1.
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Please note: the above is merely a description of personal preference re: this trading setup and in no way constitutes advice of any kind. Info provided is for educational and/or entertainment purposes only and is not intended to be held out or construed as any kind of professional opinion in any way shape or form; rather, merely a non-professional, non-licensed, amateur description of a personal trade for personal purposes. Different people have different risk tolerances and objectives, and as a result, you should not take action on anything disseminated herein. If you wish to risk your own capital in the capital markets, see an appropriate investment professional licensed in your jurisdiction.
Sp500short
SP500 Short term - back to trendlineSP500 broke a trend line and now the retest is running on. In next few days I would expect movement back to default trendline which was set in march. I dont believe we can expect movement ''back to normal values''. Retesting supports would be the best what could happend and all this movement seems to be like a temporary bottom.
I tried to sketch the pattern though the EW - I dont say this is a valid count
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SP500- Game over?In my last SP500 analysis, I've spoken about the 2900 strong sell zone. The index has reversed exactly from this area and now is trading at 2800 rising trend line support.
I believe this support will give up and a drop for SP is imminent.
I drop to 2200 is definitively in the cards in the next period, but a new low for this bearish market is not out of the question.
Prices under 2900-3000 should be sold for at least a target of 2200 in the medium term
SP500/SPY Update 4-20-2020We gapped down overnight under the support/resistance line (red) on spy. If we overtake that line today it's certainly bullish, but if we don't - we may start having our move down. Oil collapsing and various downgrades today may shift sentiment, but they can't be counted on.
The obvious target on spy is about 248 which would fill the lower gap (pink line). There's also a gap at 223, but I don't think we'll go that low so soon.
There are quite a few more gaps above on spy which gives me more reasons to think a double correction is probable - IF we start trending lower from here. Let's see how the day/week goes.
Good luck all
Sunship
IS THE BEAR ENDED? NO, IT JUST STARTED - SP500Good Day Traders!
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Our S&P500 setup:
Rules:
1. SHORT ONLY when price broke down the trendline and retest its resistance.
2. SHORT ONLY when bearish candlestick formed in 1D chart.
3. DO NOTHING when above #1 & #2 are not met.
TP 1 : level near 2500
TP 2 : level near 2200
TP 3 : level near 1800
CL : closed above 3000
RR > 5
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SP500- Time to sell?Yesterday SP500 dropped from the strong resistance/sell zone.
I believe the downtrend will resume and the index is preparing for another drop.
I bearish as long as the price is under 2900 and only a close above would give me a reason to reconsider.
Sell rallies can be a good strategy
SP500 - final leg up below 2930?My very short term view: 15min candles
- we are in the last 5th minor wave of bigger C corrective wave
- fib 0,618 is at 2930
- till end ot this week (17-4-2020) the top of the correction...or call it bear market rally should be in (if not..and we close for 3 days in a row above 2930, then something else is going on and this view has to be corrected)
S&P 500 ($SPY, SPX500) going down this week!Even though it's typical to see bear rallies in bear markets since nothing shoots down in a straight line forever, there are technical reasons why this week will likely be red for the SPX500. First let's talk about the declining volume while the price is violently rallying. This divergence between volume and price cannot be ignored.
We also have the hidden bearish divergence between the price, RSI, and Stoch RSI. Remember that the hidden bearish divergence indicates underlying weakness and it's typically formed during retracements in a downtrend. These are the rallies you'll want to sell into (and short to ride the next wave down).
There is also the death cross forming between the 50 MA and 200 MA.
Furthermore, the 0.5 Fib level is sitting right there at the top of the latest daily candle.
Lastly I'll add that if we get a gap down candle on Monday Apr 13 this will represent an abandoned baby candlestick pattern (bearish).
Will likely be buying the SPXS leveraged inverse ETF during pre-market. I also have some bear credit spread options on the $SPY that expire this week.
Stay safe out there traders, peace...✌🏼☮️
S&P 500 Is Printing Bearish Elliot Wave PatternThe S&P 500 massive decline and the subsequent rally makes Elliot Wave sense.
The coronavirus 35% sell-off was a classic five-wave EW impulse pattern. According to the theory, this implies that at least a three-wave correction should be expected.
In SPX's case, the 28% rally that follows the decline is in three-wave so far and taking the shape of an a-b-c zigzag corrective pattern.
Not only that, but the price has also already retraced 50% of the decline and testing an important weekly resistance level.
I'm not interested in catching the top, so I will wait for price action to confirm this scenario. The breaks of the counter trend line and previous swing low at 2656 area will be a good confirmation that the bears are ready for the run.
Price has the potential to move below the previous low in the anticipated decline.
Do you think S&P 500 has already bottomed? Let me know your view in the comment.
SP500- Entered a strong sell zoneWith a 40% drop from the end of February, SP500 is in a clear downtrend.
After reaching a low of 2200, the index rose and is now entered a strong sell zone that extends to 2900.
I expect the correction to be over soon and a new leg down could follow.
I favor sell trades as long as the price is under 2900.
S&P500: bull trap?Technically speaking, yesterday S&P500 closed with a shooting star candlestick pattern on daily chart, which was a warning signal for bulls...
...today the market continues going higher and it might produce better price to short the equity market.
The COVID-19 pandemic is still out there killing people and lot's of industries (e.g. airlines, hotels or cruise lines, etc.) are not working properly...
...companies cut dividends, while people loose their jobs (more than 6,6 million initial jobless claims in US came out last week).
If you ask me, whether I think the price formed on 23rd of March this year (around 2200) is the bottom for the equity market, my answer would be: definitely not.
What's happening now, seems to me more like "FOMO correction" move, rather than "V" shape economic recovery.
Hopefully I am wrong, but in one thing I am pretty sure: "building - is not breaking"...
...so joining bears from around 2780-2800 price zone seems logical for me.
Keep in mind, that it's important to follow predefined goal and rules when trading.
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SP500 WILL BREAK PREV LOW. LET'S SEE.Good Day Traders!
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We have been stop out on SP500 for quite few times. So we have decided to wait and monitor SP500 since the volatility is high, and ACTION TAKEN by FED is unpredictable.
So HOPEFULLY this time we are right. We will start shorting now between level 2570 - 2620. TP is to break PREV LOW. RISK REWARD IS GREAT!
However, do note that this is a long term trade idea. We might be trading in between the DOWNTREND. DO SET UR CL AND short term TP.
Plan your trade, trade your plan.
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Can you call the bottom? S&P 500.Hello friends,
Hope this find you well...
As things are heating up with the RONA. :)
People suggest that we have seen the bottom already.
I beg to differ, there will be two more waves to the bottom.
My idea is the bottom is the circled area on the chart.
Happy trading friends.
Disclaimer - This NOT financial advice, just chart speculation.