INTERMARKET | Vix vs Skew & Ratio SpreadAnother chart to keep in mind given skew has decoupled from the VIX!
Spread
new oil ideathe further out in time we go the smaller the spread between front and back, so thinking the front to out 6 months should narrow so going to take a position on that idea
Energy spread going down New January contracts spread look to go down. Setup is not so clear, so I prefer to wait outside.
Spreader Pro Plot the spread of any two securities as -,+,/ or *
This enhanced version adds the 50 day sma of the spread as a gray plot
Another free and very useful indicator courtesy of Tarzan.
12/19 INTC Bear-Call Spread OpenedWe went short today with a bear call spread and less than a month until expiration. Our risk reward for our contracts was an even 1:1, with the breakeven at the 37.50 strike price. Our stop loss is at breakeven to manage our risk to the lowest point possible.
Educational Study: HOW TO TRADE "SPREAD"Educational Study: HOW TO TRADE "SPREAD"
SPREAD is a strategy in future market.
There are two spreads:
Inner Markret / Inter Market
Inner Market: Buy the GOLD FUTURE IN DEC and SELL GOLD FUTURE in Jan, or vice versa.
Inter Market: Buy the Gold and Sell Silver or Sell the gold and Buy the silver.
The beauty of this strategy is:
You are safer for risky events such as FOMC Meeting.
i.e. no matter what happens, gold and silver they will move together. and base on the location, I prefer to buy the gold and same time sell the silver for this FOMC meeting.
Successful $OAS Credit Spread TradeWe opened this position about 30 days ago and played the time premium after the huge up move in oil prices. Our initial risk was $200 for a total collection of $50.
Gold - Platinum Spread IndicatorHere is an indicator developed specifically for the gold - platinum spreaders out there.
Platinum is much rarer than both gold and silver — so rare, in fact, that all of the platinum ever mined could fit into your living room.
Still filling mine.
Peace.
Tarzan
BTCUSD bear call strategyThe bitcoin price broke recently the $750 resistance... but not for long.
Observing the price action, a potential short oportunity would be to wait for a lower top (lower than $753) to be formed.
Then one can start selling calls or call spreads at the $760 or $780 strike price.
Last time I checked at deribit.com (an options and futures exchange) the bids were $16.30 and $10.30 respectively for these options.
So the breakeven prices would be respectively $776.30 and $790.30 for a short call strategy.
NOTE:
I am just starting to trade some bitcoin options.
Seems to be a relatively new market, with not much liquidity; but one can still take good advantage of such oportunities.
Trade with care, always observe the risks and don't oversize your positions.
NOTE2:
Anyone would be so kind to act as a marker maker for bitcoin options?
That would be really awesome. =)
If I had more knowledge/experience (and money) I would certanly do it.
Well, we are still in an uptrend, technically speaking After the "healthy" correction, kc touched the 100 day MA around 153 as indicated previously as a potential target. Furthermore, we are hitting the lower end of the trend channel (blue).
I am looking for some support coming in here.
As vol softened during the sell off, threeways, selling put spread, buying call seem to be good long market, long vega strategies in my opinion.
MSFT Cutting Credit Spread Losses ShortThe name of the game in trading is knowing when to cut your losses short. Goldman Sachs upgraded MSFT in premarket trading today, which caused a gap up in the opening price. We're in the red about $105 from an originally $252 max credit trade. We're going to wait for market close before cutting our losses on the position. If the close looks to be as if it's going to be above our moving averages (highly likely), we're going to take the loss. If not, we'll hold the position through Monday to determine whether to continue playing the game and even potentially open another credit spread on the Bull Put side for some time premium
Risky But Trendy Bear Call Spread Entry on TSLATSLA began its downtrend awhile ago, so it's already a volatile and risky stock to jump in on at this stage in the game. However, with good trade management, we can do an ATM Bear Call Spread at the 185 price mark. Trail your stop to the Red line, because this could turn at any moment. 1 month until expiration.
Crude target of 52 almost achievedCrude is nearing the target of 52 after the breakout of the triangle after the OPEC meeting a couple weeks ago.
RSI and Stochastik are now very much overbought and even generated some sell signals. Also, as of now, there is a divergence in stochastik and RSI indicating the market is due for a correction sideways or lower. Without any fundamental news a correction is imminent. However this correction might well be sideways.
Overall physical trading volume has slowed according to my sources after the panic buying spree shortly following the OPEC meeting.
Overall we are in an uptrend, and I would expect we ll at least test the highs made earlier this year around 52.
Some light call spread selling might be good, but IMHO being conservative is the right play. No buying of downside options as that premium will just decay.
GOOGL BCS exp 7/15 nearing 15% returnGOOGL has just broke through 2 major supports and had nice gap down on 6/22. I can see GOOGL trading up a bit to retest but in will take the market some time to sort out what effect Europe thing will have on the market . Uncertainty= Fear = Selling
If you feel like directional trade I like GOOGL down to 618 (at least) enter on retest of the support
(
AUDCAD: Uptrend continuation tradeWe have a nice potential trade setting up in AUDCAD. The uptrend has been quite strong, and retesting this key level gives us good reason to reenter longs.
This week I'll post some of the trades I send to my signals clients, stay tuned for more.
Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com
If interested in my real time whatsapp alerts and swing trading newsletter, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance0.25% on such information.
NOK: Norwegian krone is a long against the yenWe have a nice pair opportunity (and perhaps a great *USD trade) in the NOK crosses. NOK shows excellent relative strength, and has a lot of catching up to do with the Yen, which makes it ideal to long NOKJPY or long NOKUSD and short JPYUSD, risking 1 weekly/monthly ATR per side.
The NOKUSD trade is to long at market or on dips, and risk a drop under today's open, if you're interested in taking it, targets on chart (upper Brexit Key level). See comments for the NOKJPY chart (my signals group clients arealready long for one day).
Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com
If interested in my real time whatsapp alerts and swing trading newsletter, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance0.25% on such information.
Long European / Short US EquitiesA Fund Manager Survey today showed that investors are net underweight European equities for the first time since pretty much the European debt crisis of 2012.
With positioning at 3 year bearish extremes and cash positions the highest since November 2001, fear of a new European crisis and a post-brexit fallout appear to be heavily discounted in the price of European equities relative to their global (and particularly US) peers.
Long European equities / Short US equities if the DAX / SPX ratio trades at 4.5 or below. This idea is intended to demonstrate the extreme pessimism surrounding European equities, and does not suggest expressing the view via a DAX / SPX spread directly. Consider country and sector allocations within this.
SPX500/USOIL: Spread is reaching critical massThis has happened right before the last two crashes, and when the spread closed, a bottom (and a great long opportunity) formed. Watch this closely, the writing is on the wall. I'm holding SPY shorts, as well as oil, for the time being, expecting considerable downside in the short term. I think the catalyst will be on Friday, after NFP solidifies the rate hike fears.
See related ideas for more information. Please leave your comments or inquiries below.
I'll be making a live presentation this Friday, before NFP. Be sure to attend, I'll publish the link in this publication's updates.
Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com
If interested in my real time whatsapp alerts and swing trading newsletter, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Looking for USDCHF + EURUSD Correlation Breakdown TradeUSDCHF has essentially been trading exactly off Euro news for a bit now and I think it wants to keep this trend going, regardless of strength/weakness of Swiss data coming out this week.
This presents an opportunity.
Look for Swiss data to move USDCHF out of correlation, play the retrace game back to where it "should" be given the price of EURUSD.
This is a pretty dicey trade, be careful and keep an eye on the price action in the ladders and get out if things seem to be breaking down for real. This correlation will exist until it doesn't so don't get caught in the shift.
CENX Broke 8.00 Price target 8.50 based on 1yr trendsIn both March and April of 2016, CENX has hit the 8.00 mark to later jump to 8.50 within 2 week's time. It is my estimate -based on these previous rallies and the upward momentum as of late that it will once again rally to this 8.50 price point. Be aware that I take this to be a short-term trade as within 1-2 week's time I expect it to fall at or below a 7.00 support price by August 31, 2016.
GBPUSD Weak as my grandmother. 1. Supply coming in: up bar wide spread with high-ultra high volume closing off the highs of the bar follow by a down bar that confirms this weakness (2).
3. No demand bar: up bar with average-wide spread closing off the highs with less volume than the previous 3 bars, this signal needs to be confirmed with a down bar.
4. Trap up move: down bar with super wide spread, clossing off the lows with high volume, may some demand enter in this bar, but you will know it if the next bar closes high.
5. Gotcha bar: down bar with ultra wide spread, closing at the lows or near the lows of the bar with ultra high volume, this bar confirms the weakness of the previous bar, and, confirm the weakness of the sequencial of 1 and 3 signals.
6. Stopping volume: up bar closin at the highs or near the highs with high-ultra high volume, this bar confirms that may there is some demand in the previous bar, but you need confirmation.
7. Supply coming in: down bar closing on the lows of the bar, with high volume. This bar says: if there is some demand in the previous bar, why i close at the lows? because the market is weak.
8-9. Test's: down bars with average-narrow spread closing at the lows-near the lows with volume less than the previous 5 bars. The second test is seeing after a gap so if it confirms, may we have some demand in the market. (The next bar is up but with low volume, so, the tests doesnt confirm).
10. Up-thrust. Down bar that is marked up at the beginning of the bar to close down, average-wide spread with average volume, this confirms the weakness of the failed test (9).
11. Up-thrust (my favorite in this chart). Down bar that is marked up at the beginning of the bar to close down, average-wide spread with average volume, this bar confirms that the market even in over-sold state, will not go up because there is weakness. This signal is seen in a zone of previous weakness (signals 5, 8-9, 10) so you can assume that the market will not go up until demand in form of test's or no supply-shake out take place.
12. Bottoms reversal. Down bar, ultra high-volume, wide spread closing at or near the lows followed by a up bar wide spread closing at or near the highs confirms demand in the previous bar (the down bar). This signal need confirmation (up bar with average-high volume) but how can see, the next bar is a narrow spread bar with volume less than the previous 5-6 bars.
13. Test. down bars with average-narrow spread closing at the lows-near the lows with volume less than the previous 2 bars.
14. Potentional climatic action or gotcha bar. Down bar with wide spread closing at the lows with ultra high volume. This bar take place and closes lower than all of the bar seen before it. So you can assume that if the next bar is down, this bar shows that smart money is selling.
To take a short trade: wait until the next bar closes, if this closes down (for the time of now, the bar looks like a up-thrust, that is a signal to go short) and it breaks the support line of the previous bar, you can scalp or trade in this timeframe to the short side.
I prefer to scalp the market when i see a up thrust, no demand, supply coming in after the breakout of the support line.
This methodology is purely VSA. Sorry for my bad english, im'not a native speaker.
