How to Read a Forex Quote: Bid, Ask, and Spread ExplainedSo, you’ve decided to jump into the forex markets and stumbled upon your first quote. Now you're staring at numbers like EUR/USD 1.0987/1.0990, wondering what these flashing digits mean. Don’t worry—we’ve all been there. Let’s break it down, TradingView style, and get you up to speed on forex quotes, bid-ask spreads, and why these tiny decimal points matter more than you might think.
The Basics: What’s a Forex Quote?
At its core, a forex quote tells you the exchange rate between two currencies. Think of it like a price tag for the money you want to buy or sell. In any quote, you’ve got two currencies: the base currency and the quote currency. For example, in EUR/USD , the euro (EUR) is the base currency, and the US dollar (USD) is the quote currency. This quote tells you how many US dollars it costs to buy one euro.
Now the fun part: You’ll notice two prices next to that quote—the bid and the ask.
Bid vs. Ask: What’s the Difference?
When you see a forex quote like EUR/USD 1.0987/1.0990, you’re actually looking at two prices:
Bid Price (1.0987): This is the price a buyer (broker or trader) is willing to pay for the base currency. In simpler terms, this is the price you sell at.
Ask Price (1.0990): This is the price the seller (broker or trader) is willing to sell you the base currency for. In other words, this is the price you buy at.
So, if you’re buying EUR/USD , you’ll pay the ask price (1.0990), and if you’re selling, you’ll receive the bid price (1.0987). Notice how the ask is always higher than the bid? That’s where brokers make their money. Which brings us to…
The Spread: The Broker’s Cut
The spread is the difference between the bid and the ask. In this case, it’s 1.0990 - 1.0987 = 0.0003 or 3 pips (percentage in points). Think of the spread as the broker’s fee for facilitating the trade, essentially acting as the middleman. The tighter the spread, the less you’re paying to execute a trade.
For major currency pairs like EUR/USD , the spread is often pretty small (like 1-3 pips), but for exotic pairs (think USD/ZAR or USD/TRY ), spreads can get wider than your Uncle Bob’s waistband after Thanksgiving dinner.
Why the Spread Matters for Traders
Here’s the thing: spreads eat into your profits. Whether you’re a day trader or holding a longer-term position, the spread is something you need to bake into your strategy.
Scalpers and day traders need tight spreads. If you’re making a bunch of small, quick trades throughout the day, every pip counts. Wide spreads can kill your profit margins faster than a rogue tweet from Elon Musk.
Swing traders and position traders are less sensitive to spreads. If you’re in it for the long haul, a few pips won’t make or break your trade. But it’s still something to keep an eye on, especially when trading less liquid currency pairs.
Market Conditions and Spreads
Spreads aren’t fixed — ideally, they should be floating around in real-time dealmaking. They widen and tighten based on market conditions. During high volatility (like, say, a major economic announcement or a surprise central bank rate cut), spreads can widen. Conversely, during quiet market hours, spreads tend to tighten.
To avoid getting fleeced by wide spreads, keep an eye on liquidity. Major pairs like EUR/USD , GBP/USD , or USD/JPY have higher liquidity, meaning tighter spreads. Exotic pairs? Not so much. You’ll pay more to play in the less popular markets.
How to Use the Bid-Ask Spread to Your Advantage
Here’s a pro tip: If you’re in a tight spread market, like EUR/USD during peak trading hours, you can place tighter stop-loss and take-profit orders, maximizing your profits with minimal slippage. In volatile markets with wider spreads, give yourself more breathing room, or wait until liquidity returns.
How TradingView Does It
On TradingView, forex pairs are displayed with a single price quote rather than separate bid and ask prices. This single price quote represents the midpoint between the bid and the ask. TradingView uses this midpoint, also called the last trade price , to better display price flow and make it simpler to analyze price trends without the fluctuation that would come from constantly updating bid and ask prices.
For traders using TradingView to monitor forex prices, this single price quote allows them to focus more on price movements and technical analysis rather than factoring in the spread between bid and ask, which as we mentioned, is available with brokers since it's their bread and butter. So factor this in.
The Bottom Line
Going expert-level at bid, ask, and spread isn’t just forex surviving — it’s forex thriving. These tiny details can be the difference between making bank or watching your profits trickle away. Always factor in the spread when setting up trades, especially if you're trading lower-volume currency pairs or during off-hours.
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Spread
How I used Volume Spread Analysis to avoid FOMO trading!As a trader, I often battle with the fear of missing out (FOMO), a common pitfall among traders that can lead to impulsive, unprofitable trades. After reviewing my journal, I determined that chasing breakouts was costing me a significant portion of my account, so I studied Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) to help me reduce my urges. Here is how is used VSA to avoid FOMOing a trade.
Before we get started, let's clarify two definitions:
Volume: Measures the number of times buyers and sellers exchange 1 unit of an asset at an agreed-upon price. It doesn't inherently indicate whether a trend is bullish or bearish, but rather that a trade has occurred. Low volume suggests that few transactions have taken place because buyers and sellers couldn't agree on price. High volume suggests that buyers OR sellers felt they were getting a bargain at the current price, leading to many transactions.
Spread/Range: The difference between the high and low of a candlestick. A narrow spread indicates little variance between what someone is willing to buy for and what someone is willing to sell for. A wide spread suggests that buyers and sellers have significantly different ideas of what the fair price is.
In short, Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) interprets the relationship between trading volume and candle spread. When volume and spread agree, they are considered harmonious, and the trend will probably continue. If volume and spread disagree, there is a divergence, and the trend may be weak or could even reverse. In general, there are three main harmonious conditions:
Narrowing spread should have narrowing volume.
Average spread should have average volume.
Widening spread should have widening volume.
I spotted a bear flag consolidation on QQQ and decided I would trade the breakout to the downside. I took a break and came back to the chart just after the breakdown had occurred, missing my ideal entry. The candle spread was widening and my first thought was "I have to get in! This thing is free falling!" PAUSE! I reminded myself that I cant make every dollar in the market. If I miss this trade, there will always be another. "Be patient and wait for the market to come back to you."
This is the chart after the initial break. What can we observe? QQQ broke the low of day with high volume and a widening red candle. Based on our definitions from earlier, we know that high volume means that buyers or sellers think they are getting a bargain so they are willing to transact as much as they can at current price. Given that price is falling, we can assume that the volume is due to aggressive selling. We remain patient and continue to watch for something to trade against.
Next, we see a narrower range candle with a long lower shadow and above average volume. By definition, strong volume with a narrow range is a possible divergence. We know that narrow range candles mean that buyers and sellers generally agree on current price, but why would it close near the highs if the selling was so aggressive? Given that there is a long lower shadow and then a bullish candle close, we can infer that sellers were not willing to sell below $467.89. The buyers absorbed the selling at those prices.
Fast forwarding, we notice that the volume and candle size has shrunk back to the average meaning buyers and sellers are in agreeance. The number of people willing to transact is decreasing. We also notice that a small range has formed. Buyers have not stepped in to buy above the previous low of day at $469.35 and the sellers have shown no effort to get back below $467.89. Now we have something to trade against instead of FOMOing in! We will look for a break of this range with increased volume.
On the next candle we see bulls break out of the range with aggressive volume and a wide spread candle. Something of note is that the volume on this bull candle is less that the volume of our initial sell candle. If those sellers were still present, wouldn't they be selling at these higher prices and forcing the candle range to be narrow? This shows us that bulls are now in control and the selling from earlier was just a hoax.
As we can see, the rest is history. If I FOMOed into the short as I had planned, this trade would have resulted in a loss. Being patient allowed me to realize that there was nothing to miss out on and actually allowed me to find a better trade.
Key Notes
Always journal your trades and review them
Never FOMO into a trade. Be patient and wait for the trade to come to you!
You dont need to take every trade to make money in the market. It is okay to miss a trade if it means protecting your account.
Volume spread analysis is not 100%, but it can be useful in determining the strength of a trend.
US Real Estate Slowdown Casts a Long ShadowLast week, U.S. housing starts, a key economic measure of new residential construction, dropped to their lowest level since 2020, with single-family housing starts hitting a 16-month low. Meanwhile, overall housing inventory has climbed to its highest point since 2020, and new housing inventory has reached levels not seen since 2008. Despite a moderating mortgage rate, high prices continue to deter buyers, failing to stimulate housing sales. Combined with the ongoing slowdown in commercial real estate, the sector may face prolonged challenges.
While the Real Estate Select Sector could see short-term gains from declining interest rates, a significant slowdown in the sector may dampen these benefits. A long position in Utilities Select Sector Index futures (XAU) to capitalize on lower rates, paired with a short position in Real Estate Select Sector Index futures (XLR) to hedge the real estate downturn, offers a balanced approach against XLR's short-term gains.
US HOUSING STARTS TUMBLE, INVENTORY SURGES
U.S. housing starts fell to 1.238 million as of July 29, a 6.8% decline from the previous week and well below analyst expectations of 1.340 million. Single-family housing starts dropped by 14.1% to 851,000, marking a sixteen-month low. Although Hurricane Beryl likely contributed to this sharp decline, the real estate sector faces a more significant, underlying challenge.
The U.S. housing market is grappling with a surge in inventory. According to Realtor.com, overall housing inventory stands at 884,000, the highest level since 2020. Similarly, data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows inventories at 1.32 million, also the highest since 2020.
The situation is even more concerning for new housing inventory, which has reached its highest level since 2008. At July's sales pace, it would take 9.3 months to clear the backlog of new homes.
Notably, the slowdown in housing starts has intensified, even as mortgage rates have moderated from their peak in May. Despite a 10% decline in mortgage rates since early May, housing starts have fallen by 8%, indicating that easing rates are not driving a meaningful rebound in housing sales.
In addition to the struggles in the residential real estate market, the commercial real estate market continues to struggle with elevated vacancies and mark-downs. Last Month, Deutsche Bank stated that the commercial real estate market would be further pressured during H2 2024 as the recovery they had anticipated was not materializing.
INTEREST RATE CUT WILL PROVIDE SHORT-TERM BOOST
Despite the challenges facing the real estate sector, upcoming interest rate cuts are expected to provide a boost through further declines in mortgage rates. However, this near-term support may not be enough to offset a potentially prolonged downturn. Rising inventory levels are not being matched by significant price reductions, and with a weakening labor market, homebuyers' purchasing power is likely to remain constrained.
The real estate sector is not the only beneficiary of lower rates. As noted by Mint Finance in a previous analysis, the utilities sector also stands to gain from declining rates.
Therefore, hedging a short position in Real Estate Select Sector Index futures (XAR) with a long position in Utilities Select Sector Index futures (XAU) mitigates downside risk.
The XAU/XAR spread has outperformed an outright short in XAR as well as the SPX/XAR spread during rate cut driven rallies in the XAR this year and remained resilient during the recent rally in XAR.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
The U.S. real estate sector is burdened by a surplus of inventory, as home buying remains sluggish despite moderating mortgage rates. High prices, combined with financial strain in a weakening labor market, are likely to keep sales low for the foreseeable future. Additionally, ongoing challenges in commercial real estate add to the sector's difficulties.
Despite this negative outlook, the real estate sector may still see some benefit from upcoming interest rate cuts. Historically, the spread between Utilities Select Sector Index futures (XAU) and Real Estate Select Sector Index futures (XAR) has shown resilience during such periods, offering an improved reward/risk profile.
CME Select Sector Futures serve as a capital efficient instrument to implement spread trades between different sectors. A position consisting of short 3 x E-mini Real Estate Select Sector Futures (XARU2024) and long 2 x E-mini Utilities Select Sector Futures (XAUU2024) balances notional values on both legs. CME provides a 60% margin offset for this trade, reducing the margin requirements to USD 11,940 as of 19/Aug.
The hypothetical trade setup described below offers a reward/risk ratio of 1.4x
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme.
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Weed or BTC?If you're bullish BTC, you should be even more bullish on weed stocks on a break of this descending wedge.
ACB/MSOS analysis - big upsideACB chart itself looks bullish, but the ACB/MSOS spread shows a cleaner set of waves to predict the movement.
Buy ACB as long as it is more bullish than MSOS. This thinking applies to any stock compared to a related ETF or index.
IWM/SPX spread - Long smallcapsBeen watching for a reversal of the trend between the 2 indexes and a breakout of this bullish falling wedge for a while.
Fundamentally it made sense to look for this breakout result because of the looming interest rate cuts and frothy bond yields since the start of the year. Small caps are highly sensitive to such things.
Long IWM or TNA is the play on this breakout. But the best value will be found in heavily beaten down individual small caps.
If you want to hedge against a market correction long small caps short large would be the other play.
Using TSLA/NVDA spread to find cluesIn yellow is the TSLA/NVDA spread or ratio, and here it shows the jump off the all time lows with the huge price spike post Musk vote.
With spread charts you can gain clues on future price action based on the other ticker. For the continued TSLA bull case, we get a pull back in the ratio to form the right shoulder of the IHS and then continue upwards.
In that case as long as NVDA continues to consolidate or trend up TSLA will remain bullish too (and outperform).
Volume Spread Analysis (VSA): Volume and Price DynamicsVolume Spread Analysis (VSA): Understanding Market Intentions through Volume and Price Dynamics.
█ Simple Explanation:
Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) is a trading technique that identifies key market patterns and trends by analyzing the relationship between volume and price spread, revealing traders' actions and market behavior.
Essentials in Volume Spread Analysis (VSA):
Laws.
VSA Indicator.
Signs of Strength.
Signs of Weakness.
Note that while the provided examples are excellent for illustrating the points, they are unlikely to play out perfectly in most scenarios.
█ Laws
Three basic laws forming the foundation of Volume Spread Analysis (VSA).
The Law of Supply and Demand
This law states that supply and demand balance each other over time. High demand and low supply lead to rising prices until demand falls to a level where supply can meet it. Conversely, low demand and high supply cause prices to fall until demand increases enough to absorb the excess supply.
The Law of Cause and Effect
This law assumes that a 'cause' will result in an 'effect' proportional to the 'cause'. A strong 'cause' will lead to a strong trend (effect), while a weak 'cause' will lead to a weak trend.
The Law of Effort vs Result
This law asserts that the result should reflect the effort exerted. In trading terms, a large volume should result in a significant price move (spread). If the spread is small, the volume should also be small. Any deviation from this pattern is considered an anomaly.
█ VSA Indicator
This indicator simplifies the identification of Volume and Spread Levels. It provides options to display volume and/or spread bars. An enhanced version of the indicator auto-scales both volume and spread for optimal chart presentation, reloading every time the chart is moved.
Levels: Representing the levels of both volume and spread using the terminalogy of low, normal, high, and ultra.
Indicator Version 1: Display volume and/or spread bars. When both are displayed, the spread bars are shown in a fixed quantity.
Indicator Version 2: Display both volume and spread bars, with the spread bars scaled to the volume bars.
█ Signs of Strength
Indicates that the market is likely to experience bullish behavior.
Down Thrust: Indicates strong buying interest at lower prices, suggesting a potential upward reversal.
Selling Climax: Signifies a reversal point as panic selling exhausts and smart money starts accumulating.
Bear Effort No Result: A large downward price move without strong selling effort (volume) indicates an anomaly where the result doesn't match the effort, suggesting the down move may be unsustained.
No Effort Bear Result: Strong selling effort (volume) fails to push prices down indicating an anomaly where the result doesn't match the effort, suggesting a potential lack of downward momentum.
Inverse Down Thrust: Shows buyers overpowering sellers, likely leading to a bullish market reversal.
Failed Selling Climax: Failed selling effort suggests strong buying support and a possible upward trend reversal.
Bull Outside Reversal: Indicates strong buying reversing a downtrend, confirmed by higher close.
End of Falling Market: Signifies strong buying absorbs panic selling at new lows, likely leading to stabilized price or reversal.
Pseudo Down Thrust: Suggests weakening of the downward momentum with a potential upward continuation if broken above high.
No Supply: Indicates a lack of selling interest at lower prices, potentially setting up for a price rise.
█ Signs of Weakness
Indicates that the market is likely to experience bearish behavior.
Up Thrust: Indicates sellers overpowering buyers during a price rise, suggesting a potential downward reversal.
Buying Climax: Represents peak buying, typically at price highs, with potential for reversal as sellers take control.
No Effort Bull Result: A large upward price move without strong buying pressure (volume) indicates an anomaly where the result doesn't match the effort, suggesting the up move may be unsustained.
Bull Effort No Result: Strong buying (volume) fails to drive prices higher indicates an anomaly where the result doesn't match the effort, suggesting a potential lack of upward momentum.
Inverse Up Thrust: Increased selling pressure during an uptrend suggests a possible shift to a downtrend.
Failed Buying Climax: High buying volume fails to sustain higher prices, indicating a potential reversal to downtrend.
Bear Outside Reversal: Strong selling pressure reversing an uptrend, signaling a potential downtrend.
End of Rising Market: Indicates buying saturation at market peaks, suggesting a possible reversal as demand exhausts.
Pseudo Down Thrust: Indicates weakening upward momentum with potential for downward continuation if broken below low.
No Demand: Indicates reduced buying interest at higher prices, possibly leading to a price decline.
Navigating Frothy US Equities with S&P SpreadsNavigating frothiness in US equities requires both caution and tact. With the S&P 500 nearing its all-time high amid flashing recession signals, investors must be vigilant with volatility during upcoming earnings season, driven by outsized expectations.
This paper explores the persistent recession indicators and forces at play during upcoming earnings. The paper posits a spread trade using CME’s Micro E-Mini futures (Long S&P 500 and Short Russell 2000) to maintain upside potential with reduced downside risk.
RECESSION RISKS PERSIST AS RATES REMAIN HIGH
On Friday, the PCE Price Index (Fed’s preferred gauge) showed inflation cooling to 2.6% in May, in line with expectations. Price pressures are slowly abating.
Numbers aside, the broader economic landscape presents a complex picture.
Signals from the job market point to unemployment claimants at a record high for the past two and a half year with job openings shrinking drastically. Personal earnings were higher than anticipated in May (0.5% vs 0.4%), but spending was below expectations. Consumers are being more cautious. Mint Finance covered these nuances in a previous paper .
Housing is flashing weakness as new housing starts hit a four-year low in May. Soaring prices and steep mortgage rates are weighing on demand.
The Fed’s policy path remains unconfirmed. However, consensus point to a rate cut as early as September. Even if that happens, rates are expected to decline gradually.
Source: CME FedWatch
Despite risk of recession, the S&P 500 has had an exemplary showing this year, trading near their all-time high. YTD performance of 15% in 2024 has been far higher than the 74-year average of 4%.
Yet, the performance has been increasingly top-heavy. Nvidia, Apple, and the rest of the tech titans have contributed much of the gains in the broad S&P500 index as it is market cap weighted. The index is heavily reliant on and sensitive to the performance of these mega-caps.
The equal-weighted S&P 500 index is up only by 4% in sharp contrast. The spread between the S&P 500 and its equal-weighted counterpart is near its highest point since 2008. The spreads between the S&P 500 and both the Russell 2000 and S&P Midcap indexes have reached multi-decade highs.
Outperformance was re-affirmed after the recent earnings season. Mega-caps crushed EPS and revenue expectations and reported phenomenal guidance while other stocks, especially utility and energy sector reported revenue and EPS figures below estimates according to FactSet report .
Rallies in mega-cap stocks are being driven by idiosyncratic tailwinds, such as advancements in AI. Meanwhile, slowing consumer spending in the US is raising concerns for the broader market.
RISK OF SHARP CORRECTION WARRANTS SPREAD POSITION
According to FactSet , Q1 earnings season was positive. Only 19% of firms reported earnings below expectations. Actual average EPS YoY growth for the index was 5.9% (above 3.4% expected as of March 31).
Frothiness in the equity market is palpable. Consistent outperformance by mega caps is baked into investor expectations. Strong earnings are already factored into prices, as evidenced by the S&P 500's P/E ratio of 28.38x (far higher than the 10-year average of 20x translating to a 42% above average earnings expectations). Average P/E ratio in the best performing tech sector is even higher at 37.47x.
Even minor shortfalls in guidance or revenue/earnings can lead to significant corrections in such a climate. The FactSet reports that 31.8% of firms which beat earnings EPS estimates by up to +5% saw average price decline of -0.9%.
Source: FactSet Research
In fact, overall, positive earnings only drove a 0.9% increase in price (1% 10Y historical average) while a negative earnings report led to 2.8% drop (-2.3% 10Y historical average).
Source: FactSet Research
Market frothiness elevates risk of a sharp price correction in single names during Q2 earnings. Analysts are concerned as expectations for Q2 EPS YoY growth have been lowered from 9% on 31/March to 8.8% as of 22/June.
Despite this, mega-caps remain in solid position. Robust demand for AI, buoyant advertising revenue, globalized revenue streams, and substantial market dominance have positioned them to continue growing at a disproportionate rate.
In case the upcoming Q2 results pan out similarly to Q1 in favor of mega-caps, the S&P 500 will continue to outperform the broader market indices.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
The S&P 500, with its high concentration of mega-cap stocks, is likely to perform better than broader market indices in the coming earnings season. However, recession signals are also flashing.
The S&P 500 does not perform well during recessions. Over the last four recessions, it has declined an average of -14%. Comparatively the spread between S&P 500/Russell 2000 spread has increased 1.7%.
The S&P 500/Russell 2000 spread has also outperformed during the six-month preceding recessions.
Given the S&P 500-Russell 2000 spread's historical outperformance during recessions, a spread position presents less downside risk compared to an outright long position in the S&P 500.
This strategy also maintains a bullish outlook on the top-heavy S&P 500's potential to outperform in the upcoming season.
Moreover, the spread trade preserves the upside potential in the ongoing rally, as its performance has been comparable to an outright long position in the S&P 500.
A view on the spread between the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 can be expressed using CME Micro E-Mini Equity futures. At 1/10th the size of the full-size E-mini futures, the Micro contracts allow for smaller trades with more granular exposure.
A long position in the Micro E-Mini S&P 500 futures expiring in September (MESU2024) can be offset by a short position on 2 x Micro E-Mini Russell 2000 futures expiring in September (M2KU24). This position is highly margin-efficient as CME offers margin credit for this spread.
Hypothetical trade set up in summary requires entry at 2.69x, with a target at 2.78x coupled with stop loss at 2.6x.
The simulated payoffs are described below.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Copper's Short-Term Demand Woes, Long-Term GapsCopper is known as the electrifying metal.
Copper's warm glow and durable spirit, copper wires the heart of many a machine.
This reddish rarity has been super bullish in the recent past but less so now. That doesn't make it less investable. Just that nuanced investing approach is called for.
Outlook for copper has become mixed once more, with near term demand remaining downbeat given the continued slowdown in the Chinese property market and buildup in copper stock at SHFE. In the longer term, supply challenges risk pushing copper into a supply deficit with major copper miners Codelco and Anglo American facing supply challenges.
Given the mixed outlook, copper has continued to trade in a tighter price range over the past two months. Counter to conventional wisdom, a sideways market also presents opportunities for savvy investors. This paper describes the diverging outlook for the red metal and how investors can deploy a calendar spread using CME Micro Copper futures amid the diverging short and long-term outlook.
CHINESE COPPER INVENTORIES BUILD UP BECAUSE OF DEMAND SLOWDOWN
Chinese copper inventories have surged to one of their highest historical levels. Furthermore, inventories have been rising during the part of the year associated with drawdowns.
Source – Bloomberg
Lower demand is one of the factors behind the increasing inventories. The Chinese real estate sector is a major consumer of copper. With the ongoing slowdown in the sector, copper demand has been hit hard. Moreover, manufacturing sector in China is also experiencing a slowdown as China’s official manufacturing PMI dipped back into contraction in May.
Source: TradingEconomics
Combination of property market slowdown and lower industrial activity is hindering copper demand in the near term.
Furthermore, refined copper production among Chinese copper smelters has remained near all-time high levels over the past few months.
Source: Bloomberg
BULLISH SUPPLY SIDE AND INDUSTRIAL RECOVERY POSE UPSIDE TO COPPER
While near-term demand outlook may be downbeat, the medium- and long-term outlook for copper remain bullish. In the medium term, higher demand from the rapidly growing PV (photovoltaic) manufacturing and EV industry are absorbing some of the higher copper supply.
While both industries have slowed in recent months, analysts expect them to recover. At their current pace of copper consumption, these industries are more than compensating for the slowdown in the property market.
Source: Reuters
Additionally, major copper miners, Codelco and Anglo American are dealing with lower production.
Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, reported a 9.4% decline in production in the latest quarter compared to the previous year. This decline is attributed to falling ore grades, water restrictions, union protests, and logistical challenges exacerbated by the global situation, including the pandemic and geopolitical tensions. Anglo American also announced plans to reduce its copper production in 2024 as part of a strategy to cut costs and adapt to market conditions.
Lower output from major copper miners is a cause for concern given the rapid pace at which the new energy industries such as EVs and PVs are growing as well as the rapid growth in data centers which require substantial amount of copper. With inadequate supply, copper supplies face the risk of being pushed into a deficit.
ASSET MANAGERS HAVE REVERSED VIEW ON COPPER BULLISHNESS
While asset managers had built up substantial long positions during the sharp rally in copper which took price to an all-time high, they have started to close some of those long positions indicating that in the near-term price may have run ahead of themselves.
Source: CME QuikStrike
Over the past week, September CME options have seen a buildup in puts while calls have declined. The November contract has seen a similar trend. However, the March 2025 contract has seen a surge in call OI.
Source: CME QuikStrike
In a similar vein, CME copper future’s term structure has shifted from a steep contango to backwardation over the last three months. However, over the past week, this has started to shift once more as premium of later contracts over front month has started to rise leading to a steepening term structure.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
Given the diverging outlook for copper in the near-term and later term, investors can express a view on the shift in term structure using a calendar spread consisting of CME Micro Copper futures.
The below hypothetical trade setup consists of a long position in Micro Copper futures expiring in March 2025 (MHGH2025) and a short position in Micro Copper futures expiring in August 2024 (MHGQ2024).
Investors can also deploy the same trade setup using CME full-size copper futures. The CME full-size copper futures also provide a margin offset for the trade, a calendar spread with the same contract can be deployed with maintenance margin of USD 2,500 as of 24/June.
The below hypothetical trade setup provides a reward to risk ratio of 1.43x.
Entry: 1.011
Target: 1.055
Stop Loss: 0.98
Profit at Target: USD 492
Loss at Stop: USD 342
Reward to Risk: 1.43x
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Dangerous TradeThis trade has bad idea written all over it. Don’t try this at home. Not investment advice. etc. It has come to my attention that HO i.e.. NY Harbor heating oil which is a proxy petroleum distillate for diesel has gotten more expensive than gasoline in recent years many times and that it has done so in an aggressive manner quite a few of those times. This aggression is easily captured by charting the spread between HO and RB. RB is refinery gasoline. The formula for the spread is HO1! - RB1!. I’ve multiplied it by the contract multiplier of 42000 because each contract represents 42000 gallons and the price of each contract is per gallon. The number on the price axis therefore shows exactly how much money could have been made or lost with this spread. The trade idea is to go long HO and short RB once the spread closes positive twice ie. once diesel contracts start trading higher than gasoline contracts for more than one day within a 2-week period. The alternate trade idea is to just go long HO when the spread turns positive. Opex is on June 25th for both HO and RB July contracts so that’s something to be aware of. July contracts HON 2024 and RBN2024 are the contracts of interest until that options expiration date is reached. You’ll need approximately $20k margin to place this trade, as each contract is currently worth around $100k.
This trade is super dangerous because the spread is highly volatile. Don’t do it.
The reward/risk is 7.15. The “if nothing goes catastrophically wrong” risk is $4200 and the “congratulations, jack**s!” reward is $30,000.
MEDANTA - Compressing for a explosive move ?We can see Contraction in
Volatility
Volume
Spread
Also we see clustering of Closes. The spring is being compressed for a explosive move. Probability seems to favor a move on the upper side.
[EDU-Bite Sized Mini Series]Margin? Lots? Spread? What are they?Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Today we are going to cover terms such as Margin, Lot size, Spread and What are they.
Forex trading is a dynamic and potentially lucrative endeavor, but it comes with its own set of terminology and jargon that can be intimidating for beginners. Understanding these terms is crucial for aspiring traders to navigate the forex market effectively and make informed decisions.
Margin
One of the fundamental concepts in forex trading is margin, which refers to the amount of money required to open and maintain a trading position. Margin allows traders to control larger positions with a relatively small amount of capital, amplifying both potential profits and losses. It's important for traders to understand margin requirements and manage their leverage carefully to avoid excessive risk.
Lot Size
Another key concept is lots, which represent the size of a trading position in forex. Standard lots typically consist of 100,000 units of the base currency, while mini lots and micro lots represent 10,000 and 1,000 units, respectively. Lot size determines the potential profit or loss of a trade, with larger lots leading to greater fluctuations in account equity. If you are more comfortable with smaller lot size, you can even go on to nano lots in 100 unit of currency.
Spread
Spread is another term commonly used in forex trading, referring to the difference between the bid and ask prices of a currency pair. The bid price is the price at which traders can sell a currency pair, while the ask price is the price at which they can buy it. The spread represents the cost of executing a trade and can vary depending on market conditions and liquidity.
There are different types of spreads encountered in forex trading, including fixed spreads and variable spreads. Fixed spreads remain constant regardless of market conditions, providing traders with certainty about trading costs. On the other hand, variable spreads fluctuate in response to market volatility, widening during times of high activity and narrowing during periods of low activity.
Understanding these trading terms and jargon is essential for beginners to develop a solid foundation in forex trading. By mastering concepts such as margin, lots, spread, and different types of spreads, aspiring traders can make more informed decisions and effectively manage their risk in the dynamic and fast-paced world of forex.
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
-- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! --
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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SPX - Trendday Bull Put at lower Bouhmidi-BandSPX - Nice trend day in play. After defending previous day low we moved higher and breaking previous day high. Bull Puts on 1 + 1.5 sigma #BouhmidiBands working out fine today.
GoldGold is keeping a strong uptrend after breaking all time highs.
We may experience small retracements, but we know the overall momentum is to the buy-side
Semiconductor Bull Run: more steam ahead, but take cautionSome industries are notoriously cyclical. Semiconductor is a prime example. It swings to the extreme on both bullish and bearish sides. While the industry is in a bull run, investors can still participate in its rise but with caution.
The PHLX Semiconductor Index (“SOX”) is a modified market-cap weighted index. It is composed of semiconductor firms involved in the design, production, and distribution.
This paper dives into the factor’s driving SOX performance. It expounds on the cyclical nature of the industry, and its outlook fuelled by AI frenzy.
Finally, this note posits a hypothetical spread trade to gain from index outperformance relative to the broader market. The spread has been found to be more resilient that an outright position in SOX ETF or futures.
UBIQUITOUS AI
AI here. AI there. AI everywhere. AI by far is the single most driver of SOX outperformance. VANTAGE:NVIDIA , the AI darling commands ~10% of the SOX. Other AI majors include Broadcom (9.3% weight) and chip equipment maker ASML (4.5% weight).
The strongest profit harvester of AI boost is Nvidia. Expectedly, it has strongly outperformed SOX. AI-driven demand is evident in its financials. In 2023, its revenues rose by 125% YoY while Net income spiked by a jaw-dropping 580%.
Consistent earnings beat-and-raise has propelled its stock prices to more than 500% gain since the start of 2023. Outsized impact of Nvidia’s earnings is from AI data centre sales.
AI NOW, AND MORE IN THE FUTURE.
Nvidia is clearly benefiting in the near-term. Other majors are ramping up their AI offerings. Notable among them are NASDAQ:AMD (9.8% weight in SOX), VANTAGE:INTEL (6.75%), and $Qualcomm (7.5%).
These firms are yet to witness a major AI driven boost. 2023 data centre revenue for these firms remained underwhelming relative to AI winners such as Nvidia and Broadcom.
Broadcom’s AI driven demand for its networking solutions led to revenue of USD 2.3 billion in Q1 2024 which represents a four-fold increase YoY, reported MarketWatch. For 2024, they forecast AI-driven sales to reach USD 10 billion.
Data Source: TradingView
Meanwhile, Intel, AMD, and Qualcomm are in the process of launching their own AI offerings.
Qualcomm’s updated Snapdragon X Elite chips runs on ARM architecture. These offer enhanced AI capabilities, energy efficiency & performance compared to current platforms from Intel and AMD.
AMD updated its guidance for AI graphics offerings to USD 3.5 billion this year (v/s two billion previously). Although, below expectations, the raised outlook signals that sales ramp up is yet to materialize.
Intel is planning to launch AI PCs. Uniquely, in such PCs, AI inference will be localized on the user’s machines rather than on the cloud. Like Qualcomm, Intel’s AI PCs may revive its faltering PC sales.
NEXT TO AI, REBOUND IN MOBILE PHONE SALES IS HELPING THE INDUSTRY
Beyond AI driven demand, rebound in smartphone sales highlighted by Counterpoint Research has helped change the fortunes of this industry. Final quarter of last year marked the first quarter of annual growth after 7 straight quarters of declining sales volume as per their report .
Smartphone sales rebound benefits not just mobile chip makers like Qualcomm but also manufacturing service providers like TSMC.
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY IS NOTORIOUSLY CYCLICAL. FORTUNATELY, BULL CYCLE FOR NOW.
Semiconductor industry is prone to cyclicality. It is impacted by idiosyncratic consumption patterns. As a result, industry runs into large inventory buildups resulting in gluts for outdated products and shortages for new ones. Due to the rapid innovation rate, production sizing is hard. Even harder is for manufacturing output to adjust to shifting demand dynamics.
Cyclicality is on over-drive these few years. Pandemic disrupted chip production while demand remained robust. Subsequent shortage impacted not just semiconductor firms but also various other industries reliant on chips.
Manufacturers ramped up production to meet high demand. Soaring inflation drove central banks to raise interest rates. This caused consumer spending, especially on discretionary electronic items to nose-dive. This dynamic rapidly drove chip inventories from a severe shortage to demand crushing glut. What followed was painful mark-downs and profit crushing unit sale declines.
Cyclicality is ingrained in this industry due to its consumption, innovation, and growth cycles. As an example, consider VANTAGE:INTEL ’s revenue and profit. VANTAGE:INTEL derives majority of its revenue (54% in 2023) from its Client Computing division comprising of consumer-focused processors.
The impact of seasonality is also palpable in the net income of memory manufacturer $Micron.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
Robust financial performance is evident for some stocks within SOX. Other names within SOX are yet to reap the harvest of top-line and bottom-line growth from AI.
Notwithstanding, SOX continues to rise. It is up +100% relative to the start of 2023 when AI-driven hype came to the fore. Over exuberance and risks of a bubble are clear. A macro slowdown or industry-specific setback could drive a sharp reversal in SOX.
Instead of an outright position in SOX ETF or Futures, spreads between SOX and other equity indices shows that SOX/S&P 500 spread makes for a compelling hypothetical trade setup.
SOX/S&P 500 spread offers improved upside relative to SOX/Nasdaq-100 and SOX/XLK spread. It also offers resilient performance during sharp corrections (August to November 2023).
The SOX/S&P 500 spread is 36% higher since the start of 2023 and close to its highest level seen during 1995 and 2000. For reference, the SOX index is up 80% from 2023 and soaring far above previous all-time-highs. This implies that much of the recent run-up in SOX has come alongside a broader rally in the S&P 500. SOX outperformance is likely to continue while SOX tailwinds remain intact.
A hypothetical spread trade comprising of two lots of long CME E-Mini PHLX Semiconductor Sector Futures (“SOX Futures”) and short one lot of CME E-Mini S&P 500 Futures can offer a reward to risk ratio of 1.5x. Two contracts of SOX Futures are required to match the notional for one contract of E-Mini S&P 500 futures.
• Entry: 0.927
• Target: 0.97275
• Stop Loss: 0.897
• Profit at Target: USD 11,783 (+4.9%)
• Loss at Stop: - USD 7,893 (-3.3%)
• Reward to Risk: 1.5x
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
After Bitcoin’s Stunning Rally. What Next?Bitcoin is surging through expectations defying rally. Bitcoin (“BTC”) stands 22% higher over the last seven days. At its highest on 28 Feb 2024, BTC at USD 64k was 7% shy of its all-time-high.
Recent bitcoin (“BTC”) performance harkens back to the euphoric bull runs. Market metrics signal more steam in store.
This note discusses BTC’s recent rally and the road ahead. Anticipating short-term consolidation, this paper posits a short position in BTC/ETH ratio.
BITCOIN RALLY HAS MORE IN STORE
BTC is soaring fuelled by a range of tailwinds including strong demand from newly listed spot BTC ETFs, expected BTC halving, and a broader crypto market rally.
1. On-chain metrics do not signal significant profit taking (yet). Long-term holders have shown resilience despite significant gains in their holdings. Unrealized gains can be inferred by the market-value-to-realised-value (“MVRV”) indicator . MVRV assesses the market capitalization of BTC relative to its realized capitalization. It is determined by the price at which coins were last traded.
Current MVRV of 2.5x indicates that the current BTC prices are >2.5x the price at which coins last moved. Despite this, BTC supply that has remained unmoved in the past one year has remained surprisingly resilient. Supply not moved in more than a year is down 3.75% over the past three months while prices have rallied 53% and MVRV has remained >2x.
During previous cycles, particularly, when price peaked, MVRV was closer to three times, profit taking rates were high causing physical BTC to change hands rapidly. Current conditions do not match previous drawdowns suggesting potential for consolidation limiting further gains. Past performance does not necessarily imply future trends.
Current exchange inflows are near record highs. A substantial portion of these is from short-term holders rather than long-term holders.
Source: Glassnode
2. Continued spot buying as well as strong ETF demand. ETF demand shows no signs of slowing. Since putting our last paper on 26th Feb , an additional USD 2.3B of inflows have surged into spot ETFs. The pace of daily net flows to ETFs reached its highest level to date on 29th Feb.
Demand remains so solid that NASDAQ:IBIT became the fastest ETF to reach USD 10 billion in AUM, just 51 days after launch. Fidelity’s AMEX:FBTC is not far behind at USD 6.2 billion in AUM. GBTC outflows have continued but the pace of inflows has not reached those seen at the beginning.
In addition to fund flows, traded volumes have also remained elevated. BTC ETF volumes reached USD 11 billion on 28th Feb when prices soared above USD 60k for the first time. Volume on ETFs was particularly high when price rallied to its peak of USD 64k.
3. Funding rates and options smile . Funding rates on BTC perpetual futures signal elevated levels of speculative bullish demand. Funding rates are at levels observed during past bull runs.
Options markets are also pricing in further upside after last week. BTC options volatility curve of BTCH24 (March 2024) has shown a far higher forward skew compared to prior week. This is indicative of higher price for calls (bullishness) compared to puts (bearishness).
Source: QuikStrike
Call/Put skew over the past month shows that skew for calls have started to expand once more following sharp rally above USD 60k on 28th Feb.
Source: QuikStrike
BITCOIN NOW FACES RESISTANCE
Source: Coinglass
BTC market suffered large liquidations following sharp rally on 28th Feb. Liquidations were spread across both longs and shorts, but overall short liquidations were higher.
Across two more periods when price failed to surpass USD 63k definitively, long positions were liquidated once more. Still, since then liquidations have been much smaller than the peak.
Price remains rangebound after crossing USD 60k. It faced resistance crossing past USD 65k and maintained support above USD 60k.
BTC-ETH SPREAD LIKELY TO RALLY
BTC rallies typically precede ETH rallies as described before . Since that paper was published, the spread is merely 4% lower. The spread remains elevated relative to historical levels.
ETH has its unique tailwinds pushing it higher independent of BTC and the broader crypto market. Higher ETH burn due to greater on-chain activity is reducing ETH supply.
Moreover, decisions on spot ETH ETFs are expected by May 2024. While the final decision remains uncertain, the approaching deadline is likely to fuel bullish sentiments.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
BTC price is sharply higher and close to its previous all-time-high. Tailwinds for BTC remain intact. It faces near-term price consolidation following the sharp rally.
BTC price consolidation will favour ETH in BTC/ETH spread. ETH outperformed BTC during periods of consolidation in the past.
A spread position comprising of long Micro ETH futures and short Micro BTC futures allows investors to gain exposure to this trend with a 50% margin offset.
Micro ETH futures offer exposure to 0.1ETH and Micro BTC futures provide exposure to 0.1BTC. Thus, eighteen contracts of METH2024 are required to match notional for one contract of MBTH2024.
The below hypothetical trade setup offers a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.8x:
• Entry: 18.35
• Target: 16.87
• Stop Loss: 19.50
• Profit at Target: USD 5,255 (+8.1%)
• Loss at Stop: USD 4,025 (-6.2%)
• Reward to Risk: 1.3x
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
What is Spread in Trading | Everything You Need to Know
Hey traders,
It turned out that many newbie traders completely neglect spreads in their trading.
In this post, we will discuss what is the market spread and how it can occasionally spoil a seemingly good trade.
💱No matter what financial instrument we trade, in order to buy the asset we need to have a counterpart that is willing to sell it to us and vice versa, if we want to sell the asset, we need to have someone to sell it to.
The market provides a convenient exchange between buyers and sellers. The asset price is determined by a current supply and demand.
However, even the most liquid markets have two prices: bid and ask.
🙋♂️ Ask price represents the lowest price the market participants are willing to sell the asset to you, while 🙇♂️ bid price shows the highest price the market participants are willing to buy the asset from you.
Here is how bid and ask prices look like.
Bid and ask price are almost never equal. The difference between them is called the spread .
📈The spread size depends on liquidity of the market.
📍Higher liquidity implies bigger trading volumes and greater number of market participants, making it easier for them to make an exchange.
On such markets we see lower spreads.
📍From the other side, less liquid markets are categorized with low trading volumes, making it harder for the market participants to find a counterpart for the exchange.
On such market, spreads are usually high.
For example, current EURUSD price is 1.0249 / 1.0269.
Bid price is 1.0249 - you open short position on that price.
Ask price is 1.0269 - you open long position on that price.
The spread is 2 pips.
❗️Spreads must always be considered in a calculation of a risk to reward ratio for the trade. For scalpers and day traders, higher than usual spread may spoil a seemingly good trade.
Always check spreads before you open the trade.
Check how the spread is displayed in the trading terminal.
In 2020, for example, we saw unusually high spreads on Gold during UK/NY trading sessions. Spreads were so high that I did not manage to open a trade for a couple of days.
Not considering spreads in such a situation would cost you a lot of money.
Do you consider spread when you trade?🤓
Stock Market Logic Series #7Options Spreads strategy, let us talk about it.
If you want to buy high-probability spreads, there are specific places where you have the advantage.
And, there are other specific places where it is just pure gambling.
And, we don't gamble, EVER.
We take calculated risks, where the probability of success is much higher than the probability of loss.
--------------------------
In spread options, what matters the most is where the price will be at the expiration date.
WHY?
Because your profit can only be realized near the expiration date unless the price moves dramatically into your favor and far away from the spread strikes.
So, if what matters is where the price is at the expiration date, you want that in this future date, the price of the stock to be away from it, with HIGH PROBABILITY.
As you can see from the drawing on the chart,
the blue channel signifies the probability area of where the price should be in the future.
So if in the future, you are in the probable zone, as seen in the RED spreads, at the expiration date, the price could be below or above your strikes, and thus be successful or not successful, so your odds are more 50-50.
since the price can just stall there, and oscillate in this area, since it is the probable area where the price should be.
But if you look carefully at historical data, you can see that in the GREEN (MONEY ZONES), the price gets immediately rejected...
WITH THE HELP OF T-I-M-E
And when you buy spreads, you want TIME to be on your side...
So now you can easily see... how to make TIME which is a HUGE factor in spreads, on your side!
The trend is your friend... IF... you let it TIME to help you...
When you use options, and trading options in general you need to know which strategy fits which scenario, and where your HIGH probability trade waiting for you.
Just in case you don't know what options spreads are...
In simple words...
You choose 2 prices of the stock (aka strikes):
------$100
------$90
and you speculate that
if the price in a month will be above $100, you profit 1 point.
and if the price in a month will be below $90, you lose 1 point.
So it is a 1:1 risk-to-reward strategy.
So your advantage comes from knowing where are the pivot points.
But not all pivot points have the same advantage...
As I just showed you in this post...
Arbitrage of cryptocurrencies using indicators
Many have heard about P2P cryptocurrency arbitrage using bank cards and exchangers. With this, there are a number of problems and risks associated with blocking accounts, freezing money indefinitely or blocking accounts on the exchanges, since in order to effectively engage in this type of arbitration a trader must have not only his personal cards, but also drop cards (relatives, friends, etc.), and in the case of If there are any problems it becomes extremely difficult to solve them, as well as to explain to banks the origin of so many transfers from different persons.
The interexchange arbitration of cryptocurrencies is devoid of all these disadvantages, when transactions are made only on exchanges, and coins are sent only between exchanges and no third-party services, exchangers, P2P platforms and banks participate in the process of such arbitration.
How do I find and track such arbitration situations?
– situations when the exchange rate for a certain asset on one exchange is lower than on another. This will be helped by a set of indicators that track exchange rate differences for the selected asset on different exchanges. Using these indicators a trader can track how the size of the spread (exchange rate difference) has changed over time, what were the extreme values of this spread and how often it occurs at all.
Currently, there are three versions of this indicator.
1️⃣
The first version – the lightest in terms of the load on the hardware – allows you to track arbitrage situations for one selected trading pair. It provides a chart of the spread itself, the definition of extreme spread values, as well as a counter for the number of arbitrage situations in three time intervals.
2️⃣
The second version of the indicator has the same functionality on board, but for three trading pairs. That is, using one indicator you can track the spread on three assets at the same time.
3️⃣
The third version is essentially an arbitrage dashboard showing and tracking 12 trading pairs at the same time.
As the authors of these indicators and arbitrage screeners, we use a combination of the 2nd and 3rd versions of the indicator in our work. If this is too heavy for your system you can use the 1st and 3rd, or some one. In the large dashboard version (3rd), we track 12 of the most interesting assets at a time, and in the version with the spread chart (1st or 2nd), we are already looking at a more detailed picture of those of them that are of the greatest interest for further work.
What else?
In all the presented indicators, you can configure:
✅ threshold values at which additional tinting of the spread chart will occur for a better visual representation of the nature of the movement.
✅ threshold values at which the spread value in its extreme values will be displayed on the chart. Since the charts are located in TradingView price zones other than the actual spread values, this option allows you to quickly understand the real historical spread values that were in the past.
✅ threshold values at which alerts from the indicator will be received through the built-in TradingView alerts function. All you need to do is set the threshold value in the indicator, and then add an alert from the indicator in the TradingView alert settings. It is important to understand that the threshold value for all trading pairs selected in the indicator is the same, so alerts will be sent as soon as the spread value exceeds the threshold value for any of them.
✅ time intervals of the counter for the number of arbitration situations. There are three of them. That is, when analyzing a particular trading pair you can see how many times the spread value exceeded the threshold. For example, in the last 5 minutes, an hour and a day. This will give an understanding of the prospects of tracking the selected trading pair in the future.
All that remains to be done is to buy the coin at the price indicated in the Buy row on the corresponding exchange and sell it at the price from the Sell row on the second exchange.
24-01-26 EURUSD Long Entry - Trade Management 24-01-26
EURUSD Long Entry
Trade Management Price Levels
A. Move Stop loss to a take profit support level on a lower time frame
Price: 1.08450
Locked In Risk to reward:
+ 0.25 % Going to the weekend
* Left a bit of breathing room for spreads for sunday opening and to cover my risk if any large news happens this weekend *
Signal Price Info
Entry Price: 1.08350
Stop Loss Price : 1.07950/ 40 Pips
Take Profit: 1.08950/ 60 Pips
Risk To Reward : 1 for 1.5
Trade Grade: A-
Long Coinbase, Short BTC On Sell-The-News TriggerWhen traditional markets sense optimism, crypto markets go straight to the moon. Bitcoin (“BTC”) has been on a tear this year supported by hopes of spot BTC ETF launch, rising regulatory clarity, and monetary policy easing. When BTC sentiment turns bullish, it leads to sharp outperformance in digital asset-linked stocks as noted previously.
Coinbase is a top ranking performer. The crypto exchange stock is up a whopping 387% YTD outperforming BTC by almost 2.5x.
Outperformance during rallies is usually followed by sharper corrections during downturns. Buy the rumour and sell the news is common. In fact, it is more pronounced in crypto markets.
BTC trading at record prices for the year combined with bullish catalysts materializing soon, the risk of drawdown in prices remains high.
Digital asset linked stocks are likely to correct alongside BTC. But Coinbase is uniquely positioned to remain resilient. This paper posits a hypothetical trade set up with a long position in Coinbase and short position in BTC to position well into potential pull back in prices in the new year.
COINBASE’S “REGULATIONS FIRST” APPROACH HELPS BUT RISKS REMAIN
Coinbase adopts the strategy of regulation-focused expansion, giving it an upper hand in the otherwise largely unregulated digital asset industry.
That said, Coinbase faces its own raft of regulatory headwinds. In June 2023, the SEC sued Coinbase for operating as an Unregistered Securities Exchange, Broker, and Clearing Agency. Later in August, Coinbase filed a motion to dismiss the case on the basis that the cryptocurrencies listed on Coinbase do not qualify as securities.
Coinbase’s staking platform is another concern. Legal outcome remains uncertain. Regulatory overhang persists over Coinbase.
COINBASE HAS GAINED MARKET SHARE FROM CRISIS AT OTHER EXCHANGES
Coinbase has been holding up well when competing crypto exchanges have suffered collapse or punitive record regulatory fines. Consequently, it has been successful in swaying traders to its platform. News of Coinbase’s approval as a Virtual Asset Services Provider is just one of many global regulatory licenses the company has sought.
FTX collapse, regulatory action against Binance, and the shuttering of smaller exchanges like Bittrex has benefited Coinbase. It has gained BTC trading volume market share compared to last year (13.7% in 2023 v/s 5.7% in 2022), although it remains lower than its market share (18.1%) during the 2021 rally.
While Coinbase has taken volume share from Binance, both these crypto exchanges have lost share on BTC derivatives trading to CME Group. It is likely that Coinbase would lose out on some of the BTC trading volume to spot ETFs.
COINBASE IS THE CUSTODIAN FOR MOST OF THE PROPOSED SPOT BTC ETFs
While Coinbase may lose out on some of the trading volumes, it stands to benefit from the increased institutionalization of BTC.
The company has positioned itself to benefit from the institutional market as well. Coinbase Custody and Coinbase Prime are two of its offerings that stand to gain from spot ETF approval.
In Q3 2023, Coinbase derived 46% of its net revenue from transaction commissions (comprising of 95% from retail and 5% from institutions) and 54% from subscription and services revenue. This is a stark shift from Q3 2022 when 63% of its revenues came from transaction commissions. The shift towards services enables resilient growth from sustainable institutional sources.
Stablecoin revenue is the primary driver of services revenue for Coinbase. It has increased by 125% YoY. Stablecoin revenues represents earnings from stablecoin reserves linked to its partnership with Circle (USDC issuer).
While stablecoin revenues have driven growth in a high interest rate environment, Coinbase’s custodial revenue has lagged. Custodial income is up 9% YoY but 7% lower QoQ. Spot BTC approval with Coinbase as the custodian will help drive greater revenue resilience.
The following ETF’s which are up for approval imminently use Coinbase as their custody provider:
Source: Coindesk
Important to note that these agreements are not yet finalized and are subject to change. In fact, one of the SEC’s key concerns over approval has been the centralization of custody services with Coinbase. This recently caused Blackrock to amend the role of Coinbase in the proposed iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF. The goal of the amendments is to integrate refinements and improve the likelihood that the application is accepted by the SEC.
BITCOIN RALLY HAS OVERREACHED
A long position in BTC may be hard to justify given the massive price appreciation through 2023. BTC is up a mammoth 154%. Prices face risk of a sharp drawdown from profit taking.
Long-Term BTC holders have been accumulating their holdings all year. Many of these holders are now in profit. Nearly 90% of the total supply of BTC is in profit as per Glassnode.
While long-term holders have remained committed all year, realising these gains before a sell-the-news trigger will eventually lead to price pullback.
Source: Glassnode
THIS TIME, IT IS DIFFERENT FOR COINBASE
Coinbase performed poorly during the last Crypto drawdown. Back then, Coinbase was in dire straits. Losses looked precarious. Valuations were still roaring from its heady IPO levels. Now, both these metrics provide a reasonable entry.
Coinbase stock is still 50% lower compared to its level in Nov 2021 when BTC prices started collapsing.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
The hype in the run up to the approval of Spot BTC ETF is palpable. Downside risk prevails across BTC and Coinbase.
If buy-the-rumour & sell-the-news plays out, Coinbase is expected to remain resilient (relative to BTC) given larger market share and revenue diversification. Higher institutional income will also help bolster revenues along with increased trading volumes typically experienced during market shocks.
Investors can position to benefit from Coinbase’s relative resilience by opting for a long position in its shares hedged by a short position in CME Micro Bitcoin Futures expiring in January (MBTF2024). Each MBT contract provides exposure to 0.1 BTC (~USD 4,278). This requires 25 shares of Coinbase to balance the notional values on both legs.
The hypothetical trade set up would involve:
• Entry: 0.404% (USD 173.2 divided by USD 42,780)
• Target: 0.480%
• Stop Loss: 0.365%
• Profit at Target: USD 670
• Loss at Stop: USD 467
• Reward/Risk: 1.43x
Note: As of close of markets on 26th December 2023; Coinbase shares: USD 173.2 and MBTF2024: USD 42,780
MARKET DATA
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Is the Santa Claus Rally on Its Way Again?The lights, carols and the last FOMC of the year, you know the drill by now, Christmas is here soon!
As we head into the year's end, it's the perfect time to revisit an old idea we had last Christmas. In our piece last December titled “ Is the Santa Claus rally real? ” we explored the concept of the Santa Claus rally, discussing why and how a modified version might work.
To recap, last year we proposed examining the Santa Claus rally through a spread between the S&P500 and the Nikkei, rather than focusing solely on either the S&P or Nikkei alone. This approach was based on several reasons:
1) Holiday Impact: The Christmas holiday holds greater cultural importance in the US, likely resulting in more holiday observance in the US compared to Japan.
2) Diverging Monetary Policies: The Bank of Japan is set to meet next week, and while no change in the policy rate is expected, we're looking for any hints on the timing of an exit from negative interest rates. Conversely, the Federal Reserve has just signalled expectations of up to 75bps rate cuts in 2024, marking a policy shift. These differing policies could influence equities in their respective markets differently.
3) Difference in Accounting/Financial Years: Different accounting practices and book closure dates mean that institutional traders in each market will have varying flows as they prepare to close positions for the financial year.
4) January Effect Front-Running: Investors re-establishing positions after December's tax loss harvesting.
With policy directions now swapping, optimism for this strategy's success is higher this year. The Federal Reserve signalling an end to hikes, has resulted in the S&P500 surging closer to previous all-time highs.
Meanwhile, the USDJPY has collapsed from its high of 152, as views grow that the BOJ might end its negative interest rate policy sooner than expected, as alluded to by BOJ Governor Ueda.
This Christmas, we'll compare what happened last Christmas to see if a similar pattern emerges this year.
A review of last year's Christmas effect shows that the spread rose roughly 12% from mid-December to mid-February.
This result adds to the current streak of a 60%-win rate since 2013, now improving to 63% with a simple average return of about 33%.
Examining each index individually, we find that periods where the S&P 500’s RSI is above 75 and the Nikkei 225’s RSI is around 50 have generally preceded critical junctures where the S&P 500 continues to rise while the Nikkei remains rangebound or falls.
Additionally, observing the S&P500 and Nikkei 225 spread, we notice an ascending triangle pattern, with current price action breaking above. An ascending triangle is typically associated with bullish continuation.
Considering the broad macro factors, such as changing monetary policy stances aligning with the historical behavior of the Santa Claus rally, along with a bullish technical setup, we lean bullish on this spread. To express this bullish view, one could go long on the E-mini S&P 500 Futures and short on the Nikkei/USD Futures. At the current price levels, the notional value of one S&P 500 Futures contract is 4771*50 = 238550 and the notional for the Nikkei futures is 33010*5 = 165050, hence to match the notional we can trade 2 S&P 500 Futures contracts against 3 Nikkei Futures contract with the intent of holding the position from now till the middle of February.
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
Reference:
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www.fool.com
www.jstor.org
