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DJT stock: Dead cat rebound or wave of support?Trump Media & Technology Group Corp's stock surged following news of an attempted assassination on major shareholder Donald Trump at a political rally on Sunday. Given the fervent nature of Trump's supporters, it's plausible that voters could turn to their wallets before casting ballots in November as the presidential race heats up. Drawing parallels to the recent activity surrounding the GameStop stock, a meme rally cannot be entirely ruled out, potentially presenting a lucrative opportunity for speculators. For this scenario to materialize, high trading volumes in the stock need to persist. The average trading volume over the past two weeks is around 10 million shares. If today's activity surpasses this figure, it could indicate sustained interest in the stock following yesterday's massive gap up and record trading volume. Although DJT stock closed $6 lower than its opening price, it currently hovers around the crucial $40 level. If the bulls can maintain the price above this level before today's close, it could signal a further bullish trend. Conversely, if the price were to fall below the $40 mark, we might see the stock trading at its early July levels of $30. This trade is highly speculative, and while the current political climate could easily add more fuel to the fire, it's crucial to monitor the fundamentals. DJT reported a loss for Q1, but with Q2 earnings around the corner, investors should stay vigilant. Call spreads with 30-40 DTE (shortly before Q2 earnings report) might be an interesting play here regardless of the direction you're betting on.
NASDAQ:DJT
by WHSelfInvest
Why Bear Shares are NOT InvestmentsPrice of SOXS since inception. Price in 2012 is not a typo. Adjusted for reverse splits, shares declined from $11.1m to $3. Eleven million, one-hundred thousand dollars became three dollars in twelve years. Bear etf funds do not contain equities. They consist entirely of futures contracts, which suffer time decay and expire. This is the effect of time decay on short sale of futures in a rising market. Can you make money on SOXS? Sure, if you buy it the day before a crash. Good luck with that! Other lousy ETFs include UVXY, SPXS, TZA, SDOW, SQQQ. But Sawbucks, just last month you posted you were buying some of those?! Yes, you buy them when market is extreme overbought condition and hold for no more than a week. One day is often long enough. These are NOT investments, they are purely speculative high-risk instruments. After just a week in these etfs you can notice the time decay, you will see index return to a price it held last week, but the bear fund will be a nickel or even a dime less than it was at the same price. DO NOT HOLD LONG-TERM!!
AMEX:SOXSEducation
by DaddySawbucks
16
Gold defies bond sell-off once againNominal 10-year Treasury yields have risen to the highest level since 2007. Just when we though the bond sell-off of 2022 was behind us, it came back with a vengeance. Hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (Fed) minutes and a string of positive economic data from the US are casting doubts whether we have reached peak interest rates in the US. The Fed certainly has left the door open for further hikes and its decisions will be very data sensitive. Relative to the bond market, gold is holding up well at USD1916/oz (on 23 August 2023). While gold prices temporarily fell below the psychologically important US$1900/oz level, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) prices had fallen much further and other-things-being-equal, the bond market would indicate gold should be trading closer to $1830/oz. Gold’s resilience in the past month mirrors its defiance again the bond headwinds of 2022. Gold has been facing US Dollar headwinds as well in the past month. The Dollar Basket (DXY) has appreciated 2.1% in the past month (to 22 August 2023). With a more hawkish Fed, there is a greater risk of further dollar appreciation. Central banks bought a net 55 tonnes of gold in June following three straight months of selling. The Central Bank of Türkiye's (CBRT) return to net buying in June helped reverse a temporary trend. Having been a significant net seller between March and May to meet local demand, it swung back to net buying in June, adding 11 tonnes to its official reserves. Of all the precious metals, silver fell the most in the past month (-6.1%). Net speculative positioning fell 88% to a level one standard deviation below its 5-year average. However, we suspect that excessive shorts were being covered in the past week. Since hitting an intra-day local low of US$22.35/oz at 13.30 on 15/08/2023 silver prices have bounced up to US$24.14/oz at 15.00 on 23/08/2023 (+8.0%). That low point seems to match the Fibonacci-implied support levels looking at year-to-date silver performance (the 38.2% retracement). Silver inventory in London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) vaults, which fell precipitously in 2022 (-28%), has stabilised and gained 3% year to July 2023. Silver holding in exchange traded commodities (ETCs) have only modestly declined in 2023 so far (4%) after a 15% decline in 2022. The last week’s bounce in silver price takes the gold-to-silver ratio back down to 81 (22/08/2023), from 84 (08/08/2023), fractionally higher than 80, where we were a month ago (21/07/2023). Net speculative positioning in silver fell 88%, one standard deviation below its 5-year average according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (August 15, 2018 to August 15, 2023) Platinum and palladium also followed silver higher in the past week, but monthly prints have come in lower. Auto sales have largely been improving in the past year, with sales up 18% y-o-y in Europe (June) and US (July). However, China sales fell 1% y-o-y in July. Autos are the main source of demand for platinum group metals. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
EUREX:FCPR1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
📈Investing vs. Speculating: Understanding the Key Differences📉Navigating the Financial Landscape: Investing vs. Speculating for Smart Financial Growth In the intricate world of stock trading, distinguishing between an investor and a speculator is vital, despite their mutual interest in market analysis. Each follows distinct approaches and objectives, and understanding these differences is paramount before venturing into the stock market. With diverse individuals seeking to capitalize on opportunities and make profits, this article delves into the contrasting methods and goals of investors and speculators, shedding light on their unique strategies. Understanding the Distinction: Investor vs. Speculator At first glance, differentiating between an investor and a speculator might seem challenging. After all, both activities involve buying and selling stocks and require initial market analysis. However, the nature of these two approaches varies significantly. Before delving into the world of stock markets, grasping the difference between investing and speculation is essential. Each day, the stock exchange witnesses countless transactions, leading to continuous price fluctuations. Behind each trade lies an individual with their own motivations, strategies, and rules, all driven by the common desire to make money. However, their approaches diverge; some choose to invest, while others opt for speculation. Let's explore the dissimilarities. Who exactly is an investor? Investing involves purchasing stocks of companies at their intrinsic value, with the expectation of long-term growth and subsequent profitability. As the definition suggests, patience is required, as companies do not experience substantial growth within mere weeks. Investors build portfolios of stocks with a focus on the years ahead. Moreover, investors can generate income through means other than price appreciation alone. By becoming shareholders, stock buyers become co-owners of the company. They can participate in general meetings organized by the company and receive dividends, which are a portion of the company's profits shared with its investors. This way, investors receive periodic returns. Investing necessitates comprehensive analysis of the company whose stock one intends to acquire. The objective is to enhance the value of the acquired assets over the long term. Evaluating the prospects of a specific sector and the company itself entails reading recommendations, staying informed about market trends, and skillfully combining relevant information. Proficient investors are capable of constructing portfolios that yield consistent profits year after year. On the other hand, a speculator approaches the stock market differently. Speculation involves buying and selling stocks with the anticipation of profiting from short-term price fluctuations. Speculators typically focus on quick gains and may not be concerned about the company's long-term prospects. Their decisions are often driven by technical analysis and market trends, aiming to capitalize on short-term price movements. While both investors and speculators participate in the stock market, understanding their differing approaches and objectives is critical for making informed choices and achieving financial growth. Meet the Speculator: Focused on Profits and Market Swings Speculators are individuals whose primary focus is on making profits in the stock market. Unlike investors who carefully analyze the specific stocks they buy and the performance of the underlying companies, speculators are more concerned with the high volatility of prices that offers potential for quick gains. They may not be as concerned about the long-term prospects of a company; what matters most to them is the opportunity to capitalize on price movements, whether upward or downward. Unlike investors who prefer to hold stocks for the long term, speculators aim to quickly buy and resell stocks to profit from short-term price fluctuations. They may even utilize financial instruments such as contracts to benefit from falling prices. For speculators, the direction of price movement becomes inconsequential; they can make gains regardless of whether stock prices rise or fall. One instance of speculation occurred during the aftermath of the Brexit referendum when stock prices plummeted. Speculators saw an opportunity to acquire stocks at low prices, and many stocks rebounded in the following days. By investing in undervalued companies and taking advantage of people's tendency to overreact, speculators made significant profits within a short period. Unlike investors who focus on a company's financial performance and long-term growth prospects, speculators rely more on charts and market sentiment. They are sensitive to emotions in the market, such as fear during potential financial crises or uncertainties surrounding elections, which can significantly influence price swings. Speculators thrive on exploiting these rapid price movements, finding ample opportunities for their trading activities. However, it's important to note that speculating in the stock market involves heightened stress and risks due to the significant price fluctuations. As prices can change rapidly, speculators need to be prepared for the potential downsides and be well-versed in managing risks effectively. Timing Matters: The Distinct Approach of Traders and Speculators Distinguishing between traders and speculators becomes evident when considering the time factor in the world of stock trading. Investing in stocks requires patience, relying on a company's future growth, financial results, and potential dividends. Successful investing often involves waiting for several years to achieve substantial growth, surpassing the performance of other instruments like funds. On the other hand, speculation hinges on understanding short-term market sentiment and making quick decisions. Swift reactions to market changes are necessary as the stock market is prone to significant sell-offs followed by potential reversals. Speculators closely monitor the market and wait patiently for opportune moments to capitalize on rapid price movements. The paradox of speculation lies in the contrasting time frames involved: speculation itself is brief, but speculators invest considerable time observing charts compared to traders who simply maintain open positions. Combining Investment and Speculation In principle, one doesn't have to exclusively choose between investing and speculating. However, effectively combining an equity portfolio with a speculative portfolio demands substantial experience and time. It's essential to bear in mind that speculation carries significantly higher risks compared to investing. A seasoned investor can gradually construct a small speculative portfolio while allocating the majority of funds to long-term investments in stocks. The stock portfolio consistently builds capital, while the speculative portion can potentially yield an additional "bonus" when favorable market opportunities arise. Investor Sleeps Well: The Patient Approach of Investors While speculators engage in the challenging pursuit of profiting from daily price fluctuations, investors adopt a different approach. Investors carefully select stocks for their portfolios and patiently wait, exercising risk control. This approach enables them to focus on their professions or businesses while allowing their savings to grow through capital appreciation. One notable example of this investment strategy is Warren Buffett. Buffett has dedicated years to constructing portfolios by choosing shares of reliable companies that consistently share profits with their shareholders through dividend payments. This straightforward strategy, employed for decades, surpasses the performance of speculators and aggressive mutual funds. Success in investing relies on an investor's knowledge and understanding of prevailing market conditions. While the latter remains beyond anyone's control, the former depends solely on the experience gained with each subsequent trade. Investing is a gradual process, and as experience accumulates, positive results are more likely to emerge. Patience, discipline, and a long-term perspective are key traits of successful investors. The Best Approach: Investment or Speculation? The question of whether to invest or speculate ultimately depends on your individual goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon. Both strategies have their merits and cater to different types of traders. Investing is a long-term strategy that involves buying stocks of companies at their intrinsic value with the expectation of long-term growth and profits. Patient investors hold onto their stocks for years, conducting thorough analyses of company prospects and making informed decisions based on research and market information. They can also benefit from dividends as co-owners of the company, providing a steady income stream. Investing requires a disciplined approach to constructing portfolios that generate systematic profits over time. On the other hand, speculation is a short-term strategy driven by the desire for quick profits. Speculators are primarily motivated by profit and take advantage of high volatility in stock prices. They may not necessarily focus on a company's financial performance or the overall state of the economy. Speculators need to react swiftly to market changes, capitalizing on price swings. However, this approach involves higher stress and risk. Speculators can profit from both rising and falling prices, and their success relies heavily on understanding short-term market sentiment. While both investment and speculation have their merits, it's essential to note that speculation is generally riskier and requires a deep understanding of market dynamics. Combining an equity portfolio with speculative positions can be challenging and time-consuming. Most investors prioritize investing in stocks for long-term growth and stability while allocating a smaller portion for speculative opportunities. Ultimately, investors tend to have a more relaxed approach as they carefully choose stocks for their portfolio and patiently wait for their investments to appreciate over time. This approach allows investors to focus on their other commitments while still profiting from capital appreciation. Warren Buffett, a renowned investor, exemplifies this strategy by building portfolios of reliable companies that consistently share profits with shareholders. Investing is a continual learning process, and success depends on the investor's knowledge, experience, and ability to adapt to market conditions. So, the best approach boils down to aligning your trading style with your financial goals and risk tolerance. In the dynamic world of financial markets, the choice between investing and speculating is deeply personal, guided by individual goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon. Investors embrace a patient, long-term strategy, seeking gradual growth and sustained profits through careful analysis and informed decisions. On the other hand, speculators chase short-term gains, leveraging market volatility to capitalize on rapid price swings. While a combination of both approaches is possible, it demands expertise, time, and experience. It is crucial to recognize that speculation involves higher risks, making it essential for traders to approach it with caution and a deep understanding of market dynamics. For most investors, allocating a smaller portion of funds to speculative opportunities while predominantly focusing on long-term stock investments offers a balanced approach. In the end, regardless of the chosen path, success in financial markets requires a thoughtful and disciplined approach. Armed with knowledge, experience, and a clear strategy, traders can navigate the complexities of the market and work towards achieving long-term financial prosperity.
Editors' picks
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by FOREXN1
27
Double Bottom SpeculativePossible double bottom formed on WHR- confirmed after passing HKEX:160 via volume/3 day rule etc. There is a very high probability that the pattern tests 162 area but also a good chance that it retreats from there. SP currently sitting near 61.8% retrace from 2021 highs to 2020 lows implying a demand zone. Currently has div yield of 5.17% at a payout ratio of only 41.15 and a decent 5 year growth rate ( for the mkt cap of company) of 9.73%. WHR's Fwd GAAP PE is less than 18.42% of the sector's. EV/EBITDA TTM is 3% below sector's, but 31.8% above WHR's 5 year avg. WHR's Shiller PE ratio range over last 10 years is 8.74 to a max of 30, so its currently below mid-range at 15.4. However WHR is susceptible to macro economic headwinds. There is a good chance that even a mild recession combined with WHRs recent deterioriating fundamentals causes the current intermediate pattern to fail and brings price down to a new demand zone near $100. WHR seems like it may be a good deal and has some short term technical characteristics in its favor but the odds seem in favor of the price falling further- Be cautious and consider averaging in over time if you do start a posit.
NYSE:WHR
by Jrussell86
1
GL1 (ASX) - Potential swing set up long Following the impulsive movement up since the March 23rd low, the chart formed an expanding flat which is followed by another smaller expanding flat. The longer the build up, the bigger the potential down the track. Usually a bigger impulse (after the flat) followed by consolidation is more desirable. If you look further back at the market structure, this ticker has reached $3. Have a tight stop here whatever you're trading style if you jump in without further confirmation signals. (I would use a 5-7% stop loss). I am only looking at charts here, not fundamentals.
GLong
by Itachi239
Fundamentals favour soybean, sugar and wheatAgricultural commodities, led by grains rose sharply in 2022. The two main catalysts for the upside in price were the Russia-Ukraine war alongside other supply challenges. There has been a number of cascading events around these two catalysts involving government interventions globally as food prices soared. However, from mid-October the renewal of the Black Sea grain initiative for six months, helped quell concerns of access to Black Sea ports. We have seen prices decline since then, but from a high level. It’s worth noting that grain exports from Ukraine under the Black Sea Grain Initiative dropped to 3.1mn tons in January compared to 3.6mn tons in December 2022 owing to a slowdown in inspections1. In 2023, the supply demand balance appears to be favouring soybeans, wheat, and sugar. Extreme drought in Argentina lends a tailwind to soybean prices In the case of soybean, a gloomier supply outlook has been a key tailwind for prices in 2023. Argentina, the world’s third largest soybean producer, is expected to see a weaker crop at 35.5mn tons owing to persistent drought and high temperatures. The Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates the crop at just 36mn tons after the USDA previously predicted a crop of 45.5mn tons. However, both estimates are still well above the assessments of local experts. The Rosario Grain Exchange, which asserts the drought is the worst in 60 years, lowered its soybean forecast to 34.5mn tons. Thus, future downward revisions by USDA are quite likely which should help soybeans continue to find support. Net speculative positioning in soybean futures has increased 124% since the start of October underscoring the positive sentiment owing to the tighter supply outlook. Tighter supply on the global sugar market Sugar prices are trading at a six year high. Investors remain concerned over the prospects of the sugar crop in India, the world’s second largest sugar exporter. Sugar cane processing in Maharashtra, the most important growing State, could end 45 to 60 days earlier than last year owing to heavy rainfall that has reduced the availability of sugar cane. In 2022, sugar production reached a record 13.7mn tons, which allowed India to export a record high 11.2mn tons of sugar.2 The Indian Sugar mills Association (ISMA) revised its estimate for domestic sugar production lower from 36.5mn tons to 34mn tons for the 2022/23 season2. This is raising concerns that the Indian government will not approve any further sugar exports for the current marketing year owing to the recent reports of weak production. This does suggest a tighter global sugar market particularly as we are in the midst of Brazil’s (the world’s largest sugar producer) sugarcane off-season. Although Brazil produces sugar all year round, during this period (December to March) few mills continue to crush. Supply from Thailand, the world’s third largest sugar producer is unlikely to fill the gap left behind by the smaller Indian harvest particularly during Brazil’s off-crop. The front end of the sugar futures curve has been in backwardation over the past 3 months and currently provides a roll yield of 7.2% highlighting the tightness in the sugar market. Wheat most exposed to geopolitical tensions Wheat prices have under most pressure from the improved supply prospects from the Black Sea Region. However total grain exports have declined by 29% to 27.7mn tons in the ongoing season (from 1 July 2022 to 31 January 2023), with wheat exports down 42% over the prior year.3 The ongoing escalation in the Russia Ukraine war continue to threaten supply from the breadbasket of Europe. The US Department of Agriculture is forecasting a noticeably smaller Russian wheat crop of 91 million tons for 2022 in sharp contrast to Russia’s State Statistics Agency estimate at a record high of 104.4mn tons. According to the consultant firm SovEcon, the key growing region in the south of Russia has seen only around 40-80% of its normal rainfall over the past three months. The forecasts of this year’s crop in Russia are less optimistic. In the 2022/23 season, a record crop in Russia enabled ample supply of the wheat markets, despite a considerably lower crop in war-torn Ukraine in particular, thereby dampening prices. Lower supply is likely in the coming season, however, not only from the top wheat producers – Russia and the US – but also from Ukraine on account of the ongoing military conflict. The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) anticipates a crop volume of 16 million tons. According to the Ukrainian Agriculture Ministry, 20 million tons of wheat were harvested last year. Before the war, the crop had totalled around 30 million tons. Net speculative positioning in wheat futures is currently more than 2-standard deviations below its five-year average, underscoring the extreme bearishness on the wheat market. Amidst the ongoing conflict and lower wheat supply from Russia and Ukraine, wheat prices appear positioned for a rebound from current levels. Sources 1 Bloomberg as of 31 January 2023 2 Indian Sugar Mills Association as of 30 December 2022 3 Bloomberg as of 31 December 2022
CBOT:ZW1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
TESLA FIGURE DEVELOPMENTTESLA unicorn stock for many reasons, it is so unexpectedly volatile based on ownership, innovation, speculation, and fanbase. What we can observe on the daily chart is fresh reversed head-and-shoulders technical figure. For that reason, there are 2 resistances and 1 support at the bottom, with very wide ranges. Reading that chart is based purely on technical and volatility expectations, as what we witnessed in the past with TESAL anything is possible and -100 points or +100 points is the dream of the short-term traders. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by legacyFXofficial
NASDAQ, 21ST SEPT MEETING ANALYSIS!!its hard to predict what am i predicting now, its somewhat related to speculating, what am i saying is that due to FED's meeting, the market will react negatively and reach around 11520. but far enough who knows what will it be declared in the meeting so far. but i am saying such statement because just because of 'hike news' the market reacted negatively, so if FED posts any good news too, still the public will make out there positions, and after making there positions, that potential will be generated to go in a bull run. so end of this week, we could see the start of NASDAQ'S BULL RUN!! FURTHER ON, DO EVEN CHECK MY NIFTY'S BULL RUN ANALYSIS OF THIS MONTH!
NASDAQ:NDX
by raghavchoudhary2016
2
$ROKU near heavy entry (3/5)Conviction: 3/5 Should probably wait for better entry around bottom support (4/5) General Thesis Weekly RSI good entry level Daily RSI bounced off oversold, could still become bullish divergence with a lower low bounced off near-term (2017) support trend line since inception Growth Gross margins (45%) is pretty steady the last few years, at all time highs Revenue growth (50%) around historical average, down from 2020 pandemic highs Value P/S below average, looks like about historical median P/FCF is very high (156), but about around mid-range of history Fundamentals & Balance Sheet quick ratio very attractive Potential Risks history is quite short, unclear how it will behave during recession Daily RSI could spike down to oversold area some more Historically no bullish divergence on weekly RSI before bounce
NASDAQ:ROKULong
by asdf098
Expecting a run-up in the New Year, like last year.It seems like there is a cycle of around 12 months with a margin of error of 1 month when there is the beginning or end of a major move. We are resting on the diagonal dotted white line as well as the bull flag support. We are currently trending down with the bullflag resistance, but one this breaks out it will go out hard. The way I drew the bottom curve was having the beginning and middle point touch and had positioned the end point so that the curve followed the trend, I did not just draw all three points on the chart then extend the right side of it as I think this is a better technique to get the proper shape of the trend. Also, it matches up with being a bottom here! I have 3300 shares at $1.81 and will get out at $10.88. I believe it is going to $12 though. Interestingly this has been trading similarly to TLRY for the past two years. I think we got a daily reversal candle on 12/29, also next week will be a new week for new green candles. Also, there were an even amount of monthly candles from the high to now with a distance of about 4 points each way not counting the upper wicks. Any idea why? Feel free to comment!
NASDAQ:FRSXLong
by ChargingBull
4
$TDC breakout and retest! (3/5)Conviction: 3/5 General Thesis Weekly RSI looks is attractive but likely to go lower Daily RSI turning up from oversold positions breakout from 2012 down trend resistance, could be the start of a leg up! target $60 Growth Gross margins (57%) is pretty steady, at/near historical highs Revenue growth (1.32%) around 75th percentile Value P/FCF below average (40th percentile) P/S below average as well (25th percentile) Fundamentals & Balance Sheet quick ratio good (~1), although trending down Potential Risks short history quick ratio has been deteriorating sincepeak in 2017 price could continue to move down trend line stop loss at recent trough: $40
NYSE:TDCLong
by asdf098