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Spreads

AFL - Bull Put Spread - Weekly & Daily Chart SetupBack from Hols - Back to Trading - Back to Profit..!!! Weekly (W) Chart, Post Earnings showing good Pullback towards Mid BB%. W RSI is <10. Looking for S/R around the 52 level. Looking for Reversal to mean back higher. Aiming for 52.50 /50 Put Credit Spread with 55 Calls for directional Bias higher. Exp SEPT - As this is weekly Chart, looking to leave time to run well into Profit. Exit around W RSI level 50/60.70 depending on levels and PA. Good Luck - Watch your $$$ RISK.
NYSE:AFLLong
by Quantamental
AUDCAD fundamentals and technicalsCanadian benchmark rate is at 1,75% and is expected to rise gradually but is dependent on the oil prices, as growing concerns over growing surplus and lower demand. Canada is highly dependent on the U.S. economy where there are expectations on a slowdown to more sustainable pace through 2019. Consumption spending and housing investment is slowly weakening, and a high interest rate is not helping. while household spending also will be dampened further. The economy is expected to grow by 1,7% this year. CPI inflation is also expected to edge further down, while a lower canadian dollar could increase some upward pressure. Australia´s benchmark rate is at 1,50% and is likely to stay at the level for some time. the lower level of interest rates are showing some support for the Australian economy. After a rise in house prices credit conditions for borrowers are tighter than before which results a fall in house prices. Some optimism for a U.S. - China trade agreement could push the AUD higher, while slowing growth concerns can put some downside risk to the Aussie as Australia is highly dependent on China which is the biggest export market for them. CPI inflation is expected to fall in the short term because of the low oil prices. Australia´s economy is expected to grow with 3% through 2019 and support a strong labor market while also supporting inflation target of 2% Growth outlook is being supported by rising business investments and higher spending on public infrastructure. CFTC-Report is showing a bigger positions in net short on the CAD than the AUD where previously levels have shown that the aussie was heavily shorted. the net short is slowly decreasing for AUD. Bond spreads between CA05Y vs. AU05Y is tight with a higher yield on the CA05. This could indicate that some selling is taking place for CA05 and some buying for AU05 i expect the bond yields to widen a bit with higher yield on CA05 Looking for a break of 0.95 handle with stops below 0.94 handle.
Long
by Fx-AlphaStrats
USDRUB fundamentals and bond spread.Russian GDP annual growth rate is expected to come out February 1 with an increase of 0,70% from 1,50% to 2,20% while GDP in April is expected to fall into a 2,10% growth rate, Agricultural GDP is almost at 2017 levels, and will likely contribute to a stronger ruble. Manufacturing and construction GDP is also inching for a strong growth rate this year. Exports is at 2013 levels and have increased from January 2018 to November 2018 with 20,44%. Increases in export are expected to hold its momentum and increase throughout 2019, giving Russia a positive trade surplus. Higher oil prices is also contributing to the GDP growth. Consumer confidence is at -17.. While consumer spending is almost at its highest. Disposable income is at 0,10% and is expected to rise by 0,40% this year. Retail sales advanced 2,60% in 2018 compared with 1,30% increase in 2017. Retail sales is expected to rise modestly in 2019. Wages and living wages have increased in 2018. Unemployment rate is at historically lows since mid 2018. Overall, i see Ruble to gain this year against the Dollar. Holding shorts, and will increase position when/if break of 64,400, 62,750, and 61,000 if we reach that far :) i will be looking at hedge opportunities. Keep in mind that Russia is still a risky trade, with sanctions imposed from U.S. and Europe. So, the whole think could turn against me. But from the fundamental perspective, i see a bullish ruble. TradingView does not provide data from RU10YT. But if you can find the data, then compare it with US10YT and you would see a that spreads are narrowing between those. This could indicate more demand for the Russian 10-year bond as the yield is decreasing.
Short
by Fx-AlphaStrats
Yield spreads say more selling aheadDuring several previous liquidity crisis in 2001,2008,2012, 2016 the investment grade corporate yields spread over treasuries hit 200+ bps ... right now at an average spread of 150 basis points, may suggest more pain ahead before capitulation is reached. In other words investment grade corporate bond yields may be still too low. Based on what we've seen during several previous liquidity crisis the cost of borrowing in corporate credit may need to rise another 50 basis points before this is over.
M
by dime
2
Warning- Inverted Yield Curve likelyUS10 US02 This may not look like something to watch and you may not know about it. Only about 2% of investors understand it, however 98% of institutional traders (the “smart money”) watch it like the World Cup finals. Its the 10 year treasury yield to the 2 Year treasury yield ratio/spread. Bottomline: If it goes negative (hits the dotted yellow line) = Inverted Yield Curve = BAD for Stocks and GOOD for Bonds.. I’d reevaluate everything and have stop losses for every trade. Side note: I have no idea what it means for crypto because bitcoin did not exist the last time yield curve went inverted late 2007.
TVC:US10Y
by jgeno
NZD/JPYLast lesson for today. I want to catch something moving in a direction, after it pulls back and starts to continue, based on wave theory and fibonacci, among other things, of course. When you trade something going in a direction u can wind up in this......(a diagonal usually indicating price reversal, at least this type)...Just put your stop above the high right? Nope. The reason it pulls back so close to the high but doesn't break it is because they want to create the illusion that you can set a stop above the high and let it run.... But the spread will get it.....Hehehe... I'm still on the buy though until structure changes.
by thillygoosth
Bitcoin: BTCUST Bitcoin Spreads Her Wings+Which Exchange is BestBitcoin: Which Exchange is Best/Most Reliable for trades, stops, and signals? (next buy-points at bottom) Bitcoin Update Coinbase/Bitstamp and Bitfinex The ridiculous situation of multiple prices across multiple competing exchanges has once more caused chaos with stops yesterday if they were raised too tight under 9900. The subsequent low on Coinbase was 9914 and was 9902 on Bitstamp - but on Bitfinex it was 9874 which was just crap. Mofo. Sorry for that if you traded this exchange. Coinbase levels have been most reliable for trading signals and stops and Bitstamp too. This constant change is maddening - for all of us and entails twice as much work as simply following one feed as well as the futures market too. For sure Coinbase is less whippy than Bitfinex or Bitstamp and so is better for placing stops - look at the smoothness of the chart on 5 minutes here compared to others - and yet the highest price achieved today was 10307 on Coinbase compared to 10300 on Bitstamp and 10271 lowest high of the 3 on Bitfinex. So Bitfinex loses on best price achieved and Coinbase wins with Bitstamp in middle. The lowest lows of the day were once again made on Bitfinex at 9670, whilst Coinbase had the highest low of the day at 9729 with Bitstamp in the middle again at 9707. Once again Bitfinex loses with Bitstamp in the middle. And then the last raised stop yesterday at 'under 9900' - if you were unlucky enough to trade Bitfinex and had it closer than 25 points under this level it got taken - and yet on the other 2 exchanges the stop stayed good. So yet again Bitfinex fails on every level. Coinbase is best right now, with Bitstamp in the middle and Bitfinex a sorry third. So am quitting Bitfinex as it's too treacherous with stops. Volatility can can ruin decent calls with 'good' stops. Coinbase is the least volatile, so better for stops, usually. Last Update: 16:34 est Anyway, for traders on the less volatile 2 out 3 exchanges who are still long, Bitcoin still looks just fine whilst it holds up above the bigger dynamic and can let it run and raise stops under the next correction low when we get it, except on Bitfinex which probably needs stops at least 50 below/above any similar stop on Coinbase to stay safe. Still believe there is much more upside to come whilst Bitcoin holds that upper dynamic support. Saturday Update: Bitcoin Spreads her Wings Bitcoin has had another positive session overnight as Far Eastern buyers begin to return to the market. FUD is so last year. Bitcoin is up 2000 points since the break at 8888 and we were lucky to get both that initial break and the lows of yesterday at 9700 to get long again if stopped out at 9900 on the first long. Every point of upside from the lows so far has been traded and won. We also shorted right down to the exact lows and actually closed out right on the lows of the year before going long again at 6200. Every point of the rally from 6200 to 10800 has been traded and won despite a brief wobble at the 9000 level - but even that break out at 8888 on Coinbase chart was followed and traded faithfully as the patterns on the chart dictated. And the pattern on this chart is saying 12192 minimum over the next 2 to 3 days. In very near term it's had a good run overnight and has hit the resistance line at 10829 after making a high at 10890. It's now unwinding a little but using an old dynamic resistance line as a support as it does so, line-dancing Bitcoin style. Whilst it holds up off that line it's strong still but whilst unable to beat and regain the blue line at 10829 and on up to the new day's highs at 10890 it's effectively in neutral in the very near term- but still with a strong undertone. It can spend some time flipping between the dynamic at 10648-10586 as support and the highs at 10829-10890 as resistance but will ultimately break to the updside. And on downside it will have too break below 10586 to trigger further selling back to 10307 support line where it becomes another buy.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
1
Yield Curve Continues to FallAs investors price in lower inflation and increased expectations for a Fed rate hike, the yield curve (between the 30 year bond and the two year note) is continuously making new lows. Typically, the flattening or steepening of the yield curve is led by one end, but in this case, both appear to be contributing equally. This presents a problem for the Fed as raising rates (or more hawkish rhetoric) could hurl the yield curve closer to negative territory. We can see the spread has been hugging the lower bound of the Kovach Reversals Indicator for some time, which is an extremely bearish sign. Also, the slope of the spread has become increasingly more negative. If you want access to the Kovach Reversals indicator and more, check out quantguy.net.
TVC:US30YShort
by quantguy
The Yield Curve Flattens and Altcoins RipAs the markets price in the next interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, we see the spread between the 30 year and 2 year US treasuries continue to flatten. It is probably not coincidence that peaks in the Altcoin Index match up with with relative bottoms (especially recently) in the treasury spread. Also, although this is somewhat due to the Segwit2x drama this weekend, observe how the Altcoin Index has really skyrocketed over the past couple days. This may indicate some cryptocurrency adoption from 'smart money', though many establishment figureheads have publicly rebuked cryptos. If you're interested in the Kovach Altcoin Index or the Crypto Spread Indicator, among other tools, please check out quantguy.net
TVC:US30YShort
by quantguy
Short term target 46, upsloping trend lineBroke out of uptrend with high volume. CFTC showed specs were long, so there is plenty of room to the downside. Spreads have been weak and option volatility was low before breakout. As it broke to the downside, longs scrambled to protect with an downside puts and panic left option vol to increase by over 6 points. On the downside, i am looking into the trendline around 46ish. I would expect a breather there. if it holds, great, but production in the US is up. Only an agreement between Russia and the OPEc on production cuts could truly turn this around.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by mjhillpp
2