S&P500 Critical short-term crossroads.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Up since for the entirety of July and right now is ahead of important crossroads. It either breaks out above the pattern or pulls back to price a new Higher Low.
Based on the 4H CCI and the similarities with the June 24 - 25 consolidation, there are higher probabilities to break upwards. That fractal reached the 2.0 Fibonacci extension after it broke out. We will wait for confirmation and if it's delivered, we will buy the break-out and target 6460 (just below Fib 2.0 ext).
Until then, being so close to the Channel Up top, makes a solid short opportunity targeting a Higher Low (bottom). The previous one was priced exactly on the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) so that's our target or 6250 if it comes earlier.
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💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
SPX (S&P 500 Index)
21/07/25 Weekly OutlookLast weeks high: $123,220.24
Last weeks low: $115,718.15
Midpoint: $119,469.19
New BTC ($123,220) & SPX ($6,315) ATH last week! We're really seeing progress being made on all fronts now, bitcoin saw its sixth week of net inflows into BTC ETFs ($2.39B).
The week began strong hitting the new ATH very early and then settled into a tight range to cool off. Altcoins however surged in relation to BTC to break out of HTF downtrends and begin to make up lost ground. One of the beneficiary's of this price movement has been ETH, breaking out from a multi year downtrend against BTC and hitting $3,800 in its USD pair.
For this week I do expect much of the same for BTC as momentum is with altcoins for now. However, as those altcoins reach HTF resistance levels it becomes very important for Bitcoins chop to be accumulation for the next leg up and not distribution for the way down. With so few pullbacks the threat of a sudden correction is present but the probability drops should BTC look to press higher with strong demand.
The ECB Interest rate decision takes place on Thursday but no changes to the 2.15% rate is forecast. In terms of news there are no planned upsets that I can see.
Good luck this week everybody!
SPX: Banks beat, stocks peakThe US equity markets remained relatively resilient this week, despite ongoing concerns about trade policy developments. After last week’s slight retreat from its all-time high, the S&P 500 resumed its upward momentum early in the week, continuing to hover near record levels. The index reached a new highest level of 6,315 on Friday before pulling back slightly, closing the week at 6.296.
Bank earrings were in focus of investors during the previous week. Overall, Q2 reports from major U.S. banks showed resilience — better-than-expected earnings, strong interest income, and robust capital actions. So far, the finance sector has seen Q2 earnings rise around 13% y/y and 3,4% revenue growth. In addition, a stress test posted by Fed underpin confidence as all major banks, including JPMorgan and Citi showing resilience also under potential stress conditions. However, both bankers and investors held a cautious tone on macro/public policy risk.
Investors' confidence was additionally boosted by better than expected US macro data posted during the previous week. The inflation rate in June was 0,3% for the month and 2,7% on a yearly basis. At the same time, retail sales beat market expectations with an increase of 0,6% in June. As per analysts reports, currently 27 stocks included in the S&P 500 are trading at the all time highest levels. The ADM company, which is well known for producing Coca Cola, had a drop in the value of shares of 2% after the US President requested from the company to use real cane sugar in their popular drink.
From July 23st a composition of companies included in the S&P 500 index will be changed. A crypto company Block will be included, while the company Hess will be excluded from the index. Shares of the Blok surged by 10% on Friday, after the release of the news.
TESLA 400 BY END OF YEAR !! 5 REASONS !!!
1. **Strong Earnings and Revenue Growth**
Tesla has a track record of exceeding earnings expectations. If the company reports robust financial results in Q3 and Q4—driven by higher vehicle deliveries and growth in its energy storage business—investors are likely to gain confidence. This could push the stock price upward as Tesla demonstrates its ability to scale profitably.
2. **Advancements in Autonomous Driving**
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology is a game-changer in the making. If Tesla achieves significant progress toward Level 4 or 5 autonomy—where vehicles can operate with little to no human intervention—it could position the company as a leader in transportation innovation. Such a breakthrough would likely excite investors and drive the stock price higher.
3. **Battery Technology Innovation**
Tesla is working on developing cheaper, longer-lasting batteries, which could lower production costs and improve profit margins. If the company announces advancements in battery tech—such as improvements from its Battery Day initiatives or new manufacturing processes—it could signal a competitive edge, boosting the stock to $400.
4. **Global Expansion and Production Increases**
Tesla’s new Gigafactories in Texas and Berlin are ramping up production, while potential market entries like India loom on the horizon. Increased output and access to new customers signal strong growth potential. If Tesla successfully scales its operations, investors may see this as a reason to push the stock price toward $400.
5. **Favorable Market Trends and Government Policies**
The global shift toward sustainable energy and electric vehicles (EVs) is accelerating, supported by government incentives and regulations favoring clean energy. If EV adoption continues to rise and policies provide a tailwind—such as subsidies or stricter emissions standards—Tesla, as an EV leader, could see increased demand and a higher stock valuation.
While reaching $400 by year-end is ambitious, Tesla’s strong brand, innovative edge, and leadership under Elon Musk could make it achievable. That said, risks like market volatility and growing competition from other EV makers could pose challenges. If these five factors align, however, Tesla’s stock has a solid shot at hitting that target.
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 21–25, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 21–25, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🏦 Fed Chair Powell Speaks — Markets Key Into Tone
Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell’s Jackson Hole speech is the week’s centerpiece. Markets will be closely listening for clues on inflation strategy, rate-cut timing, and sensitivity to geopolitical inflation drivers like tariffs.
📦 Tariff Deadlines Gain Spotlight
Multiple tariff deadlines are set this week for targeted trade partners including the EU, Mexico, Canada, Japan, South Korea, and Thailand. Any new announcements or extensions could trigger volatility in trade-exposed sectors.
🛢️ Oil Market Mixed Signals
Brent crude prices have stabilized near mid-$70s, but OPEC+ discussions regarding supply extensions and global growth concerns continue to inject uncertainty into energy-linked equities.
📈 Big Tech Earnings Kick Off
The “Magnificent Seven” tech giants begin reporting: Nvidia leads on Tuesday, followed by Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta later in the week. Expect significant sentiment swings based on forward commentary.
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Monday, July 21
Quiet session ahead of a packed week of speeches and data.
📅 Tuesday, July 22
8:30 AM ET – Existing Home Sales (June):
Measures signed contracts on previously owned homes—a key housing indicator.
After Market Close – Nvidia Q2 Earnings:
Market will watch guidance and China commentary.
📅 Wednesday, July 23
8:30 AM ET – Leading Economic Indicators (June):
An early gauge of U.S. economic momentum.
📅 Thursday, July 24
8:30 AM ET – Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims:
Labor-market health indicator.
📅 Friday, July 25
8:30 AM ET – Durable Goods Orders (June):
Signals demand for long-lasting goods, often driven by business spending.
8:30 AM ET – New Home Sales (June):
Follows existing home data for housing sector insight.
4:00 PM ET – Fed Chair Powell Speech at Jackson Hole:
Expect commentary on inflation, growth, and rate-path clarity.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This content is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #earnings #housing #durablegoods #JacksonHole #technicalanalysis
Earnings Heat Up - 6300 and 6200 SPX Key Levels RemainMarket Update
SPX Key Levels
-SPX poked 6300 Tuesday, Thursday, and poked higher Friday (but settled back to 6300)
-6200 support remains a key level
-6050/6000/5800 next floor levels, I'll be looking for dips
I can see the market slowly (and I mean SLOWLY) grinding higher but preparing for a
reasonable seasonal selloff through end of July into end of September window
July 28-August 1 is a monster week in the markets
-Megacap Earnings (MAG7 Tue/Wed/Thu)
-Wed July 30 - FOMC (Pause expected but Powell's Press Conference is important)
-Friday August 1 - Non-Farm Payroll, Tariff Deadline
I'm hitting fresh YTD highs so I'm not complaining about this melt-up and grind, I'm simply wanting to allocate positions and add to my positions at better levels and with a slightly
higher VIX to help take advantage of the expected move being greater than the actual move
Have a great weekend and thank you watching!!!
Bear-Trap armed: Gold ticks 4 / 5 boxes - waiting for the spark1️⃣ Why the 2020 déjà-vu is EVEN louder
2025 (now) 2020 (pre-rally)
TradingView ideas still bearish 💬
> 70 % 60 % bearish
Managed-money net-longs ≈ 115 k
-35 % from Apr. –25 % from peak
+ $741 m PM-ETF inflow Record IN-flows
G/S ratio 87 (< 90) Fell to 95
S&P keeps making highs Ditto
2️⃣ What’s still different
Real 10-y TIPS yield +0.7 % vs -1 % in 2020 → smaller monetary tail-wind.
Gold is already at an infl-adj. record – expect a short & sharp squeeze, not a fresh multi-year super-cycle (yet).
3️⃣ Checklist – updated
Signal Status 18 Jul Comment
———————————————————
Gold DAILY close ≥ $3 200–3 250 YES – $3 354 ✔
G/S ratio < 90 YES – 87 ✔
CFTC net-longs < 150 k YES – ~115 k ✔
ETF flows turn positive. YES – $741 m ✔
Equity stress (VIX > 25 or SPX −5 %) NOT YET – VIX 16.5 ✖
4 / 5 boxes = 99 % primed. One spark missing.
4️⃣ What could light the fuse
Date Potential trigger Why it matters
22 Jul Mega-tech Q2 earnings (NVDA/AMD) Any guidance miss → SPX wobble
30 Jul FOMC Fed holds but sounds dovish USD dump + yield spike risk
1 Aug Trump s “reciprocal” duties Imported-inflation scare → VIX pop
Early Aug. DXY crashes < 96 in < 5 days. Disorderly USD slide = funding stress
Hit ≥ 2 of: DXY < 96, VIX > 25, SPX -5 % or HY-spread +75 bp → final ✔.
Bottom line
The bear-trap thesis aged well: sentiment, positioning, ETFs, and G/S ratio have already clicked bullish.
Only equity-market stress is missing. A fast USD slide or a tariff shock right after a neutral Fed is the most likely detonator.
Stay nimble: Collect premium inside $3 250-3 400 while volatility sleeps – but keep alarms on VIX 25 and DXY 96. One red headline could still launch the squeeze.
Disclaimer: Educational opinion, not investment advice. Futures & CFD trading is risky – do your own research and consult a professional.
1 minute ago
Bear-Trap armed: Gold ticks 4 / 5 boxes - waiting for the spark
1️⃣ Why the 2020 déjà-vu is EVEN louder
2025 (now) 2020 (pre-rally)
TradingView ideas still bearish 💬
> 70 % 60 % bearish
Managed-money net-longs ≈ 115 k
(-35 % from Apr) –25 % from peak
+ $741 m PM-ETF inflow, first after months Record IN-flows
G/S ratio 87 (< 90) Fell to 95
S&P keeps making highs. Ditto
2️⃣ What’s still different
Real 10-y TIPS yield +0.7 % vs -1 % in 2020 → smaller monetary tail-wind.
Gold is already at an infl-adj. record – expect a short & sharp squeeze, not a fresh multi-year super-cycle (yet).
3️⃣ Checklist – updated
Signal Status 18 Jul Comment
———————————————————
Gold DAILY close ≥ $3 200–3 250 YES – $3 354 ✔
G/S ratio < 90 YES – 87 ✔
CFTC net-longs < 150 k YES – ~115 k ✔
ETF flows turn positive. YES – $741 m ✔
Equity stress (VIX > 25 or SPX −5 %) NOT YET – VIX 16.5 ✖
4 / 5 boxes = 99 % primed. One spark missing.
4️⃣ What could light the fuse
Date Potential trigger Why it matters
22 Jul Mega-tech Q2 earnings (NVDA/AMD) Any guidance miss → SPX wobble
30 Jul FOMC Fed holds but sounds dovish USD dump + yield spike risk
1 Aug Trump s “reciprocal” duties Imported-inflation scare → VIX pop
Early Aug. DXY crashes < 96 in < 5 days. Disorderly USD slide = funding stress
Hit ≥ 2 of: DXY < 96, VIX > 25, SPX -5 % or HY-spread +75 bp → final ✔.
Bottom line
The bear-trap thesis aged well: sentiment, positioning, ETFs, and G/S ratio have already clicked bullish.
Only equity-market stress is missing. A fast USD slide or a tariff shock right after a neutral Fed is the most likely detonator.
Stay nimble: Collect premium inside $3 250-3 400 while volatility sleeps – but keep alarms on VIX 25 and DXY 96. One red headline could still launch the squeeze.
Disclaimer: Educational opinion, not investment advice. Futures & CFD trading is risky – do your own research and consult a professional.
S&P500 (CASH500) (SPX500) SHORT - Head and shoulders 30minRisk/reward = 3.3
Entry price = 6314.8
Stop loss price = 6318.4
Take profit level 1 (50%) = 6301.3
Take profit level 2 (50%) = 6297.5
Waiting on validation from a few other variables.
For example, waiting for the current 30min candle to close in range.
Letssss goooooo
SPX500 Eyes Further Upside After Breaking to New HighSPX500 | Technical Overview
The price continued its bullish momentum after stabilizing above the 6283 support level, as anticipated. It has since posted a new all-time high (ATH) and is currently aiming for the next key resistance at 6341. A confirmed breakout above this level may open the path toward 6393.
On the downside, a break and sustained close below 6283 would shift the structure bearish in the short term, potentially targeting 6223.
Pivot line: 6283
Resistance: 6341 – 6393
Support: 6247 – 6223
previous idea:
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 19, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 19, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🏢 U.S. Corp Buybacks Set to Propel Stocks
Citadel Securities expects U.S. companies to repurchase roughly $1 trillion of stock in 2025. With the blackout period ending in August, buybacks—historically strong in July, the stock market’s best month—could bolster valuations
⚖️ Fed Independence Debate Intensifies
President Trump’s continued criticism of Chair Powell has already weakened confidence in Federal Reserve autonomy. The fallout shows up in a weaker dollar, elevated Treasury yields, and rising inflation expectations—though stocks have remained resilient
🇺🇸 Immigration Rollback Sparks Economic Concern
The rescinding of Temporary Protected Status for ~900,000 immigrants could remove up to 1.1 million workers from the labor force. Analysts warn of potential stagflation risks, with GDP growth potentially down 0.3–0.4 percentage points and labor-market tightening ahead
💵 Massive T-Bill Issuance Incoming
Following the debt-ceiling deal, the Treasury plans over $1 trillion in T-bill issuance in the next 18 months. Money-market funds are expected to absorb much of it, influencing short-term rates and cash-market dynamics
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Friday, July 19:
8:30 AM ET – Initial Jobless Claims
Weekly figure on new unemployment filings—a real-time indicator of labor-market resilience.
8:30 AM ET – Existing Home Sales (June)
Measures signed contracts on previously owned homes; key for gauging housing-market health.
All Day Events:
Ongoing corporate buybacks entering open window
Treasury auctions and T-bill issuance updates
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #monetarypolicy #debt #housing #labor #technicalanalysis
Elliott Wave Analysis: SPY Poised To Extend Higher In Bullish SeElliott Wave sequence in SPY (S&P 500 ETF) suggest bullish sequence in progress started from 4.07.2025 low. It expects two or few more highs to extend the impulse sequence from April-2025, while dips remain above 6.23.2025 low. SPY ended the daily corrective pullback in 3 swings at 480 low on 4.07.2025 low from February-2025 peak. Above there, it favors upside in bullish impulse sequence as broke above February-2025 high. Currently, it favors wave 3 of (1) & expect one more push higher from 7.16.2025 low in to 630.31 – 651.1 area before correcting in wave 4. In 4-hour, it placed 1 at 596.05 high, 2 at 573.26 low as shallow connector & extend higher in 3. Within 3, it placed ((i)) at 606.40 high, ((ii)) at 591.89 low, ((iii)) at 627.97 high & ((iv)) at 618.05 low.
In 1-hour above ((ii)) low of 591.89 low, it ended (i) at 605.96 high, (ii) at 603.17 low, (iii) at 626.87 high as extended move, (iv) at 620 low & (v) as ((iii)) at 627.97 high. Wave ((iv)) ended in 3 swing pullback as shallow connector slightly below 0.236 Fibonacci retracement of ((iii)). Within ((iii)), it ended (a) at 619.8 low, (b) at 624.12 high & (c) at 618.05 low on 7.16.2025 low (this week). Above there, it favors rally in ((v)) of 3 targeting in to 630.31 – 651.1 area before correcting in 4. Within ((v)), it placed (i) at 624.73 high, (ii) at 623.08 low & favors upside in (iii) of ((v)). We like to buy the pullback in clear 3, 7 or 11 swings correction at extreme area in 4 and later in (2) pullback, once finished (1) in 5 swings.
Trade Journal: Missed Morning Move & Trading Into New Highs07/17/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis
EOD accountability report: +447.50
Sleep: 5 hours
Overall health: My health ring is signaling that my body isn't well the last few days.
VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm)
— 8:53 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
— 12:17 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (triple sell signal)
— 1:12 PM VXAlgo ES X3 Sell Signal
— 1:40 PM VXAlgo NQ X1DD Buy Signal
What’s are some news or takeaway from today? and What major news or event impacted the market today?
Today was a bit of a rough trading day, I missed the morning move and was a bit hesitant to make trades.
Saw a lot of MM positioning high up around 6340s and wasn't sure where to get a good entry. Wanted to go in at the MOB but they never went down there.
Sell signals were not as effective today because MM wanted to make ATH but i couldn't figure out the reasoning.
News
S&P 500 ENDS AT A NEW RECORD HIGH, VIX FALLS AS STOCKS RALLY ON SOLID EARNINGS, STRONG ECONOMIC DATA
What are the critical support levels to watch?
--> Above 6300= Bullish, Under 6290= Bearish
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
SP500 ES Weekly Recap | ATH Deviation → Pullback or Powell Pump?Overview:
ES made a new all-time high last week, sweeping the previous high with strong momentum.
However, the move ended up being a deviation, and the price quickly reversed — suggesting short-term exhaustion.
Bearish Scenario (Baseline):
🔻 Rejection from ATH
🔻 Possible retracement targets:
12H Swing Low (turquoise line)
Weekly Fair Value Gap (purple zone)
I believe a pullback into those levels could provide bullish continuation setups for new highs. I’ll look for LTF confirmation once price reaches those zones.
Bullish Scenario (Catalyst-Driven):
🚨 If Fed Chair Powell resigns this week (a circulating macro rumor), the market may not wait for retracement.
This could lead to an aggressive breakout, driving ES and risk assets straight into new ATHs again.
Plan:
✅ Watch for LTF confirmation after pullback
✅ Stay open to both scenarios
✅ Focus on HTF bullish structure as long as key levels hold
‘Everything Rally’ in Full Swing. What About Tariffs & Earnings?It’s official: we’re witnessing one of those rare, confounding moments when nearly every big risk-on thing is screaming ATH! (All-Time High, for those who haven’t worn out that abbreviation on X this month).
Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD blew past $122,000 on Monday — a turbo rally that made anyone who stepped away to brew coffee rethink their life choices.
Meanwhile, Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA ? It didn’t just approach the $4 trillion milestone — it showed up, took the crown as the world’s most valuable company , and made the Nasdaq Composite NASDAQ:IXIC pop a fresh record close for dessert.
And the S&P 500 SP:SPX ? The broadest slice of US equities did its part too, hitting a record high last week, despite the world’s loudest tariff chatter from Trump 2.0. So, what gives?
💎 Bitcoin: Too Fast to Chart
Let’s start with the fire-breathing dragon. Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD rocketed to $122,500 on Monday morning, bruising all those short sellers and juicing up the memes. The OG coin now has a market cap above $2.3 trillion — bigger than most economies, enough to make gold bugs break into cold sweats. (True, it did pare back some of those gains to float at $119,000 Thursday morning.)
What’s fueling it? Institutional FOMO. Forget diamond hands — big money managers, ETF behemoths , and corporates are scooping up every sat they can find.
When you see that, plus macro tailwinds — a weaker dollar, simmering inflation that nudges the Fed toward cuts — the rocket fuel writes itself. But we all know what traders really want to know: is $125,000 next? Short answer: if momentum holds, you bet. Long answer: mind the next Fed move and the tariff chess match.
🎯 Nvidia: From GPUs to GDPs
If you thought Bitcoin’s wild run was the only headline, look again. The real flex this month came from Jensen Huang’s chip juggernaut. Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA didn’t just break a record — it basically invented a new category for corporate mega-caps.
The world’s biggest semiconductor firm hit the $4 trillion mark — the first company ever to do so. And this isn’t some overnight fad. Back in 2019, Nvidia crossed $100 billion for the first time on the back of crypto mining booms.
Five years later, it’s stacked on 4,000% gains, riding the AI hype like it’s a permanent bull market. Governments, hyperscalers, cloud titans — they’re all shoving billions at Huang’s AI chips.
💻 Nasdaq: AI, Chips, Crypto — Party On
The Nasdaq Composite NASDAQ:IXIC logged yet another record close , up about 7.5% on the year so far.
Just three months ago, this index looked battered — trade war threats, tariff rants, sticky inflation. Who’s doing the heavy lifting? The Magnificent Seven, mostly. But it’s Nvidia’s chart that’s turned this whole index into a de facto AI ETF.
Is it healthy? That depends. As long as earnings season doesn’t break the dream — and there’s no rug-pull from the Fed — traders are letting the momentum do its thing.
🏦 S&P 500: The Record Chaser
What about the S&P 500 SP:SPX — the broadest barometer of America’s corporate muscle? It rose to set its own record high last week before coming down on Friday on renewed tariff jitters.
The Wall Street darling looks less explosive than its tech-packed peer, the Nasdaq. But it’s still up nearly 7% year-to-date — and up 26% from the April dip when tariffs spooked everyone out of their leveraged longs. Now? It’s back in record territory, brushing aside GDP contraction and inflation that won’t quit.
Why? Because the market is forward-looking. Tariffs may sting, but when the Fed hints at cuts and Trump sticks to his MAGA narrative, risk assets catch a bid.
🧨 What About Those Tariffs, Though?
Speaking of tariffs, let’s not pretend they’re not looming. Trump threatened over the weekend to ramp up levies on EU goods to 30% starting August 1 if no new deal emerges. Canada got an earful too: 35% on certain Canadian exports — and Ottawa announced a $21 billion tit-for-tat.
The “pause” on reciprocal tariffs ends in a few weeks. So, is this noise or real risk?
For now, markets are calling the bluff. Investors have tuned out the saber-rattling, choosing to front-run the Fed’s next move instead. If tariffs spark a deeper trade war, stocks may get a reality check. Until then, the melt-up rules.
🔮 What’s Next? Eyes on Earnings
Earnings season is around the corner (be sure to follow the Earnings Calendar ), and you can bet every fund manager is watching Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA , Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT , and the rest of the Mag 7 for cracks in the AI gold rush.
If the big names keep printing double-digit revenue growth, investors should be happy. But any hint of deceleration, cautious guidance, or margin pressure could slam the brakes on this record run.
Your turn : Do you see this melt-up stretching into the second half of the year? Or are we due for a rude awakening once the earnings calls roll in? Drop your take below!
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 17, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 17, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🇮🇳 India–U.S. Inflation Divergence Dampens Dollar
India’s June retail inflation tumbled to a six-year low, while U.S. CPI hit its fastest pace since February—driven by tariff effects. This divergence is weakening the U.S. dollar against the rupee, pushing down dollar‑rupee forward premiums
📜 Treasury to Ramp Up T-Bill Issuance
Following the recent debt-ceiling increase, the U.S. Treasury plans to issue over $1 trillion in T-bills over the next 18 months. Money-market funds, flush with cash, are expected to absorb the supply, which could influence short-dated yields
💱 Dollar Eases Amid Fed-Related Volatility
Headline news that President Trump “highly unlikely” to fire Fed Chair Powell, coupled with stable PPI data, calmed markets. The dollar dipped slightly after earlier turmoil, while gold and bonds saw modest gains
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Thursday, July 17:
(No major U.S. economic releases)
Markets will track T-bill issuance plans, dollar forward dynamics, and statements from the Treasury and Fed regarding debt and rate strategy.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This is for educational purposes only—not financial advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #dollar #tbills #inflation #Fed #technicalanalysis
BRIEFING Week #29-30 : BTC stalling, ETH & then Alts ?Here's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users.
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SPXUSDT Forms Classic Cup and HandleSPXUSDT daily chart is showcasing a strong Cup and Handle breakout with high volume, a classic bullish continuation pattern. After a well-formed, rounded base, price has cleanly broken above the neckline resistance around the $1.80 level, supported by strong momentum and a sharp bullish candle. This breakout signals the potential for a significant upside move, with the next leg likely to push toward much higher price levels.
SP:SPX MEXC:SPXUSDT
SPX Forms New All-Time High, Price Nears $2.00COINEX:SPXUSDT price has surged by 21.75% over the last 24 hours , reaching a new all-time high (ATH) of $1.84 . At the time of writing, SPX is trading at $1.83, showing promising signs of further upward movement. The altcoin's strong performance reflects growing investor interest and market optimism.
The Ichimoku Cloud, which lies beneath the candlesticks, signals that bullish momentum is currently prevailing for $COINEX:SPXUSDT. This technical indicator suggests that the altcoin could continue its ascent, potentially breaching the $2.00 level in the near future . If the trend persists, SPX could set new price milestones.
However, if COINEX:SPXUSDT experiences significant selling pressure from investors, the altcoin could face a correction. A drop below $1.55 would indicate a shift in momentum and potentially erase some of the recent gains. A failure to maintain key support levels could lead to further downside risks.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Special Update : BUCKLE UPThis video is a special update for all TradingView members. I felt I needed to share this information and present the case that I believe poses the most significant risk to your financial future - and it's happening right now.
Several weeks ago, I identified a very unique mirror setup in the SPY and kept an eye on how it was playing out. I needed to see confirmation of this setup before I could say it had any real likelihood of playing out as I expected.
As of today, I'm suggesting that we now have excellent confirmation that the US/Global markets are about to enter a deep consolidation phase, lasting through the rest of 2025 and possibly into 2026 and early 2027.
The interesting thing about this price pattern/structure is that it is almost exactly the same as the 2003-2007 structure, which I believe is the origin of this mirror setup. Almost down to the exact type of price bars/patterns I'm seeing.
Many of you are already aware that I've been calling for a critical low cycle in the SPY on July 18 for many months. What you may not realize is that the pattern is based on Weekly price data. The July 18 cycle low can have a span of +/- 1-3 weeks related to when and how the cycle low pattern plays out.
Watch this video. If you have any questions, message me or comment.
I'm still here, doing my best to identify and unlock the secrets of price action and to help as many traders as I can.
Price is the Ultimate Indicator.
Get some.
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S&P500 Accumulation almost over. New rally begins.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a 3-month Channel Up pattern, within which, it's been replicating almost the same structure. This involves an aggressive Bullish Leg Phase (dotted Channel Up), followed by a correction/ Accumulation Phase (blue Channels), which eventually leads to the new Bullish Leg.
The 1D RSI fractals among those patterns are similar and right now it seems that we are about to complete the latest Accumulation Phase. Having completed a 1D Golden Cross 2 weeks ago, the time-frame looks more bullish than ever and as long as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) holds, we expect at least a +5.68% rise (the minimum of the previous Bullish Legs), targeting 6550.
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