Speculative
LET INSPIRE FROM SPECULATIVE MOUVEMENTJust looked at IPO in switzerland this year. After a speedy scroll I was captured by two projects. Medartis and Sensirion.
Sensirion just mooned and if I had a little more time for stock market it was a clear buy for me.
Now let analyse Medartis.
IPO are tricky. There are differents movement after an IPO and you can enter in a golden egg goose but you can easily be trapped in a bad affair.
Now we can identify some important similarities.
let look at sensirion right.
1) post IPO speculative push
2) overbought corrective sell off
3) shy afflux of investor with a growth within the channel
4) break out of the top.
5) consolidation on the old top
6) explosion $$$$
left Medartis
1-4 are done.
felt 5) consoldation and 6) explosion
Now. I noticed it yesterday and I was concerned to buy or not.
Now is approaching the superior resistance of the channel and is inside a small rising wedge with some bearish divergence on indicators on higher timeframe.
So I decided to stay out and buy a pull back, and I will protect me inbetween with a stop above the channel.
Will it work what I'm telling you?
Maybe. There is a clear difference between this two ideas
Sensirion growth so fast in less time, as sign of strong interest. Medartis is growing but more slowly.
Even if this two movement are similar you can see that in august there were 3 big spike (first before the break out), signaling that someone passed big buy orders.
Medartis is more shy but the break out put him in an interesting situation and the pullback would be for me a clear buy opportunity that I won't miss. From there reevaluation of what happens with easy to place stop loss.
High Reward/Risk ratio
BIO
Phase 2 exploration October 1stPhase 2 exploration begins October 1st, and the speculative interest will be increasing.
After trading down on relatively unsurprising news about the drilling done on the western trend, we are setting up for a speculative rally for Phase 2 drilling at the eastern trend at Moosehead.
The 10,000m Phase 2 drilling program will test the area on the eastern trend, where MH18-01 gave the intercept of 11m of 44g/t gold and consequently gave Sokoman Iron Corp some TSXV:SIC ridiculous trading volume and a rapid 1000% increase in share price.
This is an easily accessible area in New Foundland, screaming for mining jobs. While we are far from delineating an actual mineable resource, we are also at a very small market cap where a lot of the hype investors have sold off, and more patient long-term investors have grabbed shares.
On the technicals, we seem to have touched a bottom twice at 0.15 and 0.145.
With an imminent catalyst coming up - 10,000 meters of drilling at the highly prospective eastern trend - there will be serious speculative interest the coming weeks.
Confirmation of the mineralization from MH18-01 meanwhile can take us far beyond what we have seen earlier.
Remeber this is exploration, results are not guaranteed, but speculative interest is definitely going to pick up.
Suggested trade before drill results:
0.15-0.23 BUY
0.25-0.40 SELL
And keep some shares for the assay results in October, that's where it can get really interesting for SIC.
APEN - Breakout brewing...NASDAQ:APEN is a buy.
Monthly Chart:
Weekly:
Daily:
Update to related idea.
SSC - Big upside SSC is ready to go higher.
This is a new trade I have initiated.
Company focuses on implementing Blockchain technology.
Overall (M)
Volume Flow
Price & Volume Trend & Efficiency
OBV & Accum
Overall Daily
I will update this soon.
-AB
BLRX - Breakout proneBLRX chart is looking pretty prone for a breakout.
BLRX has been undergoing consolidation and it appears to be ready to go higher
Technical Analysis:
BB and Keltner Channel Squeeze
Price and Volume Trend during consolidation
Positive Volume Index
Regression Slope
Rate of Change
Money Flow
Small Wave Count
Overall Chart (Weekly)
Overall Chart (Monthly)
Overall Chart (6hr/3hr)
See related idea for fundamental analysis
A Theory about Bitcoin"Short now, and buy in at 5,600."
Is what I would recommend if I were more confident in my analysis.
I just want this post to point out a few things.
Bitcoin hasn't reached a long-term RSI around 44 in quite some time.
Bitcoin RSI was only this low in 2016 Q3-4. The prices was roughly $560.
So why does this matter? The answer is entirely speculation. My current understanding of bitcoin is that multiplying by 10 to the price doesn't change what makes bitcoin special, the technology speaks for itself. Money should not be easy to create hence the surmounting difficulty of minting and mining bitcoin (as well as various other mineable alts). This also being attributed to the bi-yearly reward halving (ie 2018 bubble & 2020 www.bitcoinblockhalf.com ).
Here is where things get a little more esoteric. If a short bull run in 2016 corrects to 560, then who's to say we won't see a bottom of 5,600. What is so special about $5,600 and $560?
Psychology my dear Watson.
I remember a friend of mine saying, "Do you know how long I was waiting for 5k bitcoin?" It was a huge price point for him as well as many strong-handed investors. What we are all waiting for is "capitulation," where bears and bulls cannot decide on which way to go. For bitcoin however, it's obvious the answer will be to go up.
SWN - Spec play in the energy sectorI'm bullish on USOIL / XOP and XLE , and think SWN is a good way to play it. Monthly MACD shows strong momentum and is still building.
BITCOIN: The future?Loads of people are scratching their heads about Bitcoin at the moment, while some are chewing on their finger nails.
For those types the big question is ' Is it going to go up or down?' The latter is actually a novice-type question. Novices are occupied with which way 'it's going'.
More seasoned traders will know that all you can do is take a calculated affordable risk. I've entered long with a tight affordable stop loss on a daily chart. My reasoning is that there is a 50:50 chance of it going either way.
But also Bitcoin is about human psychology. 'Everybody' will be watching the weekly and monthly level of support. And that creates a probability that it could move north. How far north is the problem. Just to be clear: for every probability north there is a probability for the south in a 50:50 situation.
However, note that in the monthly chart price has a long way to go into the 'investor Guppy zone'. So it's possible that if the current apparent support is broken, that we would see price crash into the 4000-ish mark (near the Fib 76%) before any meaningful rebound.
Note also that on the Monthly time frame this is still a bull market. " Really? " you exclaim. Yes. Note the following:
1. Big wide investor Guppy zone (in green not yet penetrated).
2. Vervoot (amber line) well below the Guppy investor zone.
3. Time momentum on the Aroons is still bullish.
4. Price momentum is still positive but heading into a squeeze.
5. RSI is still above 50.
The above is the evidence available to everybody. There is a possibility that Bitcoin is a 'young phenomenon'. In 20 year's time this current 'crisis' of confidence could look silly if it reaches 100K to 500K. Hold your horses - none of this is advice or encouragement to buy Bitcoin!
My expectation - not prediction - is that if price breaks down from 6000, a bull run from 4000-ish is likely. That doesn't mean that price cannot go lower than 4000-ish. 2000-ish is certainly possible.
So if 'one' had $10,000 USD and was comfortable with a $8000 depreciation and was looking 20 years ahead, then one could jump in. I'm not 'one'. :))
DigiByte : Sleeping Giant ? Trade Warnings !Warnings :
-The Current Hike is due to rumors of it listing on Binance. ( 'N' number of people have been rekt in This Binance listing Hypes)
-Highly Speculated Coin : There are even Telegram groups for its speculation : @DGBwaves & @DGB_Speculation
-McAfee's Shill
That being said I am entering this trade upto 50 Sat. You can still wait for this Binance Hype to be over but for me High Risk Yields High Return !
For Lazy or To the point readers :
DGB
Long : 0.0000050 or Below ( Step buy orders Downside )
Take Profit : Step short orders
T1 : 0.0000054
T2 : 0.0000058
T3 : 0.0000064
T4 : 0.0000070++
SL : 0.0000040 ( Risk Apetite : Normal )
0.0000025 ( Risk Apetite : High )
Keep Raising your SL at 3-5% with the increase in Price.
Risk : Medium
Term : Short / Mid ( Depending on the Total Market Volume )
Invest : 8% or Less of Your Portfolio
Warning Again : This is not a safe investment looking at the current indecisive market. The current atm technical indiactors are bullish but do not rely them on much. Invest only if you have good risk apetite.
Why Are you suggesting for this trade then ?
- Highly Speculated
- Hard fork 21 June
- Artis Tumba Listing 30 June
- Somewhere Keynote Speaker 12 July ( Irrelevant Factor )
Spikes & Crashes in Price
As with all cryptocurrency, DigiByte’s price has been volatile recently. Up until 2017, it’s price remained relatively constant, with only slight growth. However, 2017 and 2018 saw a series of spikes and crashes for DGB.
A June 2017 spike came when DigiByte hinted at an impending announcement on Twitter. Investors looking to make money off the announcement quickly bought into DigiByte. This pumped the price. However, the announcement didn’t come for several more days. It introduced a new wallet and a few added features. By the time of the announcement, the price of DGB had already collapsed to near pre-announcement levels.
Digibyte’s price spiked again in December 2017-January 2018. John McAfee, a popular crypto-investor, tweeted about DigiByte as a company worth watching. The resulting December spike carried into the new year. But, it eventually collapsed along with the rest of the crypto market in the correction of January 2018.
Future of Digibyte
Traction is the name of the game for DigiByte. So far in its four-year history, it hasn’t gotten much. 100,000 nodes is a respectable network size for an alternative currency. However, DigiByte is a relatively old currency, and it has had opportunities to gain massive support with the right messaging and public relations.
DigiByte is currently gaining traction in gaming community. An offshoot of DigiByte, DigiByte Gaming, offers DGB to gamers in exchange for time spent playing certain games.
Tate, the CEO, has promised to focus on public outreach and the DigiByte Foundation this year. At this point, gaining greater adoption is the largest challenge facing the project. DigiByte’s fate hangs in the balance. It could take off as a leader in speed, scalability, and security; or it could languish in continued relative obscurity.
BTC - Speculating Bullish Market Structure / CupceptionThis is one of my more speculative charts, market conditions can change and wave structure is based on likely supports and resistances.
1. Bull Pennant - The current price action is making a bullish pennant with bullish divergence on the RSI, the target for this taken from the flagpole is the 10k area. (Wave 3 target, wave 4 being placed at a support test)
2. Cup And Handle (Green) - Current price action also seems to be a cup and handle with a pennant as the handle, the price target for this cup and handle is the 11.5k area. (Wave 5 target)
3. Cup And Handle (Blue), ABC Correction - Once the Green cup and handle target is reached, this would make 5 waves up, with wave 5 being at significant historical resistance, I believe this should spark an ABC correction, which can make a handle to an even bigger cup and handle.
MARA - Speculative fallen angel trade from $1.80 to $3.23MARA seems forming a nice fallen angel formation. There is a possible momentum scenario building here. It is a speculative trade in Block-chain industry, be aware of the risk.
* Trade Criteria *
Date First Found- April 26, 2018
Pattern/Why- FAllen angel formation
Entry Criteria- Current Price ($1.80)
Exit Criteria- 1st Target $2.43 & 2nd Target $3.23
Stop Loss Criteria- $1.58
Indicator Notes- Strong divergence in Twiggs money flow index
Please check back for Trade updates. (Note: Trade update is little delayed here.)
Mid-Day litecoin analysisI'm back after a short sabbatical, for some analysis. I did try to make a mid-week analysis on Wednesday, But I felt the market at the time was far to volatile for me to make an accurate educated guess. But you can see the analysis from that time.
And as I guessed the 113 support line was broken after it's fourth retest. As a glutton for punishment i'm still HODLing this coin. On the long term we are still waiting for the E point on the Elliot wave(Not pictured), and rumors of George Soros possibly getting into crypto currency, suggest a coming surge of volume, which is important in this market(LTC's volume is down, which could suggest a pump in my belief). One thing is certain we are in a ranging motion right now and the bears are holding the reigns of the markets, but they can be taken out at any moment in favor of a bull run. Watch your assets carefully!
The levels to watch are lows of 115.9 and 113.7
The 113 line being essentially weak, but still a contender
The higher level of 116 resistance line being the level to break, but also in conjunction with the Middle moving average. If these levels are broken(It appears the action will occur about 11pm - 7am EASTERN), we could see another run to 120.
Happy trading!
I ain't your fiduciary, If your not watching your own money, how can you expect someone to do it for you!
Crayon sketch of Cannabis Wheaton graphs and forward projectionsIve been invested in the Canadian marijuana sector for just over a year and a half and have had great overall success but most importantly learned A LOT along the way. Weve got a HUGE catalyst coming up in the Canadian Recreational Legalization slated for August 2018 and I for one do not want to be waiting on the sidelines!
This is just a VERY rough sketch of what I believe could be very much possible in the coming 6 months before true Canadian recreational legalization. I think that this sort of pattern is potentially VERY possible across the whole sector, but Cannabis Wheaton is an interesting business model that relies heavily on the production of its "subsidiaries."
I think that were coming up on another mini-mania where people who've invested in the sector in the past and bailed will be looking to get back in before the next boom. As with all investing, we are relying on people being late, dragging their feet and being indecisive in order to sell the stocks weve purchased earlier to them much higher.
As you can see, weve already started to see the Daily 9EMA turn upwards and with a steady stream of good news from many of the holdings of CBW, I don't see us crashing and burning from here. CBW has its fingers in MANY strong LPs and with a Market Cap of ~$550M its upside potential is astronomical.
The following assumptions were made:
I expect to see approximately 10% increase in the peak of the 9EMA once more between now and the August medium-soft "Green Day." I also expect to see a strong bounce off the 100MA late June, early July before the final run-up. I believe we could then see a solid 30% increase from the peaks of the MA going into the final days of the legalization and then after that, all bets are really off. Things may continue or things may crash back down to the 100MA range. We will have to play that by ear as it come.
Feel free to comment about your thoughts. Again, this is a VERY rough estimate of what it COULD look like but based on how the industry as run before, I think its very much in the realm of possiblities.
Good luck and HAVE FUN!
Good risk/reward small call positionGood day folks,
Today, I will open a small call position in DIA. This is a highly speculative trade as no breakout as occurred yet, however it makes the potential return very interesting as the option price is low. Also, the risk is limited as the candles are sitting close to the bottom line of the symmetrical triangle, so exiting the trade can be done fast if the momentum is broken (bottom line of the triangle).
I believe that DJI will breakout to the upside as it did last time (see the chart, I made 200% profit mainly because I bought early).
I will buy a small position of CALL DIA 2018APR06 252.00 at a price of maximum/around $2.00. If 258 is reached, this trade would pay me over 200%.
*I may increase my position if a breakout occurs (next Monday or Tuesday).
**I put a Head & Shoulder Pattern on my chart; it doesn’t mean that we are going to see one materialize, but I’m keeping an eye on it. So as long as this pattern makes sense, we cannot really short until the neck is broken at 246-247.
Have a nice weekend,
support at 8300 or will we go lower? Only time will tellMy last published idea ended up working out as planned. Bitcoin was shy of target by about 130 bucks, but no matter that's you buy/sell a little conservative of the target. We can see that on the upside, it bounced off the top of the downtrend channel again. Let's see if we keep support at 8300-8700 and form a double bottom, or if we go lower.
I'm putting a VERY small part of my trading stack in around 8550 to see if the sideways continues and if I can squeeze a little out of the consolidation in the channel. If not, we'll be buying on the next support levels and monitoring the overall trend. I am very doubtful of a dip below 6000, so if it does dip lower I'll just be putting my higher buys in for long term holds and put larger amounts in on the way down. Most trader say to wait for confirmation before opening a position. I'm still figuring out what those confirmations look like, but my trades have been getting better each week as I learn more.
Please note, I am an amateur and am speculating - this isn't financial advice - Do not trade my trades unless you agree with me in your gut.
Double Top neckline Broken.In this variation of my most recent chart we see that the downward pennants (continuation patterns) are playing out and the price has finally broken the neckline of the Double Top. This validates a downward breakout. This should have triggered stop losses if you hadn't sold already. In addition to the neckline being broken we also see that the crucial 50% fib retracement level has also been broken. This is an additional validation of a continuing downtrend. Any time we see a break above or below a .5 Fib line we expect to see the trend continue in whichever direction it was headed.
At this point I would not buy in until volatility diminishes and bollinger bands narrow at some point in the future. If you attempt to buy in until then you are essentially attempting to catch a falling knife.
It is time now to abandon emotional hodling and make this potentially dire situation work out in our favor. We have the opportunity to double our holdings by waiting for the right moment to re-enter the markets. Otherwise we will be stuck holding bags awaiting recovery. But most people will eventually cut their losses at the exact wrong moment, somewhere near the bottom where people like me (hopefully) will be slowly buying back in and accumulating all of the coins lost to negative market sentiment.
If you don't feel comfortable executing trades in this bear market then I would suggest you avoid looking at charts for a long while. The last time this type of market crash occurred for Bitcoin it took two full years for the markets to recover. Those who didn't sell at this point in 2014 watched their BTC go all the way down from 1200 to around 200 USD and fluctuate around that level until the winter of 2017. It is very possible that this can occur again.
Before you respond with emotion and negativity I would ask that you please evaluate yourself and see if you are being subjected to confirmation bias. Otherwise, all disagreements, criticism, and competing arguments are encouraged and welcomed.
I'm here to make money and to learn. If you have a strong suspicion that I am wrong, I will gladly accept any criticism.
iML TV TradeHouse NFP Price Projection Bullish AUDUSDAUDUSD Price Projection for Non Farm Payrolls March 9 2018
DXY Signaling Possibility of a Bearish Push later in the week and NFP would be the best way to push price towards expected bullish target level at .79200
Potential 20 pip Buy Zone at 0.766 - 0.764 with a comfortable stop loss beyond 0.762 (consider your broker spread etc)
Intraday trend of AUDUSD is currently Bearish.. but we will see how the story of this chart evolves during the week!
Key Fundamentals that I believe influence the movement of this trade idea are as follows:
EST TIMEZONE
Tuesday March 6
4:35pm AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
5:30pm USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
7:30pm AUD GDP q/q
Wednesday March 7
8:15am USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
8:20am USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories
7:30pm AUD Trade Balance
Friday March 9 @ 8:30am
USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
USD Non-Farm Employment Change
USD Unemployment Rate
Trading can contain substantial risk and is not suited for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than their initial investment. "Risk capital" - is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones financial security or life style. Only "risk capital" should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. iMarketsLive is not a licensed financial advisor nor does it or give out financial advice. The user of products and/or services assumes full risk and responsibility for their trading activity. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Individual results will vary due to a variety of market and timing conditions.
BTCUSD LONG Price ProjectionWatch for price action between the 10800 - 11000 Zone
Major Market Pivot identified at 14000 up to 16500
Look at the trend and compare our previous analysis when the buy position was accumulated below 6500 ...
Yellow Line at 6070.5 = Entry
Next Bullish Target 11300
Other Confirmations include Fibonacci and Order Book Supply/Demand Verification