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SPY- Retrace CompleteBack Testing Ascending Channel. Running into Horizontal Resistance At the resistance of Spy Tops ( Light Blue) With the Market Cycle Conditions and seeing the confluence of resistance all coming int at this area, I would say that this bounce is all but played out. I would expect to see the selling to resume shortly. When we do reverse I would expect us to hit 274 on the next selling spree. If this resistance does not hold then I would expect the next resistance to hold, which would be the inner channel resistance (light green)
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by PipMiesterStronger
1
SPY- Dont Miss This Warning. Since the top, we have been selling off strong, yet in an orderly fashion. In doing so we have broken out of our current Ascending Wedge and Channel. While our break was violent in volatility terms, it wasn't an impulsive breakdown... yet. My read on this tape is we broke our Ascending Wedge and Channel and Friday we attempted a retest of the bottom Resistance at 290. We could see a push up to those levels Monday. Or we could find no strength in these market and sell off aggressively confirming the rejection of the Ascending Channel. We haven't impulsed down drastically and we 'could be' consolidating outside of the channel currently. This could potentially morph into bear flag type consolidation (not unlike BTC around May 7, posted below) Scenario 1 Friday Close, was the high, and we sell Monday hard potentially breaking lows at 282.5, if so we could impulse down to 274 Scenario 2 Push up to the 290 area on Monday- Tuesday and then sell off from there. The failure to get back within this channel is bleeding the bulls dry, they would need to get back inside that zone to hold onto a little more time. If we continue to consolidate outside of this Ascending Channel then I would expect it to be building up the supply of sell pressure for the same large impulse down. Brace Yourselves, This could be a very violent week.
AMEX:SPYShort
by PipMiesterStronger
1
SPY- My arrows knew the wayPotential To reject the backtest of the Ascending Channel's outer limits. This could generate more selling down to 280 for local (short term) support. I the arrows on the chart had been drawn in on my last post's update (attached below) At this point, I have already expressed my Technical Reasons in previous posts for thinking we are in a bear market. And we are going to crash for a long time etc. Recap- 1.5 years of consolidation. 10 years of Bull Market. Started to show signs of a potential bear market. Had a powerful bear market rally. No big picture(weekly) chart changes. Double top. Ascending Wedges. Massive Divergences grinding for 3 months. Impulsive selling with different volume signatures ... Follow my updates because I do more with updates than the original post. We do have a descending wedge forming which could produce a bounce if we get much higher form here. But in bear markets, these things are typically bull traps. From here on out, every bullish pattern you see do a breakout to the upside be very careful about trusting it to have the follow through. Most will be throw overs and fall back within the breakout level and then sell off. * It is difficult to say when we might get a bounce, or relief rally. Holding above 287.6, and getting back into the ascending channel could give us a bigger bounce up (max 290). So here we are at decision time. Favoring the sell off.
AMEX:SPYShort
by PipMiesterStronger
1
XLV recovering for SummerXLV pulled back sharply largely to do with a knee-jerk reaction to the Dems ‘Medicare for all’ (ie Europe-style government health service). Contrast this to the general Dec 2018 market collapse, and we see - a 7.2% W1 rise - a 50% W2 pullback - a W3 repeating the move, and running to the 1.618 fib The price carried on after December, but just anticipating a repeat of that move gives us an entry at 87.75 for 94.00. A 1.4% stop is comfortable (86.50) to give a 5:1 trade. Healthcare is a typically strong summer defensive, and notably (on the daily chart), after the outlier of Dec 2018, kept in its long-term channel in the April collapse.
AMEX:XLVLong
by adatherton
SPY- Kissing ATH's... goodbye.This is not financial advice just a matter of debate. We Broke through ATH's on SPY today. We did not get a large buying spree though. We instead have consolidated right above this highly watched ATH. We are creating an ascending wedge which typically breaks to the down. If we get back below ATH which is only .11% below us, then that would be a rejection of ATH, and I would expect that would make many investors nervous and could cause selling pressure. Looking at charts on small timeframes is natural as we are in the present. But when we look back at charts historically we typically use a daily chart and the little radar blips like this are easily justified. Remember the big picture. This is a very critical area to watch. If we hold above ATH versus Break Below it should be our primary concern. The weak manner in which we pieced ATH, makes me favor the bull trap. Talking Technicals at this point is like a song on repeat. We all know the Bearish Divergences that have been accumulating energy for about 2 months... The declining volume on this 'bear market rally' especially in the last month. RSI readings that have been at historically high levels tied with the top 3 ATH RSI readings in Stock market history. All stochastics have been redlined at overbought including 1-4 hrs, daily and weekly. It's all really just a matter of when. Overall price structure still within the fairly standard bear market rally metrics. Wait for your support to be broken to short. Either one that fits your risk tolerance and risk management. 1. Yellow 2. Purple 3. Next Purple Traders should be looking for a large impulse selling candle or Large Gap down in the market to kick start the crumbling of this house of cards. The price action is and has been moving up but losing momentum as it pushes slightly higher each time. From higher time frames we can see that the price movement up is quite minuscule and is losing steam, one day of selling would take out 2 months up 'gains' A blow-off top is totally possible at any point, and that would be a nice confirmation that the top is in if that were to happen, but it isn't necessary or to be expected as prices can top with or without a blow-off top. Sometimes markets have a way of hypnotizing people. The ups and down waves patterns get people distracted and confused. When things appear to never be going in one particular direction, that's when you need to know that the markets seek balance, but they are also deceptive. I think that last week we hit an important zone of distribution, yet we had a very strange close Friday with price piercing the supply zone at the close. That really just kicks the can to today to see if we get bullish follow through as an organic move would or if it was mostly printed at close for day traders and the typical Friday pump crowd. So far today I haven't seen strong buying, even though we broke ATH on SPY. If it was a real impulse on Friday then I would expect real buying to follow. Personally, I'm writing it off as noise, because this follow through is not a breakout, its printing trap signatures. TIP: If you buying shorts and see that your orders are having difficulty all getting filled together but instead your getting one contract here and a few there splitting your order up... then that is a Wonderful sign. In the classic Book Reminiscence of a Stock Operator, 'When a big wig gets a tip on union pacific to buy it up.. The first thing he did was sold a bunch short, so he could buy it back, and in that manner that his buy orders were getting 'filled' that told him everything he needed to know about the tip and that it was a good tip.' Because his order got bought right up, all in a lump sum, not fragmented. I am unwavering and tenacious. I will not let up on my stance, I will not become a bull unless very convincing evidence where in front of us. I will not lose my position, I will be someone who's right and 'sits tight' for the big moves. Not all bear markets act the same, and there is no way to know if the markets want to push a little higher still to do a backtest of the weekly support line that has been broken. That weekly support line was broken back in December and we are still living under it.. That is kind of like living under the 200 MA. There's a lot of bad mojo for stock prices living below such big time frame important historic support, now resistance. So we could backtest that which is probably 305 or something at which point if that were to occur then that would be the right place to short. SO sit back, don't do anything be patient to wait for supports to be broken OR for a retest of that weekly support which I will get to if we happen to go up from here.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by PipMiesterStronger
1
SPY- Quick draw for a potential quick dropNear ATH. Earnings Catalyst (half way through) "Buy the hype sell the news" Back test of 4 month support line Falling back within our ascending channel & Ascending Wedge Potential Blow off top yesterday It is possible to selling pick up soon from here. It all depends on what kind of follow through and volume we get from here, but to me any area up here is a great short opp even if your wanting to cover in the 270's Many other indices are breaking their 2 day structures. Watch IWM, XLF, QQQ
AMEX:SPYShort
by PipMiesterStronger
2
S&P 500 PREPARE TO SELL: VOLUME DIVERGENCE hey traders, on this chart I want to show you a decent example of a "volume divergence". as you see the market is in a clear bullish movement and approaches the all-time market high. analyzing the volumes you can notice very weak green volumes during bullish days and rising selling volumes during NOT VOLATILE bearish days. for example, selling volume spike on 11th of April is very telling: while the market is going upwards, smart money start selling! volume divergence is a warning sign for us. now we should wait for a confirmation!
FX:SPX500Short
by VasilyTrader
SPX- After Hours DataJust a simple pattern with all of the extended hours of trading printed on the tape. I had been using this chart in my trading, but for some reason, I hadn't posted it yet for you all to see. The details shown in this really makes the SPY chart make more sense, and come alive. When you can track what happens at night you simply get a better picture; the devil is in the details. So here you have it, Clear as Easter Sunday. For 22 days we had been supported by as an ascending channel (support in yellow). Last week we finally broke below that support. At market close on Thursday, we had come back for a beautiful retest of support, and as of Sunday night, we have confirmed that as resistance as we have rejected it so far. Can we still potentially push up to the top of that resistance to 2930? sure. Could we get a blow-off top that gets even higher, of course, we could. Am I very opinionated and calling for this to crash hard tomorrow and through next week? I think so, and unfortunately, that's just my opinion, at this stage in the game there is absolutely NO technical indicator or sign that will tell you one way or the other ( between the three options. ) There comes a point where you have to feel your gut and not argue with your gut, and everyone's gut's different and so then it becomes very personal. If you have solid Technicals, Good Risk Management, Willing to close anything out that does not do exactly as you expected, Control your emotions, and listen to your gut... Then you will be an extremely successful trader. For me, I added shorts to the retest in after hours tonight at open at 2911. I am using a platform that allows multiple entries and leveling at spread cost for commissions. So .. Its so nice compared to buying clumps at $7 per trade. The peak- Our high so far on this bounce hit perfectly with our prior peak to the real ATH. Which of course is obvious resistance, the final resistance (horizontal) before you reach the ATH resistance. But the way that sold off... man... It didn't sell off like normal pullbacks or peaks. It did it differently and I cannot tell you how. Just with more desperation/force maybe? It got slam dunked. I care because I am looking for changes in behavior and that could be a small clue... remember 'the devils in the details' I am very curious about what will happen in the premarket as typically they get the PUMP. If it doesn't, then it is another change in behavior. Almost all of last week was pump at night sell off and distribute into the public bag holders. having a few days of that in a row ends up looking like a hot mess on the daily chart when looking at their candles. Right in the middle, we got a bearish engulfing and we did close red Thursday after that. We had similar daily candle bars right before we had our biggest drawback yet on this bounce around March 3. Use, SPY chart for viewing those candles. I think that the final purple support break will be the most impulsive break of the lines, as it will be a no doubt about it break. But I do like to get my self some wiggle room, as break out trading can be risky business. Can we push a little higher, Of course, we can. We could even break the ATH. But just be ready at any moment because things are getting shaky in the different sectors and across currencies as well. Many things are sitting right on significant supports right now, so be ready to jump on the Da Bears Train, next stop crash town.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by PipMiesterStronger
1
Spy- Top finally In? The big moment of truth is finally before us. From these high levels, the next few years will be determined. Rejecting from here does not prove anything. Even, the bulls are looking for a healthy correction to regain the momentum for SPY to raise up like a cobra and strike (Ref: crypto legends). Now, we are "Melted Up" like crazy. In fact, a little too close to the sun, Icarus. I will be the first to admit that I really Expected a much quicker turnaround on this bounce, as I called it, "a dead cat bounce." This has gone above and beyond my expectations, which is a lesson about expectations about an organic, intractable, unpredictable, global market. This next few months will be our moment of truth. Personally, I am looking for a pullback to kick the scales back in balance. We have declining volume for a few weeks now, and overall declining volume since that fated Christmas day. Divergences that have been painfully grinding without release. Monthly RSI levels are at absolutely overdone levels (higher than the 08 and 00 Bear markets rallies, which only leads me to believe that if we get our bear market then it will be a real doozy.) All higher levels stochs overbought 2hr all the way to Weekly. As you practice technical analysis you learn your style, your methods, risk tolerance and understand your own emotions better. I have also learned that when you have a confluence of technical factors 4+ different confluence you must go with that if you don't then what are you doing in this game. Emotions are a different beast. They are the second half of the war. From my previous posts, you can see the extremes that I have gone in my calls. I had called the top around Sept 27 in my analysis, and the breakdown entry at 286.68 on October 8 As my preferred entry for shorting as it confirmed a bull trap. I also made very clear importance about the breakdown of the 262.5 support on December 14 that had been advised that after that point we will officially be in a bear market at the break of the 21 monthly. Finally, on the day after Christmas, I posted a chart called "Closing time" about getting out of your shorts at the bottom of the bounce. I could even go as far out and say I was one of the first people to post on TV about a potential Bear market in the SPY, possibly in end July/August. And with all of that excellent technical analysis, as Krown's Crypto Cave advocates, "we are only as good as our previous trade." And I had been calling the top of this bounce from its inception and had "exected" it to roll over at every fib retrace, every overbought stoch, and any other technical indicator that can so easily be used to reinforce your own sentiment. I wanted to have a moment of honesty for all of you traders to focus and talk emotions. Trading in Zone, advocates that "you can have poor technical and still be profitable if you have control over your emotions." We had a very interesting close yesterday as we printed our first bearish engulfing daily candle and I am watching closely today for the needed follow through. I am looking at 288.88 as my horizontal support, if broken would be putting us securely back into the ascending wedge pattern and should kick start this thing. I have seen extreme weakness in these last few days, and can almost smell it in the air, that the times are a changing. All stochs overdone, Daily Chart declining volume and long term divergence now, all of the technicals are there and have been there, just now we are seeing the fear and weakness to put the first crack in the hull. After we retrace and get a bounce how hard and how will what I will be looking at for confirmation of bear market. I know I am very early to call that, but I am a biased bear.
AMEX:SPYShort
by PipMiesterStronger
4
SPY- Distribution Or Accumulation?I just posted a smaller timeframe highlighting the bearish Gartley that we have on the small timeframes at this critical level. We broke through the top of the ascending channel- which is a bearish pattern and they typically break down not up and out. We are flirting with this line on the small time frames and this is why I wanted to get the Gartley pattern out to people to see. The fact that we broke this area, but are not doing so impulsively is concerning to me. Also the lack of volume on this breakout and at large. Over the past few weeks, volume has been on the decline and this signals that the people buying are not doing so out of conviction. My trade Idea is simply-- IF we get back within this ascending channel then it would be bad for the bulls. Getting back within this channel and breaking through my short term support line colored in yellow, would be even worse for the bulls. You could take trades off of either one. Price could continue a little higher into horizontal resistance, or it could fade from here back into the ascending channel and then start massive selling. Not sure which way It will go Up first then down or down from here and more down. But I can definitely say --- that this thing is RUNNING out of Steam. Outlined on the chart are the different reasons I remain bearish on SPY. Even the bulls must agree that a retracement is needed whether we are in a bull market or bear market, but the million dollar question remains... which market cycle are we in....... We have some horizontals marked, including the all-time high (ATH) horizontal. I prefer the horizontal that is near us now, it is not as significant as the all-time high or the January top, but similar to a head and shoulders pattern; I would expect distribution to kick in not allowing it to reach that ATH level. It could get close to ATH, with a blow-off top to put the nail in the coffin complete with a large spike in Volume, anything goes up here. But once this thing starts to go down, it could do a large impulse at first and only the tenacious will be ready for that. Note- Attached is the Gartley in a smaller TF's chart. Stay Safe, Stay Snappy.
AMEX:SPYShort
by PipMiesterStronger
2
SPY- Ascending Channel Within Ascending Channel- Which I am looking for an eventual break down below the white support trendline. Once this channel breaks to the downside I would be looking for selling to increase in an exponential fashion over the next 2 months. But we are not there yet so, we are still within our consolidation range at highs. On a small 5 min timeframe, we have an ascending wedge from today's price action. I will be expecting a final push up with topping volume (large volume on a small TF chart like 5min) Then I would be looking for a gap fade for the rest of the next few days. Most all of our stochastics are overbought, most importantly our 1-4 hr. On a daily chart, this whole ascending wedge that we have been in for a month has produced bearish divergence. This is very significant and is why upon breaking down from this ascending channel I would be looking for selling follow through. We had formed a bit of a mini- Inv. H&S last week, which today has played out to its measured move at 284.16, which tells us there's nothing in the charts saying we need to get any higher. I do expect some very immediate impulse up in order to form a formal top for this ascending wedge on the 10 min. Followed by selling for the rest of the day and next few days.
AMEX:SPYShort
by PipMiesterStronger
SPY- Broadsword calling DannyboySorry, I haven't updated in two days I've been stricken by a terrible case of the flu. Ascending Broadening Wedge Pattern, for about 10 days. These are distributive in nature and usually end up in selling down, especially when they are ascending (expanding to the upside) We broke MAJOR resistance at 281 right? Yes we did, but after two weeks have yet to have done anything impulsively. We should have had an impulse within the first few minutes or seconds of breaking out of the major resistance. The fact that we got above a major level without impulsing or having aggressive buy volume come in is a big red flag. This further points to a potential Bull Trap (as my last post was titled) A bull trap is confirmed once we break back below that same 'major resistance' at about 281; or, once we break the horizontal bottom of this current broadening ascending wedge pattern 280.23. Also, keep your eye on a break of the blue channel I have drawn. This is a nice set up for a triple confirmation of a breakdown and to make it easy you could just say 280 is the major level that I am watching. We do finally have significant bearish divergence now that we have had a high (Feb 25) and then a higher high (March 18 & Yesterday). The yellow line on the RSI shows the divergence. Nasdaq and SPY are the only areas of the market that have continued higher since Feb 25!!!!!!! Dow Jones (DJI) has not made higher highs in the last two weeks Midcaps (MDY) have not made higher highs in the last two weeks Russell 2k (IWM) has not made higher highs in the last two weeks And many many other indicies. QQQ- has increased in value but it has not broken any sturcture. QQQ is a nasdaq composite that is overall down except for the FAANG stocks which have been the lionshare of QQQ's upwardmovement as they are a flight to safety (reference: Right Side of the Chart video 1 or 2 days ago) SPY - has broken structure but has not done so impulsivly strongly implying a bull trap (ref: last analysis, titled, "bull trap?") I will provide updates to this analysis on the DJI, MDY, IWM for you to see what I am talking about for thier big picture weakness, in about 2 hours when I return. No trade to make short until 280 is broken with stops above that level and or the highs. : ) happy trading. I have to run-I was in a bit of a rush- if i forgot somehthing I will update this analysis.
AMEX:SPYShort
by PipMiesterStronger
2
LOOKING AT THE 2019 RECESSION FROM A ELLIOT WAVE PERSPECTIVE This analysis is purely written from an Elliot Wave perspective. There are no macroeconomics or any other economic theories involved. SPY: Looking at Monthly SPY, we had the completion of wave 1 in 2000. Followed by a recession in 2001-2002. We then had a pullback to the 2000 high, which then ended up double topping and then falling to lows in 2008. This is a clear ABC Flat, where a flat either ends at 1:1 retracement or a 1.272 retracement. As we can see on the chart we ended in a 1.272 retracement and began recovering again. Which resulted in a huge impulsive 3rd wave up. In Elliott Wave Theory wave 3 is the most impulsive wave of all. I've made a 5 wave subcount inside the 3rd wave, which has a extended 5th sub wave, which ends at a 2.618 extension. This is because wave 3 closed below the 1.618 extension. The 2.618 also concludes with the overall 5 waves count, where the 3rd wave ends at 2. extension. (yellow wave). This suggest that we will see a retracement back to (most likely) a 0.5 fib extension of the 3rd wave (yellow). DOW: To keep this short, we are seeing almost the exact same pattern with DOW. We have a 3rd wave ending at a 1.618 extension (instead of the .2 extension on the SPY.). If we count the subwaves of the 3rd (yellow) wave, we have a 5th subwave ending at a 2.618 extension like we had with SPY. We would now expect the same ABC retracement to the 0.5 Fibonacci of the 3rd wave. Conclusion: Overall we see overbought levels with both the SPY and DOW, this will lead to a recession, which could be worse than the financial crisis in 2008 and the great depression in 1930. I expect a 35-40% drop in these indexes.
DJ:DJIShort
by LukeSkywalker
1
SPY-Bull Trap?So far it looks like a nice rejection on the perfect opportunity to make a breakout. This market is really trying to trick everyone.. C'est la vie. My previous post had the multiple updates, and I included a particular moment when we wicked down, but were bought back up while near the Red Danger zone. This was the area that needed to hold on the small timeframes, and the wick didn't have strong volume coming in. You can see from the last update on my last post, that this is what tipped my hat to knowing this thing will probably crumble. (Please see related Idea below and scroll to the bottom of the many updates) Now we have support coming in at 281, once that breaks the markets will deflate. I can see us staying within a range for the next few weeks between 271.5 - 281. This could last for who knows how long.. 2 months ... 2 weeks... 2 days. I am not sure. On the smaller time frames, we see a nice volume bar coming in when we hit 281, this will be our local bottom and a great place to use for entries or exits as the volume confirms its significance. The rejection of the breakout today has not been confirmed, but will be confirmed if we close the day below the highs, and more specifically I like the 281 level for now. Until that breaks expect more chop. After that breaks next major support will be our Larger Time Frame Ranges of 282-271.5. Give a like if you want more minute by minute updates.
AMEX:SPYShort
by PipMiesterStronger
5
Shorters Dream - A Projection of 1st Qtr 2001 QQQThe price action we've seen since October looks a lot like the tech bubble of Y2K. The combination of mean aversion and valuation levels like this have only occurred two times in the past(1929,2000). Corporate buy backs and excess leverage(everywhere) where also traits of these historical crashes. Using the first tech bubble as a model, I've projected what might happen. Truly a shorters dream. This applies to both QQQ and SPY as they are rather synced right now and where one goes the other will follow quickly. IF .....it plays out in the same fashion then we will end the downhill run around April 4th or 5th(QQQ) at 117 and around March 25th for SPY at 215. Both, will ready for another furious bear rally at those points in time. Sort of scary... Hey, its an idea. We'll see.
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by not-abot
2
SPY - Strong Hands I will not be fooled into thinking that there will be no bear market like many others are starting to doubt. We finally have a nice clear higher timeframe bearish divergence seen on the 4 hours. As of this point in time the only divergences could have been seen on the 1 hr. Fed broadcast yesterday was interesting because he really didn't reveal anything that new, and still refers back to their original plans as a good plan. Note: Very interesting question one reporter (maybe wall st journal) when asked about market collapse could provide an opportunity for us to beat out some of these emerging markets in the long term economic power struggle. Watch that part of the Q&A and how Powell reacts. I had been trading off of this purple flag consolidation period since October 16 (yes in fact before it was even tested and found supportive on Oct 29th I had already had it penciled in. Now we are coming back within its realm and are currently barely inside of it by a hair. Great time to get BULLISH because we broke through resistance and so now its support right? I think not, at least not in my book. To me, this is the confusion/ gray areas in technical analysis that is needed for institutions to get their liquidity and be able to get out of the market/and or get short. These markets are slow movers, but these past 3 months have actually been in hyperspeed compared to its typical trading ranges/volatility. If we were to actually be bullish I would heavily lean toward the need for a double bottom or something similar. In fact, to me the fact that we have had very little pullbacks within this bounce makes me assume that we will go down the same way we came up. Without a lot of relief rally/retracements. Levels are pretty easy, but timing this beast really isn't. I'm not into fractals but when figuring the timing I am more or less creating a mirror image of how it came up and giving it a little bit of buffer time in its consolidation could be a good place to start. This market will need time to work itself out so I provided a random path (charted above) that the market could take over the coming months, but there is absolutely no way to predict the timeframes with markets. As one person said (skyman9025) on here who I must repeat, "How can we go from the longest bull run in history to the shortest bear market in history" To base our bull market versus bear market I personally am in the camp on the 21 Monthly EMA which is now below us. But being on a monthly it deserves some wiggle room and patience. It comes in at about 262. Some others like to use the 50 v 200 daily MA's and depending on which is above the other, with this technique we are still bearish as well. Our daily stochastic is back in the overbought regions after doing a bit of a fake out the last time at this point of the bounce and how we had been living in the overbought area for so long, came out of it and came right back into with no overbought conditions just keeps ammassing more selling energy ready to release. I have plotted the 200 MA on the 4 hr chart. So far it has done a great job at acting as resistance for price action. We will see if it continues or not. For me, the market would have to do some extreme things to get be bullish long term. It would be a start if it can comfortably live for an extended period (wks) of time within my purple consolidation flag once again and not just be a short term break and fade. I will say that this bounce has been stronger than I anticipated. But, other traders, as well as myself, assumed that we would either come short of the 260 highly watched areas or surpass them, in order to blindside them or to shake out the market participants. Now I assume was doing the shake out. We could even go up to 280 resistance, and I still would remain Bearish on this market long term. Expect fake outs, expect bull traps.. .expect to experience the ruthlessness of the bourgeoisie trying to hold onto their exclusive rights to make money shorting this market off the backs of the blue collar backbone 401ks.
SP:SPXShort
by PipMiesterStronger
SPY-Ascending WedgeWill We finally Break the Ascending Wedge that we have been in for almost a month? If we break down and continue down, then we have gotten a very big fat bull trap by getting above some resistance levels last Friday. We had a nice 4 day weekend to contemplate how prices could now flip bullish. Many people that were bearish started to think like a bull, they had to derisk based on their trading rules. This gave some much-needed liquidity to the institutions. Was it enough liquidity for them to get out and go short? Who knows, but I still hold true to my bearish bias. We also have had some very interesting fake out its the lunar cycles as well, which is in perfect confluence with this recent "possible" bull trap. We still have the daily stochastics in overbought and crossed. High RSI Levels. General Declining Volume on the "dead cat bounce" signaling reversal. We will be rejecting the 21 monthly EMA if we continue down from here and especially if we close below these levels by the end of the month. We still have the Bearish divergence on the 1 hr chart and that has been in tact for almost two weeks. We have had bearish price movement, and to expect a V bottom out of that with all of the larger time factors as well as deep fundamental timebombs in our economy. I will keep being bearish unless we do some longer-term consolidation within the purple flag (above 265) and above the 21 monthly EMA for an extended period of time.
AMEX:SPYShort
by PipMiesterStronger
SPY- Update- Top in Divergence 1 week & 2 days of Bearish divergence, 1 hr chart. Daily Stochastic has touched once and crossed once. It's well above the 80, touched 100, and is starting it's decent and is currently at 98.7. IMO its Very Overbought. Since we are in consolidation and we are not trending I can have confidence in the Stochastics. The 1 hour, 2 hours, 3 hours, and 4-hour stochastics are also in the overbought areas which definitely add an extra Major horizontal support from the previous consolidations lows. 50 EMA Daily coming in at the current price levels What else can I say? VIX.. has come down and now has a lot of room that it can go up again.
SP:SPXShort
by PipMiesterStronger