Sector Winners and Losers week ending 8/20Defensive sectors led throughout this week as the Market absorbed data that showed a slowing economic recovery and meeting minutes from the Fed that indicated tapering could begin this year.
Utilities (XLU) and Health Care (XLV) exchanged the lead several times, and the finish was close. Utilities came out on top as a favorite place for investors to keep money in equities, but take a defensive stance toward the economy. Health Care also did well as the world watches another wave of the pandemic brought on by the Delta variant of COVID.
Technology (XLK) also mixed in with the defensive sectors at the top of the list. Big tech seems to be another safe play for equity investors with Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), and Alphabet (GOOGL) all turning in strong financials and appear resilient to new waves of lockdowns.
Suffering the most from fears of economic slowdown as well as the pandemic, Energy (XLE) came in the last place for the week with a huge loss of over 7%.
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Sector Winners and Losers week ending 9/13Materials (XLB) led the sector list for the week, getting a massive boost on Tuesday and Wednesday after the Infrastructure bill passed the Senate. Industrials (XLI) also got a boost from the bill.
Financials (XLF) contented for the top spot, gaining from rising Treasury yields that positively impact performance for the sector. However, yields dropped on Friday, and the sector dropped back to third place.
The defensive sectors of Consumer Staples (XLP) and Utilities (XLU) also ended the week near the top of the list, signaling caution throughout the week as investors worry about rising cases of COVID in the US and around the world.
Energy (XLE) had a few good days but ended the week in the last place.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 8/6Several sectors rallied into the lead throughout the week, but Financials (XLF) came from behind to end the week as the top sector. On Friday, the sector added 2% on top of gains earlier in the week. The rally came as employment data was better than expected, sending Treasury yields higher and brightening the prospects for big bank performance tied to the yields.
Utilities (XLU) enjoyed the top spot on Monday and early Tuesday, rallied again on Thursday, but fell to second place on Friday. The defensive sector shows investors were cautious throughout the week as indexes set new records amidst worries the rising Delta variant might pull back the economic recovery.
Health Services (XLV) took the lead spot on Wednesday, likely on the view that there will be an increased demand for vaccines and therapies that can handle the resurgence of the pandemic.
Consumer Staples (XLP) was the only sector to decline this week, putting it at the bottom of the sector list.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 7/30Materials (XLB) was the top sector of the week as manufacturing and core durable goods data showed increase demand and was confirmed in consumer spending numbers. The growth in the sector was matched by increased prices in metal commodities required to support economic expansion.
Energy (XLE) started the week strong and led several days throughout the week, but ended in second place behind Materials at the end of the week.
The three worst sectors were the growth sectors, all losing for the week. Technology (XLK), Communication Services (XLC), and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) were at the bottom of the weekly sector list.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 7/23Utilities (XLU) dropped to the bottom of the sector list after leading in the previous week. It was all about Growth stocks this week as investors put off fears of the economy and looked forward to record earnings reports from big tech.
Communication Services (XLC) led the week thanks to huge earnings beat by SNAP and Twitter. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Technology (XLK) were second and third.
Energy (XLE) briefly moved into the top spot on Wednesday afternoon before falling back and ending the week in second-to-last place. Only Utilities and Energy declined for the week.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 7/16The sectors ended the week in a very character than they started the week. None of the leading sectors early in the week were leading by the end of the week.
Financials (XLF) started the week in first as investors anticipated earnings reports from big banks that began on Tuesday. By Friday, the sector slipped to the middle of the list, ending the week with a -1.61% decline.
Technology (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC) took over the top spots for Tuesday and most of Wednesday. They also reversed downward and ended the week with losses.
The only sectors to end the week with gains were Utilities (XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP), and Real Estate (XLRE). The defensive sectors gained ground at the end of the week as worries over the economy grew among investors.
Energy (XLE) was at the bottom of the list, dropping -7.89% this week. OPEC+ continues to have disagreements, destabilizing the sector along with the price of oil. Add the fears of a slowing recovery, and investors are exiting positions in the sector that performed well in the first half of 2021.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 7/9The short week was defined mainly by Thursday's sell-off in equities as Treasury bond yields were sliding. That gave a boost to two defensive sectors, Real Estate (XLRE) and Utilities (XLU), but the two sectors were already leading from Monday. The worries ended on Friday, but the two sectors remained in the lead for the week.
Technology (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) were the next two sectors at the top of the list, showing a mix of risk-on and risk-off sentiment throughout the week.
The cyclical sectors moved from the top of the sector list on Wednesday to the bottom of the list on Thursday, back to the top of the list on Friday.
Energy (XLE) was a consistent loser throughout the week until finally finding itself at the top of the list on Friday. However, the gains were not enough to move it out of the bottom position for the week.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 7/2Technology (XLK) led the sector list this week, propelled higher by strong economic data and significant gains by big tech. Communications (XLC) led briefly on Monday after a judge threw out two cases brought against Facebook. The decision was a blow to regulators and a boon to several tech mega-caps facing similar challenges.
Utilities (XLU) also led at the beginning of the week but quickly retreated and ended the week at a loss.
Energy (XLE) had a volatile start to the week due to increased pandemic fears. The continued demand for Oil, driving prices higher, eventually brought investors back to the sector. However, it wasn't enough to lift the sector out of the bottom position in the sector list.
The three secular growth sectors outperformed the broader S&P 500 index this week, while cyclical sectors underperformed.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 6/25Energy (XLE) and Financials (XLF) topped the sector list this week. Energy continues to rise while crude oil prices hit record highs. Financials (XLF) is recovering along with yields on Treasury Bonds, which both were hit by the hawkish stance from the Fed last week.
At the bottom of the sector list were the defensive sectors. Utilities (XLU) was the only sector to decline this week.
The growth sectors mixed with the cyclical sectors in the middle of the list.
Post-Fed Markets. What To Expect Next?Investors are readjusting both their thinking and positions following the Federal Reserve’s less dovish tone. The Fed raised its inflation outlook by a full percentage point and penciled in two rate hikes a year earlier than previously indicated.
Fundamental analysis
At the same time, the central bank lifted its growth expectations for 2021 to +7%, an outlook far above the anemic GDP growth rates experienced pre-pandemic. Bulls largely want to stay focused on the economic “boom” ahead, believing it will more than offset any near-term inflation headwinds that companies may face in the second half of the year. And there is evidence money may be shifting back into some of the mega-cap growth stocks.
I just worry that the move might be temporary in nature or perhaps just a knee-jerk and a place to park some money until they figure out their next move. The Fed’s more hawkish shift also seems to be providing a further boost to the U.S. dollar, which shot up nearly a full percentage point against a basket of six other major currencies in the ICE U.S. Dollar Index.
Keep in mind, many big money players have been forecasting a somewhat softer dollar based on the Fed’s extended supports. Obviously, a stronger dollar is a headwind for commodities and that was on display last week with a sea of red across everything from grains to metals and oil.
Oil markets are also feeling some additional downward pressure from the coronavirus surge happening in the UK, which some worry could ripple across the EU and further delay other re-openings.
Data to watch
Housing is in the spotlight in the first half of the week with Existing Home Sales Tuesday and New Home Sales on Wednesday. The housing market has been sending some mixed signals lately as home prices continue to soar, inventories remain at historic lows, and builders struggle with skyrocketing input prices and labor shortages.
Other data includes Durable Goods Orders and the final estimate of third quarter GDP on Thursday; and Personal Income & Outlays, and Consumer Sentiment on Friday.
SP500 technical analysis
While last week SP500 posted a fresh record top at 4258.5 (4267.5 on Jun), bears have returned to the market, aggressively selling futures on Friday and for sentiment to end a sequence of higher weekly lows with losses of 118 Pts from the top. This is negative and with cycles pointing lower, we can see further decline. 4179.0 is an important level to watch if tested and rejected. The supports 4100.5, the May 20th open, 4046.0, the 5-week base, and 4020.0, May’s low trade.
Keep in mind, that this could be just a jerk-reaction after Fed. Also, cycles forecast a potential rally in 2 weeks.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 6/11It was a mix of defensive sectors and growth stocks at the top of the sector list this week, while the cyclical sectors took a step back.
Real Estate (XLRE) led the sector list, continuing to gain on a solid housing market, higher rents, as well as a defense against potential inflation.
Health Care (XLV) also rallied this week, ending the week in second place on the sector list. Eli Lilly (LLY) helped boost the sector with news that the FDA may approve a new Alzheimer's therapy. The stock and the sector faded late in the week on the controversy over statements made by the company.
Technology (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) were third and fourth on the list, with steady increases throughout the week as investors became more confident in the growth trade.
The cyclical stocks fell this past week. Financials (XLF) suffered from lower treasury yields, potentially impacting interest rates that drive revenue for the sector. Industrials (XLI) and Materials (XLB) declined as more of congress pushes back on Biden's infrastructure spending proposals.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 6/4Energy (XLE) and Real Estate (XLRE) led the sector list for the week, establishing their lead early in the week. Energy got a boost from the rise in oil prices on high demand. Real Estate is gathering momentum from rising housing and rental prices while also being a great hedge against inflation.
The focus on employment data released on Friday morning is clear in two pivots. There was a sharp sell-off of most sectors except Consumer Staples (XLP) and Utilities (XLU) on Thursday ahead of the report. The two sectors are good defensive plays when investors get nervous about how the market may react to news or events.
After the report was released, Technology (XLK), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), and Communications (XLC) rallied on Friday. It seems the employment data was good enough to keep a positive outlook, while not so good to drive more fears of tapering by the Fed.
Health Care (XLV) was the worst-performing sector for the week.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 5/28Growth sectors stole the show this week as investors put inflation worries aside and boosted Communications (XLC) and Technology (XLK) early in the week. The focus was on the growth sectors from Monday to Wednesday. Technology faded back in the list, buy Consumer Discretionary (XLY) joined Communications to end the week at the top of the list.
On Thursday, there was a rotation into cyclicals, bringing Industrials (XLI) higher in the list. Industrials ended the week in fourth place.
Friday brought out the defensive plays heading into a three-day weekend and the start of the summer months. That gave a boost to Real Estate (XLRE), Health Care (XLV), Utilities (XLU), and Consumer Staples (XLP). Real Estate (XLRE) ended in third place for the week, while Health Care and Utilities remained at the bottom two sectors for the week.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 5/14It was a mix of defensive and cyclical stocks that led the sector list this week. Only three sectors ended the week with gains, while the high growth sectors took the biggest declines.
Consumer Staples (XLP) topped the list with Utilities (XLU) in fourth place. Both are defensive sectors for investors. Real Estate (XLRE) was lower in the list but still outperformed the sectors.
Financials (XLF) and Materials (XLB) joined Consumer Staples as the only sectors to end the week with gains.
Technology (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) were at the bottom of the list. Both contain high growth companies that are likely to be impacted by inflation and potential increases in interest rates. They started to recovery on Thursday and Friday after the US Dollar and Treasury interest rates dropped.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 5/7It was the cyclical sectors that ruled the week. Energy (XLE), Materials (XLB), Financials (XLF) and Industrials (XLI) were the top four sectors of the week.
The cyclical sectors are benefiting from a pick-up in economic activity driving demand for products from building materials, infrastructure and the manufacturing of consumables. Supply has not been able to keep up with the increased demand, driving commodity prices higher. Timber, Copper, Aluminum are all skyrocketing. And demand for oil is increasing as transportation picks back up.
While the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) and S&P 500 (SPX) hit new all-time records, there were four sectors that lost for the week. Technology (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) fell on Monday thru Wednesday along with the Nasdaq, as investors rotated to re-opening and infrastructure stocks.
Real Estate (XLRE) and Utilities (XLU) were the bottom two sectors. Investors did not have interest in the defensive equity plays this week. Investors remain confident in the equities market, but are playing toward value, re-opening and infrastructure.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 4/30Energy (XLE) led the weekly sector list for the first time since the first week of March. The sector was helped by oil prices that rose on Tuesday and Wednesday, and positive earnings reports from Exxon Mobile and Chevron.
Financials (XLF) and Communications (XLC) stocks solidified second and third place with strong opens on Thursday. Financials was boosted by positive earnings reports from Capital One and S&P Global. Communications got a big lift from Alphabet and Facebook, as advertising revenues soar amidst consumers getting back to spending.
Despite several positive earnings reports in the sector, Technology (XLK) ended the week in last place. Investor outlook appears to be that these big tech companies will not continue the same amount of growth in the next few quarters, especially compared to the previous year's numbers.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 4/23The S&P 500 had a slight loss for the week, but there were two sectors that soared despite the market.
Real Estate (XLRE) ended the week as the top sector, advancing over 2%. Three factors helped the sector breakout and then stay on top the whole week. The economic recovery is a boon for the real estate industry as occupancy rates climb driving demand and prices higher. Interest rates remain low thanks to the Fed's continued easy money policy, keeping costs low. And in a climate of nervous investors, fearful of new lockdowns around the world, the real estate sector becomes a nice defensive play that has growth potential as well.
Healthcare (XLV) was the second best sector of the week. The sector has lagged behind the S&P 500 since the beginning of the year. Positive earnings reports from UnitedHealth (UNH) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) over the past few weeks gave it the momentum needed to catch up with a 1.81% advance this week.
The only other sectors that had gains for the week were Materials (XLB) and Industrials (XLI), both responding positively to great economic recovery news.
At the bottom of the sector list were Energy (XLE) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY). Energy stocks continue to underperform as oil prices have been dropping in recent weeks. Consumer Discretionary was a big part of the S&P 500 setting records the previous three weeks and was due to pause or pullback this week. Earnings reports from Tesla (TSLA) and Amazon (AMZN) next week will have a big influence on the sector performance.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 4/16Utilities (XLU) is surprisingly the top sector for the day. Topping the list on Tuesday and nearing the top of the list on Friday the sector had steady gains throughout the week. The sector is usually a defensive move for investors. Perhaps investors nervousness grew as the S&P 500 has been setting new all-time highs.
Less of a surprise is to see Materials (XLB) at the top of the weekly list. The sector is benefiting not only from investments on infrastructure being discussed in Washington, but also a strong housing sector and a surge in building permits.
Energy (XLE) had a choppy week, taking the lead on Wednesday, but quickly fading to near the bottom of the list for the weekly.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) also had some good days this week, advancing on news of strong retail sales and an advance in consumer credit showing increased spending.
The worst performing sector this week was Communications (XLC). There have been some reports of decelerating spending on Internet media and social platforms from retailers. That makes sense as demand is naturally increasing and requires less effort for omnichannel marketing to bring in consumers.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 4/9The S&P 500 was dominated by three growth sectors for the week, finishing the week with a big 2.71% gain and another new all-time high.
Technology (XLK) finished the week as the top sector, taking the top spot on Thursday and Friday as big tech companies solidified breakouts from their recent consolidations.
Likewise, Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Communication Services (XLC) finished in second and third place largely thanks for mega-caps that are overweight in the lists.
Energy (XLE) was at the bottom of the list with over a 4% decline. Some of that may be attributed to mixed outlook from analysts on supply and demand for oil. But Energy also tends to suffer when a large amount of investment rotates into the three big growth sectors.
Only Energy declined for the week. The other sectors had gains, albeit underperformed the broader S&P 500 index.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 4/1Communications (XLC) did not top the sector list for a single day, but it's steady gains throughout the week put it at the top of the weekly chart.
Utilities (XLU) started the week on top. Investors were nervous on Monday about the lasting impact of the Suez Canal blockage and whether a $20b fire sale of Archegos investments would grow or even expand to other firms. Utilities popped back into the story late on Wednesday when a sudden pop and sell-off in big tech occurred in the final hour.
Financials (XLF) was also impacted by the Archegos drama on Monday. By Tuesday, the damage was contained and higher treasury bond yields provided a life to the sector, making it the top performer for the day.
Technology (XLK) got a boost on Wednesday when Microsoft announced news of an augmented reality deal with the US Army. That spike sold off quickly, but the buyers came back in on Thursday, bringing the Technology sector up to second place for the week.
Energy (XLE) spent most of the week at the bottom of the list. Higher-then-expected demand for oil and gas and a generally positive outlook for economic growth brought the sector gains on Thursday that lifted it from the bottom.
Consumer Staples (XLP) ended the week as the worst performing sector. The rotation out of staples could continue as investors see consumers return to normal spending habits in a strengthening economic cycle.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 3/26There were several change of winners and losers during a week that ended with the S&P 500 at a record close.
Technology (XLK) led for the first two days of the week, was sold off heavily on Wednesday and Thursday, but then ended the week with a huge gain on Friday, putting it in third place.
Utilities (XLU) took over the top spot on Thursday as investors became very cautious and fled to the defensive sector.
Consumer Staples (XLP) remained steady throughout the volatile week and ended the week at the top.
After last week's rout, Energy (XLE) seemed to find a bottom on Tuesday. After a big gain on Wednesday, the sector opened back near the bottom on Thursday, but quickly recovered. But the end of Friday, it was able to end the week with a gain.
Communication Services (XLC) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) were the only two sectors to decline for the week. Communication Services ended the week at the bottom with more than a 4% decline. Although Technology sector fared well, there is still evidence of rotation from growth to value.