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Speculation

Let's Talk About Bad Luck and Downtimes In TradingAbout bad luck and downtimes in trading. Let's discuss the downtimes that traders may face. While everyone experiences them, some traders can maintain a calm mindset, while others may collapse under the pressure. What sets them apart? As I mentioned in my previous articles, trading involves risks, much like gambling. If you're seeking a risk-free investment, consider options like bonds or long-term investments. Even with a positive expected value, trading can encounter terrible consecutive losses. For instance, my index swing trading strategy has a win rate of around 40% and a profit-to-loss ratio of 5 or higher, which sounds promising. However, the reality is that consecutive wins and losses are inevitable. A 40% win rate implies the following chances: - Around an 8% chance of experiencing five consecutive losses. - Around a 5% chance of experiencing six consecutive losses. - Around a 3% chance of experiencing seven consecutive losses. - Around a 2% chance of experiencing eight consecutive losses. How many consecutive losses can you handle? Can you keep your emotions in check? Can you survive the phase of self-doubt and questioning the strategy's correctness? These are all crucial factors. The most critical aspect is always capital management, ensuring that you retain profits and avoid being eliminated by the market. When feeling down, it's essential to accept your emotions and not avoid them. Embrace yourself and the imperfections of your trading. Take a break and improve your mood. Only trade when you can maintain a rational mindset. Go for a walk, chat with your family and friends, enjoy good food, and appreciate the beauty of the world beyond trading. Although it's against human nature, keeping an open mind and discussing your loss situation with others can be helpful. This helps you face yourself honestly, rather than trading for self-esteem or self-display. Trading goals should focus on making money, self-realization, improving life, and helping those in need. Always remind yourself. Evaluate the feasibility of the strategy, the ability to withstand consecutive losses, and manage your money well. Be aware that downtimes may occur at any time, but long-term positive expected value trading will lead you in the right direction. I hope this article can be helpful to you. I'm trader Beta, and you can also find me if you need a psychological coach. Wish you all the best of Luck while trading.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by Eleta1228
(For beginners) Investing/Speculation -Developing Trading PlansInvesting/Speculating for Beginners First, let me talk about my views on the difference between investing and speculating, as well as some trading plans and ideas I have compiled from reading books. I hope that after reading this article, you can save some time on reading other books XD. The purpose of investing should be to achieve "stable asset growth", and good investments should accumulate assets in almost risk-free situations, bringing stable returns of 10% or less per year. "As the recent bond investment return rate is considerable, wealthy people are all doing it." The purpose of speculation is to seek higher returns in the short term based on specific events, market conditions, and analysis. However, it also requires bearing corresponding risks, with returns and risks ranging from 10% to any percentage. (The so-called almost risk-free depends on the individual, and having insider information is also risk-free. The above definition is my own. I believe that over 90% of my trades are speculation, not investment.) Since I have said that investing is almost risk-free, the main topic of discussion will be speculation. I will consider some details before, during, and after trading. ----------------------------------------------------------------- "Before Speculative Trading" Some details I will consider: 1.Risk assessment of the trade. In extreme cases, how much money will be lost? Good fund management ensures that you will never fail. 2. Assessment of expected returns and the maximum percentage of potential losses. Make cost-effective trades and trade when there is a good chance of winning. 3. Analysis of the entry price. If there is no good position, abandon the trade and look for the next opportunity. 4. Planning for the start of trading, the basis for the target price and stop-loss price, whether to move the stop-profit and stop-loss in specific circumstances, and whether to exit directly if the original trading basis is lost. 5. The impact on life. Will the psychological pressure after the trade affect life and work? Is there time to cope with unexpected situations during trading? ----------------------------------------------------------------- "Start Trading" Prepare well before trading and execute according to the original plan. ----------------------------------------------------------------- "After Trading" 1. Reflect on where the trade went wrong, whether the plan was not followed, and whether the pre-trade assessment was misjudged. 2. Do not be overly pleased or upset because of the result of a single trade. With a 50% chance of success even when tossing a coin with closed eyes, what needs to be done is to accumulate a trading strategy with a long-term positive expected value. With the logic of making big profits and small losses, one can have the Holy Grail of trading. If you can't win, review your strategy and conduct backtesting. 3. Speculation requires accumulating long-term trading records to determine whether the trading strategy is successful. At least 1,000 trades are needed to have some reference value, and short-term success or failure does not necessarily represent right or wrong. 4. When making money, take it out and feel its weight to avoid getting lost in the world of money and decreasing the quality of risk management.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by Eleta1228
DIS Pre-Earnings RunDisney is in the retail news a lot these days but the chart has a pre-earnings run in anticipation that Year over Year financials will look a lot better than it did most of 2022. This stock has been as high as $200 a share so it has plenty of room to continue upward. HOWEVER, it is over-speculated right now so profit-taking on the earnings release, good or bad, and probably a gap, are highly likely. This is WHY earnings strategies for swing traders require that you prepare 2-4 weeks in advance so that you're already in the stock ahead of the earnings report. There are smaller funds and retail groups in the mix at this point.
NYSE:DIS
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
EURUSD Smart Money ConceptsWelcome, fellow speculators. Here I have EURUSD which I have assessed as being bullish due to evidence of the market structure forming higher highs and higher lows via my 15M-4H timeframes. I want to see price give a pullback to my deepest order block which I have refined with my Fibonacci retracement tool. I have set an alert above my speculated entry level so I can properly assess the price action before aiming to enter. I want to see positions become liquidated before even pondering entering into my long position. Trust & Patience -KWH
Long
by Harbmayg
2
MARKET BOTTOM PREDICTION!!! DXY & ES1! (MACRO ANALYSIS)DESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a MACRO ANALYSIS of DXY. And what should only be taken as SPECULATION & as a POSSIBILITY since patterns tend to repeat themselves. The chart above includes an overlap of DXY & ES1! in an effort to observe their inverse & parallel relationship. POINTS: 1. DXY shows a COMMON DEVIATION of 10 POINTS justifying the placement for SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKETS. 2. A VERTICAL YELLOW LINE is indicative of a MARKET PEAK. 3. A VERTICAL GREEN LINE was placed after a VERTICAL YELLOW LINE to signify when MARKET BOTTOMED. *IMPORTANT:Between every MARKET TOP & every MARKET BOTTOM DXY FLUCTUATES a total of 20 POINTS BEFORE THE MARKET 5. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION to the recession of 2007 - 2009. After DXY saw its first 20 POINT FLUCTUATION DXY hit 80 and bounced back to 90 POINTS. 6. Moving onto RSI we can see that DXY COMMITS to its RSI TREND throughout a RECESSION which does in fact lead me to believe that current RSI levels for DXY will follow a Down Trend similar to what was seen from 2000 to 2003. SCENARIO: - With all this in mind we can speculate that DXY will CAPITULATE to 95 POINTS before seeing a bounce allowing current UPTREND CHANNEL for DXY to find some CONSOLIDATION. This will also allow RSI too COMPLETE a DOWNTREND SIMULTANEOUSLY. *PREDICTION: If DXY is to fall to 95 POINTS that would be the equivalent of ES1! falling too 3,600 OR SPY to 360* TVC:DXY CME_MINI:ES1! AMEX:SPY
TVC:DXYShort
by DGSTBROKERACC
XRP VOLATILITY EXPECTATIONXRP is one of the most controversial cryptos out there, soon to be 2 years since SEC opened a case against Ripple Labs. for distribution of unregistered securities. There are many rumors out there that a settlement might happen later today on the 15th of December 2022. This calls for volatility on the asset either way, if there is a settlement and if there is no settlement. Many retail investors will wait for a fat green or red candle and many orders are expected to be placed based on sentiment and speculation. Might be a good run for intraday trading. 3 major central banks will also hold Interest rate sessions on the 15th, which based on historical data might be shaking the markets all day as well. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSD
by legacyFXofficial
1
Is Volatility the New Normal? Hi I'm Goose and I'm apparently obsessed with the VIX this week. I would say I've reached a point of borderline stalker, going through historical data, working up average all time range theories, and ultimately writing a script that will give me a bar count inside and outside of a date and price range and the percentage of time during that period that the VIX has gone wild. I used this script compare these statistics across the daily chart in different sections of time. Now, I did this because I am anticipating a return to mean with the VIX any moment now. I'm tapping my fingers and getting impatient. And not because I'm waiting for a rally, I mean, a rally would be cool, but because this has gone on long enough really. So I decided to compare the 2008 Crash historical data with the more recent Covid data. If you haven't read the in's and out's, the timeline and the reasons why, go do that right now. Or just watch The Big Short a couple of times for the cliff notes. But for the sake of this chart, I marked up some of the important moments during what is now known as the Housing Crisis/Great Recession. Theoretically I could have made arguments to drag this period out to 2014, but comparably it makes little sense and frankly, even further drives my theory, so I ended the period when the market had recovered its 50% losses from pre crash peaks. Keep in mind, current markets recovered and S&P Futures made a new high in just under 6 months from the Covid Crash. So this is already an unfair comparison. And that is kind of my point. Comparable factors like unemployment and U.S. Homeownership are actually contradictory for the most part if you omit the summer of 2020. And if you're in the group, as I am, that believes low unemployment numbers promote higher inflation numbers, then we could argue inflation begun, albeit transitory, in May and July of 2018 when unemployment dropped below 4% and really got a foothold in 2019. All it needed was a supply chain interruption. And I know Covid takes the blame for that, but that had started also. China trade, pine beetles, metal shortages, coffee , etc... So when Covid whooped the employment numbers 10 points from March at 4.4%, to April at 14.7%, it basically created a sling shot effect with equities. Come August of 2020 when those numbers rapidly dropped to 8.4% we made brand new highs. And within a year we had dropped back to where we started in the upper 4% range. I know I'm on a tangent, but why is this important? Because in the Covid Market, we turned those numbers around in 1 year, as opposed to the 5 years it took to recover AFTER the end of the Recession and its 5 year recovery. Soooo... That's why I'm not counting that period, and why I'm calling out VIX on is behavior. So lets get to my point. Is the new normal volatile AF ? As it currently stands, and based on a range of $10-$20 dollars which I determined to be fair visually for the initial part of this work up, the VIX has spent 5% more days above the standard range. Now 5% isn't a deal breaker. We can find dramatic headlines that will excuse random volatility but I will argue we are at a crossroads. If we continue to stay above $20, we risk having to work hard and longer to get that figure back down. Remember calculating your GPA , but in reverse. Eventually the shock and awe of a +$30 VIX won't induce the same FOMO reaction and things may get really weird. When VIX goes into the new year, the powers that be will need to reign her in to avoid decoupling on any given Wednesday instead of just low liquidity holidays. My theory actually goes further down the rabbit hole when I narrowed down a true 50% average range, wait for it.... $10 - $16.75! YES! The overall, from inception, average high of range sits at $16.75. And pop on the tin foil hat because with that range, both the Housing Crisis/Great Recession AND the Covid Market are sitting at 91% above range. I checked that 3 times to be sure and I did not include that in the frame of this chart as it already had enough scribbling all over it, but if you explore to the bottom of the chart you will see a smashed up mess of it. So if your listening Market Makers, shut it down, shut it down now. And if that is what you are setting up to do as I have already speculated in a previous work up, well done! Keep it up. I know for a fact that the VIX is heavily relied upon by many successful traders in many different products for directional bias, let's not ruin it shall we... On this chart you will see the table bar counts for inside and outside of price range for the specified period as well as the total bar count and the percentage of bars outside of that range. That means up OR down so the period between the Recession and Covid has 12% outside of range, but you will notice that it goes below the range as well. When the price range was moved down beneath the lows to $8, it lowered the percentage by 3 points. I have also labeled some fun facts that occurred during the historical period to show a bit about why I choose the dates that I did. Leave a comment for a heated debate, or to tell me how cool I am, or that I'm just a silly Goose. en.wikipedia.org www.statista.com data.bls.gov
TVC:VIX
by goofoffgoose
5 LESSONS from the Bear MarketHi Traders, Investors and Speculators 📈📉 Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Daytime job - Math Teacher. 👩🏫 Bearish markets are a normal part of the economic cycle, but even after years and years of repeating processes and patterns, it can still be hard to embrace. The real value of a bear market may be that it gives investors the opportunity to gear up for the next cycle, in other words to accumulate and buy in cheap. It also helps you see the importance of managing your risk and diversification. For example - let's say you've invested 100% of your free cash into Bitcoin. IF Bitcoin were to trade sideways or lower for a longer period, lets say months, you have no capital left to invest in other potential opportunities. You are also missing out on rallies that may be happening across other markets. Your portion of diversification is definitely dependent on your initial capital investment, but try to diversify as far as your capital allows. For savvy investors, a bear market also creates a period for looking beyond emotional headlines and studying the hard facts — facts that can ultimately place them in a position to take advantage of coming opportunities. Periods of falling prices are a natural part of investing in the stock market. Bear markets follow bull markets, and vice versa. They are considered the “ebb and flow” of wealth accumulation. Now, let's take a look at 5 Things YOU should remember during the Bear Market : ❗ Periods of falling prices are a common part of investing / speculating ❗ An investment’s value will be greatly influenced by fundamental factors, and sometimes fundamental factors is enough to create a bullish or bearish market for that assets and related assets ❗ Diversification , (even though it does not protect anyone against losses), often provides the safest haven against the ebb and flow of fluctuating markets ❗ Invest over time, rather than make single lump-sum purchases. In other words, falling prices are the friends of dollar cost averaging investors ❗ Take a long-term view when investing in the stock market. Short-term fluctuations are natural. Try to invest in projects that are undervalued , rather than jumping in whilst a coin is in the middle of a parabolic rally. Check out this idea on ETH that covers dollar-cost-averaging: Remember that you’ll be bombarded with all kinds of economic information during both bear and bull markets. There will be reports, for example, about inflation, interest rates, and unemployment figures that may encourage you to either give up on the market or invest in it. To avoid being lured to either extreme, develop a financial strategy that accounts for risks you find comfortable. Then trust yourself and stick with the plan. _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
Short
by CryptoCheck-
30
📖 Jesse Livermore famouse Quotes 📖Jesse Livermore famous quotes: “Don’t take action with a trade until the market, itself, confirms your opinion. Being a little late in a trade is insurance that your opinion is correct. In other words, don’t be an impatient trader.” - Jesse Lauriston Livermore. “There is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.” - Jesse Lauriston Livermore. “He will risk half his fortune in the stock market with less reflection than he devotes to the selection of a medium-priced automobile.” - Jesse Lauriston Livermore. “Losing money is the least of my troubles. A loss never troubles me after I take it. I forget it overnight...” - Jesse Lauriston Livermore. “Profits always take care of themselves but losses never do.” - Jesse Lauriston Livermore. “Go long when stocks reach a new high. Sell short when they reach a new low.” - Jesse Lauriston Livermore. “It is not good to be too curious about all the reasons behind price movements.” - Jesse Lauriston Livermore. 🚀 Follow profile for more! 🚀
Education
by InvestMate
26
Elon musk effect in DOGE on SNLJust a quick throwback to when DOGE dropped after Elon Musk SNL. I remember going short before the show, it was a super risky and speculative move but it ended up paying off. At the time, I had an 1000 megabytes internet speed (totally insane in Latin America), and I was watching the show on youtube. Either with that, the price dropped 2 seconds before I even heard Elon say the word “hustle”. This made me think about how someone could react that fast, or how is it possible to develop a program that only with recognizing the word “hustle” in a video, will execute a short position.
by chowi1
How do you feel?If you check at least 3/5 on the below we might be in the right place. 1. Depressed 2. Tired 3. Stressed 4. Scared 5. Out of money to buy more I do not know about you but I have been through all of the above over the last 12 months! I made tons of mistakes no doubt about that! BUT i wIll not make the biggest one, panic sell at the bottom or in the first rally! Some things to consider when you try to draw the picture of the next 6-12months 1. Advertising Costs or User Acquisition Costs ⬇ + NPS ⬆ ( What's doing Meow Meow on the roof???) 2. Shipping Costs + Shipping time ⬇ 3. West Disposable Income ⬇ Why is Peter Selling? well, for a buyout to take place at least >50% of shareholders must agree! Now retail holds 39% + the previous 10% of Peter before starting selling makes 49%! you understand how dangerous that was for the Funds that they wanted to take over right? Probably the price is already set! nobody else besides peter is selling here! Now have a look here: Vijay's Contract "Restricted Stock Units. Subject to the approval of the Company’s Board of Directors or its Compensation Committee, you will be granted an award of Restricted Stock Units (“RSUs”) for that number of shares of the Company’s Common Stock equal to $12,000,000 divided by the average closing price of a share of the Company’s Common Stock as reported on Nasdaq during the full calendar month prior to your Start Date, rounded down to the nearest whole share + "Stock Options. Subject to the approval of the Company’s Board of Directors or its Compensation Committee, you will be granted an option to purchase that number of shares of the Company’s Class A Common Stock equal to $16,800,000 divided by the average closing price of a share of the Company’s Common Stock as reported on Nasdaq during the full calendar month prior to your Start Date, rounded down to the nearest whole share (the “Option”)" The average closing price prior to the Start Date meaning Dec 21 was around $3.2 giving to Vijay the option in case he would stay with the company to hold around 9m shares or 1.3%. So Peter's 10% + Vijay 1.3% + Retail 39% or more at the time since many got liquidated gives us >50%, if one of the funds holding 3-4% could be on their side the acquisition would be even harder to take place. Imo this is an ordered acquisition and Retail will pay for it! What a beautiful game! Based on 670m shares float here are the % based on (simplywallst.com data and fintle.io) Holders >1% 1. Vanguard together with its passive funds holds 84,819,961 or 12.65% 2. Blackrock together with its passive funds holds 37,909,425 or 5.65% + iShares (owned by Blackrock) 20,564,283 or 3.069% 3. Formation8 Partners 42,192,476 or 6.29% 4. DST Global 38,301,392 or 5.71% 5. GGV Capital, LLC 25,707,499 or 3,83% 6. General Atlantic Llc 16,888,478 or 2.52% 7. Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc. 13,519,000 or 2.01% +5m call option + potential 0.74% 8. State Street Corp 13,349,046 or 1.99% 9. Geode Capital Management, Llc 8,442,463 or 1.26% 10. Comprehensive Financial Management LLC 8,406,736 or 1.25% 11. Renaissance Technologies Llc 8,264,800 or 1.23% All of the above players hold together 47.45%! Peter already sold 3.63% and probably going for >5%, when we learn who bought in i think the price would not be where it is now! From the 2021 Annual Report "In addition, in July 2017, FTSE Russell and Standard & Poor’s announced that they would cease to allow most newly public companies utilizing dual or multi-class capital structures to be included in their indices. Affected indices include the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400, and S&P SmallCap 600, which together make up the S&P Composite 1500. Under the announced policies, our multi-class capital structure would make us ineligible for inclusion in any of these indices, and as a result, mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, and other investment vehicles that attempt to passively track these indices will not be investing in our stock." IMO Peter's conversion from B to A opened the door for the acquisition ! Since they will scoop everything from their passive funds! What's the price???? If the deal is done and you are the SMART MONEY wouldn't you like to purchase all the stock available??? I mean look at that depressed 39% that sits there! IMO 2 paths are possible depending on how the markets will do over the next 6-12months 1. If markets do well there will be an explosive rally to $3-5 towards the EoY, I bet most of you will take your money and leave at that point, the volatility (shaking) is going to be insane! RSI constantly overbought on divergence the opposite of what's happening now! 2. If markets do bad then 0.90-0.70 will do. I think a big % of retail will give up on new lows or on the first 100-300% rally. Now IF and i say IF there is a buyout what would be the price? I would like to think of a price higher than the institution's average. Wish right now has no major shareholder (Peter is gone) I think VC's will likely dictate the price. My guess would be something around 4-6x FY23 sales if markets go well! That should be in the range of 4-6b maybe a little higher depending on how sales would look in 23. That translates to a price of more or less $7-9 or Inside the GAP!!! *Peter's Thiel Fund sold all of it's shares on the WSB frenzy for an average of $12 i think in the best best best case scenario that's the ceiling! Do your own research and do not listen and trust nobody! In the end, we are all alone in this game! Keep calm WGMI!
WLong
by Philoslother
10
NASDAQ, 21ST SEPT MEETING ANALYSIS!!its hard to predict what am i predicting now, its somewhat related to speculating, what am i saying is that due to FED's meeting, the market will react negatively and reach around 11520. but far enough who knows what will it be declared in the meeting so far. but i am saying such statement because just because of 'hike news' the market reacted negatively, so if FED posts any good news too, still the public will make out there positions, and after making there positions, that potential will be generated to go in a bull run. so end of this week, we could see the start of NASDAQ'S BULL RUN!! FURTHER ON, DO EVEN CHECK MY NIFTY'S BULL RUN ANALYSIS OF THIS MONTH!
NASDAQ:NDX
by raghavchoudhary2016
2
Volume Flow Potential Bottom IndicatorIs Volume Flow indicating $17.8 is the bottom? I was looking at different indicators today and found something very interesting on a volume flow indicator... It shows the negative volume dipping sharply since the recent bottom at 17.8k, and conversely positive volume has been rising. They may intersect very soon. I got curious and looked at what happened in 2018 on the Volume Flow indicator and you can see a very similar scenario played out. The lines crossed over a little bit after the market bottom was in... This makes sense as people take a little while to be confident that the bottom is actually in. And again, we are about to see these two lines potentially cross. What's also interesting is that the length of time from the actual bottom and when the volume flow lines crossed, is about the same length of time between our recent bottom, and the projected date of the lines crossing. Make of it what you will, this is a highly speculative idea. I just find this potentially compelling for a bull perspective. Of course the lines haven't actually crossed yet but it appears they likely will.
by D-Rock_Anomaly
1
ETH Merge will squeeze price up to unload lockup, Then Down.BINANCE:ETHUSDT My opinions in order of likelihood (See more Detail Opinion written on Callouts in Chart) Option 1 * - Merge will lead to forcing price up -- So that those with locked ETH get their value worth back --- Then it will crash back down through the levels. Option 2 - Fake out here / Turn now and we fall to the bottom Area on the weekly Low over the last couple of years. Option 3 - We Range and Crab for months and months while inflation eats away the relative floor value. vs what would have been nominal.
by meltedlaughter
2
New range forming on Bitcoin for LTFSo yesterday I posted an idea that said BTC PA is showing bullish weaknesss and may set the precedent for a new drop. (Idea is linked as related idea below.) Reason why I said so was that there was an absence of any significant buyer reaction following the big drop we had the day before. PA was just weakly crabbing, with buyers showing a complete inability to overtake sellers enthusiasm. Overnight (I'm in EU) this drop did take place. (Sadly, my TP was missed by a millimeter - but that's irrelevant to my point here ;) ) Point being is that we are now seeing the strong buyers reaction that was absent yesterday. I think this is indicative we **may** be seeing the formation of a new LTF range. I indicated the range in blue, the resistance zone in red, the support zone in green, and possible deviation levels as thick dashed lines. It's very early to say that this will indeed be the range for the coming time. We need to see another high rejected at the level, and another low supported at the level for strong confirmation. And remember that Mondays and Tuesdays can be deceiving. However, for now I'm using this as a main orientation for as long as it is not invalidated. What is particularly important to watch out for today is the reaction of the price once it hits the bottom of the range. **If** it reacts strongly (which, taking into account the first reaction, I think it is more probably than not that it will), I think range is confirmed, and we can play it. NFA, but I hope it is helpful.
by mapav
Eth price action analysis and possible short entryFollowing the breakdown of the wedge, price is currently situated in the blue box where it could hang around a little. I don't really expect a bounce upward out of this zone. However, if we do have a bounce and break out of the blue box it is likely because the NPOC at 1818 is attracting the price. In that case I would not expect the bounce to go any higher than that, at maximum. For that reason, I think such a move upward should not be misinterpreted as bullish price action, because I would assume price to go back down quite quickly after tapping the NPOC. **If** it does touch 1818, I would look closely at how it reacts at that point and consider whether or not my thoughts as described above are correct in the context of the market at that time. If so, I would consider a short entry. - **NFA** My bias is bearish, as is legitimized by the macro trend being bearish. So my expectation is we break down out of the blue zone. There is some support at 1631. I think it is weak support, and expect the weak support to push us upwards to test previous support. **If** it is confirmed previous support has flipped to resistance, I would consider that confirmation to be short entry. - **NFA** Due to the volume, the descent to the next important support (1520) would not be a steep descent. Below 1520, headed to 1354, there is some volume, but there also is a low volume zone starting at 1444. When price enters these zones, in my experience, it tends to drop quite steeply. As you can see, there is another low volume zone between 1354 and the bigger POC at the bottom. So there are a few situations that could develop here which in my opinion could give rise to good short entries. But as always these are just my interpretations and do not serve as financial advice, as they could be missing the mark entirely.
Short
by mapav