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Spike-trading

PSA Win Looking Good for HigherI carved out a win today on NYSE:PSA to start a trend off the Weekly 50% Level. This has a chance to run based on the technical setup as well as a possible secular bull trend if one believes people will need to store their stuff into a housing crunch. The initial trade began on a 30 minute timeframe spike (which unfortunately was not caught on Tradingview data). With a stop just below the spike low of 1/19/23 I was able to play the position to a conservative high retest. Now I am keeping on shares as runners. Incidentally... PSA has held a major 50% pullback before on the COVID low. The entry point now is the 2016 high of that trend that created said pullback. This is a great level to take long.
NYSE:PSALong
by norok
LMT PullbackI sold off some of my long term LMT holdings last week before EOY to capture some capital gains. LMT was a big winner of 2022 up over 37% and price was stalling at the All Time High. This morning I received an alert for an opening price spike that created a critical low at 469.35. This is not a spike I would take as a reversal to go long. Rather, I am watching to see if price breaks this low to signal a breakout short. If the short breakout triggers I would look for a pullback to the 50% Retracement of the last earnings rally around 445.
NYSE:LMTShort
by norok
Market Top on CPI News - Santa might not come this yearThe price action of 2022 has been dominated by inflation related news. The start of the recent rally began with the October CPI print where an expected 8.3% came in at an actual 8.2%. This was a slight change but the first sign that inflation may have peaked and thus the Fed might pivot from their interest rate hikes. The market has loathed higher interest rates all year. Even if one did not know the details of the news the action of price was enough to see the signal of a rally. Price performed a false breakout to the downside (A Bullish Spike) seen on that October 13th Daily bar that kissed the 50% Retracement of the entire COVID Rally as seen on the Weekly chart below: This week yet another CPI news event triggered a Bearish Spike at the 50% of entire bear move from the ATH down to that October low. This in itself is a sign that the market will be bearish through the end of the year and into 2023. Additionally, the inverse relationship of the VIX TVC:VIX gives another clue that the market has turned. VIX for the third time this year has made a turn at the key Support of 20 which in both March and August signaled the highs for that period: I would like to believe in the Santa Claus rally for 2022 but the technical signs point to coal in equity stockings...
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by norok
Howto Day Trade Nasdaq Futures - Reversal AND Breakout Same Day!Today was an unexpectedly exciting morning to trade Nasdaq futures CME_MINI:NQ1! ! I love trading false breakouts and this morning (November 1, 2022) provided double sided action where buyers and sellers battled it out. The one to break first was going to be the winner and today it was the bears! My best strategy which I have been honing for years relies on these price spikes and today's action played out beautifully for both a reversal off the week's double top and a breakout to continue that reversal. By popular demand I am making this video demonstration to help traders learn to spot this unique price action. This action and opportunity does not come around every day but when it does it yields some Home Run wins (or as I call them... properly risk adjusted trades)!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by norok
6
UPS Post Earnings PullbackNYSE:UPS Triggered a spike alert this morning which is happening at the 50% Retracement of the Post Earnings Rally. (see below for Daily higher timeframe context) These are the real "earnings plays" that can yield positive returns rather than trying to buy a guess on the day before. Trying to buy or sell the day before earnings is a guess but very often earnings cycles create these setups weeks after a move has occurred with a much higher probability than a 50/50 bet.
NYSE:UPSLong
by norok
JP Morgan (JPM) Post Earnings PullbackFor certain stocks I have Spike alerts setup on multiple timeframes to find opportunity. Today a Spike Alert triggered on the 2 Hour Swing Timeframe for NYSE:JPM . Where this spike in the opening morning price is occurring is at the 50% Pullback to the post Earnings rally. I was able to put on a position at the 50% proper this afternoon. This sets up a very low risk entry to play a move back to retest to highs of the post-earnings rally and beyond.
NYSE:JPMLong
by norok
3
Nasdaq TopNotable figures such as Michael Burry and Puru Saxena have taken opposing sides on what this rally means. I enjoy how Burry made a very hedged statement... noting that at 23% it was within average but did not imply the Nasdaq's rise itself predicted the future. Puru took a more affirmative view that this was more than a bear market rally. Today's intraday price action on CME_MINI:NQ1! was a morning sell off down to support: Price counteryeeted at an Overnight low Inflection Point into a sharp rally which has been all too common in the last many trading days. But that price action showed the signs of a false breakout here after a long, extended rally. The Spike fits my rules and must be taken. With a stop above today's high the risk is fixed and a proper 3 to 1 down to a 50% Retracement of the recent move up from August 9th. CME_MINI:NQ1! .
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by norok
1
An Idiot's Guide to EURUSD: 5 Steps to Success 💲💲💲Synopsis If you trade Forex then you know the weekends are the best time to analyse the market. Everybody likes to talk about how volatile EURUSD is, but what they don't tell you is that the market is ranging a good 80%-90% of the time; good deals do NOT last long. In fact, half of a days price movement can play out in 15-45 minutes, It's that fast. The best entries are usually snatched up in a matter of minutes, meaning that slow momentum oscillators and lagging trend following indicators don't perform well in these conditions. EURUSD in my opinion trades a lot like CL (crude WTI), where trading decisions need to be made while volatility is low to mitigate risk. Translation: if you can't win in a range, you're going to blow your account in this market, trust me. I see so many people on here setting targets 2-3 times the daily atr with the expectation that they'll be paid by the end of the day or the next day. Don't do that, please. It's not a sprint, it's a marathon. Long term gains depend on practical consistent returns, not 10:1 RRs. It's actually a lot more realistic to take ZERO to two 20-40 pip trades per day. Over the course of a week it adds up. The chart: This week we came off of a really strong bullish surge away from parity, and the market then did what it does best, range. And the way that prices are moving right now is just classic EURUSD, I love it...I get so nostalgic, because ranges like these are how I learned to trade; the way that the market recycles over and over makes it so fun to trade, it never gets stale. Since it's the weekend and the markets are closed, I wanted to take this opportunity to share with anyone who might be wondering what it's like to day trade this market. How to trade ranges: Step 1: Find your levels... The easiest way is to map out support and resistance zones. On the chart, I use my own variation of the Williams fractals indicator (I call them Neo fractals 😎) for every prominent swing high or swing low, the indicator draws a horizontal ray from the highest, lowest close and projects it out into the future. You can see the spots where lines start stacking up in a certain price range act as stronger support or resistance than the areas with only one dotted line. It only takes about 5-10 minutes per day to do this by hand though, so an indicator definitely isn't necessary. It's really important to be able to eyeball pivot points yourself anyways. Step 2: Determine market phase... After you've mapped everything out, it becomes a lot clearer what's happening in the market, and if the market is ranging or trending. If the market's ranging, you will see far more s/r lines on your chart especially once you start seeing s/r lines stacking up close to one another. A clear giveaway that the market is ranging is when price makes strong moves in one direction, only to return back from where it came, later in the day. Once you've determined what phase of the market you're even closer to spotting high quality trades. Step 3: The next step is to find areas of value... In general you want to find the areas within the range which provide the most exclusive prices, And steer away from price ranges that hold 80-90% of the activity on the cart. Being 5-10 pips in profit before a big move will completely change the way you feel about a trade when it starts to go against you (plenty winning trades will go against you, especially if you're trading reversals). On the chart you can see that the supply and demand zones only produced 2-4 trades this week, but all of them were for over 50 pips. These aren't the only trades you can take, but they're definitely the highest RR trades, you can get in a ranging market. Step 4: What for confirmation... There are so many ways to confirm a move, but my favorite for this market is a phenomena that I like to call a spike. (There's probably an actual name for it, but I'm self taught so I just make stuff up as I go 😅) Find a hammer or star candle on a higher chart like the daily or 4hr and it look at that time period again on a lower timeframe, what you'll see is that the hammer or star is actually just a large price movement in one direction followed by an equally large movement in the other direction. What might appear as a spike on a lower timeframe will appear as a hammer or star on a higher time frame, and the larger and longer the chart pattern takes to complete, the larger and longer the move will be in the opposite direction. These are the Rolls Royce of signals. When you realize that a head and shoulders pattern is really just a series of spikes, it will completely change the way that you trade. In my experience, trading price spikes alone out performs every other chart pattern there is, because most candlestick and chart patterns are made up of a series of spikes anyways. Most consolidation periods end in a large spike followed by a 1-200 pip surge in the opposite direction. They appear most often on higher timeframes as hammers and stars, or large engulfment. but on the lower time frames you can watch these things play out over 5 ,10 or even 100 periods sometimes. The key is to have very strict rules for what you consider a spike to be, how many pips? What kind of ratio are you looking for? is it happening in an area of value? etc. Step 5: The range leads to the trend... The reason that trend following strategies under perform in this market is because strong trends don't last long on EU AND getting good value is insanely competitive. The key is to spot these trends early, you have to be looking when nobody else is looking. That means waking up earlier than everyone else and having a plan in place before the move happens...Not seeing a big candle and just hopping in. I try to have a daily strategy in place before the Asian session ends, that way, I''m ready for London and NY. I live in the US, so that means I'm waking up everyday around midnight to 1 in the morning. But most of the time, if my trade starts well, I go back to bed and check back in around 7. If you want to trade EURUSD, that's what it takes though. There might have to be lifestyle changes that you have to make (especially for North and South American traders) in order to really commit yourself to this market and give your trading it the attention that it needs.
Education
by NeoDaNomad
Bank of America Spike on EarningBank of America stock NYSE:BAC had a swing trading Spike on earnings today (see below). The spike on earnings is a catalyst I like to look for as a potential risk defined long BUT it is occuring within price action at no clear prior support level. The broad COVID > High 50% Retracement is down at 34. It will still be worth watching today's Daily close to see if price recovers the March low for a potential failed bearish breakout. Sitting and watching for now.
NYSE:BAC
by norok
1
Entered Long ETHBTCEntered an exploratory long inside the recent consolidation of the Ethereum/Bitcoin cross. This trade expresses my thesis that Ethereum is becoming the dominant coin in the cryptocurrency space and should continue the recent trend of appreciating against Bitcoin. BITFINEX:ETHBTC has recently been caught between two major Retracement levels and this mid-consolidation trade is putting risk on that the consolidation will break to the upside. Lower timeframe setup and signal below:
Long
by norok
4
"Facebook Can't Go Lower" Part 3Back in February Facebook/Meta NASDAQ:FB dropped over -20% on earnings. This was crazy for such a big profile, mega-cap company and many investors though (and said) "Facebook can't possibly go lower" and used this justification to buy right on the drop. From a technical standpoint that drop blew past support and with so many people saying "Facebook can't go lower" my trader senses told me one thing... it WILL go lower. That is why I made that line into a meme at the time. Now, after many new lows and 68 days of trading after the dump a technical setup has formed that I actually like. I don't know the future but at this point you have a defined bullish trend of buying to key off that has pulled back to a 50% Retracement. From this price action a trader can size their position and risk accordingly. This is something that was NOT possible if someone just bought on the dump alone. It was entirely possible that Facebook could have gone lower and lower. Fortunately and unfortunately it did not. Fortunately, as many investors are surely glad. Unfortunately, because returning to breakeven and then profit fails to leave the impression on those that jumped the trade without patience. The Lesson here is simple: Wait for price action to provide a setup. Even if it takes months.
NASDAQ:METALong
by norok
1
Solana Spike at SupportToday on social media I was asked "what cryptocurrencies can be used to mint NFTs other than Ethereum". Solana is the second most popular. I was checking Solana BITFINEX:SOLUSD on the daily and I do see a spike trade setup on that timeframe. I wondered why it did not fire in alerts and it is because the ATR Clearance is below the threshold (70%) so it is not one I would trade by my qualification rules. SOLUSD spike is happening at what looks like a support for now. The good reward/risk trade was long from 86.27. If it breaks the stop level... that's bad... so you know where you're wrong and price could fall into the uncanny valley of risk .
BITFINEX:SOLUSD
by norok
2