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Spoos

$SPX - What's next?$SPX - What's next? Important data coming out this week out of US as well as Powell tonight it would be a surprise if he's dovish I'd personally like a pull back in US indices and to get back in long, this principle is validated with metals as well, let's not forget NFP... As the market is forward looking, we have seen DXY decline as rates will be declining in the future as the recession heads further, the data is establishing weaker in certain areas. However, technically we are at a key area, do we pull back or do we extend further to the downside. AUD as china may open may benefit AUD - Keep a key eye as well as confluence of Indices and precious metals. The key pairs I am looking into going overall: DXY EUR YEN AUD XAU SPX DAX Looking for pull backs to go back into the trend at suitable levels matching my trade plan! Medium term positioning. All the best, Trade Journal
SP:SPX
by Trade_Journal
4
SP500 path and directionHello everyone Sp500 started a uptrend channel in April however in SEP we broke this uptrend channel but SP500 found support on the blue trend line and price went back to test the previous Uptrend channel Price respected the uptrend channel resulting a doji candle that means the previous channel is acting as resistance now Or price could get back into the channel Or we could chop in this zone between blue trend line and previous uptrend channel However any close below this blue trend line we are heading to demand zone below and also to test the purple broken downtrend line feel free to ask me anything :) and good luck Note :I see a inverted head and shoulder so far
U
by Abu-Sushi
SPX pulling back for an all time high. Target 3250+ The S&P500 has had high after high over the past few weeks after breaking out of the 3025-3030 all-time high. The index has moved nearly 4% off the new highs. From here we've seen the beginning of the first red week or reversal in 6 weeks of straight gains. It's healthy for the market to pull back slightly before breaking higher. No one wants to buy a top and that is why the volume died out near the top, which caused a sell-off. There is big money waiting below for another rally. Low-interest rates allow cheaper borrowing, stock buybacks helped assets rally and the new Quantitative Easing 4 from the Fed will all help the market continue to chug along for the next few months. However, before that we can expect a retrace. The Fib level extension is based on the impulse that brought the price to a new high. We expect the broken all-time high at 3030 or so to hold support before we get a new all-time move into 3250.
TVC:SPXLong
by TRADEPROAcademy
1 ES to play this bounce - All or nothingEntered with 1 ES contract today after market close. Initiated at 2600, stop 2571, target 2700. Playing for a 5-day bounce hoping that selling exhasted on the NY session. Fundamentals: Good macro data all over the place, earnings beats, steady investor inflows, and a nice reset to P/E ratios courtesy of the -10% correction we've just experienced. Technicals: Daily oversold (RSI) and daily lower BB. 200-day MA was tagged and a strong bid (buybacks, allegedly) emerged from there. I'm playing game theory and guessing that the smart money thinks the same and it's holding; just need retail to take a dip and the algos to ignite momo and here we gooo to 2700! Riskiest trade to date. God help me. Feedback is welcome.
FX:SPX500Long
by Daniel_Urdaneta
I BOT THE DIP - NOW I'M SELLIN THE RIPTHe S&P 500 reached it's bullish target at the 2000-2020 area (around 200-day MA on the daily chart) with a solid W-shaped recovery not unlike the one experienced on Q32015. There are a couple of technicals that I'm using as a rationale to open short positions from current levels: 1. Lower lows on Jan-Feb, 2. RSI about to hit Overbought on the Daily chart. 3. MACD is in a bullish trend, but losing momo (check the lower highs on the MACD histogram). Market Sentiment: The vicinity of the 200-day MA saw some back-and-forth during Q42015, and there's reason to believe Spoos will act the same this time; some of the main headlines/themes of 2015 (China deceleration, World economy losing steam, "limits of Central Banks", etc) are being repeated on financial media this year. Fundamentals: 1. EPS continue to be revised down, with Energy reporting worse than forecast losses during the last earnings season; 2. Lots of institutional selling from hedge funds and also from sovereign wealth funds. A reliable base bid is becoming an ever-present heavy offer.. 3. Distortion in relative valuations: S&P 500 is just a measly 5% off its all-time highs; meanwhile, almost every other risk asset class worldwide is just off multi-year lows. EM Equities and Euro Banks, in particular, are at levels below the 2009 financial crisis lows. This should place downward pressure on the Spoos, at least on a relative basis vs. these and other risk assets. 4. Policy divergence is still in play: The recovery in macro sentiment has raised again the implied odds for fed funds rate increases, and now Wall St expects 1-2 hikes for 2016. The ensuing tightening of financial conditions should at least deter marginal buyers at current levels (who's gonna be willing to buy US Equities, the most expensive risk asset in the world, at prices more than 10% above the recent market lows?) Strategy: Since this is a counter-trend trade, and I'm not sure on which would constitute a "top" in this upmove, I'd play the trade like this: 25% of the trade allocation would be on a limit sell order from 2032 (+0,5% from Friday's close), with a stop above the major resistance level of 2090, and a target of 1840, with a cool 3.18:1 Risk/Reward. 75% of the trade allocation would be left for day-trading the ensuing market bounces. I'll have the flexibility of taking the long side strategically a couple times, but short is going to be the default stance, as long as the 200-day MA doesn't act as major support from now on (I doubt it). I usually use a stop loss of 1% against the position, and 2% as take profit, with the allowance to re-enter the trade if the played trend remains solid. Best of luck!
FX:SPX500Short
by Daniel_Urdaneta