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AUDCHF Finally we have the reaction!On AUD/CHF, we have a long setup after the price began to rotate in the 0.56-0.5630 zone, providing significant confirmations. Currently, we're in a demand zone, and the price seems to be supported by a strong trendline that holds considerable liquidity from the ascending price. Additionally, we have a price that broke two H4 swing highs; the first one lacks an interesting entry point, while the second presents an appealing entry at the 0.5657 level, where we have an H1 demand. Personally, I'll wait for the price to retrace into this zone before considering a long entry. In the case of a market entry, I would set the target around 0.5730, where we have an H4 swing high, and place a stop around 0.5602, below the market low. Happy trading to all.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Price Waiting for News Releases | Tech/Fundamental Analysis Traders, today we have those news releases for Wed, 28 Jun 2023.. Buyside liquidity then sellside liquidity.. Use these news as your trigger and most importantly, confirm your entry.. This view is linked to my previous view, please review it.. Price may reprice higher than H2 FVG and into my "sell area" marked in my previous idea.. Those are areas of "possible" reversal points, and entry should be confirmed in the proper time.. I'll keep you updated ✅
Short
by MST_Trader
EURJPY Sell Idea Hello traders. EURJPY formed a double top at multiyear High levels. However, during evening of yesterday, some big players closed their positions and as a result the market direction was occured due to the surpass of sellers. I think that the psychology of this pair is mainly short and any spike can be considered as a sell opportunity either if it touches the trend line again or if it touches the upper resistance zone. My long term target is approx. 137 zone which is a OB and strong demand zone. But there are plenty intermediate take profit levels on other support areas. Today's Lagarde's speech will be of importance about the future of this pair.
Short
by The_Forex_Path
1
Double top or breakout courtesy of YellenGBPUSD is clearly set up for some nice action later today. Yellen can bring this back down and create a nice double top. Depending on how market reacts to her speech we could see a test of the upper channel and either see a break or a touch and drop. I'm leaning towards the later. RSI and stoch are lower PA is flat We are right at the upper level of the downward channel. Of course we just had fairly decent GBP figures so if market is relieved with what they hear (dovish speech) GBP might continue it's recovery and head towards levels we haven't see since the Brexit vote. If this happens I would wait for the breakout to settle and enter on correction and retest of broken upper channel. BUT, my personal bias is bearish.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn326052
XAUUSD : Review on Various Bull Possiblities.Its been very evident that even the strongest bears went positive since BREXIT on Precious Metals for intermittent rally or pullback from the supercycles as we call. Everybody would agree that 1300-1310 would serve as strong demand area and resistance from previous tops especially March 2015 highs. The breach woud open the gate to 12XX and bear would take thier chance to push down as much as possible it can. Probably 1250-1211 would be bears targeting for. On current Daily Chart I see huge range play from 1300-1330 for next whole week and I believe this the last bear week and will make perfect Bull Flag on weekly. We have bottomed the STOCH and RSI hover around 48-50 on daily. So Huge Sideways possible within range till 27 July, Yellen still might not give green signal to rate hikes in august as statisticians or Economists would treat previous two NFP data as Anomaolies and would wait for more evidence on job reports. Dovish stand likely to induce rally in all PM and would again try to target previous tops and 1375-1390 Region. I have charted all bull possiblites, if not anyone of those being played, God help the bulls !! because it will dive down so hard that even bear has not imagine. Good Luck for Next Week Happy Trading.
FX:XAUUSD
by robus
1
LONG DXY/ USD VS GBP: HAWKISH FOMC LOCKHART SPEECH HIGHLIGHTSFOMC Lockhart was the 4th Fed this week to imo be relatively Hawkish with his words, most notably reinforcing with the others brexits near-term stability saying "Doesn't Expect 'Brexit' to Have Near Term Impact on Economy" and " So Far 'Brexit' Reaction Largely Orderly". Most interestingly though was Lockharts view on the FOMC's positioning for future rate increases, saying "Won't Rule Out Two Rate Rises This Year" - which is extremely hawkish given most expect 1 at the most.. Back up this sentiment by insisting that the Fed is "Fed Not Behind Curve, Has Time to Decide on Next Rate Move". Nonethless Lockhart did somewhat contradict his "rate expectations" by saying "Time for 'Cautious and Patient Approach' to Rate Policy" which surely shouldn't be the case if 2 hikes are coming - that would be on the aggressive side. All in all, Lockharts comments go hand in hand with my Bullish medium term USD/ DXY view (see previous articles) - I like the USD vs EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, NZD in the medium term so long DXY/ USD is favoured, even more so if 2 rate hikes were to be realised this year. At current levels short GBPUSD is my favourite expression FOMC RATE HIKE IMPLIED PROBABILITIES - On the likelihood of rate increases, in the past 24 hours, from the Federal Funds Rate implied probability curve we have seen rates/ probabilities firm after yesterdays "risk-break" recovery, with a 25bps September/ Nov hike steepening to 17.2% from 11.7%(Wed), and Dec setting new highs at 35.9% from 29.5% (Wed) - Dec also went on to double the probability of a 50bps hike to 5.1% vs 2.8%(Wed), giving Lockharts comments some weight. FOMC Lockhart Speech Highlights: -Fed's Lockhart: Fed Not Behind Curve, Has Time to Decide on Next Rate Move -Lockhart: Time for 'Cautious and Patient Approach' to Rate Policy -Lockhart: So Far 'Brexit' Reaction Largely Orderly -Lockhart: 'Brexit' Will Increase Long Term Uncertainty -Lockhart: Doesn't Expect 'Brexit' to Have Near Term Impact on Economy -Lockhart: Bond Market Yields Largely Reflect Flight-To-Quality Buying -Lockhart: Too Soon to Say 'All Clear' for Financial Markets -Lockhart: 'Brexit' Not a 'Leman Moment' -Lockhart: Still Expects U.S. to Grow by 2%, Expects More Job Gains -Lockhart: Economy is 'Performing Adequately' -Lockhart Says Fed Has Time to Decide on Next Rate Move -Fed's Lockhart: Presidential Election May Be Boosting Economic Uncertainty -Fed's Lockhart: Won't Rule Out Two Rate Rises This Year
TVC:DXYLong
by QuantumLogicTrading
SELL EURUSD/ LONG USD, DXY: HAWKISH FED GEORGE SPEECH HIGHLIGHTSIMO FOMC George was largely bullish/ Hawkish $ on the margin; surprisingly coming out and stating for one of the first times that "Fed rates are too low" and "Not Raising Rates in June Was Due to Timing Issues" - these two statements imo hint that a hike coUuld be on the cards earlier than perhaps was expected (Dec), in-light of his opinion of them being too low and that the missed June hike was merely due "timing issues".. could these timing issue be corrected in July? Unlikely given the Brexit result (likely if the vote was bremain), but nonetheless this was more than encouraging. On the wider economy George remained upbeat, highlighting last weeks NFP report as "welcomed news", and in the medium term reaffirming that "pace of job market growth has been notable" and "economy nearing full employment. The only downers were his comments regarding business investment which he said was "weak" but after went on to assure that "outside of energy, business investment levels were better". Further, he cited that brexit issues were "longer run" uncertainties that the FOMC will watch. Federal Funds Rate Implied Hike/ Cut Probability curve updates: On the back of the strong 100k+ beat NFP print last week, going into this week we have seen an aggressive steepening in the Fed Funds implied prob curve across the tenors; Fridays steepening trend has continued into this week, where now a September/ Nov Hike trades at 12%/11.8% vs 5.9%/5.9% on Friday and 0%/0% on Thursday, with a Dec hike trading at 29.6% vs 22.5% Friday. - This aggressive steepening, especially in the front end (where probabilities have doubled), is likely a function of FOMC member Georges Hawkish comments today, the NFP print and the aggressive recovery in risk across the board in the past few days which have all collectively improved confidence, which in turn has eased sell-side pressure on UST rates - today 10y UST rates have managed to trade 4.4% higher on the day (tnx), with 30y yields also up +0.95% - this is the first real break of downside pressure we have seen in rates for the past month. Trading strategy: 1. The above combined has helped my broad long $ view with my favourite expressions short term being in NZD$ and AUD$ downside (See attached posts). In the medium term, EUR$ and $JPY dollar upside are my favourite trades for the risk-on element that will readjust the USD higher in the backend of this year (see attached posts); And the Monetary policy divergence + brexit uncertainty that should bring EUR$ to a lower equilibrium in the future also. Alternatively, this view can be aggregated as pictured into a long DXY play, where imo, it trades 3-4% below equilibrium - index should be near 100. FOMC Member George Speech Highlights : -Fed's George: June Jobs Data Was 'Welcome News' -Fed's George: U.S. Economy Has Proved 'Resilient' -Fed's George: Expects to See 'Fairly Steady Pace of Growth' -Fed's George: Consumers Strong, But Business Investment Weak -Fed's George: Outside of Energy, Business Investment Levels Better -Fed's George: Pace Of Job Market Growth Has Been Noteworthy -Fed's George: Economy Close to Full Employment -Fed's George: Labor Market Recovery Not Evenly Shared by Workers -Fed's George: Labor Pressured by Loss of Middle Skilled Jobs -Fed's George: Fed Policy Limited in Role For Long Term Labor Trends -Fed's George: Fed Rates Are 'Too Low' -Fed's George: Fed Should Raise Rates Gradually -Fed's George: Not Raising Rates in June Was Due to 'Timing Issues' -Fed's George: Brexit Issues Are Longer Run Items to Watch
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
3
Long GBPAUD - Fundamentals and Technical matchesEntered Long GBPAUD at 1.83295 (200-Hour Smoothed MA and also 23.6% of 1.72134-1.86828) Fundamental: With BoE minutes/ RBA Speech/ Australia CPI inflation coming out, volatility should ensue. USD weakness has caused both GBP and AUD to be at elevated levels. Feels AUD more so after better than expected China GDP, IP, etc. numbers. Technical: AUDUSD has been in consolidation since start of the month, whilst GBPUSD looks more likely to look for a retracement after the swift fall. Daily chart as above also showed a bullish flag pattern on the GBPAUD pair (credits to EagleTrades - link below) Both 100 and 200 DMA are trending upwards SL right below 200 DMA which coincides with previous high in August (1.81866) TP1/2 at 1.8600/80 respectively
Long
by Speculator2