Echoes of the Past: Analyzing E-mini S&P Futures 2008 vs. 2024Introduction to E-mini S&P Futures
E-mini S&P Futures stand as a testament to the intricate dynamics of financial markets, capturing the essence of broader economic trends and investor sentiment. As we navigate through 2024, these futures face a situation reminiscent of the prelude to the 2008 global financial crisis. This article embarks on a journey to analyze the current market position of E-mini S&P Futures against the backdrop of October 2007, unraveling the echoes of the past through which we could have a glimpse into the potential trajectory for 2024.
Historical Parallels: 2007 vs. Today
In October 2007, E-mini S&P Futures approached the precipice of a significant market downturn, attempting to break the all-time high set in March 2000 in vain, marking the peak before the devastating 2008 crash. Fast forward to today, we find ourselves in a similar position, with the market challenging the all-time high set in January 2022. However, the context now is markedly different, with indicators and market fundamentals suggesting a more robust potential for upside than downside.
Technical Analysis of Current Market Position
A detailed technical analysis paints a vivid picture of the current market. Key resistance and support levels are scrutinized, with a particular focus on how they compare to those of 2007. Indicators such as RSI, and MACD are employed to dissect the market's momentum and volatility, offering insights into potential future movements.
Additionally, to ensure the analysis remains impartial, we're utilizing a 42-day regression channel on both prices and indicators. This sophisticated tool will discern whether there's a convergence of trends or, conversely, a divergence between price movements and indicator signals.
2007/2008 Presented a Strong Divergence
Prices and Indicator are Not Diverging in 2024
The October 2007 Echo
The situation in October 2007 serves as a stark reminder of the market's capacity for sudden and profound shifts. By analyzing the market patterns, investor behavior, and economic indicators from that period, we draw parallels and contrasts to the present day, providing a multi-dimensional view of the potential market trajectory.
Breakout Teaser in 07/08
In October 2007, the E-mini S&P Futures made a daring attempt to surge beyond the previous all-time high price levels. However, this potential breakout turned out to be a deceptive "fake-out," setting the stage for a significant downtrend that persisted until March 2009.
Consequently, as the potential breakout faltered and the E-mini S&P Futures prices began their descent, they encountered minimal resistance to the downward movement. This was primarily because there were no significant support levels in close proximity, leaving a considerable gap until the next substantial support zone was encountered at markedly lower price points.
Potential Opportunities Amidst the Bad News
Despite the ominous shadow of 2007, the current market scenario reveals opportunities. The bad news dominating headlines may indeed present favorable conditions for trading E-mini S&P Futures at more attractive prices. An objective analysis, free from the emotional weight of the past, reveals a market teeming with potential for informed traders.
Break-Out or Fake-Out this Time?
The above chart bears a striking resemblance to the scenario observed in October 2007. However, it's crucial to acknowledge the distinct differences in our current market conditions. In 2024, the convergence of the RSI and MACD with the price, as opposed to divergence, paints a notably different picture. Furthermore, as depicted in the chart below, the proximity of significant support price levels forms a robust barrier, challenging the development of a downtrend and underscoring the unique nature of the current market landscape.
Forward-Looking Insights
The analysis leads us to a series of forward-looking insights. A comparative historical approach, coupled with current technical analysis, suggests that while the market is at a critical juncture reminiscent of 2007, the outcome may not necessarily follow the same path. The article discusses potential market scenarios for E-mini S&P Futures, considering the interplay of economic reports, investor sentiment, and global events.
With this delicate balance, influenced by both past events and current market conditions, we present a comprehensive detailed trade plan which would benefit from such potential new all-time high prices being formed.
Trade plan elements for a Risk-Defined E-mini S&P Futures Opportunity:
Understanding the Instrument : E-mini S&P Futures is a futures contract with a point Value of $50 per point. Traders willing to reduce the risk of the trade can use MES (Micro ES) which would reduce the exposure by a factor of 10 times less.
Risk Management : Experienced traders prioritize risk management. Using stop-loss orders or hedging techniques is imperative to avoid undefined risk exposure.
Precision in Entries and Exits : Aligning entries and exits with relevant market price levels can help manage risk. When a price point generates a bounce, the trader stays in the trade; if a price level is violated, the disciplined action is to exit the trade promptly for a predetermined loss.
Relevant Price Levels for E-mini S&P Futures : Currently, ES1! shows relevant support levels starting 4662.50.
Proposed Trade Plan:
ENTRY: At a significant support level identified by the analysis: 4662.50.
STOP-LOSS: Set at a calculated risk level below the entry: 4481.25.
TAKE PROFIT TARGET: Aimed at an identified resistance level which in this case does not exist and therefore we are taking a Fibonacci projection: 5300.50.
This plan offers a structured approach with a clear Reward-To-Risk ratio, aiming to capitalize on potential market movements while ensuring disciplined risk management.
Navigating 2024 with Lessons from 2008
As traders look to navigate the uncertain waters of 2024, the lessons from 2008 become invaluable. The article provides a nuanced strategy framework that incorporates risk management, market timing, and scenario planning. It emphasizes the importance of vigilance, adaptability, and informed decision-making in capitalizing on potential market movements.
Conclusion
The echoes of 2008 reverberate through today's market, presenting a unique blend of challenges and opportunities for traders of E-mini S&P Futures. By analyzing the past and present, this article provides a comprehensive view of the potential market dynamics for 2024. It concludes with strategic insights and a potential opportunity for traders to leverage the lessons from the past while remaining agile and informed in the face of future uncertainties.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes, forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Spfutures
As we Approach the 4307.50 target, a Reminder Seems AppropriateI’ve written about price heading to the mid 4200’s to low 4300’s for a while now. By my count, I’ve written a total of 4 times just in the month of September.
Links below:
Sept 15
Sept 14
Sept 8
Sept 2
The target moved up slightly following the Sept contract change to Dec from 4256 to 4307.50. As the analysis changed, I adjusted my targets. But I must be honest, this has been a difficult pattern to trade so far up till today.
From an educational standpoint, yes, I found some silver linings. Ones in which I feel will end up working in my favor in the future. However, I didn’t decide to write this article to announce to my followers how great of an analyst I am.
I did so to issue a reminder.
When price does finally come into the 4307.50 area…if we bounce impulsively higher in a 5-wave pattern, we may complete an abc correction to the downside and rally for the remainder of 2023.
However, if we breach 4307.50 to the downside for a sustained period of time, and price continues to move through the 4250 level. That is our first big clue (NOT CONFIRMATION) that we’re headed to 3200-3300 MINIMUM IN early to mid 2024...
Just a friendly reminder.
Best to all,
Chris
SP500 Is Looking Higher By Elliott Wave TheorySP500 is looking higher for wave 5 of (5) of a five-wave bullish impulse by Elliott wave theory.
SP500 is bullish from 4100 area, an impulse that can resume even higher as the current sideways price action at 4360-4500 area appears like a corrective fourth wave, possibly a triangle or flat, but in either case more gains can be seen this month. Hidden divergence also suggests that price can be looking for a support soon. Support is at 4368, for a more complex and deeper w. 4.
S&P500 On the 4hour MA50. Sell if this breaks.S&P500 / US500 almost touched today the 4hour MA50 for the first time since June 1st.
This is a Support and as long as it holds (along with the Channel Up), buy and target Resistance A at 4500.
If the price crosses under the Channel Up, sell and target the 1day MA50 at 4235.
If the 4hour RSI makes a Bullish Cross before 4235 gets hit, then book the profit on the short earlier and switch to buying again.
Previous chart:
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S&P500 Near the top on two patterns. Pull back possible.S&P500 is testing Resistance (1) on the Channel Up inside the larger Megaphone pattern. Currently it is at the top on two separate patterns.
The MA50 (1d) is supporting the Channel Up and the MA200 (1d) the Megaphone.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
2. Buy on Support (1).
3. Sell under Support (2).
Targets:
1. 4175 (Support 1).
2. 4300 (top of Channel Up).
3. 4000 (bottom of Megaphone and near MA200 1d).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) Highs (70.00) and Lows (30.00) match perfectly the Tops and Bottoms of the Channel Up. Use this to your advantage. RSI values of 70.00 are to be sold while values of 30.00 to be bought, as long as the Channel Up holds.
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Notes:
Past trading plan: