ULTA Iron Condor SpreadIV is pretty high on ULTA after the drop and its trending well, there are a few false breakouts and RSI is rising. Looks like a good play.
2x Iron condor spread 200/205/275/280
Credit collected as $144 deltas were 0.33 and 0.2 on the options sold
I plan to take my profit at 30% max credit since the IV isn't that high for this to be a 50% max credit trade and deltas are pretty close and low probability.
Max gain will be $90.
Max loss will be $288.
Spread
NGK2020-NGN2020 - Natural Gas SpreadNGK2020-NGN2020
Clear Breakout of the level of support on this seasonal spread between the two futures contracts of Natural Gas.
In the last 17 years this trade has ended at a profit in the seasonal window.
From the Backtest we get an RRR of 5.17 and then place our short order.
SPY Put SpreadSPY Put spread strategy.
There are many things going on within the market. Rate cut odds are high if there is a letdown with no rate cut on the 28th the market will belly flop.
If ISM numbers are even worse next month then it'll flop. If china and the tariff situation gets worse because GDP numbers were poor in china and they may sour relations due to the trade war it'll bellyflop. Now I'm not saying we're gonna crash that's absurd, all I'm saying is there will be some volatility or pullback.
SPY Puts NOV 29 exp. 299/294
Cost is $1.52 x 10
Max gain will be $1 or 1.5 on each put.
Max loss is $500 if I'm dead wrong and we end up at like 303 within a few weeks.
Double divergence on OBV and RSI, WEEKLY and Daily.
Looks decent.
trading follows the same rules we use for life. Real Life
Trading Philosophy - Watch out for that big truck in your lane!If you are driving down the road and a truck is coming straight at you, in your lane, do you stay in that lane or swerve across to the empty lane where you are not supposed to be? The rules are clear, you are not supposed to be over there. The system says don’t do it, but reality is an 18-wheeler coming toward you in your lane. Do we follow all the rules of safe driving, or do we adapt to the situation at hand? Survival is a function of adaptation. Reality rules. On the road, in the markets.
The first rule of life is to survive; the second rule is that all rules can be broken if that supports the first rule. Take this as your trading philosophy.
Day trading follows the same rules we use for life. Successful trading is the art of using knowledge (systems) at the right time. This means when it is time to use the system or rule, you check for an oncoming 18-wheeler. That is what thinking is all about. We do need systems of living and systems for trading. But it is not mandatory that you follow all systems exactly all the time (just 99% of the time!). The reason is that systems do not adapt to any new bits of reality. That is what our mind is for, to observe, to record, to note changes, and then to develop an optimum use of the system.
simpletradingrules.com
recap 13 oct 2019 spread1: Always Use a Trading Plan
2: Treat Trading Like a Business
3: Use Technology
4: Protect Your Trading Capital
5: Study the Markets
6: Risk Only What You Can Afford
7: Develop a Trading Methodology
8: Always Use a Stop Loss
9: Know When to Stop Trading
10: Keep Trading in Perspective
Recap 18.41 sunday 6 oct 2019Employing an ETF pairs strategy may be useful when there is a disconnect between assets that are usually highly correlated.
Sector, country, and index ETFs also provide opportunities for the pairs trader, usually involving going long on a strong ETF and short on a weaker one. It’s important to exit the trades when the assets realign or the trends of strong and weak assets reverse.
It would also be wise to set a loss limit on each trade, and realize that markets are dynamic; relationships that existed yesterday may not necessarily exist tomorrow.
Consider our S&P 500 and Dow Jones index example. These indexes are highly correlated and both are tradable via ETFs: the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY A) and the Dow Jones Industrial SPDR (DIA A-). When the two separate, they generally reconnect, although that can take days or months.
KEN2020-KEK2020 - Commodity Spread on Coffee FuturesKEN2020-KEK2020
Rising triangle in formation on this spread between two wheat futures contracts.
Statistically, in the previous 15 years of our seasonal window we have come to profit in 100% of cases with an average risk reward of 3:1.
With this strategy we started trading years ago, bringing us considerable profits that made us understand that operating in the financial markets was an incredible potential source of income if done with professionalism and discipline.
TGT Bull flag on weeklyTGT bull flag, may adhere to the pattern however it may sell off first in order to move higher.
Price was 2.18
EXP Oct 25
Spread is 110/116 6 points wide
Target is $191 profit/ $4.09 is option price at exit.
Exit price will be $163 which would be taken week of October 14-18 and cannot be done before then.
Perhaps this trade will flop but we'll see. It looks decent.
USDA's corn, soy stocks figures fall below expectations Instant View: USDA's corn, soy stocks figures fall below expectations
Stock Markets1 hour ago (Sep 30, 2019 01:41PM ET)
CHICAGO (Reuters) - The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Monday reported domestic corn stocks as of Sept. 1 at 2.114 billion bushels, below the range of expectations in a Reuters analyst poll.
The USDA reported Sept. 1 soybean stocks at 913 million bushels, also below the range of analyst expectations. The government revised its estimate of the 2018 U.S. soybean harvest to 4.428 billion bushels, down from 4.544 billion previously.
In a separate report on small grains, the USDA trimmed its estimate of U.S. 2019 all-wheat production to 1.962 billion bushels, from 1.980 billion previously. The latest figure was slightly below an average of trade expectations.
Chicago Board of Trade corn futures jumped to a seven-week high after the release of the reports while soybean futures extended gains and wheat futures also firmed.
Highlights:
* USDA stocks, wheat crop report summary
* USDA pegs U.S. soy stocks below expectations
* U.S. small grains summary report - USDA
* USDA quarterly grain stocks report
* Trade estimates for U.S. grain stocks
* Trade estimates for 2019 U.S. wheat crop
* Trade estimates of 2018 U.S. soy crop
COMMENTS:
* Jim Gerlach, president of A/C Trading:
"These were the biggest (quarterly stocks) misses in history and not by a little, by a lot. Last year's crops were over-stated ... The cash market has been telling you for a long time that we didn't have a 2.4 billion-bushel corn carry-out."
* Bill Lapp, president of Advanced Economic Solutions:
"It was certainly a sharper reduction than the trade thought in the 2018 (soybean) crop. We saw the USDA reduce the final crop by 116 million bushels. That was the largest revision to the crop we've seen on Sept. 1. The fact that they missed it last year does not imply that this year's is going to be a big shock as well."
* Jack Scoville, vice president with Price Futures Group:
"The USDA is telling you that they overestimated the crop last year as much as anything. But at the end of the day, 2.1 billion bushels of corn and 910 million bushels of soybeans is still a lot of corn and soybeans out there."
* Joe Vaclavik, president of Standard Grain:
"The soybeans, that was a big deal on the balance sheet. Corn stocks number, too, was well below estimates. It's an aggressive cut, when most people thought we could actually see the USDA come in above the market expectations. This really caught the trade off-guard."
* Ted Seifried, chief market strategist, Zaner Ag Hedge:
"As far as corn is concerned, it was a bullish (stocks) number. This is a bit of a game-changer for the new crop. We'll be sitting at a friendlier level for ending stocks than what we were looking at on the September WASDE, when we get the October report."
* Bob Utterback, president of Utterback Marketing:
"The USDA comes out with a report saying we have 900-plus million bushels of soybeans, and that's bullish to this market. It's a sign of where we're at: We've gotten so used to these massive numbers (that) they've lost their shock value."
* Terry Reilly, senior analyst, Futures International:
"We were surprised that USDA didn't make an adjustment in U.S. corn production for 2018 because stocks came in much below expectations. It indicates demand for corn for feed was much better than expected."
* Craig Turner, commodities broker, Daniels Trading:
"Corn was the big surprise today. It's not wildly bullish, but it's not as bearish as everyone was worried about ... USDA today is taking away the 2 million bushels or so of corn that they said they found in the March report ... That has the market really focused now on yield: Will the (2019) harvested acres come down, as we're all expecting, and will the corn yield come down, even just a bit?"
SBAC Put Spread$3.99 Option Cost EXP October 18, this is a rather expensive trade I normally wouldn't pay this much for an option my general rule is $1.3-1.6 for a 3 week option per $5 width but I'll go for it since I bought it while it was into the money.
250/240 Put Spread Target is $7 profit at sale which is $300 profit at target
Max loss is $300 if it reverses.
SPX500 | Short The market continues to move by the lower limits of the channels which is the support line for the price.
For the second day, bears can not go below this line.
Today, if we see a shift away from the level of 3003 and the price growth, it will mean that the blue channel continues to influence the price movement. In this case, increase in the direction of the resistance level of 3053, which is located on the upper wall of the green channel, is possible.
If we see the support failure to the level of 3003, the bears will get access to the lower limit of the green channel and the support level of 2938.
CLJ2020-CLZ2020 Crude Oil - Breakout on double resistance levelCLJ2020-CLZ2020
Very interesting this spread between the two Crude Oil Futures, in which a lower level was broken where the value was tested several times, and at the same time was broken the next level that was also tested several times in the past months.
We try to take the order with one of the many oscillations that occur on this type of trading and place the mental stop.