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Spike-trading

Money where your mouth is... ARKKI admire folks that are willing to put their trading out there for comment and criticism. It takes a lot of emotional control to trade in isolation much less when under public scrutiny. Cathie Wood was the idol of the trading world last year and widely followed for her style of exciting and parabolic investing as well as her public charisma and confidence. There was one interview in particular (I wish I could find it now but she has done many) where she acknowledged that within her trading history she has had cycles of incredible returns invariably followed by large drawdowns. She gave this interview right around the peak of her funds' performance last year. Real recognize real. That she would openly acknowledge and admit that she had self identified this pattern of her trading spoke to my own journey and likely that of all serious traders. She had acute self awareness and in some way, in that interview and comment, was warning people to be cautious with her strategy at that current moment. Now as her funds decline other traders are trying to make a name for themselves off her fall. One of which that has come to my attention is Puru Saxena. He is vocally short her funds and very bearish. That is fine for them to have a battle; no need for me to get involved. Cathie has her strategy focused on long term growth. Puru bases his strategy on macro. Neither are my game. But now it gets interesting for me as a Technical Trader. At the same time Puru is adding to his short AMEX:ARKK is sitting right at a 50% Retracement of the major trend. Over the last few days price spiked below this level only to recover quickly above it. These are my strategy. So now I get to step into this battle by putting my own capital on the line. It's a low risk/high reward trade. Not for the money but for the validation of Technical Analysis versus macro.
AMEX:ARKKLong
by norok
6
Looking for a rally in Oil stocksThe market looks to be recovery today and the most interesting stocks to me were oil companies ( NYSE:XOM , NYSE:MRO , NYSE:COP ) which all exhibited morning open volatility spikes. The one I liked the most because it was at at 50% Retracement (see high timeframe below) is XOM so it fits my criteria for a long trade. I'll be looking for a retest of the last major highs. This is also an addon positions to a winner from the beginning of 2021 (see Related Idea).
NYSE:XOMLong
by norok
4
SPY within bearish spike tradeThis Wednesday nearly every stock in my list is up. The market as a whole is doing a recovery today. I went to the Daily AMEX:SPY to see where price action stands and found that price action of the SPY is within a bearish spike that occurred on November 22. In any instrument this would be a signal albeit the statistics of the spike's clearance are sub optimal. As price approaches 464 it will test the 50% Retracement "line in the sand" as Resistance. Conquering this, it can go on to retest the ATH, make a new one, and continue the "Santa Claus rally" that I have been expecting from this "normal" year. If the bearish pattern continues it could find support in the region around 450 that was a prior ATH and the 50% retracement of the last leg up. Currently momentum remains bullish according to Ichimoku. Price has through the first days of December to stay on the bullish side of price action.
AMEX:SPY
by norok
3
Comcast long after earningsNASDAQ:CMCSA had earnings yesterday and the stock opened and spiked below the October low. It quickly recapture the range setting up a good spike opportunity. I like taking these sort of setups because earnings is a good catalyst to move a stock (in either direction) and also removes that unknown volatility factor that could disrupt an otherwise good trade. NASDAQ:CMCSA is a long term portfolio hold for me so this position is a trade and an addition on a pullback for the stock. I use Comcast and they are continuing to dominate the broadband space. I also have it in a basket strategy with other broadband related stocks such as NASDAQ:HLIT , NASDAQ:COMM , and NASDAQ:CSCO .
NASDAQ:CMCSALong
by norok
SHIB Smart PlaysHere’s my insights on how I’m playing $SHIB, meme coins can be even more profitable with proper analysis and not just wishful hodling. SHIB/USDT has been keeping consolidation patterns and is currently in consolidation right now. Volumes still in the billions and social media presence is still buzzing. Analysis report is remaining in BUY. SHIB has been steadily spiking and dropping about 20%-30% and then repeating the process for the past couple of days. All stats are still pointing at another spike, and then opportunities to short. I’m currently holding 1 futures contract on SHIB (long) and holding a bag of about 10M (to pull after potential next spike). Then the next drop I can open short futures contracts and keep repeating this process until the pattern breaks. Following this allows profits to be obtained in both directions
by therealjaso
1
Spike Trade ExampleThis morning on the jobs report the S&P 500 futures spike in the premarket to a new All Time High but quickly shot back down. This triggers my indicator and an alert withing Tradingview to come check the price action and yields a potential trading opportunity. The risk is defined by the + at the top of the spike. Fundamentally, if the market makes a new ATH the trade is wrong and should be exited. If this volatility spike reveals a top then the trade should hold and the lower + represents a 3-to-1 reward-to-risk target from the entry on a pullback to the red median line. These + indicators are tools for defining the risk and reward of the trading opportunity. Technical Analysis would give potential Retracement Levels. The first Retracement Level at 4505 happens to yield the desired 3-to-1 target as indicated. The longer term Retracement Level at 4450 could be a more ambitious target for more reward or to allow a partial position to continue after reaching the first target.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by norok
Why you still need to take profits in BitcoinFollowing long happy trends where everyone enjoys easy gains often follows hard consolidations where lacking discipline will cause traders to burn capital. That does not mean traders have to fully ignore the market during consolidations. The wise way to approach them is to be dispassionate and take opportunities with structured risk and target levels. This is a followup to my Friday Livestream where I acknowledged my bearish sentiment in BITFINEX:BTCUSD had me miss a key Resistance turned Support which also setup a volatility spike trade on the 30m timeframe right at said level. Price held the Major Retracement level to achieve a 3-to-1 reward/risk trade. At which point a wise trader could have cut their position and left on a remaining long position to allow for a bullish continuation. Price came back to entry following the profit level which would have put the trade in peril... but since profit was taken even a loss of the remainder would still yield an overall net positive trade. The trader would not have needed to move their stop from the initial level to maintain the position for today's pump. Be mindful that the recent highs are still not broken and Bitcoin continues to trade within this range. Trade wisely!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by norok
Ethereum setting up breakout shortThe 60 minute chart of BITFINEX:ETHUSD created a support here around 3150 in the middle of a rising consolidation. Breaking the spike low would break the support, break the lower bounds of the flag pattern, and confirm an Ichimoku cloud breakout. These are three ways using different indications to identify a potential breakout. I dislike when charts get too cluttered but at the cost of having a very busy chart I wanted to demonstrate the methods in a single idea. Choose a method or indicator that makes sense to you as a trader and then study it to mastery.
BITFINEX:ETHUSDShort
by norok
1
PGNY at 50%NASDAQ:PGNY is a stock that I have been in for over a year. It is a rare case where I have a fundamental bias (rather than technical to start) as a friend clued me into it June 2020. The fundamental case for this company is that they offer fertility services and their "moat" is that already have many deals with Fortune 500 companies that offer fertility packages in compensation to workers to delay parenthood in favor of careers. With the research showing that the trend is continuing that women are delaying family in favor of career I believe this company is a strong hold for the coming decade. It is now providing a technical setup with a short term risk defined entry. I have been waiting for such an opportunity after watching the last year's run.
NASDAQ:PGNYLong
by norok
Hedging with short JPMWhen the market reached a (new) All Time High earlier today I wanted to get some short Delta in my positions. I learned my lesson during the 'recent unpleasantness' bottom of 7/19 that being all net long puts one at risk of volatility in a portfolio... even if the positions themselves individually remain strong and profitable. This morning's volatility setup a good short entry on NYSE:JPM that by looking at futures this evening should hedge against tomorrow's potential downside.
NYSE:JPMShort
by norok
1