Gap before EarningsNYSE:GPS fired off a bullish signal this morning at a support level that fit my rules for a long trade entry. I'll be watching this closely through the week as the stock has Earnings on 5/27 which can be a maker or breaker of a great trade.
Spike
SPY Sentiment Signal BearishEvery day I scan the market for individual stocks within the S&P 500 index AMEX:SPY for short term volatility either bullish or bearish. I have begun compiling these signals into a derivative indicator. This morning's score was a -11. The last time the indicator signaled -11.20 was on 4/16/2021 which preceded a few days of downside in the market. This morning's price action made a slight try to get up and test the All Time High but seems to be failing. The first part of the day's down move has retraced to the 50% Retracement level of the day. It is worth taking a short here to test my signal, play the day's price action, and benefit from an asymmetric reward/risk. A failure to retest the last ATH could have much downside.
Autozone Post EarningsNYSE:AZO triggered a spike alert this morning on earnings announcement. Price action is at a support and worth a buy to play back to the top of the range and beyond.
As an aside, used car prices have increased dramatically in the last few months due to the shortage of new car inventory coming to market. Some of this is due to material costs and companies like Ford NYSE:F have been reported to be having backlog due to computer chip shortages. These market forces are compounded by inflation.
Vix could have one last spikeThe VIX could have one last spike left in it before it settles down for this secular bull market run. When it settles down it should settle below the '20s but until then a potential catalyst for another spike could be the June 10th CPI release or if a member of the Fed mentions tapering. If numbers come in hotter than expected again, there could be a frantic sell-off accompanied by a spike in the fear index as people worry it is non-transitory.
I am still overall bullish on the market since we are in a secular bull market but corrections are normal, healthy, and necessary in order for the market to take the next leg higher. BMO came out with a year-end target on the S&P of 4500. Some projections show that inflation could run hot for 6 months, which would be transitory. As for the damage it could do to the underlying economy, that is unknown. As for equity, stocks are a natural inflation hedge.
BPTH Case StudyI remember seeing this move live in real-time when it happened. It was amazing!
Thought of doing a study case of this pattern.
The chart is self-explanatory.
First, you wait for the first part of the pattern to happen ----> Huge gains + Huge Volume
Second, you watch it does the first pullback, and keep an eye on the HIGH.
Third, when the stock is making a new high, you enter with momentum, risking to the previous low.
The previous low is almost 50% away but it is fine, it is safer this way, being conservative protects you in the long run, putting 1 unit of risk on this trade.
Either to take profit on the way up somewhere when the profit seems substantial, or according to the gap theory, or take profit when touching the EMA, or when you see the move is drying up.
You can see that the move is drying up when there is no substantial volume on the rallies + the rallies don't follow through.
Note to self: I noticed that when there is a downtrend on drying volume, odds that the downtrend will continue ---->>> POTENTIAL SHORT SETUP
*** Could possibly look at options if they are profitable or not for this trade.
MU Triple Top inside Triple TopI like the price action for a bearish play on NASDAQ:MU . This morning spiked to make a local triple top which is also creating a Daily timeframe triple top.
This is a good example of using Multiple Timeframe Analysis as I talked about in my last video idea, linked below. We are using a short term timeframe setup combined with a higher timeframe setup.
Options also have very good spreads.
DRE triple top plus double topHave not seen a trade I liked in too many weeks but this morning NYSE:DRE setup a 30m timeframe triple top at 43.07. This also matches closely with the stock's ATH back in November. It is worth a swing trade short shares setup. Unfortunately options liquidity is scarce.
April 4 Market UpdateMy apologies for the absence of communication. Was sidetracked with other projects and only posted to my website.
In the coming sessions, participants will want to pay attention to where the S&P 500 trades in relation to Thursday’s end-of-day spike higher.
More On Spikes: Spike’s mark the beginning of a break from value. Spikes higher (lower) are validated by trade at or above (below) the spike base (i.e., the origin of the spike).
In the best case, the S&P 500 remains above the $4,004.25 spike base. Doing so means that the participants are finding higher prices, above the VWAP anchored from the March 17 rally-high, valuable (i.e., buyers, on average, are in control and winning since the March 17 rally-high).
More On Volume-Weighted Average Prices (VWAPs): A metric highly regarded by chief investment officers, among other participants, for quality of trade. Additionally, liquidity algorithms are benchmarked and programmed to buy and sell around VWAPs.
In the case of higher prices, given that the $4,015.25 price extension was achieved in after-market trade that established an overnight high at $4,038.25, participants can target the $4,062.00 extension.
More On Overnight Rally Highs (Lows): Typically, there is a low historical probability associated with overnight rally-highs (lows) ending the upside (downside) discovery process.
Any activity below the $4,004.25 spike base puts the rally on hold and calls for balance or digestion of higher prices.
Balance (Two-Timeframe Or Bracket): Rotational trade that denotes current prices offer favorable entry and exit. Balance-areas make it easy to spot a change in the market (i.e., the transition from two-time frame trade, or balance, to one-time frame trade, or trend).
In the case of lower prices, participants can look to whether a test of the $3,943.00 and $3,908.25 high-volume areas (HVNodes) solicit a response.
More On Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on past areas of high-volume (HVNode). Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure (identified as a low-volume area (LVNode) which denotes directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test).
If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low-volume, then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to areas of high volume for favorable entry or exit.
HIVE/USDT Update: All targets are fully reached >450%HIVE just spiked and did reach our last target set at 450% from our entry.
So enjoy and and have fun.
Basic rules:
- Never buy the top/ATH
- Take profit as long as you can
- Use Stop/loss for leveraged positions
- If you are not experienced, don't leverage in the first place
Enjoy the ride and don't be too greedy.
If you like the content, please like, comment and give this channel a follow.
Always do your own research and keep in mind that my charts and comments cannot be considered financial advice.
Cheers
ps.
Chart explanation:
Main lines:
- Green lines are tested support lines.
- Orange lines are resistance lines or, if we are above, possible support lines which were not tested yet.
- Cyan line is for volume trendline.
Helplines:
- Purple lines are trendlines we take a look at.
- Yellow lines are for visual help only.
Boxes:
- Either entry zone or support zone. Check the description.
ATM/USDT Update: Fully reached our >100% TargetATM had a good month and reached our target.
Since ATM is out of champions league I guess we go down within the shortterm.
That's why the re-entry box is that far down.
Basic rules:
- Never buy the top/ATH
- Take profit as long as you can
- Use Stop/loss for leveraged positions
- If you are not experienced, don't leverage in the first place
Enjoy the ride and don't be too greedy.
If you like the content, please like, comment and give this channel a follow.
Always do your own research and keep in mind that my charts and comments cannot be considered financial advice.
Cheers
ps.
Chart explanation:
Main lines:
- Green lines are tested support lines.
- Orange lines are resistance lines or, if we are above, possible support lines which were not tested yet.
- Cyan line is for volume trendline.
Helplines:
- Purple lines are trendlines we take a look at.
- Yellow lines are for visual help only.
Boxes:
- Either entry zone or support zone. Check the description.
PSG/USDT Update: Fully reached our > 100% TargetPSG had a great run mainly because of its champions league victory.
I guess it stays that way that in case of a win we go up and in case of a loss we go down.
A bit like casino.^^
Basic rules:
- Never buy the top/ATH
- Take profit as long as you can
- Use Stop/loss for leveraged positions
- If you are not experienced, don't leverage in the first place
Enjoy the ride and don't be too greedy.
If you like the content, please like, comment and give this channel a follow.
Always do your own research and keep in mind that my charts and comments cannot be considered financial advice.
Cheers
ps.
Chart explanation:
Main lines:
- Green lines are tested support lines.
- Orange lines are resistance lines or, if we are above, possible support lines which were not tested yet.
- Cyan line is for volume trendline.
Helplines:
- Purple lines are trendlines we take a look at.
- Yellow lines are for visual help only.
Boxes:
- Either entry zone or support zone. Check the description.
ASR/USDT Update: Fully reached our >100% TargetASR spiked as expected (a bit higher than expected) and is currently consolidating above previous resistance.
If this previous resistance turns into support one can see this as a good re-entry as shown by the box.
Keep in mind that this trading pair is very illiquid and likes to spike and drop.
Basic rules:
- Never buy the top/ATH
- Take profit as long as you can
- Use Stop/loss for leveraged positions
- If you are not experienced, don't leverage in the first place
Enjoy the ride and don't be too greedy.
If you like the content, please like, comment and give this channel a follow.
Always do your own research and keep in mind that my charts and comments cannot be considered financial advice.
Cheers
ps.
Chart explanation:
Main lines:
- Green lines are tested support lines.
- Orange lines are resistance lines or, if we are above, possible support lines which were not tested yet.
- Cyan line is for volume trendline.
Helplines:
- Purple lines are trendlines we take a look at.
- Yellow lines are for visual help only.
Boxes:
- Either entry zone or support zone. Check the description.
BTT/USDT TA ideaBTT saw a spike during the beginning of the February pump and is since consolidating.
Support (green line) has been tested several times and seems to hold.
So we now look upwards.
Enjoy the ride and don't be too greedy.
If you like the content, please like, comment and give this channel a follow.
Always do your own research and keep in mind that my charts and comments cannot be considered financial advice.
Cheers
ps.
Chart explanation:
Green lines are tested support lines.
Orange lines are resistance lines or, if we are above, possible support lines which were not tested yet.
Cyan line is for volume trendline.
Purple lines are trendlines we take a look at.
Yellow lines are for visual help only.
GBPCAD SETUP 1:5I noticed a general bullish trend so I highlighted that through one trend line.
The spikes out of the first trend line were quite consistent so I made a "shadow" support line.
After this I also noticed a consistent resistance line which had a few consistent drops so I created a "shadow" resistance line.
As the prices are heading towards the support line, I would look to buy the dip and ride the bullish momentum to the resistance line.