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Sp500short

S&P 500 overlaid with Shiller PE ratioHello all, thanks for viewing. After re-reading William Poundstone's "How to Predict the Unpredictable" I thought I would chart the Shiller PE ratio on the S&P 500. I did this because I have general feeling is that things are a little over-extended. In his book, he points out that in the past 130 years, if people in the US stockmarket had sold their stocks (and invested in cash instruments) when Shiller P/E rose above 28 and bought in again when it dipped below 13 would have avoided the 2 most significant market crashes in that time, thus magnifying their year-on-year returns. He also discussed other PE limits, which involve more active trading and greater returns. Please forgive the inaccuracy of my overlay, I tried to place the data points as accurately as possible for February and August each year (www.multpl.com). From this data PE rose above 28 in December 2016 / Jan 2017 and has remained above that level. My knowledge of equities isn't that strong but I do understand that when PE ratios grow, there is less money to share among investors and dividends shrink. When PE ratios get towards the higher end, investors may come to rely more on growth in capital gains as the main source of returns. This may add more volatility into the market. Increased volatility has been detected since 28 was exceeded: www.marketwatch.com If competing investments come to be more attractive due to increased interest rates and / or low risk instruments then there may be capital outflows from equities. Maybe I am a "glass half empty" kind of guy but when I hear multiple reports of "the longest bull-run in history but also read parallel analysis that the market is undervalued (www.marketwatch.com) my first reaction is to get sceptical. Disclaimer (for those that need one); I am not a professional, a financial adviser, or your Mom, so please do your own research. This is published for my own education and I have no position in the US market and am not considering taking one. The market is currently in an upswing. There is no way of telling how long the market will continue up for.
SP:SPXShort
by flyinkiwi10
S&P 500 Index Set To Cool Down For Labor DayBased on derivative analysis. I am projecting Minute wave 3 just completed and we have entered the corrective wave 4. The wave should end over the next 2.5 trading days. I project the bottom will occur within the first 2.5 hours on September 4, 2018. The bottom should also occur between 2870.91-2886.50. All of these targets are based off of the moves that have occurred over the course of Intermediate wave 3. This wave began at the end of June. My projection is wrong if the index breaks above the recent record high of 2916.50 before the end of trading on Friday August 31. If this occurs, We are still in Minute wave 3 (and that top is most likely about to occur). I am closely monitoring the index. Intermediate wave 3 will end in September, most likely near the end of the month. Intermediate wave 4 should end no later than the second week in October. The final wave and major market top for now should occur within the first two weeks of November and potentially a result of something below. When the US markets fall, I would attribute it to US election results (perception of potential impeachment attempts), failure to reach trade deal with China, a major geopolitical conflict/war, North Korea issues, or failed passage of the already agreed upon trade deals with the EU, Mexico, or Canada.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
SP500 at end of growth? huge collapse to come? Long term vision When I fit the chart in the Fibonacci sequence, I conclude that it exactly fits in the sequence as how I show it here and as how my experience has learned me that charts behave concerning the Fibonacci sequence. - The price went up from '0' to 700 points between 1980 and 1996 = Fibonacci 0% to 78,6% - Than the price went further to 1200 points between 1996 and 2012 = Fibonacci 78,6% to 61,8% - The growth continues further to 1600 points between 2012 and 2013 = Fibonacci 61,8% to 50% - The growth continues further to 1900 points between 2013 and 2014 = Fibonacci 50% to 38,2% - The growth continues further to 2300 points between 2014 and 2017 = Fibonacci 38,2% to 23,6% - And the price broke 23,6% so it will continue rising till the sequence has ended!! and that is 3000 points! > What will happen when 3000 points is reached? There are two options: 1: The price keeps on rising. Than potential = 4800 points ! 2: The price collabs and retraces. Than potential = to fall back to 2300 / 1900 / 1600 / 1200 / 700 TARGET 1 NOW: 3000 points and take profit. So, short- term is LONG! THAN WAIT THAN MAKE A NEW PLAN: LONG OR SHORT for the long- term Thank you for following and Succes with trading ! Richard from Rich.Exclusive.Trading
FX:SPX500
by Rich_Exclusive_Trading
Markets Set To Fall For Remainder Of Month; S&P 500 DropI was slightly premature in my previous analysis. My data was lacking and I took a leap. The data is finally in and the drop will occur as projected. We will watch the market drop for the rest of the month before it flies high into the fall. The pink box with the black outline is the projected bottom for the coming drop. My more realistic zone is above the trend line (purple background with thick red border). The projection box has the bottom between July 27 and July 31. The bottom should occur below 2797.42 and above 2764.90. My zone to watch has the bottom no lower than 2781 if the trendline acts as support. Possible flirtation and a quick drop below this support is always possible. Look to a drop in this area as a great buying opportunity. EXTERNAL FACTORS The external factors which may lead to this drop could be weaker than expected outlooks during the next week of earnings season. Lack of trade negotiations between the United States, its allies and China could also lead to the quick drop. After this drop, I expect the market to gain 9-11% through October 2018. This could be due to trade deals finally panning out. Stay tuned for more projections. I am preparing for the major market drop that is coming. I will have more projections and articles out detailing the specifics and the stocks that forecast market tops before they occur. I have a great one that has been accurate since 1987!
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
8
E-mini S&P500 in phase of uptrend. (26/07/2018)Sure the "Flat" model and Bull's "Cumulation Balance" on ES is over. Near month, Bulls can retest & breakthrough the historical peak 2884.50 I decisively, take a long position for 2900.00; "Short term target": 2900.00 - 3000.00. "Middle term targets": 3200.00 - 3300.00; "Long term targets": 3400.00 - 3500.00. Subscribe! Join me! «« «« «« «« «« Hold Like! »» »» »» »» »» (If you have questions, comments, write, reply thoroughly!) You're welcome!!! Best regards, trader Igor.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by youngfedor
SP500 CAN RISE TO 2800You can see that SP500 is trying to rise to 2800 points but there is a strong resistence in 2738. But the pattern working right now is showing the posibility of break the 2738 resistence and rise to 2793 (at lest) or few more until 2800 points. Support Line is going to third confirmation and if this confirmation work, then is so very probable that SP500 rise to 2800 points. The you can go in first stage with PUT Future Options to 2700 strike, sold in the first droping, wait for a correction of the drop and buy more puts and wait for new drop and sold your puts.... and go on, again and again. When SP500 will be near to 2650, stop buy puts and buy Calls. It can be work well. But, first watch what happen Sunday in the night or Monday in the morning.
FX:SPX500
by VladimirMendoza
SPX500 is nearly 20% drop...SPX500 is nearly 20% drop. D1 momentum candle indicates a decreasing trend. The upper level of the parallel channel drawn on the ATR axis (orange line) is a resistance to the exchange rate. Also, it can be seen that the exchange rate is the last part of a double-rising correction wave. The last wave target price is 2744 usd. From this level, I wait for a double downward wave. The target price for this wave structure is 2292 usd. So from the current level to nearly 20% fall.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by meszaros
S&P500 short target 2610I invest in Crypto currencies and I trade CFD's. When you want to invest in crypto, I advise you to buy 'real coins' because on long term that will give you far more profit than speculate the chart with CFD's. I have bought XRP-Ripple, Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, ReddCoin, FeatherCoin, Adcoin ( ACC ), Bunny Token and looking for others every day! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- What about my ' Cycle phenomenon' ? read here: My main strategy is called 'cycle-trading'. After years of learning and practicing after I bought a teaching-package from a visionair, I found a way of how to trade successful with CFD's on the stock-market. Every stock is following an certain cycle which repeats itself. So, movements are often appearing in the same percentage, aswel long as short. This cycles appear at all levels; when you analyse the chart at 1 month, 1 week, 1 day, 1 hour. (others I don't use). This is the case, because all in life is build by the fibonacci sequence. When you analyse the chart, you'll also see the stock market is behaving itself as the fibonacci sequence. But, still the most difficult part and what it's all about, is where does a long or a short start? and which point is telling you that the cycle is started, so that you know it will probably go to the next fibonacci resistance? .... therefore I have developed some own indicators! The exact positions of where to open, to close and the stop loss position and take profit position is very important to be successful with trading! My strategy is to never trade on volatile markets. You will lose your money when you do! Trade on technical-chart analysis! not on news and volatility! One of my other strategies is that trades are only interesting and ‘safe’ to open when: you can possibly lose 1/3rd of the possible profit. So; when you set the indicators after analysing resistances, and you can lose 100 but win 300, it is worth the try! How do I decide to open a position or not? First I analyse: - sentiment on the market > are people in buy mode or short mode - I have some own created indicators, some I show in my charts. Therefor I use the fibonacci sequence. My indicators tell to open a position or not and in combination with other own created indicators I decide where to place the stop loss and take profit positions. - and this own indicators tell me when probably a new long position starts or a new short > these are the positions where I place my orders! or open directly. - and again other own created indicators tell me how far long or short it probably goes. The take profit and stop loss positions are other positions than the resistances in the market! - the moving-averages and bollinger-bands are very important indicators also. They are helping a lot! by making decisions. And that is Why I win more than I lose in the end. Patience is everything, we’ll wait for the right moment! But don't forget; trading means investing. Sometimes you lose more than you win in the beginning of a period! Most of the times the sentiment changes on Monday! please consider that when you start a position on Monday. Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday are on steady markets normally calm trading days. Than, my strategies work at their best! Don't forget to follow me, so you get updated when I post new analysis. Also read my account and the 'status updates' to be informed. Thank you for following and Succes with trading ! Richard from Rich.Exclusive.Trading
FX:SPX500Short
by Rich_Exclusive_Trading
S&P500 short targets: 2.592,80 / 2.533,00 or long 2.689,5I invest in Crypto currencies and I trade CFD's. When you want to invest in crypto, I advise you to buy 'real coins' because on long term that will give you far more profit than speculate the chart with CFD's. I have bought XRP-Ripple, Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, ReddCoin, FeatherCoin, Adcoin ( ACC ), Bunny Token and looking for NEO! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- What about my ' Cycle phenomenon' ? read here: My main strategy is called 'cycle-trading'. After years of learning and practicing after I bought a teaching-package from a visionair, I found a way of how to trade successful with CFD's on the stock-market. Every stock is following an certain cycle which repeats itself. So, movements are often appearing in the same percentage, aswel long as short. This cycles appear at all levels; when you analyse the chart at 1 month, 1 week, 1 day, 1 hour. (others I don't use). This is the case, because all in life is build by the fibonacci sequence. When you analyse the chart, you'll also see the stock market is behaving itself as the fibonacci sequence. But, still the most difficult part and what it's all about, is where does a long or a short start? and which point is telling you that the cycle is started, so that you know it will probably go to the next fibonacci resistance? .... therefore I have developed some own indicators! The exact positions of where to open, to close and the stop loss position and take profit position is very important to be successful with trading! My strategy is to never trade on volatile markets. You will lose your money when you do! Trade on technical-chart analysis! not on news and volatility! One of my other strategies is that trades are only interesting and ‘safe’ to open when: you can possibly lose 1/3rd of the possible profit. So; when you set the indicators after analysing resistances, and you can lose 100 but win 300, it is worth the try! How do I decide to open a position or not? First I analyse: - sentiment on the market > are people in buy mode or short mode - I have some own created indicators, some I show in my charts. Therefor I use the fibonacci sequence. My indicators tell to open a position or not and in combination with other own created indicators I decide where to place the stop loss and take profit positions. - and this own indicators tell me when probably a new long position starts or a new short > these are the positions where I place my orders! or open directly. - and again other own created indicators tell me how far long or short it probably goes. The take profit and stop loss positions are other positions than the resistances in the market! - the moving-averages and bollinger-bands are very important indicators also. They are helping a lot! by making decisions. And that is Why I win more than I lose in the end. Patience is everything, we’ll wait for the right moment! But don't forget; trading means investing. Sometimes you lose more than you win in the beginning of a period! Most of the times the sentiment changes on Monday! please consider that when you start a position on Monday. Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday are on steady markets normally calm trading days. Than, my strategies work at their best! Don't forget to follow me, so you get updated when I post new analysis. Also read my account and the 'status updates' to be informed. Thank you for following and Succes with trading ! Richard from Rich.Exclusive.Trading
FX:SPX500Short
by Rich_Exclusive_Trading