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Macro Monday 36~U.S. Johnson Redbook Index (U.S Retail Sales)Macro Monday 36 The Redbook Index – U.S Physical Retail Store Sales (Released Tomorrow Tuesday 4th March 2024) This Johnson Redbook Index is very useful at providing the most current insights into consumer spending habits in the U.S. It is released every week covering the prior Mon – Sun consumer spend period in physical outlets around the U.S. The index is compiled by Johnson Redbook Service by surveying a sample of 9000 retailers, and tracks year-over-year changes in sales of stores that have been opened for at least one year. The Redbook Index historically tracks sales information from physical stores (Brick and Mortar Stores). Their website describes that they monitor "retail sales" and "same-store sales" which typically refers to physical locations, however some stores also now have an additional online presence, thus in recent years efforts have been made to incorporate some of the online sales data into the index, however this is a secondary and marginal. The Chart The Redbook Index provides the YoY percentage increase or decrease of USD in retail sales in the United States. It is released every week covering the prior Mon – Sun spend period giving a real time read on current consumer spending It being a YoY data release means the percentage change in the Redbook Index is typically measured by comparing the current week's retail sales to those of the same week in the previous year. This calculation is expressed as a percentage to show the increase or decrease in sales over that time period. Example: If retail sales for the current week are $110,000 and sales for the same week last year were $100,000, the percentage change would be * 100, resulting in a 10% increase. The chart above illustrates the following: ▫️ The average % from 2005 to 2024 is 3.59% (black line in middle). We shall use this as our average midline barometer of retail sales. ▫️ Moderate levels of retail sales appear to fluctuate between +6% and -0.1% (white area in the middle). ▫️ We have an Exuberance Zone (Green) for when retail sales were over extended to the upside and a Recessionary Zone (Red) which was penetrated during the last two recessions. ▫️ You can see that in the mid 2000's we bounced off the Recessionary -0.1% zone three times as the index also made a series of lower highs (see arrow). This could be perceived as waning or struggling retail spending ahead of the crash. At present we have a series of lower highs and we have bounced off the Recessionary Level (-0.1%) once, if we see continued lower highs and more bounces from the red zone, this could be a concerning repeating pattern. You will be able to press play on my TradingView page at any stage over coming months to see where this index has moved on this chart. Lets see how this index performs over coming weeks and months. PUKA
ECONOMICS:USRI
by PukaCharts
$MA - 5-count Breakout with Pending CatalystHas recently broken out of a wedge with internal 5-count started in early November on news of stimulus passing. A larger stimulus payment would be very bullish for $MA - likely enough to take it to & through ATH of ~$367. Below are my targets & extended targets. Entry: Either re-test of Wedge ($342) or Break above $348.21. TG1: $355 TG2: $363 Extended TG3: $370 Extended TG4: $380 Invalidated: <$330 Like & follow if you enjoy my work :)
NYSE:MALong
by willoptions
1
Increased Bullish Pressure on EU and the PoundUS Consumer credit has fallen significantly, representing telltale signs that debt-intensive purchases have been falling signalling within North America that growth is beginning to show serious signs of depressed growth, of those similar to the '08 crisis. Because the US Yearly GDP is fueled by roughly 68% consumer-based debt/spending, this may be the beginning of a significant deterioration of the dollar as we head into wave 2 of COVID globally. This coupled with a looming presidential election does not bode well for the US dollar. We are beginning to witness the significant effects in the inherent damages of a global pandemic on the 'mighty-US' economy. This is a very short-term forecast, I believe DXY will rally into the Asian-Session while selling off into Late-London and Early-New York. Investors will turn to 'neutral-risk-on' currencies such as EURUSD, GBPUSD as New York opens tomorrow. However, it is to note that significant news weighs on the pound as Brexit talks falter. Further analysis will be provided on the majors before NY open tomorrow. In the long-term, I believe we will continue to witness this deterioration until the market fully digests the chosen presidential candidate and a vaccine is in the distribution phase within the USA. (4-6 month forecast) As always, use proper risk management practices, matching your risk tolerance. This is solely an opinion, not financial advice. Trade safe.
Long
by Granborough-Capital
Cup-&-Handle in the TBT- Interest Rates Going Higher, Tax Probs?Hold tight for this ride, there's a variety of reasons why bond prices will stagnate or fall. Interest rates should rise and be higher than they are now; "should" certainly isn't a reason for something to happen, but there are scant monetary policy maneuverings available for the Fed to keep interest rates low and by extension, prop the stock market up much longer. The TBT - ProShares' 2x Short 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF - is an exchange-traded fund that seeks to double the inverse of the U.S. Treasury Bond index on the daily. When bonds do poorly from falling prices and/or higher yields, TBT rises and seeks to double the fall of long-term treasuries. There's a lot of reasons treasury bonds don't look so hot in the foreseeable future. Let's first be honest about the state of the economy - it's not doing as well as the Fed and economic experts might lead us to believe. 1. Data continues to show GDP is not as strong as predicted. GDP estimates are coming out crazy high. It's alarming to watch as the real numbers are revised lower and lower. 2. Input costs of all types are rising. Trade concerns and commodity shortages are leading to higher input costs in sectors across the board. 3. Unemployment numbers don't reflect reality. The unemployment numbers themselves might be valid, but the way they are calculated today is misleading. Experts claim that unemployment for college degree holders is below 2%. If the assessment is based on simply whether or not degree holders have a job, that might be true - but the numbers are false with regard to the reality of America's employment situation; an engineering graduate who is cooking pizzas for $8.50 an hour might have a job, but their pay grade is a fraction of what it would be if they could find employment in their field. Record-low unemployment numbers are no good when it means law school graduates are working as office receptionists and scientists are waiting tables, etc., and that's a more prevalent situation than what experts might lead us to believe. 4. The tax cuts aren't - and won't - help the middle- and working class as intended. The stated goals of Trump's tax cuts were to repatriate offshore money and bring corporate tax rates to competitive levels with countries like China. Those goals may be becoming realized, but the end result is not beneficial for the little guys. We've heard feel-good stories of employers tossing out $1,000 bonuses to employees, etc., but the reality is companies are using the favorable tax situation for stock buyback and M&A (merger and acquisitions) - and as a whole that benefits people at the top much more than professionals in the middle or workers at the bottom. So, the overarching situation is this: tax cuts aren't helping the everyday worker as much as experts might expect, and workers may be finding employment but they are underemployed and underpaid. Bottom line? Lower tax receipts with unfettered government spending will mean the U.S. Treasury will need to issue bonds. Bond prices will flounder and yields will rise - just as the Fed will presumably need to start printing money (QE 4?) - begging a couple questions: How are bondholders going to get paid? How is the strength of the dollar going to be maintained? Simply put, there are fundamental reasons for the price of the TBT ETF to climb higher. Similarly, there are technical reasons for the TBT to rise too - a cup-and-handle has printed in TBT's chart. This indicates higher prices in the future. A TBT trade is a little more involved than most, but could pay off with big returns on investment as the story plays out. Please like, follow, and share, and maybe we can have fun and do great things together. Thanks again! See it on the site: holsturr.com/category/markets/charts/ ** For speculative and research purposes - good luck! **
AMEX:TBTLong
by holsturr
XRT Retail Earnings POTENTIALRetail earnings are in full swing this upcoming week! Here is a TA based version of my expectations for the week. In previous quarters the strong USD and the slow down in Consumer Spending hit profits hard. With retail sales up throughout the quarter and consumer confidence at 2016 high, all around beats are expected. Driving retail market capitalization back to Q2 2015 level offers a short-term 8% return. In the longer run, or collectively throughout the remainder of Q2, a 16% return is in the works.
AMEX:XRTLong
by TraderDanER