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Using TSLA/NVDA spread to find cluesIn yellow is the TSLA/NVDA spread or ratio, and here it shows the jump off the all time lows with the huge price spike post Musk vote. With spread charts you can gain clues on future price action based on the other ticker. For the continued TSLA bull case, we get a pull back in the ratio to form the right shoulder of the IHS and then continue upwards. In that case as long as NVDA continues to consolidate or trend up TSLA will remain bullish too (and outperform).
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by cc1
4
Where are stocks going?I am presenting the difference between SPX (top pane) and SPX/major safe heavens (middle pane; spread graph). The pane below portrays the correlation coefficient (CC) in rsi values between the main spread graph and traditional safe heavens. Skip to the last paragraph for my forecast speculation if you are familiar with advanced spread graphs! This graph aims to measure the true nominal & intrinsic value of the U.S.'s largest equity indices (Nasdaq and S&P 500) by pinning their value against historic prices of safer alternative investment instruments, to account for capital outflows to other assets (not just USD or other fiat). CC - peaks in correlation imply trend reversals, specifically indicating the beginning of capital outflow from safe heavens to equities (and vice versa). Combining this indicator with the RSI (white line) of the spread graph may suggest the potential direction of capital flows. Forecast: Bearish signs: break-out of the current interest rate trend (figure below), last decade's heavy use of Quantitative Easing (QE), wars, repetitive waves of Covid, new world order (progressive decline in the importance of western currencies and stock exchanges) Bullish signs: recent unexpected strength from bulls, successful monetary policies against inflation, persistent adaptation of green & sustainability functioning (in comparison to the world), overall extremely oversold technical indicators Figure 1: The CC of interest rates movements with safe heavens indicates a potential direction for equities in general, which matches with the main spread graph (all shown by arrow paths). These predictions align with the outcome of the spread graph's 2004 aggressive interest rate hikes. In case you would like to utilise the spread graph formula: SP:SPX*TVC:IXIC/(TVC:DXY*10000000000000/FRED:M2SL*NASDAQ:XAU*(SP:SPGSCI-NASDAQ:XAU)/10/(TVC:US10Y-TVC:US02Y+TVC:US30Y-TVC:US10Y+2)) otherwise, zoom out Thanks for your time!
SP:SPXShort
by Sanzhar_m
4
Nasdaq Daily Reversal — Arbitrage & Sectorial RotationAmidst a financial market strongly distorted by the thirst of control from the central banks & their monetary policy craze headed exclusively toward supporting inflating assets valuation, it's become more & more obvious prices no longer represent neither economic reality nor actual asset value (assuming they ever did). Therefore, in such a climate of financial & speculative assets hyperinflation, it's highly interesting not to be too directional, on major indexes as an exemple, and rather seek arbitrage trading between different sectors. Today i'm proposing a Daily Nasdaq reversal short, within the aforementioned framework of arbitrage, as a hedge-trade against the Dow Jones, Tech vs Industrials . Let's have a look at the Nasdaq/Dow Daily spread-chart FX:NAS100/FX:US30*100 (the *100 in the mnemonic was added to obtain more detailed «Volume profile» data / rows) : As you can see, the spread between the two sectors has been ranging since summer of last year, showcasing clear arbitrage strategies being put in place between the two assets / indexes. Strategies that were most likely triggered as a result of widespread doubt amongst market professionals about global assets' valuation and their direction. Now addressing the technicalities of our spread, it should be noted that, on that specific timeframe, we've already broken the range' support during early of March. The spread reaching its upper pitchfork/canal boundary in conjunction with a 76,4% Fibonacci retracement right after breaking its range' support, points out toward a pretty good timing to start taking action on the components of spread itself. We can also witness a few enticing overload signals on the momentum/sinewave indicators, but signals on spread-charts are never to be taken too seriously as they're not extremely reliable. To end with the spread-chart and contextualise a little bit more in-depth, this year long recent hedge trade on the two major U.S indexes becomes even more obvious when you switch to the Monthly timeframe, just to realize that NDX/DOW is a monthly range as well. You can also easily notice that the Daily hedge-trade strategies that have been put in place since summer 2020 coincidently happened to be taken on prices very close from the 2000 highs of the spread-chart (the year 2000 which happened to mark the end of the .com tech crazed bubble). Hesitation on a monthly top, heh. So we've got short term timing & technical elements aligning with the broader decade long context, good. Now let's take a look specifically at our Nasdaq chart to outline more relevant technical elements that are going to lead to our trade. Starting with the context : on the Monthly timeframe we can see that our beloved tech sector is no less than a bubble : a parabolic structure perpetually accelerating with increasingly ascending support trendlines, and not materializing any kind of consolidation whatsoever. It should also be mentioned that we havent finished a Monthly momentum cycle since 2012 (2010 for the Quarterly timeframe). Bubble meaning no cycle, consequently meaning a market structure' maturity excruciatingly harder to discern — that is besides the volatility burst & the chaotic range that precedes the final excess leading to the market top. A context to handle with care, to say the least. Now that we know the broader direction the market is currently taking, we can start to look at our timeframe of reference, the Daily one : Here are the different technical elements i could outline from that chart : Prices Reaching the upper boundary of both the Schiff Pitchfork & the Regular Trend Canal 88.6% Fibonacci extension hit & showing short term price slowdown 138.2% Fibonacci retracement from the last downward consolidating move, supposing a potential running or expanded flat Signals Cycle Alignement of both Sinewave & Momentum Momentum about to print an overload signal (will confirm or not depending on the next Daily closes) Momentum pointing at a possible triple divergence Would appreciate an engulfing bearish candle close on the Daily timeframe within the next few days Risk Management The invalidation on this Nasdaq Short costs 3%, therefore i won't expose more than half of my capital on this position, that way i'm risking no more than 1.5% of my capital as a speculative loss on this trade (and even less with the Dow long part incoming). Validation levels are showcased on the chart based on «footprints» (historical low volume areas found using volume profile), lower boundaries of channels / pitchfork and Fibonacci retracements. TP 2 means at most a total of 50% profits taken on the original position. The rest will be held for lower targets on the Weekly / Monthly timeframes. I'll further update this analysis as soon as the Dow Jones reaches its next supports areas (if it does so), especially since those same areas will allow me to start executing the opposite part of this hedge-trade (the long one). But that's it for now Hope this idea will inspire some of you ! Go easy on leverage and don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;) Kindly, J.M.K
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by John_Maynard_Keynes
1