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Sector Winners and Losers week ending 11/13Energy (XLE +17.11% WoW) was the clear winner of the week. Straight out of the gait, Energy benefited from the news that an effective vaccine could be available soon. The Energy sector would benefit from the economic recovery of several of sectors including Transportation, Travel and Leisure. Financials (XLF +8.29% WoW) followed in a distance second. Banks have a lot to benefit from an economic recovery including higher yields in bonds as investors move back into equities. Those two sectors stood tall above the rest who all performed more closely to the S&P 500 performance. Technology (XLK -0.31% WoW) was the only sector to end the week with losses. A clear metric of what we already knew - that investors rotated out of popular technology stocks that benefited from the pandemic lockdowns.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
DIA: Ready to Fill the GapDow has shown recent bullishness however that might be coming to an end soon. We gapped up today over a low volume area but we have several confluent supports coming up in that zone including anchored vwap, moving averages and trendlines. I do expect us to retrace and fill at least some of this gap, but we may go lower to test the vwap's and moving average supports. On top of that, we also have our moving average delta indicator beginning to turn down which signals the momentum of a move or a possible reversal, in this case it looks like downward momentum is gaining. Of course we could get news to send us higher but I have a lot of concerns with the gaps beneath us and the volume support. I am short term bearish on the dow because of those reasons but things could always change! Ideally, the bulls need to gain control above the bottom wedge trendline for me to have bullish confidence. AMEX:DIA
AMEX:DIAShort
by jakelikesstocks
1
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 10/30It was a long painful week for all the sectors with the overall S&P 500 index losing -5.64%, worst since March of this year. Utilities (XLU) topped the list of sectors "only" losing -3.66% and remained as the safe place for investors to go to stay into equities instead of the alternatives. There were certainly days that each sector had to shine, but as far as the week-to-date performance, there was not a lot of back and forth as the days progressed in the weekly list of sector winners/losers. Most sectors beat the overall S&P 500 index. The exception is Technology (XLK), Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Industrials (XLI). Consumer Discretionary just barely beat out Industrials to be the week's loser at a -6.55% loss.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
ridethepig | Consumer Staples🛒 Consumer staples is dealing with a remarkable situation on the macro front which we have discussed at earlier opportunities (see ALPHA PROTOCOL: SEEKING IMMEDIATE EXTRACTION). One should be wary of the immediate risk for a waterfall as consumer staples hang onto the highs by a fingernail. After completing the 5 wave sequence to the topside, clearly the end of the road is approaching for this economic cycle and we must decline into 2021/2022 in order to untangle the flows for 2022 -> 2030. Time to start paying close attention for early signs of a turn. Risk is threatening to breakdown in an impulsive fashion, our opponents are attempting to prevent the breakdown, but with stimulus delayed till after the elections the protective move is out of the question this week. Strong support from a technical perspective is found at 53/52 and 48/47.
AMEX:XLPShort
by ridethepig
Short-term bounce on DXYThanks for viewing. Following because of USD holdings and USD denominated assets - including assets negatively correlated to the USD - like gold. USD held as a hedge against weaker local currency and against gold positions. Whatever your personal belief on Elliot Wave, I am not imagining a very clear 5 waves down (labelled (i) to (v), since the march 2020 high. There are 5 sub-waves evident in each of the three down portions and none of the EW guidelines, tendencies, retracements, extensions, or rules are broken for an impulse move (i.e. wave 2 tends to be deeper and reached a 50% retracement, wave 4 is normally a shallower more correction and hit the 0.382 retracement level almost exactly). Long story short, this an impulse move that meets all normal characteristics, so I am charting out what that could mean for price if it continues to follow stereotypical EW tendencies - a 3 wave correction. Overall, I see the relative valuation of the USD vs the DXY currency basket as heading downwards as in my, possibly overly pessimistic view, the USD loses both it's safe-haven and global reserve status. However, my bearish view is primarily based on the chart. I will post a longer-term chart next. Remember all fiat currencies are losing value over time, some are just losing value more quickly. I hope everyone who hasn't already considered a physical precious metals position (no not a gold or silver ETF position Millenials) will do so, even just as a hedge. Some major hedge funds have positions sizes of around 10% of assets in gold - maybe they know a thing or two. Actually, I will permit myself a digression here. You cannot ask for physical delivery from a precious metals ETF unless you have a significant position and I would think that in the event of a bullion / monetary crisis that option may no longer be available. So any gains are just paper gains. The Custodian of the world's largest gold ETF was in the news last week as one of the major banks involved in the suspicious activity report (SAR) scandal (while they were already on probation for previous wrong-doing) - which I expect to result in major litigation and fines. But wait, that is not all! They just popped up in my news feed again today as an alleged facilitator of transactions between Huawei and US sanctioned Iran. Wow, they seem like a really safe, super ethically sound bunch to hold gold on my behalf :P Imagine if they are being similarly ethically sound and forthcoming about the level of their physical gold holdings versus their issued gold ETF shares - well if it was ever discovered that these two things were divergent, not only would gold ETF holders miss out on the massive price appreciation of physical gold that results, but you may also not be able to withdraw ETF funds. Ok, rant over. But seriously, if you do buy gold or silver to hedge against currency deflation / coming inflation, consider secure, reputable, insured non-bank vaults that give you images of your allocated holdings that is in a safe, politically stable, bullion friendly jurisdiction - like bullionstar.com and not a bullion ETF. Ok, I feel better now. Another really good reason I am following the DXY as strengthening of the USD will mean a pull-back and possible good buy zone for precious metals - which I see as going higher after correcting recently for no good fundamental reason. A bounce in the USD is allowing me to load up on silver which is again worth more than 80:1 (by weight) vs gold. I hope all that made sense. Protect those funds and good luck.
TVC:DXY
by flyinkiwi10
Nasdaq Week In Review - 10/19/2020 - 10/23/2020The Nasdaq Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. It helps me evaluate my observations, recognize new data points, and make a plan for possible scenarios in the near future. If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I'm also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas. The structure is the following: A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView. Larger view on the past week What's coming in the next week Key index levels to watch out for Wrap-up -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Monday, October 19, 2020 Pray tomorrow takes me higher Facts: 1.65% lower, Volume higher, Closing range: 8%, Red Body: 78% Good: Held above 21d EMA , volume still not super high Bad: Almost everything, start up 1% but go down the whole day Candle: 78% red body with 8% closing range. Advance/Decline: 0.35, twice as many stocks declining than advancing Sectors: All sectors were down, but Utilities ( XLU ) was the best performing of the day. Energy ( XLE ) led with gains in the morning. Technology ( XLK ) and Communications ( XLC ) were worst of day. Expectation: Sideways or Lower The stock market opened the week on a sour note on Monday. After being up 1% at open, the market quickly turned and trended downward the entire day. The Nasdaq finished the day -1.65% lower on higher volume (my indicator above is from QQQ ). The candle is a large red body of 78%, with a short upper wick from the morning gains. A closing range of 8% shows we ended the day at the bottom. There were twice as many declining stocks than advancing. Although volume was higher, it is still lower than recent average volume . The index is testing the October support area as well as the 21d EMA. The S&P500 lost 1.63% on the day. None of the sectors ended the day with gains. Utilities ( XLU ) performed the best. Energy ( XLE ) had early morning gains before pivoting and losing ground. Communications ( XLC ) and Technology ( XLK ) were the worst performing of the day. If the 21d EMA support can hold, then a small gain around 0.80% might be expected. That would continue the trend from the 10/12 pivot and also meet up with the 5d line and the trend line from the 9/23 bottom. With good news on stimulus or the pandemic, that could bring the index back to it's longer trend from early September which points to a 4.21% gain. However, the index is trading in the lower half of that regression channel. Continuing today's downward trend would take the index below the 21d EMA for a -1.93% loss. It would likely get support at the 50d MA as well as the September support area of 11,300. Going further than that would be a very negative signal and we would put our eye on the July support area of 10,600. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Tuesday, October 20, 2020 I know why you want to hate me Facts: 0.33% higher, Volume higher, Closing range: 28%, Red Body: 9% Good: Stayed above yesterday’s low and holding above 21d EMA Bad: Very choppy day with selling into close Highs/Lows: Lower high, Higher low (Inside day) Candle: Inside day, 9% red body with 28% closing range. Advance/Decline: 1.18, slightly more advancing than declining Sectors: Utilities ( XLE ) finished the day on top. Consumer Discretionary ( XLY ) and Finance ( XLF ) led at mid-day but fell off. Consumer Staples ( XLP ) was the worst performing. Expectation: Sideways or Lower It was a choppy day with many moves back and forth. After being up 1.34% at one point in the day, the Nasdaq dropped in afternoon selling, ending the day with a 0.33% gain. The candle has a thin negative body of 9% and a lower closing range of 28%. The inside day (recognized by the price range being within the previous days range) often marks a continuation of the current trend. There were slightly more advancing stocks than declining stocks. Although volume was higher, it is still lower than recent average volume . The index is still testing October support area and the 21d EMA . Breaking the 21d EMA would be a negative signal. The S&P500 gained +0.47%, with Utilities ( XLE ) ending the day as the leading sector. Consumer Discretionary ( XLY ) and Financials ( XLF ) both led at mid-day but lost those gains in the late afternoon. Consumer Staples ( XLP ) was the worst performing sector today and the only sector with a loss. The mega-caps all saw gains with Apple ( AAPL +1.32%) and Google ( GOOG +1.39%) outperforming the indexes. Microsoft ( MSFT +0.20%) and Amazon ( AMZN +0.31%) turned in smaller gains. Growth stock Tesla ( TSLA -2.06%) continues to lose ground heading in Wednesday earnings . Logitech ( LOGI +15.76%) had a huge gap up after bearing expectations. Some 2020 favorites such as Zoom (ZM -5.51%), Datadog ( DDOG -2.75%), and Pinterest (PINS -1.09%) had losing days. Snap (SNAP -0.74%) is up over 22% after hours after also smashing expectations. As for expectations, a lot depends on news coming from ongoing stimulus discussions. A positive sign of an agreement could have the index bounce of this support area and move up +3.65% to rejoin the trend line drawn from the 9/23 bottom. Another potential outcome is that stimulus talks continue and investors remain optimistic which could result in a +1.02% gain, continuing today’s trend line and rejoining the trend from 9/3. The index is trading in the lower half of all these regression trends. However, there seems to be good support at the 21d EMA and so a downward move looks like it would be limited to a -0.22% loss. That would continue along the trend drawn from the pivot on 10/12. If investor sentiment were to worsen, the index could break through the 21d EMA and then hopefully find support at the 50d MA. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wednesday, October 21, 2020 Have you heard about the Lonesome Loser? He's a loser but he still keeps on trying. Facts: 0.28% lower, Volume lower, Closing range: 6%, Red Body: 33% Good: Still holding above 21d EMA Bad: Another choppy day with selling into close Highs/Lows: Lower high, Higher low (Inside day) Candle: Inside day, 33% red body with 6% closing range. Advance/Decline: 0.61, ratio of 3:2 decliners to advancers Sectors: Communication Services ( XLC ) stole the day as the big winner. Energy ( XLE ) was the worst performing. Expectation: Sideways or Lower Wednesday was a continuation of Tuesday with an attempt to make gains that sold off in a choppy fashion throughout the rest of the day. After gaining 0.84%, the Nasdaq dropped to close with a -0.28% loss. The candle has a very tiny lower wick with a 33% red body and 6% closing range. Another inside day (recognized by the price range being within the previous days range) shows little direction in which way the market will go. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks at a ratio of 3:2. Volume was lower than the previous day and continues to be lower than recent averages. The index is still testing October support area and the 21d EMA . Breaking the 21d EMA would be a negative signal. The S&P500 lost -0.22%, despite all the efforts of Communication Services ( XLC ) sector which gained 1.68%. Most of the other sectors incurred losses of around 0.5%. Industrials ( XLI ) lost -1.01%. Energy ( XLE ) was the worst performing sector with a loss of -1.91%. Google ( GOOG +2.4%), Facebook ( FB +4.17%) and Twitter ( TWTR +8.39%) drove huge gains in the Communication Services sector, possibly all helped by the Snap (SNAP +28.30%) earnings beat which earned the social platform a massive gain. Netflix ( NFLX -6.92%) retreated on news of lower than expected earnings and slowing subscriber growth. Other mega-caps Apple ( AAPL -0.24%), Amazon ( AMZN -1.0%) and Microsoft ( MSFT -0.09%) did not fair as well with Apple and Amazon closing below 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. Tesla ( TSLA +0.17%) announced an earnings beat after market close and is up over 3% in after hours trading. Recent growth favorites Peloton (PTON -5.78%), Fiverr ( FVRR -9.30%) and Datadog ( DDOG -5.91%) are all losing recent gains. The trend lines provide a few possibilities, but much still depends on news coming from ongoing stimulus discussions. With some positive news, a gain of +3.70% would rejoin the trend line drawn from the 9/23 bottom. If the mega-caps and a breadth of stocks of regain ground, a more likely result would be a +1.39% gain, rejoining the trend from 9/3. With all but XLC having a challenging Wednesday, the big test for Thursday will be whether the index can hold above the October support and 21d EMA lines. That support looks in jeopardy at this point given the momentum. A downward move looks like it would be around -0.52% loss, possibly dipping below the 21d EMA and then coming back up to as a resistance line. That would continue today’s trend line and the trend drawn from the pivot on 10/12. If investor sentiment were to worsen, the index could go further below the 21d EMA and then hopefully find support at the 50d MA. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Thursday, October 22, 2020 Livin’ on a prayer. Facts: 0.19% higher, Volume lower, Closing range: 76%, Red Body: -12% Good: Reversed from morning lows to end day positive Bad: Dipped below 21d EMA Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low Candle: Looks like a hammer , 12% red body with 76% closing range. Advance/Decline: 1.76, more advancers than decliners Sectors: Energy ( XLE ) had a huge 4.13% gain. Financial ( XLF ), Health ( XLV ) and Utilities ( XLU ) also had good days. Expectation: Sideways or Higher Finally, there is a bit of character change in the market. After several days of morning gains selling off in afternoon trading, the opposite happened on Thursday. A big morning loss that took the index below the 21d EMA was bought back in the afternoon to end the day with gains. The Nasdaq ended the day with a 0.19% gain. The candle, with a 76% closing range and 12% red body looks like a reversal hammer . That will need to be confirmed with the next few days of trading. Volume was lower (my indicator above is based on QQQ volume ) for the Nasdaq and continues to be lower than average volume in recent weeks. For a true hammer candlestick , we'd want to see higher volume . There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks at a ratio of 1.76. It’s a positive sign that the index regained it’s ground and closed above the 21 day EMA . The S&P500 had a similar pattern and closed the day with a 0.52% gain, led by Energy ( XLE +4.13%) and Financial ( XLF +1.99%). Most of the sectors saw gains on the day. Technology ( XLK -0.24%) and Real Estate ( XLRE -0.70%) were the worst performing. The Russell 2000 Index had gains of 1.65% as investors looked for good opportunities in small cap stocks. Google ( GOOG +1.38%) led the mega-cap stocks with it’s second day of solid gains. Apple ( AAPL -0.96%) and Amazon ( AMZN -0.27%) had losses on the day and continue to trade below their 50 day MA. It would be a positive sign for an overall upward trend if these mega-caps got back above this key line. Chevron ( CVX +3.57%) and Exxon Mobil ( XOM +5.13%) along with almost every energy stock saw gains after talk of consolidation in the industry and layoffs at Exxon. Snap (SNAP +6.77%) continued it’s rally after an earnings breakout. Several growth stocks such as Restoration Hardware ( RH +4.34%) and Zoom (ZM +1.43%) had gains after several days of losses. This is all a good sign, but needs to be confirmed with additional gains from more growth stocks. If the candlestick hammer is confirmed and we see gains from here, trend lines point to two possibilities. The first is a +1.01% gain in the area between today’s trend line and the trend drawn from the 9/3 correction start. Additional positive news could accelerate gains to reach the trend line draw from the 9/23 bottom. That would mean a +3.42% gain. If the index cannot hold above the 21d EMA , then the 5 day trend and trend from the 10/12 pivot would point to a -1.50%. This is where the 50d MA line is at and where we’ve seen support from September trading. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Friday, October 23, 2020 We were runnin' against the wind Facts: 0.37% higher, Volume lower, Closing range: 100%, Green Body: +11% Good: Held above key support at 21d EMA Bad: Low volume , not much price movement Highs/Lows: Higher high (by a fraction), higher low Candle: Long lower wick as investors bought up the lows to end nearly where the day started. Advance/Decline: 1.63, more advancers than decliners Sectors: Communication Services ( XLC ) led the day with +0.94% gain. Consumer Discretionary ( XLY ) also had a good day at +0.88%. Expectation: Higher One more day of reversals to close a choppy week. Every day this week had a morning move that reversed once or more by close. Earlier in the week it was higher highs that reversed to lower lows. At the end of the week, it was lows that reversed to close with gains. Today the Nasdaq ended with a +0.37% gain. The candle has a tiny 11% green body and 100% closing range as the day ended at its high, but not much above where it started. There were more advancing stocks than declining stocks at a ratio of 1.63. Volume was lower than the previous day and much lower than average volume over the past few weeks. The index tested the 21d EMA again and stayed above it. The S&P500 had an even tighter range between open and close and ended with a similar +0.34% gain. Communication Services ( XLC +0.94%) had the best gains among sectors fueled by positive gains from social platforms. Consumer Discretionary ( XLY +0.88%) also did well today, with a mix of discount retailers, auto parts and restaurant/service companies doing well. Technology ( XLK -0.11%) and Energy ( XLE -0.49%) were the worst performing of the day. The Russell 2000 capped off a winning week with another +0.88% gain. Google ( GOOG +1.59%) continued the momentum it has gained the last few weeks while Microsoft ( MSFT +0.62%) and Amazon ( AMZN +0.88%) finally found some support with significant gains. Apple ( AAPL -0.61%) and Amazon remain under their 21d EMA and 50d MA lines. The story of the week has been Snap (SNAP +10.78%) which continues to have incredible gains after it’s earnings release. More growth stocks have turned back toward gains which is a positive sign for continued gains next week. Continuing today’s trend into Monday would mean around a +0.66% gain, splitting the difference between the 1d trend line and the trend drawn from the 9/3 correction. The trend from the 9/24 bottom is +2.67% from today’s close and is a possibility if good news comes over the weekend to fuel gains. As the index continues to test the 21d EMA , it’s possible it can find itself below that line. That would continue this past week’s trend to a -1.29% loss and land under the October Support area . Further losses would find the 50d MA and the index would likely get support at that level. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Larger View on the Week This was not an easy week to be trading in the stock market. It started with a huge disappointment on Monday where the market started with gains and then quickly lost them for a 1.65% loss. And the rest of the week traded in the lower half of Monday's range, testing October support area and dipping below the 21d EMA once. the closing range on the week is 44%, not terrible but also not great. There were some good signs. Despite the dip below the 21d EMA, the index recovered and otherwise traded above that key support line. The character of Monday to Wednesday of higher opens and lower closes changed on Thursday and Friday with lows turning into intraday highs and closing at the upper range of the day's candles. The closing range on Friday was 100% as the market was on an uptrend heading into the weekend. That's good support at the current price range to build a base going into next week. US Treasury Yield spreads were up for the week and continue to be on an upward trend since dipping in mid-July. This is a good sign from investors that they staying out of the bond market and in the stock market. Looking at the mega-caps, Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) were down on the week with -1.56%, -3.34% and -2.09% losses respectively. Google (GOOG) and Facebook (FB) had great weeks, with +4.32% and +7.09% gains and driving huge gains in the Communication Services sector, specifically social platform stocks. Pinterest (PINS) had a 20% gain. There was the amazing Snap (SNAP) earnings release and 50% gain of that stock. Twitter (TWTR) was up 10%. Beyond those, there were a lot of mixed results. Many of the growth stocks had a tough week although turned in positive gains on Friday. On a daily average, there were more advancers than decliners, but the value of the declines were bigger. Clearly Communication Services (XLC) was the winning sector of the week, but there was also some back and forth in that race. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) came into the week as the leader, with early gains that faded later in the week. Energy (XLE) had a huge day on Thursday with +4.13% gains that put it at the top of the sectors for a day before giving up the lead to Communication Services on Friday. Financials (XLF) had a good week and Utilities (XLU) continues to turn in consistent performance as a safe bet for conservative investors. It's not often that Technology (XLK) finds itself at the bottom of the sector list, and that is really where to story begins for next week. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- The Week Ahead The next week will be a pivotal one for where the market goes next. The questions for the indexes will be whether they can continue the character change from Thursday and Friday and turn that into gains early in the week. They are still testing key support areas and the 21d EMA, often used by investors as an indicator of market health. Economic news will include New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence and Q3 GDP and are all expected to increase. Positive news in these economic indicators could give the market a boost. However, probably more attention will be paid to big earnings releases happening next week. There is a huge number of earnings reports scheduled, with a high concentration of technology stocks. Given the technology sector just had an awful week and still influences the broader stock market heavily, the positive and negative earnings reports could have a huge impact. Microsoft (MSFT) will announce on Tuesday, 10/27 and Apple will announce on Thursday 10/29. Shopify (SHOP) which has had a huge growth year, also reports on Thursday. Of course, you can't discount the influence of the election and the continuing worldwide pandemic. The election seems to already be priced in, but uncertainty around the results and how the candidates will react in either direction is making everyone nervous. The pandemic is accelerating with new highs in daily case counts and people are watching closely what that does to hospital bed availability and death rates worldwide. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch There are several key levels in the Nasdaq to keep an eye out for and respond accordingly. First on the positive side: 11,642.87 is the current 10d Moving Average. Getting above this line would be a good sign that the turning character from the end of the week is continuing to build momentum. Next would be to make it above the high of 10/12 at 11,965.54 which was the downside pivot day from October gains. Passing 12074.06 would be a new all time high and a clear sign that the bull market is intact and the short September correction is over. On the downside, there are several key levels to raise red flags, many similar to what we watched for last week: 11,400 is the October support/resistance area. The index dipped below this line briefly on Thursday. This is where the 21d EMA is at now. 11,369.29 is last weeks low. Let's hope we do not find a new low this week. Things would get more serious if we went below the 11,300 September support area . A lot of time was spent at this level going back and forth before finally breaking back above. This is where the 50d MA is at now. The next area to watch would be the July support area at 10,600. If we were to see a significant pullback this week, then the hope is we'd at least stop at this level. If we break through here, there is danger of a much more damaging decline. Beyond the July area, there is not much to hold back the index from dropping to the June support area of 10,000. There were only 2-3 days in early July that we were trading between these two levels. At the 10,000 level, there would be a lot of support from the round number psychology as well as the 200d MA. -=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=- Wrap-up Next week will certainly be an intense one to watch. Will we have huge gains from positive economic news and earnings reports? Or will the news disappoint and we have big losses? Or maybe, nothing. Maybe more sideways because investors just want to wait and see on the election and coronavirus news. Either way, it's important to have a plan. Watch for the key levels in the market, and weigh your exposure against the level of risk you see. Making smaller bets and adding after things go you way is a good approach. Raising cash and waiting it out is also a valid strategy for uncertain weeks. Good luck and trade safe!
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 10/23This week it was all about Communication Services (XLC) with the positive earnings beat from Snap (SNAP) driving growth in many of the social platform company stock prices. Utilities (XLU) continues to be a safe bet for investors as a sector that is consistently performing well over the past few weeks. Financials (XLF) also had a great week as bond yields are increasing which is usually a good sign for performance of banking stocks. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) started the week on top but backed off a bit before coming back with some good gains on Friday. Energy (XLE) had a huge Thursday that put it at the top of the the sectors, but it could not hold the lead, backing off a bit on Friday. It's not often that we find Technology (XLK) at the bottom of the list for weekly sector performance. Keep an eye on it as many technology companies will have earnings in the next two weeks.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
Nasdaq Weekly Review - 10/12/2020 - 10/16/2020This is a first attempt at writing up my weekend homework. I look back over the week and review what happened in the market. What were my expectations each day and then what actually happened? What can I learn from expectation breakers? And then I look at what is coming in the week ahead. Monday, October 12, 2020 I'm a keep on chillin', refillin' and flyin' high Facts: 2.56% gain, Higher volume, Closing range: 66%, Green Body: 55% Good: Follow-through day for the Nasdaq. An FTD is a indicator from the CANSLIM system and Investors Business Daily. Bad: Not much, except som selling late in the afternoon Candle: 55% green body with 66% closing range. The almost constant upward movement created a fat green body, but the day finished off with some selling the created a short upper wick. Advance/Decline: 1.17, a few more advancers then declines but not the same breadth as previous week Sectors: Technology (XLK) and Communications (XLC) led the day. Materials (XLB) and Industrials (XLI) lagged behind. Energy (XLE) had an afternoon surge. Expectation: Sideways It was a magnificent start to the week for the Nasdaq with a gap up and +2.56 gain on higher volume . A confirmed FTD for those who follow CANSLIM and IBD. The candle has a fat green body with a 66% closing range and tiny wicks at the top and bottom. It was upward most of the day with some profit taking in the late afternoon. All of the trend lines are on an upward slope. Continuing today's momentum would result in a +2.30% gain and a new all time high. There is likely to be some resistance as we approach that level. So expect a more modest gain from the 5d trend line which is at +0.65%. A small pullback would not be unwelcome to cool things off just a bit. Meeting back up with the trend from the September bottom would mean a -0.92% loss. The trend line from 9/3 is still -4.52% below the current index price. That big of a drop seems unlikely and would require some significant news. But always have a game plan, anything can happen. Tuesday, October 13, 2020 Let There Be Rock Facts: 0.1% Lower, Lower volume, Closing range: 34%, Red Body: 30% Good: Held at the upper range of the previous days price range. Bad: Indecisive inside day with a thinner body, lows and highs were traded two times each Candle: 30% green body, 35% closing range, Inside day Advance/Decline: 0.53, almost twice as many decliners as advancers Sectors: Technology (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLC) led the day while Energy (XLE) had a huge advance near close. Financial (XLF) and Real Estate (XLRE) moved lower on earnings expectations. Expectation: Sideways or Lower The Nasdaq took a breather from the previous days big gains. The index dropped back -0.1% with an inside day. The 30% red body shows some indecision throughout the day with a lean toward bearish in the 34% closing range. It would be better to have that closing range be at least 40% to show more bullish support. Lower volume on the index is good given the bearishness, but SPX had higher volume with a significantly bearish movement. Declining stocks outnumbered advancing stocks at a ratio of 3:2. Continuing today's sideways move would land the index in nearly the same spot tomorrow and also join up with the longer trend from the the 9/23 bottom. Picking back up the 5 day trend would result in a +2.20% gain and a new all time high. There is likely to be more resistance as we approach that level. So I'd expect any gains to be contained within 1.5%, just under the previous all time high. Given the indecisive Tuesday, a more severe pullback is also a possibility. Meeting back up with the trend from early September would result in a -3.67% loss where the index would find support from October trading ranges. Wednesday, October 14, 2020 We're running wild and we're restless Facts: 0.8% Lower, Volume Lower, Closing Range: 24%, Red Body: 53% Good: Held above Monday's lows, so the FTD is still good Bad: Tried but could not find higher ground late in day Candle: 53% red body with 24% closing range, the long red body showed little support for any gains throughout the day. Advance/Decline: 0.38, much more decliners than advancers Sectors: Materials (XLB), Industrials (XLI) and Utilities (XLU) all shared the limelight as investors rushed for safer bets. Expectation: Sideways or lower The Nasdaq continued to rest from it's recent aggressive gains, dropping -0.8%. It's still trading within the highs and lows of the bullish day on Monday. The candle has a 53% Red body with a bearish 24% closing range on lower volume than the previous two days. Declining stocks outnumbered advancing stocks at a 2:1 ratio. Materials, Industrial and Utilities were the top three sectors of the day. Energy started the day strong but faded significantly as trading progressed. Communications was the worst sector for the day, after having a strong showing earlier in the week. Tomorrow will bring updates on Jobless claims, Manufacturing, and Crude Oil inventories. Several 2020 favorites are down significantly after hours including Datadog ( DDOG ), Cloudflare (NET) and Fastly ( FSLY ). Fastly is down almost 30% in postmarket trading after cutting Q3 guidance. Start with the positive trends. The five day trend points to a +2.79% gain for tomorrow, which would take the index to near all time highs. That will probably meet up with resistance and so expect closer to +2.5% as the upper limit. If the index moves back towards the trend from the bottom, then expect a +1.41% gain. Further pullback is certainly possible. Meeting back up with the trend from early September would result in a -2.03% loss where the index would find support from October support lines. Based on today's trading range, it's plausible the index will go sideways more and stay above Monday's low. That would be a great sign of strength at the current level. Thursday, October 15, 2020 Baby come back, you can blame it all on me Facts: 0.47% Lower, Lower volume, Closing Range: 85%, Green Body: 85% Good: Gains through out the day, looks like investors are back in the game after the gap down and previous two day sell off Bad: Undercut the low of Monday Follow-thru day, making that a failed FTD Candle: 85% green body with 85% closing range. Gapped down on open but gains throughout the day. Advance/Decline: 0.99, about as many advancers as decliners Sectors: Energy (XLE) was far out in front for the day, likely on oil supply being lower than expected (leading to higher oil prices) Expectation: Higher The Nasdaq took another small step back having dropped -0.47% but recovering from a much lower morning. It did undermine the low from Monday's follow-thru day. The bullish candle has a 85% green body with a strong 85% closing range after falling off a bit late in the day. Volume was lower than the previous three days (my indicator shows higher volume from QQQ , IXIC volume was lower). There were about the same amount of Advancing stocks as there were Declining stocks. Energy was the leading sector of the day with XLE gaining 1.21% from yesterdays close and gained 3.6% from today's open. Compare that to the SPX which dropped -0.15%. Other sectors that did well included Financials, Industrials and the Consumer Discretionary/Staples sectors. Although the day started with a gap down, it trended upward the entire day. A continuation of that 1d trend would result in a 0.77% gain tomorrow, meeting up with the 5d trend line . The trend from the 9/23 bottom points to a 2.06% gain which would be right under expected resistance near the all time highs. Further pullback is certainly possible. The trend from Monday's pivot (including morning gains) would result in a -1.70% loss where the index would meet up with the September correction trend line and find support from October trading. Friday, October 16, 2020 You took my money, you took my time Made me think everything was fine Facts: 0.36% Lower, Lower volume, Closing Range: 13%, Red Body: 50% Good: The morning seemed to continue previous days strength Bad: Double expectation buster from previous day green, and morning gains, resulting in afternoon disappointment Candle: 50% red body with 13% closing range. Upper wick and lower body represent the disappointing end to the week. Advance/Decline: 0.70, more decliners than advancers Sectors: Investors escaped other sectors to the warm safe comfort of Utilities . Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Technology (XLK) and Energy (XLE) lead the afternoon sell-off. Expectation: Lower The Nasdaq index action today gave us a great summary of the entire week. An amazing start, and a very disappointing end. Just as Monday was an amazing start to the week, today's morning saw gains of over 1% only to disappoint with -0.36% loss by the end of the day. The candle shows it all with an long upper wick, 50% red body, and a dismal 13% closing range. The only positive is that volume continues to be lower indicating shakeout, but not huge institutional selling. Advancing and Declining stocks remained about equal. Utilities ( XLU ) sector was the leading sector of the day. Utilities is the best safe haven for risk-adverse investors who want to stay in equities vs moving to other currency and bond markets for protection. The alternatives just aren't good. Health ( XLV ) also performed well, supported by the increase in COVID19 cases worldwide. The only positive trend line right now is the one drawn from the 9/24 bottom. If the index were to regain that momentum, it would mean a +2.56% gain on Monday. That would also be approaching all time highs and be over the highs from the prior Monday. Let's hope this Monday will be a typical Monday in this environment. The Big Picture The week brought some mixed signals. There were positives. Although it was disappointing to pull back from Monday's highs, the market needed to settle back down from the accelerated gains of the last few weeks. There are some positive signs. The week was still up with a 0.79 gain for the index. The 11671.56 close is still above the 21d EMA and the 21d EMA is still above the 50d MA, but signs of an upward trend. The highest volume day was Monday and the remainder of the week saw continuously lower volume. That indicates there isn't a mass exit of large institutional investors. Low yields on long term bonds and the performance of other typical safe havens is keeping investors in the stock market. The alternative is that there is a lot of money moving to Utilities, Materials and other safer bets vs what drove the big increases over the several months before September. On the other hand, the way Thursday set expectations for Friday and then broke them heading into the afternoon was a red flag. It could be investors just wanted to put money into safe bets like utilities over the weekend, driving down the price of the market leaders. Or it could be a sign of a faltered rally attempt and more downside to come. It will be important to watch for key support levels in both the index as well as the leading stocks. The big four AAPL, MSFT, AMZN and GOOG all ended the week with gains and above 50d moving averages. GOOG was below this key indicator last week and so was a great showing to see it rise above. AMZN had a bit of a tough week, including Friday where it dove below the 50d MA, but the bulls came in and got it above the key line. Several growth favorites (DDOG, VEEV, ZM to name just a few) had dips, but ended the week with solid gains. On the other hand, the revenue forecast from FSLY, which was forced to be disclosed by acquisition activity, felt a bit like a canary in the coal mine. Is there more negative surprises to come? Looking at the sectors, the continued strength of Utilities (XLU) is showing that investors want a safe bet that keeps them in equities. But there is clearly rotations happening throughout each week as opportunities arise for growth in the Technology (XLK), Communications (XLC) and Consumer (XLY/XLP) sectors. Once those growth opportunities stall, everything goes back to Utilities. Energy (XLE) continues to be interesting to watch. Crude Oil prices have stabilized quite a bit from the downward pressures in 2020. As Crude Oil has had gains, the gains have not yet reflected in the Energy sector. So this is a good one to keep watching. Often Energy will lead the sectors as we head out of a bottom. Key Levels for next Week There are several key levels in the Nasdaq to keep an eye out for and respond accordingly. First two on the positive side: Going above Monday's high of 11965.54 would be a great way to start the week. Let's hope Monday will be the typical Monday we've seen recently. Give 10/19 a new name! Passing 12074.06 would be a new all time high and a clear sign that the bull market is intact and the short September correction is over. On the downside, there are several key levels to raise red flags: 11,400 is the October support/resistance area. We did no spend a lot of time in that area so it would not be a huge problem to break below it. This is where the 21d EMA is at now. This would get more serious if we went below the 11,300 September support area. A lot of time was spent at this level going back and forth before finally breaking back above. This is where the 50d MA is at now. The next area to watch would be the July support area at 10,600. If we were to see a significant pullback this week, then the hope is we'd at least stop at this level. If we break through here, there is danger of a much more damaging decline. Beyond the July area, there is not much to hold back the index from dropping to the June support area of 10,000. There were only 2-3 days in early July that we were trading between these two levels. At the 10,000 level, there would be a lot of support from the round number psychology as well as the 200d MA. Wrap-up It will be a week to watch closely which way the market decides to go. We can't fight the market. All we can do is build some expectations, watch for signs of where it will move and then size positions and limit risks as necessary to maximize profits or minimize losses. Good luck and I hope you all have a great week! Did you find this interesting or helpful? Would be great to hear your feedback in the comments. What would you like to be added/removed/changed? I do this primarily for my own education and preparation, but would happy to look at other perspectives and/or data.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
2
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 10/16It was a back and forth week with Technology (XLK), Utilities (XLU) and Energy (XLE) all fighting for the top spot. Even Industrials (XLI) made a late effort to end the week at the top. In the end, the safe haven of Utilities (XLU) won the week as investors fled more volatile stocks for something that everyone needs going into the winter. Heat! Communication Services (XLC) and Technology (XLK) drove the early week gains in the market. But they could not hold on to the lead, nor could they keep the market in it's upward rally. Both faded throughout the week as did the major indexes. Energy (XLE) had a couple good runs through out the week as crude oil prices rose on news that the national supply was lower than expected. Low supply means demand is returning and higher prices. That's good news for the big energy companies, but ultimately investors took profits at the end of the week. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) was doing well early in the week thanks to Apple's (AAPL) breakout on rumors of a new phone. "Buy the rumor, sell the news" is exactly what happened as Apple and XLY pulled back after the new phone was confirmed. Nothing like the soft comforting warmth of having your money in Utilities (XLU). Maybe I should try that.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 10/9Utilities (XLU) was the steady winner throughout the week, even during the pullback caused by fears of no stimulus deal being reached. For money that wants to stay in equities in lieu of low interest rates and uncertain inflation, utilities is seen as the safest sector. So even as stimulus fears mounted, XLU continued to stay strong compared to the S&P 500. Energy (XLE) also had a great week with a big one day gain of 3.75% on Thursday thanks to stability in crude oil prices and analyst projections of strong demand for at least two decades. XLE growth still lags far behind recent gains in crude oil futures. It will take some time to burn off over supply and the tech bubble continues to weigh down this sector (redux of 2000 energy story). However, Technology (XLK) rallied on Friday to take over the second place spot. Advance/Decline lines showing great breadth as big tech shares the love with their smaller siblings. Communications (XLC) was the week's loser, with Facebook (FB) having the most weight in the index. FB did not have a great week, possibly impacted by political focus on the platform.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
GOLD SUPPORT?Thanks for viewing, Short-term short view (not shorting), then long again. I can't see a very good reason for a gold correction other than; - Everything needs to correct - it's never a straight-line move, - It is possible that big banks (possibly even the Custodians for major gold ETFs) are being forced to sell-off reserve assets to cover losses or to put aside as contingencies for what look like to be a future MAJOR banking investigation and likely hefty fines, - The drop will get deeper due to short-term traders using excessive leverage (massive inflow in 2020 of inexperienced traders won't help). But, its not like US government debt, the US Federal Reserve balance sheet, massive money printing, global move away from the USD, or 10 year treasury yields (0.68%) suddenly got any better - so I see no reason for me or anyone else to sell physical gold. This is just a gift to people with the ability to add to their positions really. Yes big institutions and traders will do their thing buying and selling paper gold, but you and me can buy and hold - which negates many of the advantages that major trading houses and hedge funds have over the "small guy." But, even the small players want to know where the price drops are likely to end, so that they can add to their positions. BTFD and all that. So this is where I am targeting for my next buy, like always I don't know if I am right. So I got out my magic number 8 ball and gave it a shake. My TA is just about looking for areas that "line up", areas that people using various methods of determining support and resistance will target. The more that line up the better. So I looked at the 200MA (and extended it with great artistic skill and flair, RSI - which on the daily time-frame is right on the 30 level, support from previous recent price peaks, Fibonacci extensions - assuming a 1:1 extension of wave C, Fibonacci retracement, and I ended up with the blue box. The smaller sliver blue box between 1800 - 1807 is what I am thinking as both the 1;1 extension and a 1.618 extension of what may be the start of wave C down. I will buy here and buy again if it goes lower. Now that the gold/silver ratio is above 80 again, I will also be adding to silver positions in the expectation that silver will again out-perform gold when / if the bull market continues. If the $1800 doesn't hold then watch the 200MA / 0.5 Fib retracement and the recent price peaks to form the next area of strong support in the mid to high $1700s. I see USD2200 as a low estimate for gold by the end of 2020. If you hold positions in bullion ETFs, seriously consider moving to using non-bank bullion vaults (like Bullionstar in Singapore www.bullionstar.com) with secure allocated, low cost, storage. ETFs take what is essentially a riskless asset and add in layers of counter-party risk (Trustees, Custodians, and many Sub-Custodians (that the Custodian does not have the right to audit)). Expect more news of issues with the paper markets and also with the Custodian for the SPDR Gold Trust GLD in 2020.
TVC:GOLDLong
by flyinkiwi10
1
Market Rotation Into Energy (XLE) The past week there was rotation into Energy (XLE). There is precedent for rotations into energy marking tops and continuing as safe havens during corrections. In the bottom chart, you see the rotation happening in September 2018, just before three months of market declines (21% on S%P 500 and 24% for Nasdaq). Looking back further to the 2000 tech bubble, look at stocks like CVX, XOM and SLB. These stocks are going up or sideways while the market is crashing around them. On the other hand, 2018 these stocks fell along with the market. So the question is are we in a correction? If so, is it more like 2000 or 2018? Have energy stocks been held down while the tech bubble grew? Will we see energy stocks climb over the next few months?
AMEX:XLC
by drewby4321
1
The "Mini-SPY" You Might Not Know About - SPLG!SPLG can be considered a miniature version of the infamous SPY ETF; albeit a few minor differences in structure and some other additional factors (available in the SPLG prospectus).1 However, these differences are not very relevant to long-term investors or short-term traders looking to make a strategic move in the S&P 500 Index (SPX). According to ETF Trends “SPLG is a cheaper, modernized S&P 500 alternative to the flagship SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY).”2 SPLG has an expense ratio of 0.03% (compared to 0.09% for SPY). Analysts ratings for SPLG: FactSet: A/95 Morningstar: 5 stars XTF: 9.8/10.0 Additional information about SPLG can be found in the SSGA factsheet.3 1. www.ssga.com 2. www.etftrends.com 3. www.ssga.com
AMEX:SPLGLong
by luminaryfi
SPDW: Another SPDR ETF to add to your long-term portfolioSPDW: Another SPDR ETF to add to your long-term portfolios. Just a reminder: the IRS is allowing contributions until July 15th to your retirement accounts! So, if you have a couple thousand, I strongly recommend taking advantage of opening a Roth IRA. Remember it is never too late to start saving! Another addition I have made to my portfolio is $SPDW. The SPDR Portfolio Developed World ex-US ETF is an excellent way to diversify your holdings to the global market without adding additional exposure to the US Markets. Additionally, $SPDW offers a 3.64% Distribution Yield (TTM) (30 Day SEC yield of 2.84%) without the risks that are commonly attributed to emerging market funds. The fund consists of well-known global corporations; $NESN (Nestle) 1.69%, $ROG (Roche) 1.40%, SMSN (Samsung) 1.26%, $NOVN (Novartis) 1.23%, $SAP (SAP) 0.81%, and $AZN (AstraZeneca) 0.80%. FactSet analysts give the ETF a “A” rating and XTF a 9.4 out of 10.0. The expense ratio of the ETF is miniscule at 0.04%. $SPDW appears to have stabilized from March lows but is still trading below its February highs. It would appear that this fund hasn’t fully recovered but is still an excellent choice for a long-term buy. Long 150 Shares SPDW.
AMEX:SPDWLong
by luminaryfi
1