S&P500: Bottom formed on the 4H MA200. Target 6,140.The S&P500 is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.959, MACD = 37.160, ADX = 31.912) as it is on a sideways trade forming the new bottom of the Channel Up between the 4H MA50 and 4H MA200. The 1D RSI is on a bullish divergence that was present on both prior bottoms. Both rose by at least +5.30% after. That rise projection from the bottom is our target (TP = 6,140).
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SPX (S&P 500 Index)
Avoid Financial Disaster: Master Portfolio Protection.Safeguarding your portfolio is as critical as the pursuit of growth. While the excitement of asset appreciation draws many into the investing world, the reality is that market fluctuations can pose significant threats to even the most meticulously devised plans. Portfolio protection strategies exist to shield your assets against the inevitable risks inherent in financial markets, allowing you to endure turbulent economic seasons without incurring substantial losses. Whether you're an experienced investor or a newcomer, the significance of effective risk management cannot be overstated.
Markets are known for their volatility, often reflecting shifts in economic conditions, political events, and societal sentiments. A downturn can erase years of gains in a matter of moments if protective measures are lacking. Therefore, constructing a robust portfolio demanding attention to diversification, risk management techniques, and strategic asset allocation is paramount. The aim of these strategies is not the complete avoidance of risk but rather the mitigation of its potential impact, ensuring that your investment trajectory remains stable over time.
The Importance of Portfolio Protection for Lasting Success
In today’s fast-paced investment landscape, prioritizing long-term protection strategies is crucial for sustained financial success. While opportunities abound, they often come hand-in-hand with unexpected downturns, economic turmoil, or global crises that could significantly hinder wealth accumulation. During distressing market conditions, stock prices may experience extreme volatility, leading to potentially disastrous outcomes for investors who lack robust protective measures.
The consequences of failing to implement adequate protection can be catastrophic. Severe market corrections can rapidly erase gains, forcing investors to either sell at a loss or make hasty, emotional decisions. This knee-jerk reaction can create a cycle of mismanagement, further amplifying losses and jeopardizing long-term financial objectives. In stark contrast, those who incorporate strategies designed to protect against market downturns can maintain composure during turmoil, effectively safeguarding their investments while positioning themselves for recovery as conditions improve.
Preserving capital during unpredictable phases is not merely about avoiding losses; it is about fostering resilience. By minimizing risk exposure, investors enhance their ability to bounce back from setbacks and continue on their path toward growth. Techniques such as diversification, strategic asset allocation, and hedging help create a safety net during tumultuous times. For example, a diversified portfolio that encompasses bonds, commodities, and international assets offers a buffer against losses when one sector falters.
Key Strategies for Portfolio Protection
For an investment portfolio to withstand the inevitable ups and downs of the market, implementing a suite of protection strategies is essential. Here are several methods that can help minimize risks and optimize long-term growth potential:
1. Diversification Across Asset Classes
At its core, diversification is a fundamental strategy for risk management. By allocating investments across various asset classes—such as stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities—investors can mitigate overall risk. The rationale behind this approach is straightforward: when one asset class struggles, others may thrive, balancing the portfolio's performance.
For instance, in a bearish equity market, bonds or real estate may exhibit stability or even appreciate, cushioning the blow from declining stocks. A well-crafted diversification strategy not only fortifies against losses but also creates opportunities for steady returns. An effectively diversified portfolio reduces vulnerability by distributing risk across a spectrum of investments, a critical aspect of portfolio protection.
2. Hedging with Derivatives
Hedging is a powerful technique that allows investors to guard against financial market volatility using derivatives like options and futures. For example, purchasing put options on a stock provides a safety net, giving investors the right to sell at a specified price and limiting potential losses.
While hedging does not obliterate risk, it functions as insurance, softening the impact of adverse market movements. This strategic approach requires a deep understanding of financial instruments, but when applied correctly, it can significantly bolster portfolio resilience.
3. Incorporating Defensive Investments
During economic instability and market downturns, defensive investments or safe-haven assets come into play. These assets typically retain their value, providing stability in the face of broader market declines. Sectors such as healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples represent defensive stocks that generate consistent revenue regardless of economic conditions.
Furthermore, assets like gold and government bonds are renowned for their stability during turbulent times. Gold often appreciates as stock markets decline, serving as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation. Government bonds offer a reliable income stream, making them low-risk investments during periods of uncertainty. Incorporating these defensive strategies enhances an investor's ability to manage risk effectively.
4. Regular Portfolio Review and Rebalancing
Maintaining an optimal risk level requires regular portfolio assessments and adjustments aligned with financial goals. As market dynamics evolve, certain assets may outperform or underperform, disrupting the initial asset allocation and potentially amplifying risk.
To counter this, investors should conduct routine rebalancing—selling portions of outperforming assets and reallocating proceeds into underperforming or lower-risk investments. This process helps restore the intended asset mix and ensures adherence to overall financial objectives, promoting stability within the portfolio.
Advanced Portfolio Protection Techniques
For seasoned investors, advanced protection tactics can provide deeper layers of security against market fluctuations. These strategies extend beyond conventional diversification, utilizing sophisticated financial instruments and techniques tailored for effective risk management.
1 - Portfolio Insurance
This technique merges equities with protective puts to limit potential losses. By holding onto stocks while acquiring put options, investors cap their downside risk while still allowing for participation in market gains.
2 - Volatility-Based Strategies
Adjusting exposure based on market volatility indicators can also serve as a proactive approach to risk management. For instance, heightened volatility might necessitate reducing equity exposure in favor of low-volatility assets, thereby maintaining manageable risk levels.
3 - Utilizing Swaps and Collars
Swaps can facilitate the exchange of investment risks, providing flexibility for managing exposure to market fluctuations. A collar strategy, conversely, combines purchasing a put with selling a call option, creating a protective range that limits both potential losses and profit. These advanced tactics suit investors seeking tailored risk solutions.
Common Pitfalls in Portfolio Protection
Despite the necessity of safety strategies, several missteps can undermine their efficacy. Recognizing these errors is crucial for maintaining a resilient portfolio.
1 - Over-Diversification
While diversification is vital, over-diversifying can dilute returns and complicate portfolio management. An unmanageable number of small investments may also escalate fees and expenses unnecessarily.
2 - Neglecting Market Conditions
Failing to adjust portfolios in response to fluctuating economic or geopolitical climates can expose investors to heightened risks. Consistent reevaluation is essential to keep portfolios aligned with prevailing market trends and personal objectives.
3 - Overtraditional Reliance on One Strategy
Dependence on a singular protective measure—be it Stop Loss orders or a single hedge—can be detrimental. Instead, employing a multifaceted approach that integrates various strategies enhances systemic resilience to market volatility.
4 - Ignoring Changes in Risk Tolerance
Personal circumstances and market conditions can shift your risk profile, especially as significant life milestones approach. Neglecting to recalibrate asset allocation in light of these extrinsic factors can lead to increased vulnerability during downturns.
Being aware of these common pitfalls will enhance your ability to protect your investments and pursue long-term financial goals with confidence.
Conclusion
Establishing a resilient portfolio necessitates a strategic approach to safeguarding your investments. In a world filled with uncertainties, deploying effective portfolio protection strategies remains essential for navigating market volatility. Techniques from diversification to hedging to the utilization of advanced instruments serve to fortify your investments against sudden declines while ensuring the potential for sustainable growth.
The journey toward financial success thrives on a commitment to ongoing investment monitoring and a willingness to adapt as conditions change. By implementing a blend of protective strategies—regular rebalancing, investment in safe havens, and employing sophisticated tools—you can cultivate a durable portfolio equipped to weather economic fluctuations. Remember, protecting your investment portfolio is not simply a reactive task, but an evolving commitment aligned with your financial aspirations and the inherent uncertainties of the marketplace.
S&P 500: Long Trade Targets AheadS&P 500 Trade Details:
The S&P 500 (SPX) on the 15-minute timeframe confirms a bullish breakout according to the Risological trading indicator . Target 1 (TP1) has been successfully hit, with higher targets in sight, as the bullish momentum sustains.
S&P 500 Key Levels:
Entry: 5889.16
Stop Loss (SL): 5872.22
S&P 500 Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 5910.09 ✅
TP2: 5943.96
TP3: 5977.82
TP4: 5998.75
Analysis:
The price action indicates strong upward momentum with consecutive bullish candles. The moving averages align to support the trend. Short-term resistance at higher targets may see consolidation before further upward movement.
Outlook:
With TP1 hit, the trade looks promising to reach TP2 and beyond. Keep monitoring momentum strength and secure profits as each level is achieved. Stay cautious of reversals near key resistance zones.
Gold takes Adv. since Trump-a-rally pans out to Bulls fartIt's gone 2 weeks or so, since Mr. Trump has secured a win over his Democrat-rival Kamala Harris in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as it declared by the Associated Press.
Since that, a lot of stocks soared in a meme-style mode, while Bitcoin clears $93,000 and Dogecoin soared amid Trump-fueled crypto rally.
Among nearly 2000 components of Smallcap Russell 2000 Index TVC:RUT , appr. 90 percent of them (without any fundamental reasons) were up on November 6 - at the day Trump clinched White House victory.
For S&P 500 SP:SPX and Nasdaq-100 NASDAQ:NDX indices these numbers were 70 and 75 percent respectively.
Since US dollar interest rates are still near multi year highs and Powell still says the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates.. all of that means Trump-a-rally gives no light for super-duper bets, as it's been discussed in earlier posted ideas.
Moreover, Geopolitics is roaring back, as current U.S. President Joe Biden tries to authorize the yellow-blues to use powerful long-range American-made weapons inside Russia's legal areas, potentially inside Kursk region where located The Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, that is one of the three biggest nuclear power plants (NPPs) in Russia and one of the four biggest electricity producers in the country.
The main graph is for Gold spot OANDA:XAUUSD , and it indicates on Cup with Handle technical structure in development as Gold takes Adv. since Trump-a-rally pans out to Bulls fart.
S&P500 / Bearish Trend toward 5803 S&P 500
Technical Analysis
The price dropped as we mentioned at the previous idea.
Now still has a bearish trend to get 5803, so as long as trades below 5863 means will drop to touch 5803 and 5781 for today
it is possible to do a retest till 5863 and then will start dropping
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5863
Resistance Levels: 5896, 5927
Support Levels: 5803, 5781, 5735
Trend Outlook:
- Bearish Trend while Below 5803
previous idea:
ES/SPX Morning Update Nov 19thThe 5886 level remains a money magnet in ES. Yesterday, 5886 served as key support, setting up a relief bounce to the 5934 target. We held 5886 exactly and ran to target. Overnight, it held once again.
As of now: No changes. 5886 (weaker now) supports moves to 5911, 5922, and 5935+. If 5886 fails, selling could begin toward 5862.
US DOLLAR - Let Me Explain My Bearish Thesis...In this video, I’ll share why I believe the markets are on the verge of a major downturn.
By analyzing the US dollar chart alongside Gold, the S&P 500, and Bond Yields, I’ll explain why we may be approaching the final stages of this market cycle for stocks and asset prices.
This shift could devastate the economy, setting the stage for the next bull market. While the extent of the drop will depend on market forces, I’ll explore how such a scenario could unfold. We’ve already seen Oil prices plunge to zero—if you think that can’t happen to other markets, time may prove otherwise.
This is simply a turning point, a necessary reset to pave the way for future growth.
This is not financial advice.
ES/SPX Morning Update Nov 20thYesterday, buyers delivered a textbook setup: a Failed Breakdown at the key 5886 level, which triggering longs. The 5956 target, as outlined, was hit perfectly overnight.
As of now: Let runners ride until the move concludes. Supports are 5943 (weak) and 5928. If we base here, 5963 and 5972+ are the next targets. A failure of 5928 would signal a deeper dip.
2024-11-19 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Bullish bias still. The reversal was nasty and we had a very strong close. We are in a nested expanding triangle and if bears are strong, market won’t get above 5950. If bulls do, we go 5980 and the bear trend line next. I lean bullish. Measured move up from today gets us close to the ath and it’s the third try bears tried to close below the 50% retracement and failed. Good chance today was bears giving up and we melt again to a new ath. If we drop below 5900 again, I am probably wrong and bears taking over again.
comment : Nasty reversal and a good close by the bulls. Can expect follow through tomorrow above 5950 up tom 5980 and test the bear trend line. Above that we print a new ath. Best for bears would be to keep this below 5950 and then they have a chance of testing down to 5900 again. I have a heavy bullish bias going into tomorrow as long as market does not drop below 5900 much again
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 5900 - 6100
bull case: Bulls want to test the bear trend line around 5980 and go above 6000 again. They do need to break above 5950 first, which could be resistance due to the expanding triangle pattern but I doubt it. They kept the market 3 days in a row above the 50% retracement and I don’t think bears are strong enough to try a fourth time tomorrow. Measured move up from today’s reversal leads to around 6036.
Invalidation is below 5900.
bear case: Bears had an amazing sell off but bulls bought it big time. Technically this could be seen as a bear flag, but bears would have to keep the market below 5950 for that. That’s their first target and then getting below 5900 again. Since we are seeing big time buying below 5900 and the selling was mainly due to news, I don’t think bears are favored.
Invalidation is above 5950.
short term: Bullish. Probably more squeezing late bears tomorrow and I still do have unreasonable insane targets above 6100 that could be hit over the next days-weeks.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-16: So the top definitely qualifies as a blow-off top but the question if we continue further up, is still valid. It is possible that we are already inside the correction and if we continue below 5860, I highly doubt bulls can get above 6000 again. Given the current market structure, I won’t turn bear because the risk of another retest of the highs or even higher ones are just too big.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Buying 5855. Market printed a perfect inverted head & shoulders on the 1m tf, huge bull bars on a big volume increase. 3 almost too good to by true reasons to take the trade.
GEX levels of SPX for Weekly Option TradersAlthough the SPX is currently trading within a relatively neutral positive gamma range, it’s worth taking a closer look at what the week might hold.
This week, SPX is moving between critical resistance and support levels, which are showing significant options activity. The 5900 level is the key CALL resistance, acting as the gamma wall for the next 7 days (7DTE) . This suggests that as long as the price remains below this level, it will face strong resistance in moving higher. If the market breaks through this level, it could signal a bullish breakout, leading to increased turbulence.
🟨 DETAILED VIEW:
In case of a breakout, keep an eye on the second weaker CALL wall at 5925 and the third weaker CALL wall at 5940, which are the next potential resistance levels once the market moves past the 5900 gamma wall. These levels could play a pivotal role in the price’s upward movement and indicate further buying pressure.
🔶 HVL Level and Gamma Environment: 5830
The 5830 level represents the High Volatility Level (HVL), which determines whether we are in a positive or negative gamma environment. If SPX closes below this level, we enter the negative gamma zone, which could lead to increased market volatility. This could result in sharper price movements during the week if this level does not hold. In that case, the PUT supports come into focus.
The 5750 level marks the strongest PUT support, providing substantial downward support for the market. However, before reaching this level, it’s important to consider the emerging PUT wall at 5765, which may stop the price from falling lower. This could act as an intermediate support, slowing or even halting a decline before the 5750 level comes into play.
🔶 Implied Volatility and Time-Based Strategic Opportunities NOW
The decrease in implied volatility, as shown by the IV and IVx indicators, signals a calmer market environment. Based on IV rank and average IV levels, volatility is running lower, which presents good opportunities for various spread strategies, especially time spreads that can be optimized between the 11/01 and 11/04 time frame.
Key levels above could fuel further market movement throughout the week if a breakout occurs. CALL/PUT gamma levels on the options chain strongly outline the potential resistance and support levels, but these levels can change dynamically, especially if SPX breaks through the 5900 level.
🔶 SPX Key Levels This Week:
5900 CALL resistance – Main gamma wall, strong resistance.
5925 and 5940 – Second and third weaker CALL walls, offering additional resistance if broken.
5830 HVL – Key level determining the gamma environment.
5765 PUT wall – Emerging intermediate PUT support, which could slow a decline.
5750 PUT support – Strongest PUT gamma wall and support.
Keep these levels in mind throughout the week, as they will likely influence market movements and the volatility environment. By applying the right options strategies, this information can help you structure profitable positions.
S&P Weekly Recap: Rally Falters Amid Lack of ConvictionLast week’s market action delivered a reversal in sentiment, highlighting the fragility of the rally that had persisted since the so-called "Trump rally." The week began slowly, with the market testing buyers’ conviction to push prices higher. After confirming a lack of such conviction, sellers stepped in, driving prices sharply lower. As suggested in my previous recap, 585 (VAH) provided temporary support, and the week closed near this critical level.
Interestingly, most major sectors participated in the downward move, aligning with the broader market trend. However, XLF (Financials) stood out as the exception, managing to post gains despite the sell-off. This divergence suggests that there is still buying interest, with money continuing to flow selectively into the market.
The immediate objective for the bulls is to hold 585 and attempt to fill Friday’s gap. Failure to do so, with the price returning to the 568-585 range , would indicate that the rally is nearing exhaustion. While this would not immediately signal a transition into a bear market, it would mark a notable shift in sentiment. The 568 level remains critical for buyers; as long as it holds, the broader uptrend stays intact, and bulls maintain the upper hand. Meaning that I keep "bullish" outlook.
This week, the market’s attention will be on NVIDIA's earnings on Wednesday. While the previous report didn’t cause much volatility, traders will be closely watching for any surprises that could influence market momentum.
S&P 500 Insights: Consolidation and Breakout ScenariosThe S&P 500 experienced a notable decline of approximately 2.5% over the past week.
Current price action suggests a period of consolidation within the range of 5863 to 5896 before a decisive breakout.
Key Scenario Analysis:
Bullish Breakout: A confirmed close above 5896 on a 4-hour or 1-hour candle will signal renewed bullish momentum, targeting an initial move toward 5927.
Bearish Continuation: Conversely, a confirmed close below 5863, particularly on at least a 1-hour timeframe, is expected to trigger a bearish extension toward 5803.
Key Levels
Pivot Point: 5896
Resistance Levels: 5927, 5969, 6002
Support Levels: 5863, 5833, 5803
Trend Outlook:
- Bearish Trend Below 5663
- Bullish Trend Above 5896
previous idea:
S&P500 completed a 0.5 Fib correction. Strong buy opportunity.The S&P500 index (SPX) reached on Friday the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, a technical correction that started after the price made a Higher High at the top of the 2-month Channel Up. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been tested (and held) already on the day of the U.S. elections, so now we are technically still on the new Bullish Leg of the pattern.
As you can see, since the April 19 2024 bottom and the start of the even longer Bullish Megaphone pattern, every time a pull-back stopped within the 0.382 - 0.5 Fib range, the index resumed the bullish trend towards the -0.618 Fib extension. The 1D MACD with its Bullish and Bearish Crosses, is also illustrating this symmetry.
As a result, we believe that the current pull-back is over and we are now targeting 6210, which is within to potential -0.618 Fib targets.
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SPX: post-election reality checkThe post-election reality check was evident on the US equity markets during the previous week. Although the first week was marked with euphoria over potential tax cuts, still, the second week was marked with concerns over the rising US treasury yields. The S&P 500 started the week at the level of 6.005, but ended it at 5.870. A specific hit came from the pharmaceutical industry, after the appointment of R.F. Kennedy Junior as a leader of the US Department of Health and Human Services in the new administration, who was vaccine-sceptic during the pandemic period. The largest pharmaceutical and biotech companies were traded around 5% lower on this news. The market-favourite largest tech companies were down around 2%. Of course, the only company that gained during the week was Tesla, which was traded around 3% higher on a weekly basis.
The market reaction to a new US administration and potential changes which it can bring to the US macro and geopolitical standing, will most certainly continue in the coming period, as analysts are noting. In this sense, further volatility on the equity markets might be expected. Still, aspects of Feds influence should not be overseen. Regardless of current post-election hype, the Fed is the one which holds the strings of the US economy, and markets are still very sensitive to comments from Fed Chair Powell. His latest view that the “Fed is not in a hurry to cut interest rates” has been priced with a negative sentiment.
nasdaq to 20k?!good evening,
---
consider this post somewhat fictional for now, created more for entertainment purposes, but i want you to know that there are some serious data points which i'm going to bring up to build the case that the stock market has found a long term bottom.
---
~our monthly indicator is finally oversold for the first time since 2009 market low and is on the verge of crossing bullish.
~nasdaq is backtesting the monthly ichimoku cloud.
~0.382 cycle wave 4 target hit through a very complex correction .
~the monthly rsi has confirmed a hidden bear.
~the us dollar found a top and is headed down to about 80 bucks over this next year.
~us10y, topped out.
~fed might run out of money if they continue to press the markets.
~fear is at all time high.
~retail short positions are at all time high.
~and i'm buying everything.
---
the cycle w5 target on nasdaq sits at $20,000 and we could be in the early stages of beginning that ascension.
---
ps. take my words with a total grain of salt, as i could be very much dreaming here.
ps2. in my last big nasdaq post, i called the top, but was early by a few months. it also went a bit higher, so if i adjust the target with the current data, we have reached the 4th wave target successfully.
✌
Trading Gameplan For Nov 18thPlan for Monday’s Session
Supports:
• Major: 5886-88, 5864, 5843-46, 5828, 5806, 5796-5802, 5758, 5749, 5730.
• Minor: 5892, 5878, 5871, 5855, 5849, 5839, 5819, 5812, 5787, 5782, 5773, 5768.
Context and Strategy:
Friday’s session was a strong downside trend day (open-to-close selling) with limited support reactions. As we often see, sharp sell-offs like Friday are often followed by their counterpart: the short squeeze and the question of whether we’ll recover a significant portion of the decline shouldn't be asked. While the timing of such events is unpredictable (further downside is always possible), they typically happen when a major resistance level is reclaimed, which I’ll cover here. For now, with bears still holding control, any attempts to buy at support levels carry the high risk of trying to catch a falling knife, which i often talk about how risky those are alone. On a strong trend day like Friday when bears are in control, all supports - by definition of being a trend day to the downside - will fail. They may react, they may produce a quick level to level bounce, but typically they will generally all fail. This will remain true on Monday until we recover some major resistances. A failed breakdown of Friday’s low (5878) could spark a potential short squeeze, but once again, unless a significant resistance level is reclaimed, all longs should be treated with high caution.
The next support magnet below Friday’s lows is 5843-46, with 5828 and 5806 as deeper downside levels if selling persists. Patience is key, particularly in a downtrend context like this.
Key Levels:
1. Friday’s Low (5878): Critical for both bulls and bears. Watch for a potential flush below this level, ideally down to 5871, followed by a reclaim that could trigger a short squeeze.
2. 5886-88: Heavily traded on Friday and no longer fresh. Safer to wait for a failed breakdown or another deeper level to engage.
3. 5864: A possible bounce zone but still considered high-risk.
4. 5843-46: Strong support below. If selling accelerates, this level offers better odds for a reaction.
5. 5828 & 5806: Major levels for any extended sell.
Resistances:
• Major: 5907-10, 5945-50, 5961, 5980, 5998-6002, 6009, 6066, 6080-82, 6103, 6131, 6141, 6152.
• Minor: 5899, 5917, 5928, 5934, 5935, 5943, 5947, 5957, 5967, 5972, 5975, 5993, 6014, 6019, 6027, 6032, 6038, 6045, 6050, 6058, 6071, 6092.
Bull Case:
• Bulls need to reclaim 5907-10 to show any meaningful recovery effort. A reclaim here could set up a bounce toward 5948-50 or 5961 for a back-test.
• Ideal setup: A dip to 5871 or below early on, forming a failed breakdown of Friday’s low, followed by basing and a push back above 5907-10. This could trigger an easy short squeeze targeting higher major resistances.
• Without a reclaim of 5961, any upside remains corrective, and the "short the pop" sentiment is still in charge.
Bear Case:
• Bears remain in control and will likely defend resistances near 5907-10 or 5948-50 if price retraces. These are logical zones for fresh shorts to initiate.
• Continuation selling begins with a breakdown below 5878. Watch for traps, as 80% of breakdowns tend to fail. If there’s no meaningful recovery, selling could extend toward 5843-46 or 5828.
• Preferred short entry: A failed bounce near resistance (5948-50 or 5961) or after a structural breakdown below 5878.
Summary for Monday:
• Expect potential bounce attempts to test breakdown zones like 5907-10 or 5948-50, but any upside remains corrective unless bulls reclaim 5961.
• A flush below Friday’s low (5878) may trigger a failed breakdown setup, sparking a short squeeze.
• Below 5878, next support magnets are 5864, 5843-46, and 5828
• Exercise caution with longs; focus on reactions at key levels. Shorts remain favorable until resistance zones are reclaimed.
BRIEFING Week #46 : Beware of trend ReversalsHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users.
Kindly,
Phil
UltraPro QQQ. Trump-a-rally gives no light for leveraged betsIt's gone 10 days or so, since Mr. Trump has secured a win over his Democrat-rival Kamala Harris in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as it declared by the Associated Press.
Since that, a lot of stocks soared in a meme-style mode, while Bitcoin clears $93,000 and Dogecoin soared amid Trump-fueled crypto rally.
The main graph is for UltraPro QQQ NASDAQ:TQQQ and it indicates, that major 82-Dollars resistance for leveraged bets on Tech sector has not been broken yet.
👉 NASDAQ:QQQ is a traditional ETF that tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index, suitable for long-term investors seeking broad exposure to tech-focused stocks.
👉 NASDAQ:TQQQ is a leveraged ETF that aims to deliver triple (3x) the daily returns of the Nasdaq-100 Index, making it only suitable for short-term traders.
Since US dollar interest rates are still near multi year highs and Powell says the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates.. all of that means Trump-a-rally gives no light for leveraged bets (yet).
Potentially everything can be clear in January, 2025 only.
GL y'all. Cheers, @Pandorra 😎
S&P 500: Bearish Momentum Below 5927 S&P 500
Technical Analysis
The price dropped perfectly as we mentioned in the previous idea
so now still has a bearish volume to get 5891 and 5863 as long as it trades below 5927
otherwise, it should close 4h candle above 5928 to be bullish till 5952 and 5972
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5927
Resistance Levels: 5952, 5972, 5989
Support Levels: 5891, 5863, 5833
Trend Outlook:
- Bearish Trend while below 5927
- Bullish trend if break 5939
previous idea