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Spike-trading

XYL Multiple Levels of SupportAlso on my morning Spike scanner came up NYSE:XYL (see below for the spike on the 30m timeframe). I especially like this Support level as it has many matching components: 50% Retracement Level. My bread and butter. The most important Retracement Level. Volume Profile node. Not the POC but a key level of price and volume here. Ichimoku Cloud. A long flat SKB with the Lagging Span far away from crossing into bearish territory. This is the Spike that triggered me to look and find price acting such a way at Support: The take profit target is easy to find; the POC on the Volume Profile for the bullish trend. The stop is between the current VP node and the next significant one (which could be next support but no reason to take that much risk).
NYSE:XYLLong
by norok
Bitcoin Spike at ResistanceBitcoin HELD the Last Support noted in my Idea last week. That save INDEX:BTCUSD from going bearish. However, it is not out of the woods yet. Today Bitcoin spiked the 50% Retracement Resistance at 64652. This sets up a short trade where if the high of the spike is broken "you know you're wrong" for a low risk/high reward trade. If the Spike high is broken... Bitcoin may trend bullish and even resume the full bull trend onward to 100k+. However, if this spike is a reversal and price retests the lows of last week, this will trigger a full trend flip to bearish via the Ichimoku cloud.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by norok
1
ADBE at Volume Profile NodeThis morning NASDAQ:ADBE triggered a Spike Alert on the opening 30 minute bar. I double checked this signal against Volume Profile. On the weekly there is a major Volume Profile node at 480 considering the bullish trend from September 2022 to January 2024. The spike this morning touches this level and have moved off with a significant Spike: The Spike allows me to start a trade on the 30 minute timeframe with low risk and a 3:1 Reward/Risk ratio with the intent to play the higher timeframe Weekly move as a major pullback. If we increase the time considered the Volume Profile node becomes even more significant as the POC (Point of Control) for the price action going all the way back to COVID low.
NASDAQ:ADBELong
by norok
3
Trading Bitcoin FuturesTo keep actively trading Bitcoin short... I am watching and trading Bitcoin futures. This morning there was a 30 minute timeframe Spike right at the level I have been watching since after the ETF launch: the 50% Retracement of the "Sell the News" phase. I am looking for price to hold this level as Resistance and retrace at least back to 41000 in short time. Higher Timeframe Update: The area of Resistance that is the 50% of the ETF Selloff is where Bitcoin has retraced to over the last week. On Monday 1/22 I was able to hedge my Puts by selling shorter dated Puts against them to hedge and offset theta. I closed them yesterday. Broadly, Bitcoin is still in this battle zone from the ATH to the November 22 low. Mainstream Adoption Back in the old days... Bitcoin was best traded spot on margin on exchanges. Now, all the reputable exchanges are KYC and the new ones popping up would never fool an old timer like me into putting money there. I have even received spam here on Tradingview from exchange reps trying to get me to do affiliate programs. No, never. Bitcoin is now a heavily traded asset with countless derivatives. It is truly mainstream.
CME:MBT1!Short
by norok
2
JP Morgan Short off All Time HighWith the stock market making new All Time Highs fresh new opportunities for contrarian trades are going to be somewhat scarce. Thanks to a viewer on my Livestream (every Friday on Tradingview: 4pm EST UTC-5) I was made aware of a short setup I like on NYSE:JPM Context This price action is happening at a test of the past ATH set in November 2021. Last week the Earnings announcement pushed price intraday above the high only to close well below the key Resistance level of the former ATH. This is a false breakout signal or as I like to identify them as: Spikes. The Spike The Spike occurred on Earnings. I have found that false breakouts on earnings have a very high probability of signaling a reversal. The significance value (135% ATR) is within my rules. It took until the following week for price to actually pull back to the proper entry point of the Spike bar's Tenkan Sen value at 172.48. What these factors mean I go over during my Livestream. The Trade How I am expressing this trade is in a combination of short shares and Puts. In choosing my Put strike I look for where I see price going as a target via technical analysis. In this case it would be the 50% Retracement of the bullish trend around 155. For expiration I consider the prior bullish trend that got price up to the high I am reading as a false breakout to enter. I project the time that trend took, add an additional month as a time buffer, and then typically take that expiration. Unfortunately, an option expiring in March as this technique would suggest puts the expiration too close and just before earnings. A note about options and earnings: In the 4 weeks prior to earnings very typically a stock's options will experience a rise in IV (implied volatility). This rise in IV and the Greek Vega can increase the prices of all options often offsetting the value lost to theta time decay. This is a very advantageous condition if a trader is long single options. Therefor, I chose the April expirations to give myself the potential for the IV push. I will likely close the options the day before earnings regardless of where price may be. Options are a coin flip.
NYSE:JPMShort
by norok
1
Bearish Bitcoin Spike on the Weekly"Buy the rumor/Sell the news" is a phenomenon as old as markets. It was like betting on the sun not to rise tomorrow. I have talked to many Bitcoin enthusiasts who are perplexed by this occurrence. They were assured by various Twitter personalities that this week would see the largest inflow of capital into Bitcoin ever, price would rise, and if they just bought prior to the news they would make tremendous gains. This was never going to happen. With the close of the prior eventful week's candle we now have a confirmed price Spike on the INDEX:BTCUSD Weekly. On Wednesday amid the "buy the news" nonsense price briefly surpassed a major high set in March 2022 only to retrace the entire ETF launch and then return to the bottom of the prior range. This is a very bearish signal from which price does not typically recover. The first level of Support will be found around 32.2k; the 50% Retracement of the rally since November 2022. The most ironic, and most likely outcome, is that price retraces the entire ETF hype rally. Breaking the ETF news high would of course resume the trend upward but at this point despite the memes circulating Twitter trying to reassure all to HODL that is a very low probability with the price action we have seen. I remain short Bitcoin via pre-existing ETFs such as AMEX:BITI and will be adding to them during the coming week. Wall Street is not coming to save your longs...
Editors' picks
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by norok
66
Bitcoin Spike on DailyOne of my primary technical analysis trading tools is that of False Breakouts or as I identify them; Spikes . I have found that when prices moves quickly in one direction only to return in the opposite direction within the same or following candle this indicates a potential reversal with a high probability. The corollary to this concept is that if price does then break that "spike" bar the trend can be confirmed. The Spike I have been watching the price action of Bitcoin exceptionally close over the last few weeks as the 2023 bullish trend approached and has stubbornly held a major Resistance. On the first US market open trading day of 2024 Bitcoin made a push to break the recent consolidation. However, the following day Bitcoin price reacted with a nearly -10% drop. Such a daily move is not uncommon in Bitcoin but where and when it happened is significant. I operate under the logical thesis that if something is bullish... it should GO. There should be no such major rejections if the trend is strong. To have such a sudden rejection qualifies as a "Spike" and I created an indicator that identifies these for me to filter out the noise. That is exactly what happened at this point and place in Bitcoin price action. This spike bolsters my conviction that the 2023 bull trend of Bitcoin has reached its zenith. The Levels If this spike proves to be a bearish reversal then the supports I identify based on past price inflation and 50% Retracements are: 35,400 30,700 If price surpasses the high of this week significantly the next level of Resistance is the March 2022 high of 48,200: Expressing the Trade Contrary to popular memes there exists already Bitcoin based ETFs. Rather than deal with the theta decay aspect of options the symbol AMEX:BITI is the SHORT Bitcoin ETF. The price action is distorted but it also exhibited the Daily Spike price action. This instrument is the one I will use to express bearish trades on Bitcoin going forward. I talk about my Spikes as a trading concept often during my Weekly Livestreams here on Tradingview. You may also follow my last few years of Bitcoin price action analysis in the links below to see how we got here. Trade wisely!
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by norok
6
Netflix Identifies ResistanceWe have been watching this stock for a while during my weekly Livestreams (Fridays 4pm EST UTC-4). Last Friday, we noted that NASDAQ:NFLX has pulled back up to retest the 50% of the July Weekly Spike price action. This is happening following a long bullish recovery trend up to the MAJOR Weekly 50% Retracement Resistance of the November 2021-May 2022 bear trend. The price action has defined itself clearly with the July high. The risk and wrong occurs with a breach of the July high. With this in mind we can define a high risk/reward trade to at least a 3 to 1 down to 257 and possibly beyond to retest the major low from 2022. Implied Volatility is below average which is good for options. However, this is NOT a trade that can be effectively expressed with low duration expiries even though it might be tempting due to the high cost of the stock. To express this trade one must go well into 2024 expirations or short shares.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by norok
4
Target-ing (TGT) a LongThe Setup Target NYSE:TGT has had a very bearish fall off All-Time-Highs over the last 2 years. It has finally retraced the entire length of its run from the 2019 Pre-COVID High and returned to it as potential Support. Price MUST hold here or else continue down to lower levels in the "Valley of Risk". It is worth a trade off this level. The Trade: Today on the opening 30 minute spike we got such an opportunity for a low-risk entry. The price spike had an acceptable ATR Clearance per my rules and happened on the 50% Retracement of the June low to June high. The first Target is the June high with a following target of the 50% Retracement of the 2023 bear trend around 153.39.
NYSE:TGTLong
by norok
12
Norwegian Cruise to get back above water?When's the last time anyone has looked at cruise lines? I remember back in 2020 cruise lines were the "value trade". It worked for a while after the pandemic drop... the price of these stocks recovered. NYSE:NCLH did a recovery back to the 50% Retracement Resistance of the drop itself... but could not quite get its head back above water. Yet another in a long list of examples of why 50% Retracements are so powerful. The price action over the last year has setup higher lows and higher highs. This gives some confidence to a true recovery. This morning I was alerted to the stock by an opening 30 minute price spike and false breakout of the last week's range. This sets up a good reward/risk trade with an entry at 12.51.
NYSE:NCLHLong
by norok
1
Gold Bugs Squished?I've been talking about Gold COMEX:GC1! hitting a major high for my last two Livestreams (catch them Friday at 4pm Eastern after the market close). The current price action warrants a standalone post. Each Livestream for many months has had at least one person ask what I thought about Gold. It was very simple: Gold was trending UP to test the major Monthly highs. In many of my social market chats about two weeks ago my gold bug friends began getting very excited. I urged caution. Price MUST break the high and confirm the breakout before getting long at this major Resistance Level. Now it looks as of gold price is respecting this monthly high from the last few years. To be contrarian I had to short Gold (using AMEX:GLD ) based upon a Spike setup from Friday May 5th's high. Last week price pulled back and "should have gone" to retest and break the high. It did not and returned back inside the range. This sets up a short. I also know from taking market sentiment that a lot of traders may have gotten a bit overly optimistic. This could setup for a good pullback to at least the 1850 Level.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by norok
1
Home Depot "Plunges" to SupportAll media invokes sensationalism to get clicks and views to see their ads. Some really play into the doomer mindset of their readers/viewers by selecting stories that amplify the theme of the world/economy/dollar ending and that the next crash is right upon us! I've been reading these headlines every day for over a decade now and it's just the way modern journalism works. As a trader I aspire to cut through the noise and negative bias (and sometimes the positive bias) and ask the more objective question: "what does the price action suggest?" Home Depot NYSE:HD had earnings today and while the news was negative the overall long term trend (on the Weekly timeframe) has not changed. The key low of COVID and All Time High trend has defined most stocks for the last two years and may continue to define them for up to a decade. This past trend sets up a 50% Retracement level around 280.62 which Home Depot stock price has stubbornly held with an auction zone for a year of price action by now. Digging down through the lower timeframes the price action sets up a potential low-risk post-earning trade. The price action of the open poked below the near term low but failed to follow lower. What I would look for is price to hold today's opening action and NOT break the opening low. That sets up a stop for a reversal of this oversold condition while the broader price action on the Weekly is at a major Support.
Editors' picks
NYSE:HDLong
by norok
15
I cannot cannot short this...Today's CPI data (down to 5.0% from 6.0% YoY) created interesting and actionable price action this morning... more on my thoughts about it later. Technically the data release created a Spike Alert by punching through the pre-market high and then closing back inside it before the cash open. This is happening within two important contexts: A double top for the price action of April's highs The 4155.25 level which is the most important level of 2023 4155.25 is the 50% Retracement for the entire 2022 bear market. This is THE level which the S&P 500 has been holding all year and stubbornly refusing to break higher. The first time it was hit was the December 2022 CPI data. That signaled the December bear trend to yet another key 50% Support. The next time was the top of the January 2023 rally that got everyone excited. Following the recent February/March malaise price is once again testing this level. The CPI data release has very much driven the highs and low (October CPI being the major bottom) for the last many months. Inflation, and how the Fed handles it, has driven this current era of the stock market (and all risk assets). While the news is that inflation is coming down it is still well above the Fed's target 2.0% rate. There is no guarantee or sign that the Fed will change its mind. Yesterday I sat in on a presentation that juxtaposed the current GDP numbers (which have been recently positive) with the LEI (Leading Indicators) which are sending up a recession signal. I am ALWAYS hesitant to take FUD into account in my analysis. However, the signal is the signal. The trade of this post is based upon a confluence of four factors (news event, spike, double top, 50% Retracement). My rules state that I must trade this... win or lose. The LEI is also a signal that has a high probability of efficacy. It should also be heeded.
Editors' picks
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by norok
39
Tesla Head and Shoulders at ResistanceThe month of January saw a huge RIP on Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA lifted by broad stock market bullishness and Artificial Intelligence buzz with the launch of ChatGPT (Tesla is widely considered an AI company rather than just a car company). February saw this bull trend stall at major Weekly 50% Retracement Resistance (see below) at 213. Price has tested and respected this level in the past and I had been waiting for the trend to hit it. I entered my short on 2/9 (being early and being wrong are often indistinguishable). Now as the month of price action has continued it seems to have setup a Head and Shoulders pattern. I noticed on 2/13 some buzz on social media the first significant pullback to the trend created. Many that had missed out on the January action began to FOMO in. This short term rally pushed price to the resistance on 2/15 and briefly broke it intraday on 2/16. However, price closed the Daily and Weekly bars below the major Resistance to confirm that it held. Now this morning I received an alert for a Bearish Spike at the open. This spike high could be the creation of the Right Shoulder of the pattern. The 213 Level is important because it is the 50% Retracement of the entire 2019 Low to 2021 All Time High. Price respected this level in summer of 2022; held it, reversed bullish off it, but failed to reach and make a new All Time High. Once it broke the level in November 2022 Tesla entered the "Valley of Risk". Now price has come back to test it from the underside as Resistance and so far the price action is showing signs of respect. Additionally, the Bearish trend that began in September 2022 and ended with the start of the January 2023 rally has its own 50% Retracement right around this area to match.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by norok
2
CNC At Important LevelCentene NYSE:CNC fired off a signal on this morning's open at a "50 in 50" level. The most important level is the COVID Low to All Time High 50% Retracement which for the last few weeks price has been testing. This is an important multi-year level that the stock price needs to hold to continue to retest the all time high. To reduce the initial risk on this trade I will drill down to the swing trading timeframe price action. Here we see the last few weeks with an overshoot of the support, price recapture the major 50% level, and now do a short term 50% Retracement around that level. Holding within this range sets up for a long term bullish move off the Supports.
NYSE:CNCLong
by norok
1
Solid Level for AMZNI have been stalking NASDAQ:AMZN share prices for months now watching as it retraced from the All Time High down to a full 50% Retracement from the All Time Low. This is a pretty epic pullback level that took decades to create. The 6 month downtrend from 146 > 81 created its own 50% Retracement at 114 as Resistance. February earnings popped to this level and confirmed it. As the January bull run fades AMZN comes back again to test the broader level. Even as we drill lower to the intraday timeframe we can see the 50% Retracements begin to setup. The volatility around today's FOMC minutes shows respect for the level. This sets up a low risk opportunity to play the decadal Support.
Editors' picks
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by norok
26