SPG - Simon Property Group Technical and Fundamental AnalysisWait the right signal to go long based on Technical and Fundamental Analysis
Simon Property Group says it plans to have roughly 50% of its malls and outlet centers reopened again within the next week
As of Monday, the company said it has reopened 77 of its properties in the U.S., where local lockdown restrictions have been eased. It said a dozen of its premium outlets have reopened.
As of March 31, the real estate owner had roughly $8.7 billion of liquidity, consisting of $4.1 billion of cash on hand and $4.6 billion of available capacity under its revolving credit facilities and term loan.
SPG
$MAC A Dismal 5 Green Monthly Candles In 3Yrs, After Short Call!On Jan 11, 2017 I posted my short on $MAC based on the changing tenor of the American consumer. The shift to online shopping was and is the greatest threat to retail in my opinion. $MAC was a highly leveraged deep in debt company that, in my opinion was in the crosshairs of industry that would be facing some serious headwinds. Rent PSF was going to plummet as anchor stores throw in the white towel.
Well... 3 years to the month and this resulting chart speaks for itself...
Now we enter a new phase in mall REIT turmoil. It's known as COVID-19. This could very well be the nail in the coffin as community gathering has significantly been reduced. Malls and mall tenants have some serious challenges before them.
$SPG Whopping drop since my short call in March 2019!The original thesis revolved round a complete paradigm shift in the way Americans shop. The brick and mortar retail industry is in the crosshairs of a complete disruption. It is now an online driven retail economy. As mall retailers falter left and right, rents per square feet will suffer drastically which strikes at the center of $SPG's revenue with share holders ultimately paying the price in losses. Anchor stores are dropping and the impact to REITs is undeniable. Much has been written about $SPG strong balance sheet, but it all boils down to revenue. I could care less how strong your balance sheet is, if money coming in is less than the year before... you're at a loss. If you invested 100 million developing a mall property in 2017, and in 2020 that properties valuation is worth less... you're at a loss on paper. You can try and ride it out if you paid cash, but it's a hell of a difference when your LTV's are in excess of 70%
The mall bubble has burst, rents are dropping, CAP rates will explode, CRE will collapse.
SPG - LONG TERM PLAYWe've been looking at SPG for a long term play. The company has been pumping big $$ into renovations around the country at it's mall sites. They also offer a nice dividend at 5.63%. We're waiting for a breakout out of the wedge that's been forming for a possible play to the upside.
$spg cup and handle forming -higher time frame shows price breaking through 50 day moving average meeting resistance at previous support at 163.5x area
-mid time frame is showing bullish price action breaking out of resistance area of 162.2x but right away meet resistance at 163.5x
-looking for price to consolidate and pullback in a tight range bound consolidation for a big breakout with momentum completing the cup and handle pattern on the higher time frame
Big Breakout Level On Watch For $SPGInvestors should be watching the price action on Simon Property Group Inc (NYSE:SPG). Any stock trading close above $188.25 triggers a dual trend line breakout. That is when investors should buy. Take a look at the stock chart below. Simon Property Group Inc has been chopping sideways for the last three months. Multiple times it has tested the $188.25 level, each time falling back down. The fact that this price point has been tested multiple times, signals that it is a major level. Once it breaks, there is significant upside to $200.00 within days, further after that.
View every trade I take right here: verifiedinvesting.com
SPG- Possible second entry, looking for $180 April putsWe had a very good option trade with SPG & now it seems getting ready for another fall. It is breaking down from longer term upward channel & the target could be as low as 153
To trade this we would consider $180 April puts currently $11.85
You can check our detailed analysis on SPG in the trading room/ Executive summary link here-
www.youtube.com
Time Span: 5:45"
Trade Status: Pending
SPG - Short from current price to 182 SPG breaking down a upward channel & could not show upward strength recently. Also a lot of insider selling in the Retail REIT sector.
We think it will break down now & our target is $182
On the option side we are looking for Jan2017 $210 put which trading for $10
You can check our detailed analysis on SPG in the trading room/ Executive summary link here-
www.youtube.com
Time Span: 16:45"
Trade Status: Pending