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SPY- Risk RewardWhy hasn't the IWM (Russel ETF) moved like the rest of the market today? hm. That has given me confidence, as in the prior breakdown IWM was a leading indicator. We still have our daily Stochastic in overbought and had crossed a few days ago. 50 EMA very close as resistance. A multitude of Other resistances in this area including fibs, from various tops. Could this be the final flush out? Change of behavior in the futures markets these last few days. Earnings coming up, - uncertainty. Continual geo political uncertainty. Stay safe if your long at these levels.
SP:SPXShort
by PipMiesterStronger
SPY- Intraday ContIll make this quick. We created bearish divergence over the last days of trading. (light blue) The last impulse yesterday high a very high volume of about 15 minutes before the market closing, where high volume is normal. This to me could make it a valid high volume topping bar. Remember our daily Stochastics are primed and have crossed yesterday. The total retrace so far has brough us up into many of those major resistances previously deiscuessed. We have retraced to the .50 Fib level on this dead cat bounce. We are within an ascending wedge currently, which typically break to the downside. Possible Breakout to the Downside level of support: 257 If the institutions havent been able to sufficietly get thier positions switched over yet, then they could try to continue to prop price up, for liquididty. At, some point they will be pulling out when they are sufficiently short, with little up risk.
AMEX:SPYShort
by PipMiesterStronger
SPY- Daily Dose of DestructionDaily Chart 1. Stochastics are in the same area and crossing as they had in SPY's previous drops. Both at the 280 Price level and the second drop started the big sell-off. 2. 21 Daily EMA (in Yellow) has been tested and possibly rejected (we must wait and see) 3. The light blue line is a very historic trendline gathered from connecting the hights in 2008 to the consolidation/correction of 2015 and it comes in right where price is currently. 4. The RSI is now getting to the area where it will be testing its (resistance) at the bottom of the blue line. RSI is momentum and the fact that we have gotten all the way up here which if there were no divergence between RSI and price then price should be at the 268 level currently. (going strictly off of the RSI and where the price was last time at these RSI levels) BUT, we are not we are way below that at 252, to me, this is a less concrete form of divergence. We are still in a Bear Market (unless we get and hold above 263 on a monthly TF). Being in a bear market means there will be many Failed breakouts to the upside, getting through resistance and then failing (bull trapping many) I would like to draw our attention to volume and the red line I have pinned. Volume has steadily been decreasing as the price is rising (indecision) and it also means that people are getting less and less willing to aggressively buy this market as prices rise (exhaustion). Wyckoff (I do not know Wyckoff) I have not studied it extensively. But, on a smaller scale and in the manner price looks to me in this 245-252 range really reminds me of a Wyckoff distribution example. The scale is off and really it applies to a much larger timeframe than the 15 minutes, but to me, it looks like Distribution and indecision with unnatural pumps. Unnatural pumps to me are institutions trying to prop the price up, prop the markets up longer (as long as they can) so that they can continue getting out of longs and transition to short. They have to move SO much money that this is a long, slow and difficult process. They will do what they can to support price, in order to get retailers and other investors in there to buy their positions up so they can be delta negative. * Yes Price certainly can go higher to where I have the blue and red Boxes outlined in the chart. they are areas where many people will be looking to establish new shorts (traders), for some, maybe few, get out of 401ks that got decimated (retailers), and very obvious place for institutions to get the last of their leveling shorts in and cleanly get back to delta negative. I am not saying, that we cannot go up from here to the 255-263 (highly anticipated range) It surely can and normally would be expected. In fact, the reason why it's so expected by many and many plans to short at those levels BECAUSE it is SO clearly defined, makes me hesitant to believe the market will be that gracious and give the whole world a great clear shorting opportunity. I think that price either goes down from this level or does get that last exhaustive push up into the box territory. Technically we have broken smaller time frame resistances and are sitting right on top of them. I am going to be very interested to see what price does in this last hour. market makers need to manage their risk within standard deviations. Price has been able to move in increments of 1.5% in this bounce. Today we gapped up very aggressively putting almost 4% on the chart. Makers should be hedging down about 1.5% in on the small timeframes to stay within their risk tolerances, of standard deviations of average true ranges.
AMEX:SPYShort
by PipMiesterStronger
2
SPY- Topped or Topping?Bearish Divergence on the 15 min chart. In a bull market, this is nothing. In a bear market, this is everything. Living below the 21 monthly MA means we are in a Bear Market (the 21 MA is at 263) If the market surges for a higher high this divergence will be continued for a more clear short opportunity and more extreme divergence. In my opinion, Price is completely topped at 263 SPY. That was major support and hence it has become major resistance. This bounce move could be over or it could only be 50% over. What really matters in what direction will price go after the bounce.. IMO .. DOWN DOWN DOWN. Any shorts in this area above the 200 MA is gravy & will be profitable trades. Yes, the perfect short should be up in the 260 areas, but there is NO guarantee that price will get to obvious resistance. The short-term managed risk trades: I will be de-risking in the 244 area. closing more shorts and waiting to see if we break our uptrend support line. If we get below the 244 zones I will be putting on more shorts. The final Trade will be a break of the 234 support, once that is broken it will be a very violent drop. IF this support breaks then Please Please Please, do not be in the market looking for upside movement. It will be the last point for you to get out and secure your 401ks etc...
AMEX:SPY
by PipMiesterStronger
2
SPY- Futures have broken structure.Since the Futures have already broken structure we can assume that we will get that start of some downside movement. Whether we already topped or if we are simply pulling back is a big mystery in my opinion. In fact, trading bounces, are very difficult as there is an inherent lack of information as the movements are so volatile, not leaving as much room for analysis. I will be watching the horizontal supports closely to see if they are holding price or if we break down from them. If we do break down from both of these horizontals we will be looking at our SPY 233 lows. If that cannot hold then we will impulse down toward 212. The horizntal supports provide oppotunities to exit some shorts and de-risk and wait to see if they hold.
S
by PipMiesterStronger
SPY- Top Found? Bearish Divergence on the 15 min chart. In a bull market, this is nothing. In a bear market, this is everything. Living below the 21 monthly MA means we are in a Bear Market (the 21 MA is at 263) If the market surges for a higher high this divergence will be continued for a more clear short opportunity and more extreme divergence. In my opinion, Price is completely topped at 263 SPY. That was major support and hence it has become major resistance. This bounce move could be over or it could only be 50% over. What really matters in what direction will price go after the bounce.. IMO .. DOWN DOWN DOWN. Any shorts in this area above the 200 MA is gravy & will be profitable trades. Yes, the perfect short should be up in the 260 areas, but there is NO guarantee that price will get to obvious resistance. The short-term managed risk trades: I will be de-risking in the 244 area. closing more shorts and waiting to see if we break our uptrend support line. If we get below the 244 zone I will be putting on more shorts. The final Trade will be a break of the 234 support, once that is broken it will be a very violent drop. IF this support breaks then Please Please Please, do not be in the market looking for upside movement. It will be the last point for you to get out and secure your 401ks etc... I hate Elliot waves.. But in this case.. Elliot Waves sure makes a case and we could be at the end of the correction already. Summary: all down from here. Or, one more impulse up followed by much more long-term downside. GL traders, friends, family....
AMEX:SPY
by PipMiesterStronger
1
SPY- Bounce, Found. Top, Searching.So we got the bounce we were looking for, right in the 230 area that I had been talking about. So far so good. Let's see if we can get an idea as to where this market will top out for its final exhaustive push-up. Where would be an area where many people who got caught would love to take the loss for the peace of mind of not being in this market? Where will the bots be programmed to scale in the shorts? What areas have recently been important catalyst levels? I will throw out my target area even though there is no way to know exactly where price will reverse. I'm going with 251-252. I will be watching our horizontal support closely at 249 to see if we have the steam to break through. If we manage to make it above that level then my target will be the next stop. I like the confluence that it has: 1. Horizontal at the lows of the one year consolidation period. 2. Fibonacci .382 retracement level 3. 21 Exp Moving Average (which is projected with my orange dotted line) 4. Fed news breakdown area *When rates hiked, we broke this support that day) We obviously could top out at any given point from where we are right now or all the way up to 263 but the area I will be watching most closely is the 251-252 confluence. We will see if we make it there. These sorts of things are extremely hard to predict, so I like to put weight on price action and volume as we approach critical areas. Looking for a spike in green volume as the price is going up sharply to put in a top. I will also be watching for smaller timeframe bearish divergence as we progress upward.
AMEX:SPY
by PipMiesterStronger
SPY- It's Closing Time (small TF)For Educational Purposes only: I have closed some shorts at today's lows, and will be looking to close more from whatever fade we get from here. Our Stochastics are overbought on the smaller time frames (5-45 minute Tf's) This hints to me that there will another down move before price stabilizes, and attempts its bounce. I will be waiting for them to reach the oversold areas of the indicator, or looking for a large volume bottoming candle on the 5 minute chart. The Red area is the 200 EMA and the Orage area is the 200 MA. Like I mentioned in my last two posts I am looking for a bounce in this area around these Moving Averages. I do not plan to go long, I am just looking to take profits, as many other shorters will naturally be looking at these areas to do the same. We are currently making our way higher on this small timeframe chart, I will be looking for a large volume candle signifying a local top. If we get consistent green volume without a larger volume spike that could signify that we do not retrace to my other green circle areas and closing out sooner could be warranted.
AMEX:SPY
by PipMiesterStronger
1
SPY- Finding a Bounce?We are taking a minute to ONLY look at the RSI HM, a picture is worth a thousand words. We see that the RSI has had a very prominent horizontal area that has been supported for a long time. We have clearly broken that on the RSI support. Any other time in history that these supports were broken they were an early indication of a bear market crash to follow. But we already know that. I want to draw your attention to the green circles on the RSI. There is another slight support in the RSI in the 40 area as the last two crashes initially found support in this same area which produced some sort of bounce and subsequent rollover and deep dive to really crash the markets. This would allow the media to blast more headlines like, "the market is recovering" Or "Biggest gains in one day since 1900" or similar cockamamy bull*** ..which drive fear of missing out emotions in non-technically adept investors/401k holders. As usual, the little guy will make the intitutions richer as they and thier bots heavily short some sort of fib retracement/Moving average resistance lines as price floats up on small volume. Graph- is In LOG scale. White lines from the LOG Scaled Chart Yellow dotted from the LINEAR Scaled Chart.
AMEX:SPY
by PipMiesterStronger
2
SPY- Be a Wolf, not a Sheep. We are aggressively approaching our 200 week moving averages. Throughout this bear market / crash I will be watching very closely certain key levels to close trades out and to allow the price to firm up and then re-enter shorts after whatever bounce has occurred. There is no way to know for sure that a bounce will happen at any given level but whenever you have good confluences coming together a disciplined trader will have a plan to exit at those levels given that the volume characteristics at that point in time confirm your hypothesis. Using volume is a little tricky sometimes. But I boil it down to looking for Large spikes in volume (that were not news driven or during the market closing or opening.) A larger than normal volume, while the price is going down, would signal that the price is trying to put in a local bottom if the price is moving up and produces a large volume bar then a local top. I have my confluence of supports coming in at 233.25 it could overshoot that slightly, especially with the very heavy sell pressure and then get supported up for a bounce. Our moving averages could get pierced slightly and then price still move up. The point is that sometimes there are specific levels that you want to have razor accuracy and execute orders on a breakout as we did at 262.5 for our "Big Short" Clear level, low risk trade with easily manageable risk. The reason we could buy that one off of the 3-minute chart as it was breaking down was that we had a very clear structure that had been tested 5 times already and we were waiting for that final breakthrough (as the more a trendline is tested the weaker it becomes). How will I know that we are not going to bounce or even slow down at this confluence... If we never get a substantial volume that shows there are buyers trying to enter in with force. I am hoping for a bounce for everyone's sake that could not have gotten out of the market earlier, but now feel that price has gone down too far that they will be throwing away all of 2 years gains. I hope they realize that they could very quickly throw away 10 years worth of gains if they cannot get over losing some on their account. Managing your portfolios correctly right now and for this next year will be 1000X more important than choosing which mutual funds or ETFs to hold in a bull cycle. You must be nimble and you must be willing to pull the trigger and take a loss. You might even want to recapture the losses you've incurred by shorting the market. I have not been interested in stocks until I saw the potential crash coming back in August, with the very enticing monthly bearish divergences. Before that, I learned a very hard but clear lesson about market cycles while trading BTC this last year. Do not trade against the trend/market cycle. Become one with the institutions. If the sheeple people are all thinking one thing do the opposite. If the news is telling you something, then your being manipulated to react. In this chart we can see that we had measured moves (Yellow Dotted Line) from the top of the peak down to the bootom of the bear flag. We copied that same line down to get a target price from that structre in the 230's. We have a little bit of supportive price action on the left side of the chart and I have drawn in a support line at 240 and 230. The 200 EMA and MA weeklys are coming in at around those same areas respectivly. No bounce is guarenteed but the indgredents are here for it to happen if buyers decide to make it happen. A bounce could trick some people and I am sure the news will tout that we are recovering the worst is behind us. Please, think twice before beliving that one when you hear it. IMO, It will simply be the last place to get out at a decent place or get accounts set up and ready for shorting at those tops from any bounce. We will be looking of the bounce to test some Moving averages and key resistance levels for establish that short (or for some exit to cash.) Ill be posting every step of the way on this glorious journey to the depths of opportunity. Disclaimer: This is not financial advise this is intended for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk, I am not a financial advisor and am not registered with any agency and all assets have maximum loss potential.
AMEX:SPYShort
by PipMiesterStronger
1
SPDR S&P 500 15M ETF DAY TRADING STRATEGYWe’re going to talk how ETF trading strategies can help you grow a small account quickly. ETFs are versatile financial instruments that are suitable for every trading style from day trading ETF to swing trading ETF. ETF exchange traded funds are financial instruments designed to follow the price of a specific basket of assets and are traded on the US stock exchanges. ETF trading works exactly like stock trading. For example, the SPDR S&P500 ETF (SPY) is tracking the S&P500 index. Day trading is among the best ETF trading strategies because this environment is characterized by high volatility. the best ETF to day trade SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Gold Miners ETF (GDX) ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) Step #1: Apply the 50 – period Moving Average on the 15-Minute Chart The 50 – period moving average is one of the most popular indicators in stock trading. The 50 MA is a psychological level that many professional traders and investors use to gauge the market sentiment. Because many traders use the 50 moving average it has more relevance to the price action. This is the reason why we use the 50 MA in combination with the opening trading range. Step #2: Only Enter Trades after 10:00 AM ET We like to focus on the opening trading range when day trading ETFs. The morning session is when the smart money usually steps in the market and subsequently the most volume happens during the morning session. By focusing only on the morning session we avoid being glued to the chart all day long and only trade alongside the institutional money. The regular trading hours for the SPDR S&P 500 trust starts at 9:30 AM ET. But, we like the first 30 minutes after the open, to wait and see what the smart money are doing. Successful day trading leveraged ETFs is all about taking those opportunities during the most volatile time of the trading day. Step #3: Price Needs to Hold Below 50-MA and to Open in the Lower Part of the Previous 5 Day Trading Range After we analyze how the market plays out during the first 30 minutes of the opening session, we look for the price to hold below the key 50 moving average. Secondly, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF also needs to open in the lower part of the previous 5 day trading range. Simply mark on your chart the previous 5 trading days and the lowest price of that trading range. If, on the six day we open near the lowest price and we hold below 50 MA we’re good to sell SPY. Step #4: Hide SL $0.25 above the 50 Moving Average With this mechanical day trading strategy we place our stop loss $0.25 above the 50 moving average. If after the open SPY breaks above the 50 MA it signals that the bears are very weak. We found this technical reading to be very significant for day trading. Step #5: Take Profit if SPY Declines $1.00 This trade setup is based on our experience that if all the above conditions are satisfied, then there is a very high probability for the SPY ETF to fall at least $1. If your profit target is not reached by 4:00 PM ET close the trade manually. Note** the above was an example of a SELL trade. Use the same rules for a BUT trade – but in reverse. Day trading ETFs provides simple investment opportunities and have a lower operating cost than most of the other financial vehicles. Don’t underestimate the power of trading leveraged ETFs if you want to take advantage of the intraday volatility.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Tradingstrategyguides