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Nifty / Small Cap Relative StrengthThe honeymoon period of Small Cap sector might be coming to an end now at the PRZ of a Bullish Harmonic AB=CD and Ichimoku Kumo support, 1.60 approx could see a halt in the outperformance of Small Caps over Large Caps that have been on a sideways to downward correction since FEB 2021. However, if it manages to breach further below then the Small Cap party of upper circuits will continue Relative Strength does not mean Small Caps will stop rallying, it just signifies that upon reversal confirmation Large caps will start doing better than Small caps.
NSE:NIFTY
by Dinesh_C_Nagpal
Follow-up analysis $HD positionNYSE:HD One thing I do different about this specific option strategy is the trade analysis that I do for trade management. This would determine if I exit early at half of the debit or see it to expiration and risk full loss. Initial trade set up triggered entry 04/21 Debit Put Spread $300/325 14 May 21 expiry. Price needs to be below $325 at expiration for this trade. Since Price is showing weakness and overextension. Holding this spread 'til expiration.
NYSE:HDShort
by EllaineEscueta
$NET Earnings Play + How to Trade Earnings In General(Note that I am writing this idea about an hour after market open when $NET is trading around $90) Thought I would publish a quick idea on how I like to select and play earnings on stocks. $NET looks like a decent candidate as an example and actual trade. Earnings reports represent an opportunity for a BIG move, but we just don't know WHICH direction. Many newer options traders like to buy single-legged options (calls or puts) at very near expirations to express a hunch or opinion on direction. The options appear cheap with HUGE payouts if you hit a home run. But those are overwhelmingly losing trades, even when you get the direction right. Why? Implied Volatility (IV) gets absolutely JUICED for earnings plays. For example, suppose I am bullish on $NET earnings and want to buy a call- Buying the ATM $90 Call for 2/12 expiration means $NET needs to move up to $95 just to breakeven, and about $100 to give you about a 1:1 reward to your risk ($520 profit to your $520 debit paid) Buying an OTM $100 Call for 2/12: breakeven is at $102, $104 is 1:1 R:R If you think going out to the next further expiration is better, it's not. The 2/19 expiry on those same strikes produces similar price points to breakeven and 1:1 profit ATM Call for next week's expiration OTM Call for next week's expiration To some that trade might not look that bad, but what is not shown on these charts (generated from theoretical calculators) is the impact of IV Crush . If we close today at $90, ER happens after today's close, and we open tomorrow around, say, $95, and close around $93, those calls are going to lose most of their value . The reason for this is people paid(really, over-paying) for a big move that did not seem to come. Most earnings have their biggest moves AT earnings, not a week after. The momentum is largely lost. Impact of Implied Volatility, IV Curve, Implied vs Actual moves for previous earnings Unless you have a crystal ball for direction, you generally want to buy or sell volatility based upon the expected magnitude of event What this means is if currently the IV is sky-high up front and absolutely plummets in the months afterwards, you look to see what previous moves did vs what their implied moves did. I look at MarketChameleon.com for this. If the actual move of the last 12 earnings as well as the average move is about equal to or less than the implied move was, generally people are over-estimating the magnitude of the move The IV Curve/term structure gives you an excellent opportunity to buy or sell volatility on one term relative to another. If IV has been climbing and looks like its cooling off, you sell it. If IV looks like its been calm and is starting to climb up, you buy it. This is explained best buy buying a straddle at one term and selling a straddle at another. More common term structure. Implied Volatility is relaxed but expected to rise -sometime- in the future. Term structure you get with most earnings events or when Reddit wallstreetbets gets obsessed with a stock. What are 'IV30', 'IV60', etc? Options are instruments of TIME Because they are instruments of time, we are always looking at the price of something relative to the future, and the future is generally different Options Expirations (OPEX) dates, usually the monthlies. For stocks they are very interested in OPEX dates occurring around special events like an earnings report, dividend, or some kind of conference, results of a trial, economic event, and etc. Generally options markets are looking ahead at intervals of about 30 days. You see this with CBOE's $VIX index, which tries its best to reflect the outlook 30 days from now (Per CBOE FAQ on VIX: "Only SPX options with more than 23 days and less than 37 days to the Friday SPX expiration are used to calculate the VIX Index. These SPX options are then weighted to yield a constant maturity 30-day measure of the expected volatility of the S&P 500 Index.") Here's how I am playing Cloudflare $NET earnings- Sell a straddle for next Friday (surprise surprise). Tomorrow's expiration is absolutely jacked on IV juice, but it is a little TOO near for my liking. What if NET moves up to close at $110 tomorrow, but if I had just one more week it could've settled closer to $100 and made me a profit? Tomorrow's expiration IV is 170, which is about 40% more than next Friday's 120, and will surely get crushed extremely hard if it doesn't produce a good move, but I get 30% more premium selling next week's expiration (2/19), and that one will also plunge if there's a non-move We buy a straddle at a further out expiration, one where the IV is far lower The idea here is that we are mostly playing Theta/time. The hope is that if the stock doesn't move much the value of the near-term straddle sold goes down significantly, while the far-term we bought goes down, but not as harshly. There's also potential for the IV curve to balance out so that the near-term lowers a bit while the far-term rises a bit, giving value to our long straddle while leeching the near-term straddle we sold Here are some guidelines playing with Double Diagonals/Calendars- Set a limit buy on the option you sold to buy it at $0.05, Good Till Closed. If you're short on an option and its basically lost all that value, take your risk off the board for a measly 20-something dollars. Who knows if you celebrate early and then a massive move happens, you could have just eliminated that risk potential (Remember to close your long one as well, or replace the short you closed with a new one) I like to close the spread before expiry and not allow an ITM option to be exercised. That adds another dimension of complications most are not ready to deal with Consider rollouts. If you sell the 2/12 or 2/19 and we get a nothingburger, most of the crush has probably happened by tomorrow's open. You buyback (Buy to Close) your $90 call and put and now sell (Sell to Open) a later expiration date, like the 2/26 or even the 3/19 (if you did a diagonal, this would make it an Iron Butterfly, if you did not you cannot sell the $90s since you are already long, you'll have to roll those out) In the rollout scenario, it is sometimes pretty ideal to have your long straddle be at a much further out date because you can rollout your short straddle several times I find that generally you are much more protected on big moves to the upside, less so to ones on the downside. This is related to a number of things like Implied Volatility, Skew, etc, but it's not a bad idea to place your straddle a bit lower rather than higher. Look at your Theoretical Options Calculator and see what is the most likely scenario Good luck and happy trading. Please let me know if you have any questions, comments, etc. I am always learning and am susceptible to writing something incorrectly or even having a misunderstanding of things :)
NYSE:NET
by chrism665
11
10 million Intermarket Spreads index ETF commodities etc / Hello New strategy spread. I made my initial deposit to 10 M. I was losing big money on 1 M and i thought on a scale i was trading i should add up some money on the deposit. For 10 M i trade 5000 SP and 500 DOW. For 1 M capital it should be 500 and 50 respectively and so on. It is safer. SP vs DOW. I put orders every 10 points in sp and evry 100 points in dow. lets see.. Update ONLY - Intermarket Spreads index ETF commodities etc / I Believe the sp vs DOW spread is the most profitbale for me at the moment. I will stick with it. 10 million Intermarket Spreads index ETF commodities etc / Thank you. Opening balance 25 june 2020 13 736 029 $ Closing balance 10 july 2020 13 790 860$ increase of +/- 54.000 $ I traded the EURHKD vs CHFHKD + AUDUSD vs NZDUSD . It has been less volatile than indices IMHO. I will trade bigger size and i stress less. THank you ! MAX Drawdown -10% adjusted today. Mar/2020 11.82% Feb/2020 31.94% Jan/2020 4.51% Dec/2019 1.23% Nov/2019 5.46% The way i get my numbers of unit is DOW / SP500 = 28622/3265 = 8.77 but i am biased SP. In fact i should be 9 SP and 1 DOW. BE patient is IMPORTANT. This result took me a few days. Please remember. I always spread..... Except when i am not 8-) My point is , in the SPY vs DIA for example i spread all the time and i add until it is profitable. I add once or twice per day, no more. I trade mostly SPY vs DIA vs QQQ WHEAT vs CORN others when opportunities arise. That s it. The simpler the better. Have a good week. Patience is the key IMHO. All in light size. I will trade more spread in ETF PAIRS. Employing an ETF pairs strategy may be useful when there is a disconnect between assets that are usually highly correlated. Sector, country, and index ETFs also provide opportunities for the pairs trader, usually involving going long on a strong ETF and short on a weaker one. It’s important to exit the trades when the assets realign or the trends of strong and weak assets reverse. It would also be wise to set a loss limit on each trade, and realize that markets are dynamic; relationships that existed yesterday may not necessarily exist tomorrow. MRCI encourages all traders to employ appropriate money-management techniques at all times. www.mrci.com This is a site above i use for season trading. Patience is the key. It is important to trade well, not just trade ! Bear in mind i can not trade futures on this platform as i use the minimum service. I recommend the book from MRCI. .LOG RECAP - 15:13 15-Nov-19 I spread-trade mostly. The guy who spreads and makes a little every day is the one who walks away with the big money.” –A veteran trader, quoted in Futures Trade to Trade Well- Not Make Money. www.nasdaq.com Spread positions tend to be less risky than outright long (buy) or short (sell) positions. But not all the time. Always remember, it is not 100% full proof. Mostly WHEAT versus CORN. But others as well. This is a demo. Please read below for understanding. Money managment is important as well as patience etc... I follow more or less the spread strategy with the seasonability strategy - Keith Schap – The Complete Guide to Spread Trading The guy who spreads and makes a little every day is the one who walks away with the big money.” –A veteran trader, quoted in Futures and Toepke, Jerry. "Moore Research Center, Inc." Why Seasonals Work. McGraw-Hill, 14 May 2009. Web. 05 May 2016. Every time i enter a trade in WHEAT i enter a trade in CORN with the same amount of units. Trade accordingly your account size. The trades can last hours, days or weeks. Patience and discipline and money management. I will not lose more than 65% of the equity. I can trade every hour or other. Intercommodity Spread The Intercommodity Spread is a spread between two different commodities, but in the same delivery month. Often this spread will set-up according to seasonality or occasionally a harvest supply/demand picture. The Corn-Wheat Spread The Intercommodity Spread is our focus for today! Specifically, we will analyze the merits of the Corn-Wheat Spread going into the 1st and 2nd quarter of 2011. This is a trade that I have monitored since the 80’s. I believe that it was first notable in the mid 60’s. The beauty of taking a classic trade and reviewing the trends and history of the trade saves time in research and previous observations may even save money on potential variances to watch for. In this particular spread, we note that July may be a strong month for corn as the weather conditions, plantings acreage, export numbers may still be unknown. The crop is still vulnerable until toward harvest which is in the fall. On the other hand, the harvest for the soft red winter wheat may be in July, allowing the market to regard the saturation of a harvested crop. One may look at the months; March, July and September contracts for this particular spread trade and select another, but this is the anatomy of the spread, not to be confused with a trade recommendation. As a matter of fact, this spread may be reversed at another time of the year. June may be a time frame to review the Wheat-Corn Spread. These grains are both feed product and may also be affected by livestock production trends, global supply-demand figures, weather conditions and basis for the farmer. The wheat is typically a heavier protein cereal, while corn does not vary to the extreme. In modern times patents on the seeds of varied grains has become big business. The USDA regulates the delivery, grades and contract size regular for delivery. The seeds and fertilizers must also endure disease and pests. There are Government Subsidy programs as well in some cases to control the crops being planted. In recent times, Africa has been know to lease land for crops to fulfill some of their required grain inventories in countries such as China. Technically, it is good to pull up a spread chart to monitor the merit of the potential move. One may select their Indicators to best confirm an entry. There is no audio in my videos. This is a demo ac. I have a real ac with oanda. .LOG Trading Commodity Seasonal Patterns There is no such thing as a sure thing, but ignoring this chronological behaviour of seasonality and the tools readily available to help predict these patterns is a mistake for futures traders. A knowledgeable broker who is MRCI equipped and spread savvy is a keen idea if you want to get into trading seasonal commodities. The more tools you utilize within using the approach of seasonality trading can help you in whatever commodity or commodities you wish to trade. Trading Commodity Seasonal Patterns Every calendar year there are different seasons. It is how we plan our lives. Weather is the first to come to mind, but there are holidays, sports, shopping and many more that help break up the monotony of our day to day patterns. The commodities market is no different. Just as you use a calendar to plan and differentiate Thanksgiving from Opening Day in baseball, you can use the same calendar to blueprint possibly when wheat futures will be high and copper prices low. Traders can use these seasonal patterns to their advantage because it allows a certain degree of predictability of future price movements, rather than being bombarded by an endless stream of often contradictory market noise. Now of course there are other factors too numerous to list that can affect the futures markets, but certain conditions and events reoccur at annual intervals and help traders anticipate where the market is headed. Seasonality Of Futures Although not 100% accurate-as any weatherman will tell you-weather is, in fact, the chief contributor to seasonal futures trading. The annual cycle from warm to cold weather and then back again affects all the agricultural commodity markets as their supply and demand coincides with the planting and harvesting seasons. However, the annual weather pattern can stretch its power to all the commodities. For example, demand for heating oil typically rises as cold weather approaches but subsides as inventory is filled and decreases even more as the summer months get closer. The calendar not only gives us climate related seasons, but also the annual passing of important dates that then creates 'seasons' of its own. The due date for filing U.S. income taxes is every April 15th. Monetary liquidity may decline as taxes are paid, but rise as the Federal Reserve recirculates funds. These annual cycles in supply and demand give rise to the seasonal price phenomena or what we would simply call seasonality. This annual pattern of changing conditions may cause a more or less well-defined annual pattern of price responses. Seasonality, then, may be defined as a market's natural rhythm-an established tendency for prices to move in the same direction around similar time most years. In a market strongly influenced by annual cycles, seasonal price movement tendencies may become more than just an effect of seasonal cause. It can become so ingrained as to become nearly a fundamental condition in its own right - almost as if the market had a memory of its own. Why? Once consumers, producers, traders, and the like fall into a particular pattern, they tend to rely on it-almost to the point of becoming dependent on it. This dependency can be tricky as such trading patterns do not repeat without fail. The seasonal methodology, as does any other, has its own inherent limitations. For instance , some summers are hotter and dryer than others thus leading to less of a supply than what was predicted for the fall. Even trends of exceptional seasonal consistency are best traded with common sense and caution. A basic familiarity with current seasonality fundamentals and a simple technical indicator will help enhance selectivity and timing of entries and exits. Seasonal Futures Spread Trading The Moore Research Center (MRCI) is one of the leaders in assessing these seasons and has evaluated up to 55 years of history against the market behaviour of current contracts. This research has been used, and still is, by major exchanges like the CME, CBOT and others including hedge funds and traders. They are members and regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA). MRCI presents a list of fifteen seasonal futures spread trading ideas each month, covering all commodity sectors: grains, energies, currencies, livestock, etc. Every spread they present has shown at least an 80 percent historic reliability over 15 years (when available) and Moore Research provides detailed statistical data for every year the individual spread has been tracked. Their spread trading cycles last anywhere from a week or so up to around 3 months. Most of them average about 4-6 weeks. Each spread has a pre-determined entry and exit date along with a pre-calculated point at which the spread would be exited if it became a loser. Every spread is updated each day on their web site from the day it goes on to the day it comes off and their results are recorded. MRCI uses the daily settlement prices of the market as the values to label their entry and exit prices. There is no such thing as a sure thing, but ignoring this chronological behaviour of seasonality and the tools readily available to help predict these patterns is a mistake for futures traders. A knowledgeable broker who is MRCI equipped and spread savvy is a keen idea if you want to get into trading seasonal commodities. The more tools you utilize within using the approach of seasonality trading can help you in whatever commodity or commodities you wish to trade. Toepke, Jerry. "Moore Research Center, Inc." Why Seasonals Work. McGraw-Hill, 14 May 2009. Web. 05 May 2016. Disclaimers: * Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in futures trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition. ** SEASONAL TENDENCIES ARE A COMPOSITE OF SOME OF THE MORE CONSISTENT COMMODITY FUTURES SEASONALS THAT HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 15 YEARS. THERE ARE USUALLY UNDERLYING FUNDAMENTAL CIRCUMSTANCES THAT OCCUR ANNUALLY THAT TEND TO CAUSE THE FUTURES MARKETS TO REACT IN A SIMILAR DIRECTIONAL MANNER DURING A CERTAIN CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE YEAR. EVEN IF A SEASONAL TENDENCY OCCURS IN THE FUTURE, IT MAY NOT RESULT IN A PROFITABLE TRANSACTION AS FEES, AND THE TIMING OF THE ENTRY AND LIQUIDATION MAY IMPACT ON THE RESULTS. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT HAS IN THE PAST OR WILL IN THE FUTURE ACHIEVE PROFITS UTILIZING THESE STRATEGIES. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT PRICE PATTERNS WILL RECUR IN THE FUTURE. The inverse correlation GOLD vs OIL 08:10 05-Sep-19 Gold can be used for speculation but is preferred as a safe haven. Crude, on the other hand, can be used as a store of value but is preferred as a speculative play. This combination makes these two assets work great together as mutual hedges. Gold helps offset the risk of higher uncertainty, while oil can take advantage of market moves. Broadly speaking, you could say that gold and petroleum are inversely correlated. There are a couple of major caveats to add to that notion. The first is that more nuance allows for more sophisticated trading. The second is that there is more to oil prices than just the market. born2invest.com Understanding Intermarket Spreads: Platinum and Gold www.cmegroup.com Basics of Futures Spread Trading March 5, 2011 by Craig Turner www.danielstrading.com .LOG Forex basket Trade the NEWS : For most new traders, the biggest challenge is getting a profitable strategy that works for the long term. Usually, trend-following systems are favored because they tend to have a very good risk-to-reward ratio. Trading the currency market is essentially a numbers game, basically traders look for strategies or systems that have a positive overall yield. The profit factor of any strategy is also very essential, because a profitable strategy should make more money or pips, than it loses. After some extensive research, I have discovered one of such systems. This strategy is built on one of the oldest trading adages around; “cut your losses early and let your profits run” and “the trend is your friend”. Basket trading involves opening a series of correlated or uncorrelated trades, and after an adequate amount of time, closing the trades when the overall sum of the trades is positive i.e. when the net value of all open trades is positive or close to our targeted profit-value. It is not 100% guarantee. The Trading setup The truth behind the Forex market is that currencies trend. This means that currencies have a tendency to keep gaining or diminishing over a long period of time. There are a lot of concepts about trading cycles and swings, but in reality if we were to zoom out of our charts we would notice a very obvious and unmistakable trend direction. Basket trading involves gauging the potential strength or weakness of a pair, and placing several trades that align with that analysis. Key Reports/Factors that Move FX Markets Any world events /news Financial crises and elections create financial uncertainty and, in turn, impact value of a country’s currency Central Bank monetary policy announcements Will affect size/growth rate of a nation’s money supply and, in turn, interest rates; can include key interest rate changes, buying/selling government bonds, reserve requirements changes FOMC (Federal Open Markets Committee) Meets 8 times a year to set U.S. monetary policy and key interest rate changes; impacts value of U.S. dollar, world’s reserve currency U.S. Dollar Index Measures the value of U.S. dollar relative to a basket of currencies for the U.S.’s most significant trading partners.
U
by DORMAN5
ZSH2021-ZSF2021There is a good opportunity in Soybeans complex. However this bear spread is a bit more aggresive as the price could go as low as -50. Therefore this is not suitable for position trade, but to put SL to the market to minimalize your loss in case of another fall. But there is a good potential with reduced risk. 4:1 The probability of the succes is on our side, if nothing really suprising happen in USA/China trade war. Because China is the biggest buyer of US soybeans to feed their pigs mostly. Soybeans is as almost commodities the market with strong contango. In other words the further contracts should be more pricey, because there are costs for storage, insurance, risk etc. Negative prices cannot last long in the mid/long term as describe above. The spread just need time before supply and demand find their equal value for both sides.
CBOT:ZSH2021
by Martomin
AAPL to $130 or $110Labor days future action seems pretty bullish with world markets very green. AAPL had a hammer candle followed by an engulfing green candle (bullish), followed by a 3 bar play with a continuation green candle (bullish). We did however hit some resistance. If this trend continues, we should very quickly test $130 with a short squeeze, and possibly back to ATH. On the downside, if shorts come back into play, we will probably see $110. Hedge yourself on those calls.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by ncontelmo
1
I SPY The First Extreme Turn Sell Signal Since the March LowsWe can keep this one pretty simple. It's day #2 with an Extreme Turn sell/short on the SPY daily timeframe. The prior day was the first sell signal in the entire move since the March lows. There is absolutely nothing bearish looking in this chart. That said, we recall our adage at TDG - Markets' always look the most bullish at the tops. We're expressing the signal with a $8 wide Bear Put - SPY SEP 340/332. As always, our risk is 50% of the premium paid so we're looking at risking about .60 to make $6+ Submitted Order Type Limit @ 1.15 Debit Fill Details • Bought 15 SPY 09/18/20 Put 340.00 @ 3.03 Filled at: Aug 28, 2020 3:08:10 PM EDT • Sold 15 SPY 09/18/20 Put 332.00 @ 1.88 Filled at: Aug 28, 2020 3:08:10 PM EDT We'll see if our patience pays? Trade Like You Mean It!
AMEX:SPYShort
by TDGonTView
2
Some unpopular commodity spreadsCotton & Cocoa have daily volumes of about 500 million usd or more. The rest (except maybe xpt & xpd I have no idea about) have volumes of 1 or several billions. They are unpopular with alot of funds & retail because they (retail & fund clients I guess) cannot really day trade those, too expensive, and they cannot buy & hold for growth those. They are monthly or quarterly contracts, there is no growth like with stocks or gold. But this is real speculation, and what markets were created for thousands of years ago. There is a real need for us to absorb volatility/risks and there is an associated reward. The costs range between 5 to 10% of ATR which is acceptable if one picks the high probability moves in strong markets (not sideways) and goes for big moves, not some 15 minute chart ones. Out of 3 grains + 4 soft + gold copper nickel + natgas oil = 12 if we can catch one nice move a year for each that's equivalent to 1 a month and it's a big deal. Maybe 2 losers 1 winner on average, with the rare occasional painful gap maybe. 12 times 4R minus 24 times 1R counting spreads, that's 24R. With 1% risk then this means 27% return. On top of FX if you can handle all of that. I think this is realistic. As a pro trader with a decent account risk would rather be 0.5% or less because what serious professional wants some huge drawdowns in his capital makes no sense, that 24R becomes 12.7%. I think this is realistic from what I have seen & heard around but well only way to know what we can probably get out of it is look at our own track record. 1/10R spread means every 10 trades 1R is lost, so there is no place for breakeven overtrading. “Do not trade every day of every year.” - Jesse Livermore A dozen commodities plus a dozen currencies... This means less time to spend on the big aspects of this activity: money management, risk management, avoiding blowing up, doing all sorts of estimates, knowing yourself, getting out of losers and moving on, staying in winners... I don't think ~25 in the radar is that huge when fulltime, of course as long as they got added 1 by 1 progressively, studied & known well, and being able to stay away of dead markets and only look at the potentially interesting ones. For example Corn was completely off the radar all of may & june and it is one of the most violent ones last 6 months. NatGas was just nasty for the whole first half of 2020, Oil well you probably know, Silver before going up was in accumulation for years, I could go on... You're not really watching the whole watchlist at all time, maybe really 1/3 so rather than 12 currencies + commodities it is 4+4 and really you pay full attention to up to 3-4 analyse read read read prepare calculate list scenarios get ready etc and the rest is just on the side not 100% focus. More than this is getting a bit ridiculous in my opinion, especially for a single person. “It is much easier to watch a few than many” - Jesse Livermore again “Big movements take time to develop” - Same guy Damn, plenty of quotes on being patient and my favorite is Livermore again 😂 “There is a time to go long, a time to go short and a time to go fishing.” “I don’t think you can get to be a really good investor over a broad range without doing a massive amount of reading. I don’t think any one book will do it for you.” - Charlie Munger “I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up. I do nothing in the meantime.” - Jim Rogers “Beware of trading quotes.” - Andreas Clenow With experience and good organisation you learn when to look and when not to, and also understand you do not have to check every news and every chart all the time to catch every move, fearing to miss out is plain dense once you understand how this really works and what it really is. A couple of winners in a year is all it takes. Those that aim for more than this... They are the ones that fail. George Soros if I am correct just made a couple of big one sided bets, he started with Jim Rogers mostly in commodities (after working as an arbitrage trader on european stocks & 10 years as an investment VP), they made stupid returns and then he did FX? Gosh I might have it all wrong but it's something like that, and he is famous for his big win on the GBP, his big losses on the rubble & Thai Baht. Oh wait no he crashed Thailand kek. He got slapped hard in the face as he kept shorting small & medium cap stocks after Trump election. And didn't he short Bitcoin? Or buy? The markets really only offer a couple of opportunities once in a while, not 50 a month. I do not think the spreads get lower than this. Going for a couple of ATR (in moves that take 1-3 weeks) and not trying too often to get in (gets very expensive) it is not that bad. No retail day traders that want to get poor quick is the best part. Nickel is not available on tradingview, have to look at it via broker or investing.com (they use tradingview charting service). Rest is all here. Nickel really trending for long for the past year+ tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net
TVC:PALLADIUMEducation
by MrRenev
Trading Edge 2020 Portfolio -Trade #4- GLD - Put Debit SpreadTicker: GLD Position: - 21st Feb 2020 Put debit spread - Long $150 strike Put - delta 0.90 - cost = $3.65 - Short $148 strike Put - delta 0.70 - credit = $2.04 - Net cost/ spread = $1.61 - Running 5x spreads (5x of both strikes) Net cost = $805 Profit target/ break even/ exit: - Max profit of the spread at expiry = cost of the spread minus the width of the spread = $1.61 - $2.00 = $0.39 (24% of cost of spread) - If GLD remains under the short leg of the spread ($148) by expiry (21st Feb 2020) then the spread will have achieved maximum profit - Break even for the spread at expiry is the long strike minus the cost of the spread ($150 - $1.61) = $148.39 (white line) - Exit if GLD closes just above the break even point ($149/ Purple line) - Can also exit the spread earlier if 80% of maximum profit is realized = 0.39 (max profit) x 0.8 = 0.312 + 1.61 (cost of the spread) = $1.92 (more conservative exit price for the spread) Rationale: - GLD appears to be stalling around the $148- $150 range - Stocks are still a little too extended for me to look at longs, however i realize that higher equities are on the cards for the next week or so, this is a more conservative to way to play both the stalling momentum in gold and the relative strength in equities - The upside is capped with this strategy, however it is still a relatively good risk/ reward, particularly with the higher delta spread (short leg being delta 70) - TradingEdge
AMEX:GLDShort
by Profit_Link
Trading Edge 2020 Portfolio -Trade #6 - WMT - Asymmetric Spread Ticker: WMT *This trade is a little more complex, than the others, as it has 2 separate spreads, but stick with me Position: 1st leg - Call debit spread - 21st Feb 2020 expiry - Long 114 Strike call = $4.85 - D = 0.99 - Short 115 Strike call = $4.25 - D = 0.95 - Net cost of 1st leg = $0.6 Position: 2nd leg - Put debit spread - 21st Feb 2020 expiry - Long 120 Strike put = $3.88 - D = 0.88 - Short 119 Strike put = $3.30 - D = 0.73 - Net cost of 2nd leg = $0.58 Total net cost to run 1x of EACH spread = $1.18 <-------- This is the key number to pay attention to (DO NOT ENTER if this price is above $1.30) Profit Target/ Exit: - Maximum profit at expiration is $0.82 (both spreads finish at max value) - Maximum risk = $0.18 (one of the spreads is guaranteed to finish at maximum value ($1.00), therefore the maximum risk is simply the excess, in this case $0.18 - This gives us a "Return on Risk" (RoR) multiple of 4.5, this is a very good asymmetric trade, but it is entirely dependent on the price paid for BOTH spreads, this is why the highest price i would pay is $1.30 for both spreads, lower than $1.25 would be ideal - Even the worse case scenario of paying $1.30 would still result in a $0.30 risk to make $0.70, which is still a RoR multiple of 2.3 - Exit, let the spreads run their course for the duration, we are risking the full exposed premium (so limit your risk assuming it will fail) Rationale: - The high RoR multiple is the major rationale, coupled with the relatively low risk and entry cost - So long as WMT finishes within the outlined white lines, the trade will be profitable - If WMT finishes within the red lines, the trade will achieve maximum profit - Position size only so that your are risking a relatively small amount, i will risk no more than around $400 - Technically, WMT does appear to be more bullish than bearish, if this does eventuate, then a simple way to play that would be to incorporate a naked bought call, to capture the upside, however this would also make this a directional trade, whereas currently this is a theta dependent trade. *Note, the specific entry prices will likely vary, however so long as the net cost to run 1x of BOTH spreads is less than $1.30, ideally less than $1.25, then it will still be a valid trade - TradingEdge
NYSE:WMT
by Profit_Link
Trading Edge 2020 Portfolio -Trade #5- MCD - Call Debit SpreadTicker: MCD Position: - Feb 14th Expiry - Long 210 Strike call = 3.78 - Delta 0.92 - Short 212.50 Strike call = 1.90 - Delta 0.62 - Net cost = $1.88 - Break even at expiry = $211.88 - Max profit = $0.62 (33%) - Run 5x contracts = $940 Profit/ Exit targets: - Exit position if MCD closes below the 21 ema on the daily - Max profit is target, you may wish to run 80% max value of spread as your exit ($2.376 GTC sell order for spread) Rationale: - MCD has bounced off the 21 ema - MACD is signaling a potential bullish continuation on both daily and lower time frames (4hr, 1hr etc.) - MCD is within 4% of prior highs - Moving averages are all stacked bullishly - Appears to be in a solid uptrend, looking for some near-term trend continuation -TradingEdge
NYSE:MCDLong
by Profit_Link