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Speculation

Possible scenarios for BTCAt the moment, 50k-53k is a very critical level for $BTC in order to determine whether or not we'll move into a bull run or not. Another rejection and bobos will have a field day seeing no one happy for Christmas this December. I've laid out a couple of scenarios for BTC: Bull case: -We breach the trendline and make a higher high and complete a wave 3 target toward 100k without retesting the trendline -The same as above but the trend line gets retested and a new bull trend gets created -Exchange reserves decreasing significantly ever since the dump from 50k -Taproot -New local high on taker buy/sell ratio -Spot ETF? -Possibility of other social media platforms following twitter's adoption of BTC and ETH (OF btc donations from simps?) -Btc volcano mining from El Salvador Bear case: -Bitcoin gets rejected at the trendline again increasing the likelihood of a bear market but with a much higher ath potential (300k+?) sometime in 2022 or 2023. I suspect the bottom to be anywhere between 22k-24k. Good time to pick up on alts and accumulate. Doesn't even matter if you are working min. wage at Mcdonald's or Amazon with this scenario, just have cash/stable coins ready to buy the dip, and cash out your 10x-100x ROI. -Bids at 36k-40k region continuing to reduce whilst under 50k/major trendline, providing an opportunity for a selloff to sub 40k due to lack of support. -Trusts/Funds selling at a negative premium -SPX/CPI wave 5 target -115% U.S. debt/GDP ratio -Evergrande situation (tether correlation?) Overall, wouldn't be surprised if we crabbed for a couple of months maybe even a year until either case becomes more dominant.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by linebands
BTC Short, Possible repetition of global high pattern?There seems to be a repetition of fractal patterns of the early 2021 highs from 43k to 65k with the current trend from 40k to 50k of Aug-Sept. Could speculate to enter a short ~49k, with a stop loss ~51k and take profit at 40k and 36k. 36k take profit derives from both the bars pattern target, possible retest of PoC of the crabbing that occurred from May through Aug, and 2.618 fib extension of the Sept. 13 low to the Sept. 19 high. 40k is the 1.618 extension of the same lows and highs. This idea becomes much more probable as it fails to continue to support the lower blue trendline.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by linebands
DJI Elliot Wave and its HistoryBy using parabolic curves and the logarithmic chart I have found something very consistent and interesting with the DOW starting from its inception. ***Note: IF this has been discovered before then all credit to them, this will just be a decent idea to think about now and to bring up given recent events and trend.*** The Great Depression marked the first parabolic curve break on the chart but after I drew more parabolic curves using these guidelines: - Each curve must touch the initial bottom back before 1900 and the bottom of the Great Depression (~1932) and must touch the start of Wave 1 and the bottom of Wave 4 for each of the cycles throughout DOW's history. - There had to be 5 waves that match the rules correctly on the Monthly chart - There had to be a matching A,B,C style correction after each cycle once the parabolic curve broke - The 1973-74 recession was more of a W,Y,Z where it ended in a zig-zag type pattern - Also, the pandemic fall back was very fast but still had a quick A,B,C which I left off the charts since it was too small to view - Each parabolic curve break had to be after or during an important part of U.S History and sometimes World History as with COVID-19 In the end it seems to be pointing towards a large scale 1 - 5 Elliot Wave on a Super-millennium type cycle. Now this is just pure speculation but proper to ponder as an idea as the rules do fit currently to be so. If there are debates to this please let me know as I am still a bit intermediate level with Elliot Waves. Same goes for each of the cycles I have shown. So what does this mean for a possible future?? Once again high speculation here. - If this is true then this current possible pullback is just a number 2 on the Monthly Elliot scale of this cycle which, if history repeats, would be a 50%-62% retracement back to 22-25k range and should be completed by mid-year next year (2022). - That means a 3 would reach ~53k with a wave 4 to touch that current parabolic wave at ~36k. Then it would follow a wave 5 pushing towards 55k area. - After this parabolic break I would speculate that it would be the last and it would end wave 5 of the super-millennium type cycle that DOW has been on since inception - Once broke it would result in a large scale and long scale bear market that could last many years and see a correction pushing past 80%, 9.6k seems to be a good area with strong support as an eventual target - Another possibility that points to this being the end of a very large cycle is that each of the parabolic curves are getting more narrow showing the overall rapid price rise as this has aged. - Also, drawing out the Elliot Waves for this cycle showed 3 and 5 being very close for their tops with 1 and 4 nearly matching in price as well. - Current Wave 1 has been riding the bottom of the last parabolic wave for some time now. - Each correction in these Waves have been either been related to a big economic or historic event (sometimes both) so looks like this one could be another housing industry bubble as has been speculated to happen soon. - IF this stays on course as shown then it would point towards the second half of 2027 as a huge historical event to come especially one that could cause a break of the long-term cycle. This would also be devastating too all markets as well if it happens. This is just something I did and thought it would be a good idea to share. The DOW has been showing signs of a large correction coming and the speculation of another housing bubble bursting has got some thinking of a 2008 recession. What I have found does show a correction but it is at this time pointing to a much larger correction to come but at a later date this decade. I would speculate though any monthly close below 20k on the DJI could mean serious trouble indeed as it would break this parabolic curve and each time it has at least meant a multi-year bear market to follow. Anybody have anything to add or to help correct me on (I'm still not quite to an expert level with Elliot waves) then let me know be glad to comment back! ***Disclaimer: I am not a financial professional/expert and all ideas from me are all speculation based off of my own research. Please do your own research as well as I am not responsible for others when it comes to their financial decisions.***
TVC:DJI
by WITSIT
$BTC New ATH; Path, Plan, ProfitIllustrated are my ideas on $BTC's path to a new ATH. Perhaps by Jan/Feb '22. Which means upside movements soon. Maybe it happens maybe it doesn't. I try to imagine all paths so I can strategize a way to profit from any scenario. The only way to do that is to plot out possible paths, plan a reaction, then execute for (fingers crossed) a profit. Green line - we reclaim 1D 200 EMA forming a rounded bottom. Range trade scalps to increase $BTC position for max profits when it rips. Red line - $BTC sees violent downside forming classic reversal patters such as inverse H/S or C&H patterns. Hodl short position until bottom becomes clear. Spot long bounces and breakouts. I'll adapt my plan as the path reveals itself but curious what you think? Do you have any predictions on paths forward or plans on how you will trade? Hodl, short then long the rip, hold fiat to catch bottom for max multipliers up? Curious to know. Comment with a link to your chart or describe your ideas to lend greater perspective for the community. Cheers!
by readyplayer9
BTC;Criticality &Phase Transition; Thermodynamics of SpeculationThis is just a quick take on how markets , and more specifically Speculation - in it's most general, universal sense -, is informed by similar critical dynamics as those found underlying other social interactions. (The math is hidden. You're welcome.) What this is Not , is a ready-to-use model since the specific parameters or the full model description are not part of the proceeding. The following "As is ..." ; This statistical–mechanical model is based on the Boltzmann–Lotka–Volterra (BLV) method. BLV models involve two components: a fast equilibration, Boltzmann , component and a slow dynamic, Lotka–Volterra , component. The Boltzmann component applies maximum entropy principle to derive the static flow patterns of instruments (or their utility , as is the case). The Lotka–Volterra component evolves the spatial distribution (Price & Time; i.e.the chart) and the flow pattern of a information according to generalized Lotka–Volterra equations for distributed information. The resultant dynamics exhibit critical regimes, interpreted as phase transitions , where a small variation in suitably chosen (control) parameters changes the global outcomes measured via specific aggregated quantities (order parameters). The main take-away here is that this is in line with the idea that, despite the complexity of such a system (as depicted) only few parameters may be necessary to understand drastic macroscopic changes. The maximum entropy method has been applied to a variety of collective phenomena (E.g., Speculation; Yours Truly) suggesting a formal analogy between complex, socio-economic systems and thermodynamic systems. We use a clear thermodynamic interpretation of the Fisher information as the second derivative of free entropy. Specifically, we investigate the minimum work required to vary a control parameter and trace configuration entropy and internal energy, according with the first law of thermodynamics. The thermodynamic work is defined via Fisher information and thus can be computed solely based on probability distributions estimated from available data. Once we introduce the concept of thermodynamic efficiency as the ratio of the order gained during a change to the required work (information transmission), it can be rather easily demonstrated that it is maximized at criticality . Note; The above further illustrates the common observation that Technical Analysis fails, in most cases, to capture (forecast) Finite-time Singularities - i.e the sudden appearance of exponential price increases or price collapses ( crashes ).
Education
by Nemo_Confidat
7
DOTUSD : COIL / SWING TRADEPOLKADOT: A BET AGAINST MAXIMALISM The Interview - Crypto · Featuring Gavin Wood and Sebastian Moonjava Published on: January 29th, 2021 • Duration: 69 minutes Gavin Wood, co-founder of Polkadot and co-founder and CTO of Ethereum, joins Sebastian Moonjava, Real Vision associate crypto editor, to discuss Polkadot, Kusama, and the evolving crypto landscape. Wood explains that Polkadot was created to enable faster innovation in the blockchain space, reducing the amount of work necessary to start and secure a new blockchain and connect it to others. He describes Polkadot as a layer 0 technology, a meta protocol, that is more abstract and flexible than Bitcoin and Ethereum. Wood also talks about Kusama, which utilizes the same kind of technology as Polkadot but has a completely different development philosophy. Kusama is a faster iterating, more experimental chain that acts as a “canary network”—a real value, live chain that allows for rapid development of the technology. He describes Polkadot as a revolution in blockchain technology, not just an evolution. Filmed on January 21, 2021. Key Learnings: Polkadot enables faster innovation in blockchain technology by making it easier for people to build, secure, and connect blockchains. Kusama is a more experimental, faster iterating, blockchain utilizing similar technology as Polkadot. Wood believes that Polkadot is a bet against maximalism as he doesn’t prescribe to the idea that there is a “best” blockchain or set of rules for a chain, but that different use cases require different types, and Polkadot enables this. SOURCE : www.realvision.com True interoperability Polkadot enables cross-blockchain transfers of any type of data or asset, not just tokens. Connecting to Polkadot gives you the ability to interoperate with a wide variety of blockchains in the Polkadot network. Economic & transactional scalability Polkadot provides unprecedented economic scalability by enabling a common set of validators to secure multiple blockchains. Polkadot provides transactional scalability by spreading transactions across multiple parallel blockchains. Forkless and future-proof Polkadot can upgrade without hard forks to integrate new features or fix bugs. This capability enables Polkadot to easily adapt to changes and upgrade itself as better technologies become available. Security for everyone Polkadot's novel data availability and validity scheme allows chains to interact with each other in a meaningful way. Chains remain independent in their governance, but united in their security.
Long
by TradingMavericks
1
mere speculation of the coming weeks.Hey again, THIS IS TOTALLY just speculation. I'm deciding to trade a bit more on the bearish side. I can't wait for BTC to pick up the pace, but I'm going off of the fib lines and I'm not yet confident it's ready for a bull market. I do sense a generous pull back down into sub 30k levels and as such the alt coins will be affected by this, one of my favorite coins (ICP) that has been trading pretty closely with BTC (though a bit undervalued relative to it, just in my opinion :P ) will likewise decline. of course if the wedge(pennant?) breaks upwards and a trend begins I will trade bullish on ICP and this chart will mean essentially nothing, so do NOT place faith or anything, this literally was thrown together by me ( a rookie) in a matter of 15 minutes. I'm just saving it here more for my own reference :) we'll see what happens! If anyone has any ideas or inputs, let me know! Be safe out there guys, and DON'T OVERLEVERAGE, that's exactly what they want you to do, and why bear markets become so strong. margin calls create a domino effect of more margin calls and the short positions increase and it just continues. Don't become a statistic.
COINBASE:ICPUSD
by scindo
1
The case of the 1.7 trillion mk XRPFirst of all you will say that this one is unreal, there is no chance for this to happen. Yes, chances are low but its not impossible. I am not sure if you where at the floor when BTC crashed and XRP made some huge gains in a couple of days. So did BCH as well, and the news were full with headlines like "BCH will takes the first place from BTC because its much better" Everyone jumped into buying then the whole crypto market just crashed! General trading rules says: Buy low sell high, buy undervalued assets sell overvalued assets. Think about it, if you ask any crypto evangelists they will say XRP is shit, its not a crypto so on. Then they will enter the market when they see the price mooning and they will start to FOMO. It's all about pshychology. This thing to happen requires a lot of money. We had nearly trillion dollars on the market when we peaked few weeks ago. Half of it can make Ripple as a specex rocket if large speculators will make this huge move. I am not saying that it will happen, but daydreaming is not illegal. Nobody though that BTC will crash to 30k, exepct few one. Think about it! Have a great weekend you all! Join our community until its free! (But it's not mandatory!) community.protradersnetwork.com
POLONIEX:XRPUSDLong
by tmsarn
7
TSLA: Spring 2021 vs. Summer 2020I will politely disagree with Mr. Burry and others. It looks like Tesla is repeating the pattern it played out in summer 2020, and if it continues, could potentially hit +100% in <90 days. I might actually even say 60, but there may be another little bump to go, i.e. fake uptrend, retrace, then real uptrend. I estimate, however, that it's more likely we are approaching the bottom of the dip, possibly even this week, with several months of bullish movement to follow. Disclaimer: I am not an expert, I am most likely wrong, My degree is STEM, not finance/econ, I assume no liability if you decide to blow your nest egg on my musings.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by BadCadaver
4
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 5/6/2021 SessionContract - CME_MINI:NQM2021 - PR High: 13497.00 - PR Low: 13471.50 Evening Stats - Gap: = N/A - Session Open ATR: 212.29 - Volume: 27k - Open Int: 236k - Trend Grade: Bullish - From ATH: -4% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as a range) - Long: 14104 - Mid: 12530 - Short: 12598 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
CME_MINI:NQM2021Short
by mv3trader5