SP500Playing around with this count on the LT weekly chart from b4 2000 dot com bubble. SP500 looks like a very clean 5 up & 5 wave down pattern 1 after another. I am sure that if we dial down into the LTF we could find many complex Flat & zig zag corrections but zoomed out everything looks pretty clean.
The W3 that we are currently in lines up with 4600 rough target. I know a W4 is coming but the fib 1.618 lvl is really a better target for W3. So maybe SP500 continues up for now until 4600 and after that W4 will ensue. Hard to tell but I don't see W4 forming as of yet even with all the bearish inflation narratives.
Sp500signals
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SP500 - SHORT; Nothing but Shorts (SELL!!) here!A ~25% decline from here should be rather quick and uneventful. However, such a decline is likely to be just the first leg on a long road to a full ~70% decline by the end of this full cycle. - Which would be nothing more than a garden variety return to the Historic Norm ! The same goes for all US Indexes and those who are historically informed (or reviewed the evidence, presented in virtually every single recent post) should not be surprised at all.
The Carry Trade Currencies - and equivalents relative to the VIX post;
You know(!!) you are in a bubble ...... When:
The funding a 36-year stream of expected inflation-adjusted spending requires over 38 years of money up-front;
Every single decile of S&P 500 components is at record valuation extremes; www.hussmanfunds.com
The amount of leverage in the system (U.S. equity markets) is now easily the highest in history, by any measure, not just in absolute terms! (relative to GDP, etc. Margin Debt/GDP = Margin Debt/Market Cap x Market Cap/GDP Showing insane over-valuation across the board!);
In a world where speculators now value the stock of bitcoin at one-fifth the value of the entire U.S. monetary base;
The current SPAC mania is identical to the South Sea Bubble in as much as: "Let them see not what they do!";
In an economy with $11 trillion in corporate debt at $58 trillion in equity market capitalization;
When U.S. Market Capitalization exceeds 263% of U.S. GDP (the norm, not the low, being 78%);
Anyway, this is likely a Double Top here.
SP500 - The Phantom Menace (Episode I)As can be seen in the graph, after the pandemic, it collected rapidly and it seems that it will continue the rising wedge movement to the end.
If the targets for the future will not be 4000+, we can see a very sharp decline as a result of the rising wedge formation from here. In this sense, it would not be wrong to expect the prices to fall back to 3000 levels due to the formation target. However, this 25% decrease would be a disaster for the financial markets.
The place to enter the game is as important as where and when we exit the game. It is useful to be careful, especially in light of these inflationary expectations. TVC:SPX
It contains only personal views and opinions. Does not contain legal investment advice ...
SP500 Lifetime OpportunityHi there,
SP500 at the moment is a clear buy with target above 4000
If we pay attention to the DXY chart, we are starting a uptrend but still on sideways moment, which SP500 due to many retails shorting it, has been making new highs every week, as long as dollar is weak it will keep doing it, but dollar is soon ending this sideways market to start an uptrend.
SP500 then will top at that moment
If we look at the elliot wave theory, we are in the final phase, Blow off, close to a top to begin then a new trend.
This is a long term view, if your looking to sell it, sell only at the mentioned wave 5, near it.
Good luck
S&P 500 Long PositionS&P 500 Long Position
🔵 Entry: $3,886.0
🟢 TP & RR: $3,929.1 (2.44)
⛔ Stop Loss: $3,868.3
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
✔️ Market Flow Green
✔️ Higher low on lower time frame
📝 I am expecting a small retracement upwards before price continues to go down. The second order I am looking to open is for a short at the $3,914.0 level.
S&P500 - The "Mayan Calendar" Chart Fearing an upcoming crash / correction I've been looking at all the key indexes etc, and this was one of my earlier explorations using Fibonacci.
I look at this chart with a large pinch of salt, more a fascinating oddity than something scientific (maybe!), but I do find all the correlations very interesting.
Ultimately this connects well with my Vix & Gold charts in regards to overall cycles so I do pay attention to this and it's progression.
Time will tell! Enjoy this "Mayan Calendar" chart as it was jestingly called on Twitter ;)
S&P500 Long SetupSPX500 Long Setup
🔵 Entry: $3,911.9
🟢 TP & RR: $3,954.0 (2.48)
⛔ Stop Loss: $3,894.9
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
✔️ Market Flow Indicator went green
✔️ Trade in direction of the trend
📝 Not much to analyse here aside that it's a trade based on my system. With that being said the price may drop down to the support level, where I will be looking to open a long order again.
DOWGOLD Ratio - SHORT; Look where it is sitting!What "global recovery"??... Are "they" serious? - Of course not. But it is entertaining, that much is true.
Going long Game Stop makes a great deal more sense than owning US equities - or any other, for that matter.
(At least a case can be made for he former .)
... and here is one (among many!), reasonably reliable Risk On(Off) FX pair ...
... which says that the title chart just hit the wall.
S&P 500 Ascending Channel - Short SetupSPX500 Short Trade
Entry: $3,866.6
TP & RR: $3,840.5 (1.13)
Stop Loss: $3,889.7
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
Straight off the bat, you notice two things here - ascending channel and opening a position against the trend with what I consider a bad Risk:Reward Ratio of just over 1. However, I believe that price can form a double top with bearish divergence, retrace back to the lower trendline and then continue up. Of course, we will be looking to open a long order somewhere at the lower trendline.
Stop Loss is set pretty high in case there's a fakeout. However, we will close the position if there's a convincing close above the recent high.
SP500 - SHORT; SELL it here!With the credit spreads looking like they're about to blow out, equities don't stand much of a chance here, either. Look for at least a >-11% dive here.
.... or ... SELL the Nasdaq100 ...
... as it doesn't look much different, either. A little difference without much distinction.
Here is an other clue;
S&P 500 Exhaustion - Sell OrderSPX500 Short Position
Entry: $3,865.0
TP & RR: $3,828.3 (1.95)
Stop Loss: $3,883.8
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
Clear divergence in the Market Flow indicator and we are reaching a trendline, which I believe will act as resistance. SL is set well above it, so we give the trade some space to breathe and hopefully develop as we expect. Target is set at the previously established resistance, which should now act as support.
SP500 could correct to 3500, I'm waiting for confirmationSince the "election all-time high" just under 3700, SP500 continued its rise, but this is anemic to say the least with the index gaining around 3% in the past 2 months.
The rise is in a tight channel which for me is an indication of an imminent reversal.
A break under this channel's support can be the signal for sellers and 3500 is a very modest target for this trade(I believe it will drop harder)
spx's options total volume, much safer to trade high volume Hey guys,
nothing really solid here, jus a safer zone to trad than another. Both success rate for buy/sell are not that good at all.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 signals low volume:
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77 days before a crash
63 days before a top
up swing
@ a top
going down
63 days before a top
sideways
286 before a crash
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- 4 @ months before a
top like months !!!
- 3 false signals
-1 @ a top
***Summary:
50% months before tops
10% @ top
40% false signals
HIGH RISK
HIGH RISK
HIGH RISK
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11 signals high volume:
----------------------
Going down
bottom
going down
going down
up siwng
bottom
up swing
bottom
bottom
bottom
up swing
---------------------------------
3 going down, 5 bottoms, 3 up swings
--------------------------
Summary:
- 45 % @ bottoms.
- 27% up swings
- 27% false signals
-Trade high volume
is safer.
lower risk
lower risk
lower risk
-----------------------------------------
trade above our High volume trigger line is much safer.
S&P500 : The completion of the Diagonal patternIn240 minutes chart of the uptrend from the range of 3511 to 3833 is in the form of 3 waves which confirms the scenario of the formation of the Diagonal pattern.
Currently, to get the the confirmation of the downtrend,the price should not cross the range of 3841,because the 3rd wave should not be shorter than the other waves.
By crossing the price from this range,this scenario will be violated.
Thee confirmation for this pattern will be received by the formation of 5 descending waves,and by crossing the price from the range of 3660.
According to monitored position, personally,I set the short order.
By considering the RSI you can also see the convergence
S&P 500 Ascending Channel - Long SetupS&P 500 Ascending Channel - Long Position
Entry: $3,795.3
TP & RR: $3,873.6 (3.26)
Stop Loss: $3,771.3
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
I believe the price will respect the lower trendline in this ascending channel and will continue trending up. Initially, we had the order at a lower level, but it seemed that we wouldn't get a fill, so we trialed it up.
Needless to say, if the price breaks through it, I am expecting a fairly sharp drop and will be looking for a short position. The current entry is at a support level, which while being a bit conservative, gives us a good RR with the SL far enough and with enough room for the trade to breathe. If the price dives down or does something unexpected, we will close the order prematurely.