SP in serious problems The sp 500 is making a rising wedge and that means the bullish trend is showing weakness and in the daily chart the time isn't good the
Sp500short
S&P500 SHORT First buy to upper trendline
and bounces and sidaways at the bottom
next week might flooded
First BUY
Second SELL from upper resistance zone
S&P Short Idea For The WeekAnother short idea we entered today on the S&P.
Appears to be in an unconfirmed descending triangle. Target zone is around 3575 mark
Great Depression SP500 to 1833Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller, founder of hedge fund Duquesne Capital, recently said that “Our central case is a hard landing by the end of 23. I will be stunned if we don’t have a recession in ’23.”
Even if a catastrophic recession somehow doesn’t hit the world, high inflation, soaring commodity costs, and plummeting currency values worldwide will ensure global economies will continue to struggle.
The real question isn’t whether a downturn is coming. It’s how long it will last.
Is a “dead decade” on the horizon?
While most investors are used to recessions that take a year or two to recover from, there’s also a chance this upcoming meltdown could be a much longer-lasting affair.
SPX Short Short on S&P500. Hit top of channel on shorter time frames and not able to break through recently broken support, now resistance.
Entered at 3689.
Looks like two weeks left of the bear market nowThe end is coming in focus. We have re-adjusted some key points and placed the next estimates on the chart. The biggest question was the placement of Minor 1 (yellow), once Minor 2 jumped. We are breaking down the future on the hourly chart to make it easier to follow along.
We are in Minor wave 3, a day later than originally expected. The index dropped after the inflation report as expected, but the nearly 200 point rise was surprising. We called the low on the morning of the inflation report the end of Minor 1 and the top occurred early Friday to end Minor 2. We are now in Minor 3.
Based on waves ending in 553, models have highest agreement on a length of 1, 2, and 4 days long. Second highest agreement at 5 days and then it drops to 3 and 7 days. Movement extensions based on waves ending in 553 have 1st quartile movement at 124.33%, median at 158.475%, and 3rd quartile at 1.7654%. These levels are plotted with the light blue lines on the chart.
Based on waves ending in 53, models have highest agreement on 4 days, second highest on 5 days, then 7 days, 3 days, and 1 day rounding out the top 5 potential lengths. Movement extensions on the same data has the quartiles at 147.99%, 167.45%, and 201.7%.
I am looking for a target of about 5 trading days. My models do not count the day Minor 2 ended (Friday October 14) as day 1. This means day 5 would be this coming Friday. Five trading days consist of 32.5 trading hours, and I will round this wave out to around 35 trading hours. Six of those hours has finished and occurred on Friday.
Minor wave 3 is composed of 5 Minute waves. Minute wave 1 tends to account for 21% of the overall length of the wave it resides in, Minute wave 2 is around 11%, 3 is 40%, 4 is 9%, and 5 is 25%. Based on these values and an estimated total for Minor wave 3 to be near 35 trading hours, I am projecting Minute wave 1 to last around 7 hours, meaning we may bottom within the first 2 hours on Monday October 17. We would then rise over the next 4 trading hours. I rounded this out to align near the end of trading on Monday, meaning we could top and end Minute wave 2 late tomorrow. Minute wave 3 could last 14 hours. This means the market will likely drop on Tuesday and Wednesday (accounting for around 13 hours). Thursday could begin Minute wave 4 up for around 3 hours. This means we may start Thursday on an upward trajectory but top midday and begin the final wave 5 decline. I have wave 5 running through the close on Friday. These dates, times and projected levels are outlined on the chart above.
I have also adjusted the end points and levels for Minor waves 4 and 5. Minor wave will be the bottom of the market for 2022.
We will see how it pans out but I think the bear market is nearly over….for now. We have done well forecasting these past few months and will see what the future holds. The biggest indicator to our system would be the indeed short-term bottom occurring around the end of this month and a massive reversal to follow. Let us know what you think
Forecast SP500Good day, traders! Don't forget to put your thumbs up and write your comment if you like the idea
Target for the SP500 lies in the green zone (aprox 3326 - 3255). That's where we're heading after the US inflation data,
It amounted to 8.2%, and despite its decline (previous month 8.3%), the data came out higher than expected (8.1%).
It is very interesting what world news will appear in the near future. It becomes clear that the first defaults appear in the global financial system. And sooner or later, defaults will go not only for companies, but also for countries that are mired in debt.
I also came across some interesting statistics.
Look:
Portfolio investors lost 27% this year - this is the worst year in the last 100 years, i.e. the results can be called historical
DISCLAIMER:
The opinion of the author may not coincide with yours! Keep this in mind and consider in your trading transactions before making a trading decision.
SP500 SP500 index very very bad scenario. If fed will continue to gain interest rate, this time maybe we will see big recession! This is not sell signal, this is just one scenario i see on this chart.
Up and Down For 3 more weeksThis chart lays out the estimated Minor waves in Intermediate 5 as mentioned in my weekend analysis. These estimates place:
The bottom of Minor 1 around 3601.23 today for a total wave 1 loss around 205.68;
The top of Minor 2 around 3740.37 on October 12th for a gain around 139.77;
The bottom of Minor 3 around 3474.12 on October 18th for a loss around 266.25;
The top of Minor 4 around 3555.33 on October 20th for a gain around 81.21;
The final bottom for Minor 5, Intermediate 5, Primary 5, and Cycle A around 3340.36 on October 26th for a loss around 214.97.
These estimates nearly align with all levels from the other day but there is some give in take in them. We will see how close these levels as well as everything mentioned in the weekend analysis occur.
SP500 CONTINUES ITS DOWNTRENDAfter the Wednesday rebound, SP500 went into downturn again in Thursday, amid investors fears of economic slowdown and further interest increase.
The benchmark hit new low on Wednesday, before rebound, of 3602, which was not tested yesterday, but if the downtrend keeps its momentum, this level might be tested and even levels of 3480 might be reached. In the opposite scenario, if the trend reverses, the price might reach its high of 4160.
All technical indicators are confirming the bearish trend, with MACD histogram below 0 line and RSI approaching oversold zone of the 30 line.
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SP500 - ES1! targeting the CenterlineThe pullback from yesterday did not last very long.
The overnight market is pushing price down again.
Currently the move has halted at the 50% range of the Up-Leg.
The simple target will be the Centerline, further downside is open.
Almost done with Intermediate 3 down
Thinking we may have ended Minor wave 4 (yellow numbers) today with a strong jump. Expecting the GDP report to confirm for everyone we are in a recession tomorrow. The yellow lines are the historical quartiles for waves ending in 535, while the light blue lines are the same for waves ending in 35. The slightly longer lines are extensions of Intermediate wave 3 from wave 1.
I tend to favor the more specific data so I am considering the 535 data slightly more than the 35 data. We are looking at strong data for this fifth wave to last 2-4 days. If we do not go higher than today’s high, tomorrow would be day 1. Our original projection for Intermediate wave 3 had it ending on October 4. That would mean this wave could last for 4 days. I think Monday is most likely but we will count the waves down as we go. From a day’s perspective, waves 1 and 3 were equal in length. From an hourly perspective, wave 1 was 30 trading hours while wave 3 was only 27. This could put a maximum length of wave 5 at no more than 27 trading hours which is October 4th at 1430 eastern time (meaning until 1530). I think getting done before this is easily doable.
The levels to watch for Intermediate wave 3 based on Intermediate wave 1 are between 3477.78 and 3595.96. The levels to watch for Minor wave 5 based on Minor wave 3 are between 3483.30 and 3585.24. These Minor wave levels likely help narrow our target zone for the bottom to be less than 3585 and greater than 3525. I would plan an exit around 3550 or see how we move along the way.
Why the SP500 signals recession...Looking at the SP500 on the weekly view, it is clear to see that there is a downtrend, although I believe this is just the beginning of the drawdown.
We can see that after it reached the high of 4800 in Jan22, it dropped to around 4200 before forming a small series of green candles of recovery. *This is a pattern we have seen multiple times in the past before a market collapse. Please scroll down further*
After this initial 'drop 1' , we enter what I am calling 'drop 2', we have already seen a continued series of red candles which I believe to keep dropping massively - this isn't a hot take by any means, especially with many talking about the UK housing market bubble ready to pop, Putin talking of nuclear weapons, China potentially tipping into a recession from their housing market and finally with us just coming out of Covid.
sell short for pullback 1 or 2 target up to youoverbought short term
up much coz of coolinginflation while the fED SAID NOTHING ABOUT
S&P500 at the Warning LineAccording to the Rules of the Medianlines (Pitchforks), there is a high potential of a reaction from the Warning Lines (here WL1).
On strong Trends, price will trade through it and down the the ML (Medianline).
Be prepared for both scenarios.
SP500- Doomed for a 500 points dropIn my yesterday analysis, I said that SP500 is facing a very strong sell zone above 4.1k and a drop is possible from now on.
CPI data triggered this drop and the index fell hard putting in an immense bearish engulfing on our daily chart.
I expect a resumption of the trend that started at the beginning of the year and is very possible for SP to visit the pre-pandemic high at 3.4k zone.
At this moment the price is 3950, just above confluence support given by the horizontal trend line and the rising trend line started in June and a corrective rally can follow.
This rally should be considered a good selling opportunity by traders and ONLY a break back above 4.2k would change this strongly bearish outlook
Best of luck!
Mihai Iacob
SP500 - The CPI And The MedianlineaPerfect Re-Test.
Interesting enough CPI news pushed price up to the L-MLH and immediately rejected it.
Thant's crazy, but it's no wonder.
Allen Andrews Action/Reaction just works. Why? It's the law of nature.
Newton exposed it, Allen Andrews brought it to the markets.
More red to come, slight reprieve next weekHere is the plan for the near term. Still looks like we are in the tail end of Intermediate wave 1 inside of Primary wave 5. Looks like we are in for big drops after the Fed meeting, but the inflation report may remain tame in the short-term.
The estimated path for the rest of Primary wave 5 is here with the turnover occurring around US elections:
Here is the estimated path for the rest of the correction/recession.
Still hoping for the final bottom by March 2025, could be sooner or later of course.
SPY bulltrap again bef plunge;BO of 400/380 may see 350/320/280This is a SPY weekly chart after the Friday FED speech signaling continued hawkishness till inflation drops to 2%. Spy has a history of making bulltraps (higher highs on this weekly chart) before plunging as seen in my several boxes. It was rejected by the black downtrend line from the 476.44 ATH (see black falling wedge) & also rejected by the horizontal neckline of the H&S from top at around 330.
BULLISH SCENARIO: If 362.17 June low is the bottom for this ABC correction, then SPY should make a higher low at either the psychological 400 or 380 (previous H&S destination & also the maximum Fib 0.786 retracement of the latest June rally). From here a new ATH is coming in 4Q2022 when inflation drops lower that 4% & the FED pivots.
BEARISH CASE: SPY will not hold the 362.17 low if 400 & 380 fails. The final targets of this ABC correction may be the ff:
*350 which is the 1.618 FIB EXT of this ABC, the 0.50 retracement from pandemic low to ATH
*320 which is the 2.0 FIB EXT of ABC, the 0.618 retracement from pandemic to ATH & also near the 0.382 retracement from 2009 bottom to ATH
*280 which is the 2.618 FIB EXT of ABC, the 0.786 retracement from pandemic low to ATH & also near the 0.5 retracement from 2009 Bottom to ATH
These estimates should be considered as +/- zones & not exact levels. The pandemic low of 211.11 is not
likely to be retested.
Not trading advice
will we get an end of the day sell offoverbought stoch rsi and showing a bearish harmonic pattern, looking for a D leg sell off
