MACRO VIEW: LWC IS ON BREAKDOWN RISKSPDR® Barclays Long Term Corporate Bond ETF (LWC) fell out from 1-st standard deviations of quarterly (66-day) and 1-year (264 day) means, thus entering a full-blown downtrend.
This scenario is only cancelled if price gets back within 1-st standard deviation from 1-year mean (above 38.7)
Traders can take short positions off 1st standard deviations from quarterly mean (38.00)
Spdr
5 Reasons Why I Believe a Correction is Due1. I measured the distance off the Ichimoku Cloud, just before markets crashed in 2000 & 2008. We are definitely way too above the cloud support right now (Approximately $69 off the cloud support or 56.27%), let alone the 50 & 200 moving averages.
2. Assessing the data after 1994, the JMA2 moving average is currently in the longest uptrend streak ever, which has been running for 729 days. The uptrend is noted by the white line on the candles, and black line is the downtrend.
3. RSI on a monthly chart has faithfully indicated prior to the previous 2 market crashes, as shown by the pink circles.
4. Jurik Research's JU_VEL shows the momentum. It is at the highest reading ever since 1994. Momentum seems to be peaking here and from the chart it's obvious what happens after that.
5. Notice the volume dropping - but the momentum & price gaining. These price levels are paper thin, I believe it is very fragile. All good things come to an end - but it is probably for the bigger good of the market.
Here's a very fascinating read about the Bradly Siderograph and how it applies in 2014:
www.seeitmarket.com
Follow me on StockTwits:
stocktwits.com
Gold, Silver, Wall Street, OilGold, Silver, Wall Street, Oil
Relative performance at 4 time frames
Note the drastic difference post-2007.
Also note the chaos of 2014
Potential Short sell on Energy Select Sector Confluence of CD=1.618 AB, 2.24 BC extension and 1.618 leg of the Deep Crab pattern all converge in a tight area between 95.62 and 101.40.
In addition to this they converge to the logical number 100.00. Hence a pull back, not a reversal, sounds like a tempting trading idea.
Stop Loss order: 103.00
Entry: 97.45
Target Profit : 75.00
